Though I often disagree with Yossi Melman’s analysis on Israeli security issues, he nevertheless manages to produce reporting that is independent of the group-think that afflicts many, if not most Israeli journalists. He’s done that in his most recent piece analyzing Iran’s nuclear program and intentions. Despite his loyalty to the State and its security interests, he is willing to expose the fallibility of the official line concerning Iran. Here is an example:
Israel and the United States have been waging a covert and overt rearguard battle to disrupt and delay Iran’s nuclear program for decades. The toolbox used in this war, according to different reports, has included blowing up facilities and equipment, assassinating scientists, cyberwarfare, diplomacy, and sanctions that are badly hurting the Iranian economy. Yet despite all the difficulties in its path, Iran has not really been deterred and has continued to pursue its nuclear program, adjusting its pace to the circumstances.
Yet perhaps it’s time to change the [consensus] conception that Iran aspires to assemble nuclear weapons at all costs. A glance at the history of nuclear weapons manufacture shows that all 11 countries that wished to build bombs did so within three to 10 years. These include the five major powers; Israel (according to foreign reports); India; Pakistan; and North Korea. Two countries, South Africa and Ukraine, voluntarily dismantled their nuclear weapons. It’s hard to work out why Iran, which has extensive scientific knowhow, which surreptitiously obtained nuclear technology, and whose scientists and universities are at quite a high level, has faced difficulties in building a bomb in 30 years.
Maybe it’s time to infer that Iran could have assembled nuclear bombs long ago, but is not doing so – for its own reasons.
Though he may seem to be stating the obvious, it can’t be repeated enough for the sake of the Iran hawks: you can’t stop a country that is hellbent on developing a nuclear capability. Unless of course, you’re prepared to invade it and overthrow the ruling regime. You couldn’t even destroy the nuclear program if you attacked it militarily. This would force delays, but where there is a will there will always be a way. Damage can be repaired. Murdered scientists can be replaced.
But anyone who claims Iran has a weapon, is intending to produce one, or is determined to use one is not only wrong, but likely to produce the very war that all profess not to want.
The only way to really stop such a program would be to re-engage with Iran, to recognize its legitimate role and interests in the region, to cease the unending vitriol spewing forth from Sunni regimes, the U.S. and Israel. This would convince Iran that it didn’t need such weaponry to defend itself. Of course, this is the opposite of what these players are doing. Hence Iran will continue to perfect its nuclear program, short of producing an actual weapon. As Melman writes:
…We must also acknowledge that Iran wants to become a nuclear threshold state, and for now is still extremely mixed over whether to build a nuclear bomb.
The second-half of this statement is actually wrong. Iran is not “mixed” at all over whether to build a bomb. Not only has the Grand Ayatollah issued a fatwa against such weaponry, Iran has repeatedly said it would not do so, and has not done so. Furthermore, anti-Iran “experts” have been falsely predicting Iran’s imminent acquisition of a bomb for 35 years.
What may be true, is that Iran wants to be in a position, if it is attacked and existentially threatened, to be able to assemble such a weapon in a limited period of time. This is precisely what Israel actually did in 1967, when it produced its first nuclear weapon as a Doomsday device in the event that it fared badly in the Six-Day War.
Oi, oi.
“A glance at the history of nuclear weapons manufacture shows that all 11 countries that wished to build bombs did so within three to 10 years”.
Richard. You neglect to mention the two Arab countries, Syria and Iraq, whose nuclear weapons programs were destroyed by Israel. These two nuclear weapons programs are not likely to reappear anytime soon.
Maybe, Iran could have assembled nuclear bombs long ago, but fearing attack and destruction, delayed assembling nuclear bombs until the threat diminished, or until Iran allied with a superpower, such as China. China gave Libya blueprints for nuclear weapons.
Also, you failed to mention that three countries, Libya, North Korea and Iran, illegally bought the means to produce nuclear weapons from A.Q. Khan, the Pakistani nuclear scientist, turned ‘Doctor Evil’. If Iran illegally bought nuclear weapons production equipment in the 80’s and 90’s, who to say she should be taken at he word now?
America’s current social unrest, coupled with her failure to confront Covid 19, make America appear weak in the eyes of many.
I wonder what Iran is thinking now, about America’s willingness to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons?
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-korea/2018-01-31/long-shadow-aq-khan
@Limey:
First, Israel cannot destroy Iran’s nuclear program as it did in Syria & Iraq. Iran’s facilities are fortified and distributed throughout the country, in a way the other countries’ programs weren’t. Second, Saddam certainly could’ve renewed his nuclear program had he wanted to do so. Indeed, Israel and Bush trumpeted the fact that he had done so as justification for invading Iraq. A claim proven to be false.
NOnsense, if Iran feared attack it would not have gone into the program to begin with. If you think Iran fears attack from Israel, you don’t know Iran or Iranians. They may be pragmatic, but they’re certainly not afraid. You don’t spend billions on a major project hoping that eventually, if circumstances change, you might be able to use the product of the program. If Iran has a nuclear program, it is in the expectation that it may need to use it; or may need to have it so its enemies will be deterred from precisely the sort of attack Bibi has contemplated almost every year he’s been PM.
Iran’s nuclear program is mostly domestically driven. It has engaged with Russia for Bushehr-based technology. Otherise, it has internal production capacity and engineering know-how and doesn’t need to rely on foreign sources (with few exceptions). But Iran last bought Pakistani technology in 1991 (or 1996 if you believe non-Iranian claims). That’s 30 years ago! That’s the equivalent of 4 light years in terms of nuclear technology development! AND Iran admitted fully to the IAEA everything it bought from Khan. It concealed nothing. So as far as Iran dissembling now, if you’d done any real research (as I did with a 30 second Google search) you’d know your claims don’t have a leg to stand on.
Further, Iran (unlike Israel and the U.S.) has abided by every major international agreement it has signed including with IAEA. Israel has violated almost every international agreement it has ever signed. Not to mention its refusal even to sign certain ones like NPT & IAEA. The U.S. of course abandoned the JCPOA after Trump became president, while Iran remains in it & has only violated it proportionally due to the European & U.S. refusal to implement its full provisions.
I know you try, but you really need to do a better job of hasbara. This was a disappointing effort on your part. I give you a B-, but that only for effort, not for finished product. I’m afraid that’s a failing grade in grad school. You’ll need to repeat Hasbara 114a in order to graduate.
Israel cannot have nuclear bomb capacity, or the bombs, have Netanyahu and the US threaten Iran (an old dog response to Ahmadinejad) and expect that Iran will also not want this capacity as a deterrent.Thanks too to GW Bush’s war on Iraq.That all helped Netanyahu to use (abuse) “the Iran threat” politically despite what the Israeli military has said.The relationship with US has been abused as well politically with internal help.. and successfully. Insofar as this tactic has been successful it’s deflected attention from the real existential issue in Israel with regard to the military occupation of Palestinians.
France gave Israel Dimona and the nuclear bomb. Essential parts such as klystron were stolen from US stockpiles or industry. China helped India to build the bomb, so suoerpower U.S. shut their eyes and let AG Khan pilfer nuclear blueprints from NATO partner the Netherlands. Did we mention the partnership of Israel with the apartheid State South Africa in the nuclear test and production chemical agents for war? Yep, pointing fingers … believing western media after CIA’s Operation Mockingbird?
See Project Coast and Brothers in arms – Israel’s secret pact with Pretoria.
Just to be clear, I DON’T WISH FOR IRAN TO HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS. I WANT SUCH WEAPONS TO BE ABOLISHED! However having said that if Trump gets re-elected and attacks Iran or if Israel does so, then I wish that Iran would have a nuclear weapon. It’s not right that the US and Israel can do stuff and just get away with it. Remember that Trump already attacked an Iranian military base, and recently I read that Israel did so too. As president, Joe Biden will restore the nuclear deal with Iran that was negotiated by Obama when he was president.
”As president, Joe Biden will restore the nuclear deal …”
Bring along a new U.S. Senate and I still doubt you have a chance! Across the aisle if there is a choice, KSA Salman and UAE as military allies and wealth capital investment in the West, will persevere.
Europe is useless, thus only China can have an effect in the balance of power in the Middle East. Need another decade or two …
New Cold War to take down China and lengthen the American Enterprise for some years.
“ As president, Joe Biden will restore the nuclear deal with Iran that was negotiated by Obama when he was president.”
is it not quite obvious that he is non compos mentis?
Avram Stern wrote “is it not quite obvious that he is non compos mentis?”
It is Trump who is a sociopath.
Walter Ballin
There is a great diff between non compos mentis running a country and a ‘supposed ‘sociopath in your opinion only.
On your twitter feed indeed a Saudi bot “Talia” @Lady000Talia, created at the time of the gruesome torture and murder of Jamal Khashoggi to praise Salman and the kingdom. The quotes of the Iranian nuclear program are outdated portions of the Israeli propaganda site “Honest Reporting”. Iran: A Clear and Present Danger [page created in 2012]
@ Oui: Thanks. I reported that account as fake. Twitter has taken down such Saudi accounts in the past, but I doubt they’ll do so with this one.
Ahh, now I get it.
Neighbor owns an assault rifle and five magazines of ammo, but until he ‘loads and locks’, he’s not a danger to the neighbors.
Richard.
Please.
@ Limey: Yeah, if you attacked every Southern gun owner because he owned an assault rifle, you’re have rivers, if not oceans of blood running through the streets. Not to mention, if every Arab country attacked Israel because it owned 200 nuclear bombs it hasn’t used (yet), there would be thousands if not hundreds of thousands of Israeli dead. But of course, unlike the hypocrite you are, none of that’s going to happen because most human beings are fairly pragmatic and can live with conditions they feel are dangerous and threatening, as long as the danger and threat isn’t actually implemented through action.
The Israel page on WMD programs …
https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/israel/
Israel’s assault rifle consists of nuclear and CW arsenal. Amimut
“What may be true, is that Iran wants to be in a position, if it is attacked and existentially threatened, to be able to assemble such a weapon in a limited period of time.”
Is there a Fatwa that allows that?
Iran invests billions in this program.
Iran doesn’t even try to mask it with publication of findings about other fields of research.
Iran negotiated for years not building a weapon it supposedly not allowed to build. Either Obama didn’t buy it or he is the biggest sucker on earth.
@ Jeal R: a cardinal rule here: I don’t make statements that aren’t true and fully sourced. And the fatwa is well and truly documented by myriad sources.
No Iran, should it want to do so, would have every right to build a nuclear weapon just as ten or more other countries including Israel have done so (most recently North Korea). It has agreed not to build a weapon and has not done so (contrary to your false claim).
as i said Israel (is) have a fetish with iran – look at today’s jpost – more stories about iran than about the unemployed or bibi’s retroactive tax refund whilst the haredis rob some more to get more money in their out of context football team sized families.
when will jews build cheaper apartments for all that do not have included in the price free mikvehs and synagogues .
when will the arrogance and fake fox type news stop to make this country better
who cares about iran when Ohana is copycating the Barr arrogance to call peaceful protesters as terrorists.
who cares about iran when the budget or lack of it will cause elections and that’s bibi (mr defense, you gotta be kidding me) is playing politics with MY LIFE AND INCOME
while the world is recoiling from buying from china for all its abuses Mr KATZ SOLD ISRAEL TO CHINA (lets try to ffind out HIS baksheesh) EVERY SINGLE DRY GOOD IN THIS COUNTRY IS MADE IN CHINA. why worry about iran when we owe so much to mr Xi.
Mr Xi has done more damage to Israel by destroying all its industrial power (except intel and then maybe even that is going to taiwan) by importing goods made in Xinjiang, then again i hear the purist saying bah huumbag they are muslims so who cares .
Israel sees the toothpick is everyone else’s eye but not the tree in her own.
nothing new here please move on
Israel’s Unauthorized Arms Transfers | FP – 1995|
U.S. Dual-Use Exports to China, Chinese Behavior, and the Israel Factor: Effective Controls? | Asian Review – 1999 |
The U.S.-China-Israel Technology Triangle | CFR – July 2019|
https://www.cfr.org/blog/us-china-israel-technology-triangle
<em>Since the 1980s, Israel has carefully walked the U.S.-China technology tensions tightrope, trying to balance its commercial and security interests with the two great powers. The growing dual-use nature of technology threatens to overthrow Israel’s careful efforts to expand trade with Beijing, while avoiding the sales of security technologies that would increase Chinese military capabilities and anger Washington.</em>
Of course missile parts and military technology is not identical to 5G Huawei telecom data transfer.
My comment may not have been clear.
You write there is a fatwa that disallow nuclear weapon.
I asked 2 questions-
1. How can Iran assemble a nuke if under threat. Is there a fatwa that allows it under certain conditions.
2. Why would the west negotiate something a country leadership says is not allowed religiously? Maybe b/c they didn’t believe it!
Everything about this program screams military use and you are waving a fatwa (and then say it doesn’t always hold) as a ‘proof’.
Can you explain what is the program actually for?
No one throws billions away for fun.
RS
“if every Arab country attacked Israel because it owned 200 nuclear bombs it hasn’t used (yet), there would be thousands if not hundreds of thousands of Israeli dead.”
i don’t think the Iran would nuke Israel even if it had nukes. A very simple reason: if Israel were nuked it being very small geographically it would make Israel uninhabitable for maybe 150yrs.The Temple mount would most likely be destroyed along with al-Aqsa and there could be millions of Arabs dead albeit Sunnis which the Shi’a have hated since the inception of Islam.
Hizballah knows it doesn’t pay to start a major war because of the consequences and in order to save face and therefore plays around with minor skirmishes.
I am sure in your lifetime you have seen two male cats with twisted heads and all sorts of growling on a turf issue but once it has started each one is trying to back down without a fight and no damage.
I call this ‘the middle eastern male ego syndrome’.
why are we even bothering with iran destroying israel, why indeed if bibi is doing a great job at accomplishing it all by himself + sarah + baby bibi
we have the local Barr doing exactly what Barr does in Israel
we have bibi cowardice vs the religious mafia
we have right anarchists doing the same as the us white extremists
we have a virus running loose cuz bibi
why indeed would iran waste a drop of saliva on Israel, iran keeps its military industry running to produce perhaps subpar products cuz they know most will be destroyed by israels american made bombs
when iran was indeed threatened way back with saddam it did put its future generation on the line and it succeeded
so please get over the MAD wargames and invest in people but then again boys will always be boys and they will always want the bigger better useless war machine, bombastic at best obsolete just as fast as it leaves the manufacturing floor.
Oi, mates.
Richard said:
“Further, Iran (unlike Israel and the U.S.) has abided by every major international agreement it has signed including with IAEA”.
Now hold on a minute.
Iran’s Disregard for International Law and Agreements. See link, below.
https://www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com/irans-disregard-for-international-law-and-agreementshttps://www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com/irans-disregard-for-international-law-and-agreements
Please don’t ban me for citing to an organization, you feel is treif.
Let’s deal in facts, shall we.
Assuming, arguendo, United Against Iran wrote a flawed paper, than lets discuss the errors.
@ Limey: United Against a Nuclear Iran is a pro-Israel front group and a conduit for anti-Iran intelligence produced by Israel. In that sense, it is little different from the cult terror group, MeK, which also does the bidding of Israeli intelligence.
It is completely TREIF. Nor do I do it the honor of taking anything it writes seriously. Don’t ever use it as a source here again.
@TL
Blimey … quoting UANI 🤣
Coalition of the Willing Against Iran: US Justice Dept, Ungar, UANI and Mossad
https://www.eurotrib.com/story/2014/8/2/53446/39127
Nothing here to see … has already been spelled out.
Except you forget that Iran has sworn to wiper Israel off the face of the map.
@GF
Honoured …
https://www.meforum.org/campus-watch/60552/juan-cole-feels-the-bern
seeing demons for some time, poor lad.
brakes my heart to see so many savvy people wasting time effort saliva on “possible” iran wiping something anything from a map .
while all this unrealistic discussion about possibles maybes perhaps in years to come, putin has put his army in 3 mediterranean countries — syria turkey libya
now what is more dangerous for israel a maybe iran bomb in who knows how many years or been encircled by warplanes left and right and s400 in turkey (who is itching to do anything, remember marmara)
now what needs more urgent defenses .
can we quit the smoke and watch the real please
or do you all believe that israel will always be able to weasel out of russia politics because we relieved them of a couple of million souls
you all think you see what’s in the mullah’s turban but you ignore the putin bombs pointing at israel
what a bunch