NOTE: Middle East Eye just published my latest piece on Bibi Netanyahu’s multi-billion dollar weapons shopping list, which he’s given Trump in return for permitting sale of U.S. F-35s to UAE. Please give it a read and promote on social media.
GREAT news! New government of Sudan, which is making great progress, agreed to pay $335 MILLION to U.S. terror victims and families. Once deposited, I will lift Sudan from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list. At long last, JUSTICE for the American people and BIG step for Sudan!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 19, 2020
Not so fast. Yes, Trump announced today that Sudan would be removed from the U.S. state terror list. But you’ll note that Trump conditioned delisting on receipt of $335-million in “reparations” for the attack on U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. Sudan, as anyone with any sense knows, is essentially bankrupt. It doesn’t have $335-million lying around somewhere to throw away. It barely has an economy and has no imminent prospects of economic growth that would enable payment of this claim.
But UAE has already promised Sudan $800-million if it normalizes with Israel (the Sudanese laughed in their face and said they need a minimum of $3.5-billion in aid to make a dent in their miserable economic situation). Presumably, an impoverished Sudan could have its debt paid by UAE. Which would be a clever charade enabling everyone to save face and get what they really want…except the Palestinians who, as usual, get left holding the (empty) bag.
Everyone who has been sentient the past 3 1/2 years knows Trump is a blowhard prone to invent “facts” out of whole cloth. So whether Sudan is prepared to do what he claims is an open question. In fact, the civilian prime minister has said just the opposite:
The top civilian official in the coalition, Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, has repeatedly urged the U.S. administration not to link Sudan’s removal from the list to normalization with Israel.
Hamdok argued that the transitional government does not have the mandate to decide on foreign policy issues of this magnitude.
It appears today that he’s changed his tune and fallen into line with his military allies in the governing council, who’ve salivated at the prospect of billions in military and economic aid from their Gulf brothers. He tweeted:
Thank you so much, President Trump! We very much look forward to your official notification to Congress rescinding the designation of Sudan as a state-sponsor of terrorism, which has cost Sudan too much. https://t.co/GeScTPfb0k
— Abdalla Hamdok (@SudanPMHamdok) October 19, 2020
Trump and Hamdok do seem to be at loggerheads here though. Trump wants cash on the barrel. Hamdok wants the merchandise in his possession before paying. That’s a pretty big divide. It’s also worth noting that neither leader mentioned Israel or the “N”-word in their statements. Sudan has previously said it refused to condition aid or delisting on normalization. Whether there is a tacit or secret annex committing Sudan eventually to normalize some time after the delisting isn’t clear. If that happens, then Sudan will become the third Arab state to betray Palestine for Esau’s mess of pottage. For those who don’t recall, Jacob cheated his brother into giving up his inheritance as the first-born child in exchange for a mess of pottage he prepared for the starving hunter.
Cooking the Books: New Normalization Poll Slants Results Favorable to UAE
In light of yesterday’s post which noted strong opposition in the Arab world to normalization, it’s worth noting a contrary voice. Arab-American pollster, James Zogby, reported (pdf) diametrically opposite results in his own polling. Israel HaYom, closely allied with the ruling far-right Likud, led with this headline: Poll finds growing support for ties with Israel in some Arab countries.
If you read last night’s post which documented widespread opposition to normalization in the Arab world, Zogby’s result fly in the face of the polls I offered. He reports that while majorities in four of five Arab countries polled opposed normalization, support for it hovered in the range of 40%. This is astonishing since the polls I mentioned in yesterday’s post showed nearly 90% opposition. So something’s gotta give.
Gaza journalist, Hind Khoudary, prepared an analysis of the Zogby poll which exposed some serious weaknesses of methodology, and an ideological bias.
It’s not coincidental that the first media outlets to report the poll were The National, a UAE-based publication closely tied to the ruling regime, Sky News Arabia, which is co-owned by a leading member of the ruling family of Abu Dhabi, and Israel HaYom, owned by Sheldon Adelson and allied with Israel’s ruling far-right Likud. Further, one of the first pieces Zogby wrote announcing his “confounding” set of results was in Gulf News, another UAE-based publication.
As a reader pointed out, the 2019 version of this poll was commissioned and funded by the UAE foreign ministry. Since the poll is done annually, one can assume the 2020 iteration was also funded by UAE. For some reason, Zogby hasn’t revealed that in the full poll document.
Given these sources which first promoted the poll, it seems no accident that the poll results would affirm the decision by the UAE ruling family to normalize relations with Israel. Indeed, in the poll the only country showing majority support for normalizing was UAE (56%). The next highest was Egypt which found only 42% in favor.
It also appears to be no accident that Zogby’s poll broke down in minute detail the motivations of those who favored normalization (devoting two of the three pages of the survey dealing with the subject), but ignored the reasoning of those who oppose it. The purported client isn’t interested in those who oppose UAE’s policy or their reasons for doing so.
The defense of his polling published in Gulf News exposes some of the questionable assumptions which underlay the survey itself. Zogby seems to believe that softening of attitudes among Arab states toward Israel will moderate views amongst Israeli Jews. In fact, he makes this rather astonishing and unsupported claim:
There should be the recognition given to the fact that the UAE initiative did impact Israeli public opinion and policy.
How did it impact such views? The pollster claims that when Israeli Jews read an op ed by UAE’s ambassador to the U.S., which warned them that they could not have relations with his country if they annexed the Occupied Territories, they hesitated. One must ask? Is that all there is? Is normalization a cool thing because Israelis will agree not to annex the West Bank? Is that what all these decades of Arab rejection of peace with Israel has meant? To get an impression that Israelis might soften slightly their oppression of Palestinians by easing up on annexation?
Zogby offers more bromides about the ameliorative impact of normalization on Palestinians:
It may very well be possible that the UAE will have some leverage they can use to not only stop annexation, but to alter Israeli behaviours.
This statement is so weak that it’s hard to take it seriously. What leverage will UAE have in the face of a vehement ultra-nationalist Israeli juggernaut that has bested American presidents for decades? What can it threaten? What can it withhold from Israel to make it fall into line? How precisely could it alter Israeli behaviors?
Zogby’s role here seems to be to whitewash normalization. To rebut charges that this process represents an abandonment of the Palestinians, while arguing that it does just the opposite. His defense suggests that contrary to the view that Arab normalizers are betraying Palestine, they are actually defending and protecting it from the ravages of Israeli aggression.
Even more mystifying to me was why Mondoweiss published Zogby’s defense of his poll. In fact, they republished the same piece he published in Gulf News without noting it was a republication. Given that MW is anti-Zionist and Zogby is clearly in favor of a two-state solution, what gives?? Did anyone there read his piece before publishing it?
Another final oddity of the poll methodology was that Zogby only polled Jewish Israelis. He excluded Palestinian citizens of Israel, who compose 20% of its population. While there may be reasons in such polls to divide polling into Jewish and Palestinian-Israeli segments, there should never be polling concerning Israeli national issues that excludes either group. Doing so, renders the results completely biased and incomplete (at best).
I tweeted to Zogby asking who commissioned and paid for the poll. In the interest of transparency, this is critical data. If he responds I will add that information here.
Zogby’s poll was taken in September 2019, well before the UAE and Bahrain normalized under the ‘Abramic Accords’.
Zogby was so shocked by the findings, that he even re-polled, and asked a more open-ended question in order to ascertain ‘why’ normalization might be desirable.
The results of re-polling remained the same.
@ Wunsch: I don’t know where you’re getting that poll date. But the full poll results linked in my post clearly show the poll was administered in June-July 2020 and all the media reports were published in the past few months.
Further, it doesn’t matter whether he went back and repolled. He cooked the books on the poll. If you have a client who wants a certain result and you tailor the questions toward that result you can repoll till your heart’s content and will get the same result.
UAE and Israel agree on visa-free travel and $3 billion Abraham Fund
What has a recently established fund related to recovery after COVID-19 has to do with Israel and the UAE? $60 Billion U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC)
Trump’s personal Quid-pro-quo fund buying favors where bullying fails. Is the DFC HQ located in Trump Tower Abu Dhabi?
The Abraham Peace Accords or the Palestinian Bankruptcy Act
UAE collaboration with Israel dates back to 1990s
“According to Entous, Trump’s ambassador to Israel David Friedman, a former bankruptcy lawyer, has called the planned agreement a “bankruptcy-type deal” for the Palestinians – in other words a liquidation of their rights.”
“I tweeted to Zogby asking who commissioned and paid for the poll”.
The 2019 poll was commissioned by the Sir Bani Yas Forum, which is organised by the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs in collaboration with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS.
Here is the link to the 2019 poll.
Regarding normalization and the extraordinary poll results, see link below, pages 7-8.
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/52750dd3e4b08c252c723404/t/5e18df6a0375df3ce80ff6bb/1578688363493/2019+SBY+standalone.pdf
@ Wunsch: Now I know you don’t follow all the links in my posts. Please do that next time before commenting. You’ve linked to an earlier poll, which I wasn’t referring to.
But you have further buttressed my claim that UAE funds his polling work. Thank you for that. He has not revealed who specifically funded the latest poll. And he seems to be concealing that information for some reason.
‘While there may be reasons in such polls to divide polling into Jewish and Palestinian-Israeli segments, there should never be polling concerning Israeli national issues that excludes either group. Doing so, renders the results completely biased and incomplete (at best).’
Why? Surely you aren’t implying Israeli Palestinians are citizens in anything more than a purely nominal sense. You might as well object to a poll taken in 1920 Alabama on the grounds that it disregarded the opinion of blacks.
There is this recurrent tendency to reason as if Israel is an egalitarian democracy, or should be, or could be. It’s not. It never will be. Wrap your head around that and you’ll be able to reason much more clearly.
The opinions of Palestinians in Israel are no more relevant than the opinions of white-tailed deer are here. They’re simply not members of the body politic.
@ Colin WRight: There is a certain nihilism and cynicism in your perspective which I reject out of hand. I understand that perhaps you relish the idea of being Devil’s Advocate for provocative opinions. But you go too far.
Of course the views of Blacks in Alabama in 1920 were important. Just because white society disregarded them doesn’t mean they weren’t important. If we adopted your approach Blacks in Alabama today would have no more rights than they had in 1920.
Those of us who aren’t as corrosively cynical as you believe that Israel can become a state of all its citizens. Some day. That faith guides what I do, even if it doesn’t resonate for you.
You know, Richard. Sometimes I have to laugh.
You say I don’t follow all the links in your post, but YOU don’t follow all the links in your post.
You talk about Zogby coming to his own defense in Mondoweiss, but you don’t see that Zogby is referencing his September 2019 poll, not the later one you talk about.
Zogby’s re-polling may have been redundant, but the quotes he gets from the Arabs he’s polling are illustrative.
Quotes like:
“Going to normalization…gives a chance for Palestine because the whole world is now busy with what is hap- pening in Syria, Iraq, and Iran. I believe that if there is a convincing normalization process, there will be a good chance to establish a Palestinian state.”
–and–
“All evidence is that most Arabs have hidden ties…with Israel. It is better for them to declare such ties in front of the Palestinians. Better than hiding it… [But then goes on to add] This normalization should have clear and strict conditions that ensures the return of Palestinian lands, return of refugees and a Palestinian state”
“Arab countries will develop relations with Israel because they are under pressure from the USA.”
–and–
“I agree with this for a period of time, in order for us to regain our power and gradually get back our lands.”
@ Wunsch:
No. The article Zogby wrote published in GulfNews and Mondoweiss was published in August 2020. In it, he refers to his 2019 poll. Then in the same article he says that he repolled. He did that in June-July 2020:
You’d know that if you read the 2020 poll summary itself. Those are the results referred to in the 2020 poll to which I linked. It is you who’ve misunderstood Zogby, not I.
My criticism of ZOgby’s polling includes both polls. SO it doesn’t make any difference to me which poll we refer to. They’re both junk.
The quotes Zogby uses ‘illustrate’ nothing more than an individual he polled who said something that supported his preconceived notions and those of his UAE patrons. Anecdotes are not trends nor even data. They are one individual’s opinions.
The notion that normalization will help Palestinians is not only stupid, but toxic. And of course you, an Ashkenazi pro-Israel Jew, would Palesplain to them why what’s clearly noxious (to them), is actually like Balm in Gilead. Please!
You are done in this thread.
Palestinians will be pressured to leave their Promised homeland …
“Poll: 68 percent of Israelis favor sovereignty in Judea and Samaria”
Seems to exist a permanent gap in expectations 😡
With friends like Zoghby, who needs enemies! To me as an Arab, this poll’s results are a reflection of the counter Arab-Spring wave sweeping the Arab world. A widening gap between the ruling class & the voiceless masses.