No sooner do you write something you think may be definitive in terms of expressing your views about a particular Middle Eastern country, than circumstances change radically and you must revise your thinking entirely.
A few days ago, I delivered a talk here in Seattle on the Syrian Revolution which I thought presented my views succinctly. Then I read two articles about the rebels seeking to overthrow Assad that made me radically rethink my view of that situation. It seems there are animals on both sides of that conflict. The only thing I still feel certain of is that western intervention especially U.S. intervention will be very bad for Syria (as is Iranian and Russian intervention on Assad’s behalf).
Similarly, I wrote a post only two days ago expressing restrained optimism about the protests against Egypt’s Pres. Morsi. I thought they might bode well for the maturing of the democratic instinct in national politics. The protests brought to mind the Filipino People Power rallies by those who eventually toppled Ferdinand Marcos.
What I didn’t bargain for was military intervention. While Egyptians may be ecstatic with today’s developments, a military coup is not the way to reinforce democratic values. There can be no doubt that Morsi was a disastrous leader and that the Muslim Brotherhood was ill-suited to move from being an underground dissident force to a ruling party. There is also no doubt that the country’s Islamist leaders were intolerable and the nation faced increasingly severe economic and political problems.
But the military is not the guarantor of democracy. The military throughout the world takes power for itself when there is a vacuum. I’m not saying Egypt’s armed forces plan to take power themselves. But once they intervene as they have tonight (even if it’s for a cause the majority of the country believes in), they will intervene again. But next time they may not have the overwhelming support of the nation. Next time, they may topple a truly democratic leader who seeks to rein in their perks, privileges, and business empire. Here is today’s NYT on the subject:
Mr. Morsi, like his immediate predecessor, Hosni Mubarak, discovered the enduring fact that the military looks out for itself above all else. It is not ideological, but is intensely politicized. “Egypt’s military leaders are not ideologically committed to one thing or the other; they believe in their place in the political order,” said Steven A. Cook…
“The liberals and the revolutionaries are too quick to hop into bed with the military — it is not their friend,” said Mr. Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations. “The most important thing from the military’s perspective is preserving its place as the locus of power and influence in the system.”
While justifying its intervention in politics as serving the will of the people, the military has never been a force for democracy. It has one primary objective, analysts said: preserving national stability and its untouchable realm of privilege within the Egyptian state.
…For decades…its tens of thousands of elite officers have jealously guarded their privileged station. They live as a class apart, with their own social clubs, hotels, hospitals, parks and other benefits financed by the state.
Many have also grown wealthy through government contracts and business deals facilitated by their positions. It is, in some respects, a hereditary Brahmin caste, in which sons follows their fathers’ careers and they all live inside a closed social circle.
Every future leader of Egypt, whether inept or visionary, will have to confront the fact that he may not rankle the army or it will repeat what it did today. That means the army ultimately has veto power, especially over issues that directly concern it. That, in turn is not a real democracy. The only way for Egypt to fully flower is eventually to rein in the military so that is subservient to the people rather than a parallel force.
I’m also concerned that the army has arrested Morsi and 35 of the Brotherhood’s top leaders. While I can understand the concern that its supporters might try to wage a violent campaign against whoever ultimately takes power, you don’t arrest your political opponents. You persuade your fellow citizens of the power of your ideas at the ballot box.
I read an interesting article last night that said that the straw that broke the camel’s back for the military was Pres. Morsi’s call for violent jihad against the Assad regime. In his speech, he said it was the duty of all good Muslims (read, Sunnis) to wage war against the Alawite-Shiite forces. The implication was that Egypt’s army should also join the fight. The response by the military’s leaders was sharp. They correctly noted their job was to protect Egypt, not to adventure into foreign lands.
Israel’s leaders are sittin’ pretty with today’s developments. As any good politician will tell you, when your opponent is imploding just sit back and watch. Israel, of course, can’t restrain itself. That’s why it’s leaders crow about the overthrow of the Morsi government. Disarray in the most powerful frontline state is good for Israel. It means there can be no pressure for it to deal with Gaza or Hamas. It means the likelihood of a more secular, “moderate” (whatever that means) party taking power is greater. But Israel’s leaders are guilty of thinking in hide-bound clichés. Islamist=Bad. Secularist=Good.
That’s not the way the Middle East works. In truth, we don’t know what will follow Morsi or the Brotherhood. It may be a relative moderate like Mohammed el-Baradei; or it may be a general in civilian clothing. Whoever it is, Israel, by its own actions, has guaranteed that no Egyptian leader can take a soft approach to bilateral relations. Even the most quiescent leader is going to have to take a hardline on Israel.
Israel, on the other hand, believes that its own behavior has no bearing on how it’s perceived in the region. It looks at the frontline states in a unidimensional manner. They hate us. Let’s just wait for someone better to come along who hates us less.
Finally, what Israeli political leaders forget is that a true Egyptian democracy might impact Israeli politics in unforeseen and disturbing ways. Imagine a visionary leader who would set Egypt on the road to long-term stability, economic growth, and democracy. Such a leader would offer Israelis a vision of an Arab state that might run rings around Israel because it, unlike Israel, would’ve truly embraced ethnic tolerance and diversity.
Admittedly, this is a development that won’t happen overnight. The Middle East isn’t going to turn into a George Bush democratic fantasy based on one Egyptian military coup. But as I wrote in the post I referred to above, the region is moving slowly (in some places more slowly than others), deliberately and inexorably toward what I called an arc of justice.
Many may doubt this view. But if you looked at Latin America from the 1950s through the 1980s, it seemed a subcontinent ruled by caudillos, juntas, and strong men. There were few models for democracy there. But eventually the tide turned away from the generals in dark glasses and toward civilian governments determined by the will of the people.
Something like this will happen in the Middle East. When it does, Israel is liable to be left in the dust. IT will be exposed for the half-baked democracy it is.
“We The People”
Millions showed their will with peaceful demonstrations, the police and armed forces no longer took dictates from dictator Morsi. Morsi and the MB minority rewrote the Constitution, suspended or fired judges, appointed his cronies in newsrooms and governorships, decided to support sending Egyptians to fight a foreign war in Syria on behalve of Islamic fundamentalist monarchies of rich Arab Gulf states, did not protect free press nor women’s rights, did nothing to compromise with other parties of the first revolution and those who supported his election as President of Egypt.
In the first round of the presidential election, Morsi got a bare 5.8 million votes!
On the petition for his removal, 22 million Egyptians signed that paper!
A LEGITIMATE OVERTHROW BY THE PEOPLE!!
Let this be a wise lesson for other leaders in the region who follow the deslusional path of Erdogan’s Muslim Brotherhood in Turkey. Of course the Obama administration was opposed as are many here on BooMan’s blog. Assad is not surprised and praises the overthrow of Morsi. The backers of foreign intervention to overthrow Assad by military means are not happy today. Just a show of colors. I do hope the many decades of US training and bribes have given the Egyptian generals sufficient moral fibers to do what is best for the Egyptian people and nation.
I’m just as elated as the Egyptians are throughout their nation with cheers and fireworks. I have trust and hope in the people’s movement towards a true democracy, not one hijacked by religious fanatics.
Let’s not worry about the refusal by US Congress to fund 1.5bn for Egypt’s military, that money was a bribe to keep the peace treaty with Israel anyway.
PS I do have quite a different view on the developments in Syria and the Middle East than your earlier piece …
Now and then I do miss that “edit” button, my bad.
Should read: “… as are many on progressive blogs.”
@ Oui: “I do hope the many decades of US training and bribes have given the Egyptian generals sufficient moral fibers to do what is best for the Egyptian people and nation.”
I’m not sure whether this is irony or not, but in either case, it is where, in my opinion, your argument falls apart.
Even though he was the democratically elected president, I would have supported — and I did support — the Tahrir assembly’s efforts to unseat Morsi. Enlightened vanguardism is sometimes an acceptable and even desirable alternative to democracy.
But their unholy alliance with the fascist military discredited this entire phase of the revolution. It was wrong and it was cowardly for the protesters not to reject the armed forces’ “assistance”. It is easy to succeed with “peaceful demonstrations”, as you put it, when you have military helicopters backing you up. It’s easy to be a radical when you have tanks in the streets on your side.
This is reaction masked as progress. It is counter-revolution.
The Muslim Brotherhood, much as I dislike them politically, are the true revolutionaries of Egypt; and many of Morsi’s arrogant, tone-deaf mistakes were actually efforts to try to take power away from the generals (and, admittedly, concentrate it in their own, democratic, hands). That said — I do not defend them; I do not like them; I merely want to set the record straight.
What happened tonight was a disgrace.
Informed Comment, views by Juan Cole …
Egypt’s “Revocouption” and the future of Democracy on the Nile
In fact, there certainly was a popular revolutionary element to the events, with literally millions of protesters coming out on Sunday and after, in the biggest demonstrations in Egyptian history. You can’t dismiss that as merely a coup d’etat from on top by a handful of officers.
Read on …
@ Oui: As I said in my previous comment, I neither question nor disapprove of the fact that there were millions of protesters in the streets. On the contrary — I emphasize and applaud it. And I was supportive of this movement and their aspirations, up until the moment they began chanting, “the army and the people are one hand”.
You can point to whatever facet of these events that you like. It doesn’t change the fact that on the 3rd of July, the Egyptian opposition gave away democracy to the generals. It’s an embarrassment — /especially/ because, as we both agree, the protest movement was more than likely powerful enough to enact radical change on its own. But the generals couldn’t allow that, and the protesters weren’t principled and brave enough to — especially if they had to take on the Brotherhood in the streets themselves.
The Guardian editorial today has it right:
“The military coup has had one benefit. It has made it crystal clear on which side everyone now stands. The liberals, nationalists, Salafis and head of the Coptic church have joined sides with Egypt’s unreformed and unreformable deep state. The ousted Muslim Brotherhood on the other have gained a cause even more potent than Islamism. They are now fighting for constitutional democracy.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/04/egypt-throwing-ballot-box-window
I think the military acted, because although Morsi’s supporters are a minority, they are very highly organised on the streets, and would probably have made mincemeat of the larger and more diverse opposition crowds, which comprise everyone from liberals and Copts, to those Muslims who see the Brotherhood as a political rather than a religious movement.
A lot of people voted for Morsi precisely because his party was the best organized, but they really didn’t like the constitution which he then pushed through.
It’s rather like the Blair regime, compressed into a tenth of the timespan.
It’s going to be very difficult in the long run, but in the short term it probably does save lives at the cost of many niceties.
Some of the older, wiser BBC reporters suggested at the time of the election, that the real problem was that the electorate didn’t really know how a democracy was going to work and consequently they didn’t know who to pick.
I think that Egyptian voters mistakenly thought (and they are not alone in this) that the politicians who listened to them and said all the right things during the election campaign, would continue on that basis while in office. That’s not the way it works (outside of the Isle of Man or Herm) but it was what the Egyptian public thought they’d be getting.
(On the IoM, all new legislation has to be read out, at an open meeting, before it becomes law. If anyone on the electoral roll calls out an objection, the House of Keys has to reconsider that bill and it can’t become law until the next open meeting. As a safety mechanism against constitutional tinkering, it’s very effective and would have stopped Blair, never mind Morsi, but we’ll be told it’s not appropriate to large countries. On Herm, the public meeting is not a safeguard on the process of government and legislation: it is the process of government, legislation and basic administration. This is not a system invented by hippies, but one invented by Vikings, long suppressed in Scandinavia and only surviving on the fringes of the British isles.)
In Egypt’s case, the constitution shouldn’t have been left in the hands of politicians, for whom this was the first significant instrument they’d ever passed.
The 1st revolution was also backed by the police and the military. Mubarak’s thugs and the “camel riders” caused violence and deaths amongst the protesters. It’s not easy for an elected leader to lose his legitimacy within one year, that’s what Morsi managed to do. The list of suppression of civil rights by the MB cronies is quite long indeed. Just as in Tunisia an adjustment was necessary in a new democracy, so it was overdue in Egypt and passed yesterday. The future will tell, but the cards in the Arab nations and the Middle East region have been re-shuffled. So goes Egypt, so goes the Arab uprising and its legacy. Losers are Turkey and Qatar, winners are the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Just watch how few of Mursi’s “friends” are admitting so today. For me the numbers say a lot, Morsi made the same mistake as seen in the past, forcing religion on the people in rewriting the constitution and appointing cronies in the judiciary, press and leadership positions. Egypt’s military is also a powerful economic force in the country that can’t be set aside in the first year of a revolution. I didn’t appreciate Morsi (MB’s) intent nor execution of policy of alienating the vast majority. The MB was responsible for the assassination of President Sadat, Zawahri (and thousands) were jailed in the aftermath, the MB did indeed suffer greatly under oppression by Egypt’s dictatorship and the military. Revenge is a poor motive when you are in power. Once again, take example to the people of South Africa and Nelson Mandela. Compromise and reconciliation woven in a democratic proces.
The first revolution was absolutely not “backed by the police and the military”. It was directed against Mubarak, the military’s own patron and protégé. The police, and above all the Armed Forces, only turned coats to side with the people when it had become absolutely clear that there could be no other outcome; when Mubarak became more trouble than he was worth, and threatened to drag them down with him. The Egyptian generals knew which way the wind was blowing, and then took advantage of it — just like they did last night. This is typical of any clique which has grown accustomed to vast privilege, and developed keen instincts to preserve those privileges whenever they are threatened. For a good analysis of what motivated the Armed Forces in 2013 and what still does, see this New York Times piece:
“While justifying its intervention in politics as serving the will of the people, the military has never been a force for democracy. It has one primary objective, analysts said: preserving national stability and its untouchable realm of privilege within the Egyptian state.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/04/world/middleeast/Egyptian-military-reasserts-its-allegiance-to-its-privileges.html?hpw&_r=0
As for the Muslim Brotherhood, there are two things we can say with absolute certainty: they will survive this crisis, and they will never forget this.
In the words of Mohammed Ayoob,
“The major lesson that Islamists in the Middle East are likely to learn from this episode is that they will not be allowed to exercise power no matter how many compromises they make in both the domestic and foreign policy arenas. This is likely to push a substantial portion of mainstream Islamists into the arms of the extremists who reject democracy and ideological compromise.”
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/07/03/opinion/ayoob-egypt-military/index.html
On this blog I have learned “Islamists” is a non-descriptive term, not sure which groups or states it defines. Aren’t “Islamists” doing quite well in a democratic Turkey? The Arab states are divided along sectarian lines to no one’s surprise, that’s why the wars in Lebanon and Syria are fought. That is also the root cause the British/French/American alliance did not succeed in building a united Syrian Opposition Group with any credibility and approval of the GCC states. So what happened to Morsi’s international friends/allies after one day …
“LOSERS”
QATAR – gave full political support and funds up to 7.5bn to the MB in Egypt
TURKEY – Erdogan was thrilled Morsi would follow his leadership to change a secular state to a theocracy.
“WINNERS”
UAE – the MB is outlawed and just sentenced 8 men in absentia to 15 year jail terms.
SAUDI ARABIA – the Salafist party which gave full support to Morsi in the 2nd round of the election were sidelined in the political proces, is not forgotten by King Abdullah.
This is not Abdel Nasser or his followers by any measure. This general appears to be walking on eggshells and saying “excuse me, excuse me” no one was put against a wall and shot, no one was literally thrown in jail and gagged (literally) i’ve seen it and lived it physically both in egypt and montevideo, I will never forget the fear in our family and our christian neighbours. The day Cairo burned is seared in my brains. none of it is repeated here, none
I can only see good things flowing from this, once the bad guys were unmasked for what they truly are, the bandage was lifted from the people’s eyes and saw who was on their side. None of the others leaders bears any mark power monger.
There is no doubt that at one point of another eggshells WILL BE BROKEN. but for now there is nothing but good intentions. As an israeli, I AM JEALOUS. none of our leaders is any different from the Muslim brotherhood evils. NONE not a single one is not as power hungry as these other guys. I truly hope for someone anyone who can deliver us and put back humpty dumpty as he should be. sorrily not gonna happen anytime not soon not ever, sigh
Yes, the military are saints. Truly paragons of democracy and virtue.
Contrary to what you say, 28 people have been killed so far, most of them in gun attacks on pro-Morsi demonstrations. Hundreds of ranking Brothers are being rounded up and arrested.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/05/world/middleeast/egypt.html?ref=global-home&_r=1&
Then you have the more casual kind of fascism, as can be seen here:
https://twitter.com/Ikhwanweb/status/352914650888806402
But hey, “good intentions”!
“The response by the military’s leaders was sharp. They correctly noted their job was to protect Egypt, not to adventure into foreign lands.”
I wonder what the US military should have done, if they were guided by the same principle…
Events unfolding in Egypt demonstrate what the power of numbers can, sometimes, do.
Yesterday, I thought of the French revolution. It was, of course very different. There was sacrifice, and reprisals.
I thought of how countries, e.g., in Africa, and elsewhere, developed the path to “Democracy”, and the growing pains that come with it. That is how I think it is in Egypt, a struggle within a struggle of control over cultural and religious ideas, and ultimately, resources.
Someone reporting on the events in Egypt, said that it wasn’t the last straw that broke the camel’s back, but all the ones that came before.
Similarly, Israel’s “Democracy”, will perhaps, be challenged, in time. The early settlers in Israel came from Europe, where an Arab presence was, virtually, non existent – to a region completely different, demographically and culturally.
The IDF, and military forces, can, and do, subjugate people.
When this changes, anything can happen. I hope Egypt can bring peaceful change, and opposition to this will fail. It is clear that authoritarian military rule in the world causes massive suffering.
Entrenched military rule, or Occupation, is ultimately, dehumanizing, in my view; it does not allow freedom, peace, or democracy.
” Do not look for whom the bell tolls, it toll for thee”.
Interesting … Palestinians Split Over Morsi’s Fall
Alliance Egypt/Qatar/Hamas
Fatah calls on Palestinians to overthrow Hamas in wake of Morsi’s fall
(JPost) – In a letter to acting President Adli Mansour, Abbas congratulated him on the appointment, expressing hope that he would fulfill the aspirations of the Egyptian people to “live in freedom, dignity and stability.”
Abbas also praised the Egyptian army and its commanders for preserving Egypt’s security and preventing it from slipping toward the abyss. Tayeb Abdel Rahim, a top aide to Abbas, saluted the Egyptian army for the “wonderful achievement.”
Referring to Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, Abdel Rahim hailed the Egyptian army and people for refusing to be intimidated by those who “sow sedition, civil war and sectarianism.” Jamal Nazzal, a senior Fatah representative, called on Palestinians to overthrow Hamas in wake of the toppling of Morsi.
Meanwhile, Palestinian analysts predicted that the collapse of the Muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt would undermine Hamas, which in the past year has been emboldened by Morsi’s rise to power.
Egypt’s military is entirely dependent on US aid.
This coup is a a US and Israeli foreign policy wet dream.