29 thoughts on “New Election Poll Forecasts Likud Implosion, Social Justice Party Breaks New Ground With Successful Social Media-Based Campaign – Tikun Olam תיקון עולם إصلاح العالم
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    1. Yes, that was my first reaction too. Just tells us that they don’t count…..
      Noam Sheizaf wrote a while back that +972mag had decided not to publish any polls that didn”t differentiate between the ‘Arab’ parties. Apparently in many Israeli polls that distinction is not made. An Arab is an Arab is an Arab, and after all, they only have formal voting rights. God forbids that they ever get any actual influence.

      1. PS. Hopefully that meant the fascists Michael Ben-Ari, Arieh Eldad and Baruh Marzel from Otzma are out. United Torah Judaism is also missing.

          1. In fact, you’re right. Ben-Ari, Eldad and Marzel are at least so openly fascist thugs that it’s impossible not to see whereas Bennett seems more slick.

  1. This adds up to 115 (including the 10 seats mentioned above). Five seats still missing… Please check with your source.

  2. Hi, Richard

    The reason why Nitay Peretez doesn’t include Eretz Chadasha is simply another example of the censorship this party is put under in polls for the entire campaign, my opinion is that your initial source is correct and Nitay’s tweet shows tampered results.

    1. No, I think the reason is different. I questioned Nitay and he told me the Rafi Smith poll he quoted is from 3 days ago. The one I’m quoting is from about 12 hours ago. This means that Eretz Chadasha went from 0 to 4 seats in that interval, which, if true, is incredible. It also means Otzma went from 3 to 0 seats in that time frame.

      1. Thanks for your reply, but I think Nitay was just trying to cover himself up because you put him on the spot.

        I do not believe it’s possible that two different polls within 3 days would have the EXACT same results for every single party except for those two.

        Nitay is a member of the extreme right and he has every motive to tamper with the result in order to encourage voters for Otzma to go vote. Eretz Hadasha and Otzma are heaven and earth from each other, the populations voting for each party is entirely different. Think of the difference between the Tea Party and the most liberal section in the democratic party you can think of.

  3. Could you please post the specs of the poll? These should probably appear in your information (the number of people polled, margin of error, land line phones or cell phones, etc.)

    1. These are internal party polls, not publicly accessible ones. It’s illegal inside Israel to publish such polls within 5 days of an election. If I physically had the polls in front of me I would certainly do so. But doing so might endanger my source as well.

  4. Something is illogical here: where are the votes for the orthodox party “Yahadut Hatora”. They must have their firm 5-6 votes! Which is the party/are the parties here which have their votes?

  5. Actually, this poll claims that the left-center has a 60-61 seat block which actually means that Netanyahoo will *not* be the next prime minister, but Yair Lapid – the chairman of the largest party in the block.

  6. The jumps in the small parties are not that unbelievable. The barrier in the elections in Israel is 2% which is 2.4 seats. So the jump from 3 to 0 by Ozma can actually be a jump of only 0.7%

  7. Thanks Richard. I always love reading your posts, and this poll is interesting. I know of dozens of Israelis who are giving their votes to Palestinians who can’t vote. I know it won’t be huge, but the movement will grow. These Palestinians are all from the occupied territories or the Diaspora.

    1. Is there a movement in palestine to give votes to Israelis? Saying that palestinians (who are living in palestine) should vote in israeli elections is like saying Canadians should vote in American elections.

      1. I can’t begin to measure how much ignorance this comment encapsulates. First, if you wish to compare Palestine to Canada and the U.S. to Israel can you tell me when Palestine became an independent country as Canada is? Israeli governments have never recognized an independent Palestine. Given that, Palestinians have every right to seek their self determination within a unitary state calling it Israel or whatever. Were Israel ever to recognize Palestine (not in the offing I’m afraid), you’d have a stronger case. Still not that strong, but at least stronger.

  8. You forget the United Torah Judaism, you have onli 115/116 mandates and in Israel has 120 seats so i guess you forget to write them and they have 4/5 seats.
    You chould maybe being more sapicific about the arab parties?
    From the ten how many seats get hadash, United Arab List and Arab Democratic Party?
    I guess it will be Hadash-4 UAL-3 and ADP-3 but i want to be sure.

  9. Could you have been deliberately tricked into publishing this speculative poll (where obviously Erez Hadasha numbers are wrong)?

      1. I did not mean to offend you. I did not mean to imply that you were manipulating any poll.
        I am asking how reliable your source was.
        In the final count, Eretz Hadasha did not get even 1%, a far cry from the 3% it needs for 4 mandates.

        As no polls are published in Israel, this may motivate insiders to feed manipulated data to bloggers.
        (This should now be verifiable whether these were real numbers from Rafi Smith or not).

        1. My sources were dead-on accurate about the polls. There was hanky panky by other parties that diverted Eretz Chadasha’s votes.

          I had access to two different polls (3 if you include Smith’s earlier poll which NItay Peretz tweeted).

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