UPDATE: Here’s the link for my portion of the BBC Newshour segment in which I was interviewed about the Israeli government document. The entire program, which includes a number of other segments discussing and analyzing the document is here.
Israelis are posting a claim that the document I published is identical to a post published by Fresh, an Israeli gossip/news portal, a few days ago. It is not. My original IDF source leaked the post to a Fresh member and me at the same time. That person published a small portion of the original memo at Fresh, embellishing it with much material that was meant to disguise what it was and where it came from. I can’t ascribe motives to whoever published it at Fresh, but much of it fantasy and isn’t in the original document. This story is now a screaming headline in the Israeli media and at no point has anyone in the Israeli government maintained that this document is anything other than what I claim it to be. They know it is authentic. Anyone else who claims otherwise does so at the risk of their own credibility (if they have any).
* *
In the past few days, I received an Israeli briefing document outlining Israel’s war plans against Iran. The document was passed to me by a high-level Israeli source who received it from an IDF officer. My source, in fact, wrote to me that normally he would not leak this sort of document, but:
“These are not normal times. I’m afraid Bibi and Barak are dead serious.”
The reason they leaked it is to expose the arguments and plans advanced by the Bibi-Barak two-headed warrior. Neither the IDF leaker, my source, nor virtually any senior military or intelligence officer wants this war. While whoever wrote this briefing paper had use of IDF and intelligence data, I don’t believe the IDF wrote it. It feels more likely it came from the shop of national security advisor Yaakov Amidror, a former general, settler true-believer and Bibi confidant. It could also have been produced by Defense Minister Barak, another pro-war booster.
I’ve translated the document from Hebrew with the help of Dena Shunra.
Before laying out the document, I wanted to place it in context. If you’ve been reading this blog you’ll know that after Bibi’s IDF service he became the marketing director for a furniture company. Recent revelations have suggested that he may have also served in some capacity either formally or informally in the Mossad during that period.
This document is a more sophisticated version of selling bedroom sets and three-piece sectionals. The only difference is that this marketing effort could lead to the death of thousands.
This is Bibi’s sales pitch for war. Its purpose is to be used in meetings with members of the Shminiya , the eight-member security cabinet which currently finds a 4-3 majority opposed to an Iran strike. Bibi uses this sales pitch to persuade the recalcitrant ministers of the cool, clean, refreshing taste of war. My source informs me that it has also been shared in confidence with selected journalists who are in the trusted inner media circle (who, oh who, might they be?).
This is Shock and Awe, Israel-style. It is Bibi’s effort to persuade high-level Israeli officials that Israel can prosecute a pure technology war that involves relatively few human beings (Israeli, that is) who may be put in harm’s way, and will certainly cost few lives of IDF personnel.
Bibi’s sleight of hand here involves no mention whatsoever of an Iranian counter-attack against Israel. The presumption must be that the bells and whistles of all those marvelous new weapons systems will decapitate Iran’s war-making ability and render it paralyzed. The likelihood of this actually happening is nearly nil.
There will be those who will dispute the authenticity of this document. I’m convinced it is what my source claims, based on his prior track record and the level of specificity offered in the document. It references cities by name and the facilities they contain. It names new weapons systems including one Israel supposedly hasn’t even shared with the U.S.
No, it’s real. Or I should say that while it’s real, it is the product of the Israeli dream factory which manufactures threats and then creates fabulist military strategies to address them. The dream factory always breaks the hearts of the families of those whose members fall victim to it. It never produces the result it promises, nor will it do so here.
Remember Bush-era Shock and Awe? Remember those promises of precision-guided cruise missiles raining death upon Saddam Hussein’s Iraq? Remember Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” ceremony on the deck of the USS Lincoln, only six or seven years premature? Remember the promises of decisive victory? Remember 4,000 U.S. dead, not to mention hundreds of thousands of Iraqis?
Now, think of what an Israeli war against Iran could turn into. Think about how this sanitized version of 21st century war could turn into a protracted, bloody conflict closer to the nine-year Iran-Iraq War:
The Israeli attack will open with a coordinated strike, including an unprecedented cyber-attack which will totally paralyze the Iranian regime and its ability to know what is happening within its borders. The internet, telephones, radio and television, communications satellites, and fiber optic cables leading to and from critical installations—including underground missile bases at Khorramabad and Isfahan—will be taken out of action. The electrical grid throughout Iran will be paralyzed and transformer stations will absorb severe damage from carbon fiber munitions which are finer than a human hair, causing electrical short circuits whose repair requires their complete removal. This would be a Sisyphean task in light of cluster munitions which would be dropped, some time-delayed and some remote-activated through the use of a satellite signal.
A barrage of tens of ballistic missiles would be launched from Israel toward Iran. 300km ballistic missiles would be launched from Israeli submarines in the vicinity of the Persian Gulf. The missiles would not be armed with unconventional warheads [WMD], but rather with high-explosive ordnance equipped with reinforced tips designed specially to penetrate hardened targets.
The missiles will strike their targets—some exploding above ground like those striking the nuclear reactor at Arak–which is intended to produce plutonium and tritium—and the nearby heavy water production facility; the nuclear fuel production facilities at Isfahan and facilities for enriching uranium-hexaflouride. Others would explode under-ground, as at the Fordo facility.
A barrage of hundreds of cruise missiles will pound command and control systems, research and development facilities, and the residences of senior personnel in the nuclear and missile development apparatus. Intelligence gathered over years will be utilized to completely decapitate Iran’s professional and command ranks in these fields.
After the first wave of attacks, which will be timed to the second, the “Blue and White” radar satellite, whose systems enable us to perform an evaluation of the level of damage done to the various targets, will pass over Iran. Only after rapidly decrypting the satellite’s data, will the information be transferred directly to war planes making their way covertly toward Iran. These IAF planes will be armed with electronic warfare gear previously unknown to the wider public, not even revealed to our U.S. ally. This equipment will render Israeli aircraft invisible. Those Israeli war planes which participate in the attack will damage a short-list of targets which require further assault.
Among the targets approved for attack—Shihab 3 and Sejil ballistic missile silos, storage tanks for chemical components of rocket fuel, industrial facilities for producing missile control systems, centrifuge production plants and more.
While the level of specificity in this document is, in some senses, impressive, in one critical aspect it is deficient. Muhammad Sahimi points out that the current chief of the Revolutionary Guards, when he assumed his position in 2007, deliberately addressed the issue of over-centralization of command and control by dividing the nation into 31 districts. Each of these has its own independent command and control facilities and mechanisms. So Israel wouldn’t be able to knock out a single facility and paralyze the IRG. They’d need to knock out 31 separate sets of facilities–a much harder task.
There seems also to be an assumption that Iran’s leaders and nuclear specialists live nice domestic lives and that Israeli intelligence knows where they all live and can easily target them. In truth, the most senior Iranian military and scientific figures live clandestine lives and it’s hard for me to believe even the Mossad knows where they are and how to target them.
So it appears that Netanyahu believes he’s fighting Saddam circa 2003. During that war, the Iraqi Revolutionary Guards were centralized and knocking out one C&C center could decapitate the entire military apparatus. But Iran has learned from Saddam’s mistakes. It isn’t fighting the last war as Bibi appears to be. It is preparing for the next one. While Israel may have new tricks up its sleeve that no one in the world has yet seen, if it doesn’t understand the nature of the enemy, its defenses, its structure, etc. then it can’t win.
News Alert: I’ve just been interviewed by BBC Newshour’s Julian Marshall and anticipate they will air a segment about this story at 1:30PM UK time and at 9:30AM east coast time (6:30AM west coast). I’m not sure which time it will air in Israel, but I believe it would be 3:30PM. If your NPR station airs BBC World Service you should hear it. I don’t know if it will be repeated any other times during the day. You can tell me that if you hear it.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/K43L6FH7R5KPZGYKO6FDOBXE5U.jpg)
This is certainly well beyond “a few bombs on the nuke sites.”
If Iran’s leaders REALLY belive that an Israeli attack is inevitable, why should they not strike first?
because we iranians are not the aggressors and the terrorists your country makes us to be.
Good luck with your isis.
Barak has never started a war, and bibi too. They are both scared to death. They will not start a war with Iran. No way.
Fascinating!
Do you plan to publish the original document, in Hebrew, or just this translated summary?
Glad to see they’re completely delusional. The crazier they are, the more dissenting voices we’ll see coming out of the woodworks. But, the ‘invisible planes’ take the cake though… Maybe they can hide Tel-Aviv and Haifa too when the missiles start raining down.
Positively pornographic they way these people think about war-mongering…not a mangled child to be seen in their glistening penile projections…and they are increasingly in control of our media with their ‘normalisation’ program. Orwell would have to whistle in horrified admiration.
Thank you, Tikun, for this interesting post. Not that I’m an expert, but it seems like this is an intentional leakage meant to give Bibi the tough militant image (like the rumor that he was involved with Mossad, which I’m sure his campaigners thrive on..). A friend convinced me with a view that instead of an attack on Iran, Israel will attack a much more justifiable target like Syria. They will find or create some kind of reason to attack Assad the Baby Killer before elections. We’ll probably see another Sabra and Shatila Massacre long before a full-fledged missile take-down with Iran.
In this light, I believe the anti-war rhetoric shouldn’t be around a question of feasibility – i.e. can an attack on Iran succeed – but around questions of humanity, imperialism, power-crazed capitalists etc. Anyway, keep up your anti-war-militarism-capitalism shtuff.
“justifiable” Did you really mean that? How in all the universe is Syria any more justifiable than Iran?
FYI, I heard the BBC story around 9am EST on Vermont Public Radio.
Publishing this sort of “war plan” is quite a controversial decision by you and I’d like to hear what you were thinking before you decided to publish it. Assuming it’s true, publishing this sort of document is a huge hit to Israel’s security. If for example Iran starts a war with Israel and Israel fights back (which I assume even you would support), you just significantly hurt its ability to fight back and protect itself.
What piffle. This is not an actual war plan but only a drawing-board pipe dream. Its value lies in showing the world the bellicose and delusional mindset of Israel’s president. It’s damn terrifying.
The President is Peres he is Nobel Peace prize winner….This plan was published in the Vanity Fair magazine about a year ago. It was written by a former director of the IDF named Halutz for Olmert during the Bush administration and was discarded as too radical.
Nonsense.
If the Israeli government bombs Iran, then Iran will attack US ships in the “bath-tub” (as a US naval officer, who served in Gulf War I, calls it). That worries me. Certainly, it annoys the US government, which “leaked” a Pentagon war-gaming exercise in which Israel launches just this sort of attack, the Iranians sink two US ships, and the US invades Iran. Notice that Iran is about three times the size of Iraq, and imagine what happens next.
Obvious message from the Pentagon leak: don’t start a war for us.
Very interesting development. I have been following this debacle since 1948 aged 14. Hellfire and damnation is the only outcome. I wish the civilians on both the very best of luck.
Respectfully –
Why has no other journalist gotten ‘hold of this information?
What steps will you take to allow verification of the original document?
Other than the BBC, why has no other news outlet run with this?
Again, my questions are respectfully asked. If true, this is very distressing, as it is a form of coercion on a national level – FORCING the US to follow a unilateral action by Israel that will lead us into war, one which will make the conflicts of the past ten years look like only prologue.
There is one issues about Israel’s foreseen attack I am still struggling with:
Why do I get the feeling our leaders believe that after the attack there will be no retaliation? Do they honestly believe that a full war will not brake? That after the plans fly over iran, the Iranian government will see its wrong ways and ask for forgiveness?
loooool!
here’s the “original top secret” document:
http://www.fresh.co.il/vBulletin/showthread.php?t=567269#post4282787
for those who cannot read hebrew, this is an imaginary post in an israeli forum posted in 2002(!!) describing word by word what richard wrote. once again, richard “high level” source made him look like a fool. lol!
That’s actually a false statement which indicates how sloppy you are. Portions of the document I published are contained in the Fresh posting of 2002. Of course the IDF uses portions of its briefing memos for presentations and updates them as they develop new weapons systems. That’s what all militaries do. In 2002, they produced a document which was leaked to Fresh. The document I published contains other information that is not in the Fresh posting and the Fresh posting contains highly fictionalized scenarios which are not in the document I posted.
No, it is not 2002 but 11 August this year and seems (Google translate) very close to what you have, with some additional material (how Hezbollah will respond, peace will guide the planets, and love will steer the stars, etc.–indeed highly fictionalized!). But it is more as if both are versions of the same text edited by different people. Maariv now has a version of the story but it is entirely from you: http://www.nrg.co.il/online/1/ART2/395/489.html?hp=1&cat=875&loc=1
As I wrote in my update, what’s in Fresh and what’s in my document contains some overlap, but much in my document is not in anything published by anyone at Fresh.
omg, how is it that you dont understand someone is playing you?
anyhow, i like it. it just perpetuate your poor credibility.
Erp…
If the Israeli military censorship allowed this to pass, it probably isn’t for real.
Remember what they did in Dec. 2008 to an issue of Haaretz which cited *real* operatonal plans for “Cast Lead” and had already gone to the printing press.
But who knows… let’s look what happens to the Maariv article over the next few hours.
sorry, posted a few days ago.
Man proposes God disposes, all those people and states which rose to power and persisted for sometime finaly perished because nothing is imortal less Allah himself. There is always a limit to kill innocent humans. This time i guess Israil is faced with a tought enemy, may be surprised and might be eliminated by herself being smaller in size. I guess israil must think twice before attacking Iran. Moreover it will have repercussion for the complete world which is already seeing diwindling economies, shortage of food, failure of uno and humanterian help where a crises occures in the world. We cannot be insensitive to the sufferings of humanity for a long time there got to be some world org to help and solve interstate problems and promote peace. Present mood of states will ensure mutual destruction.
“Bibi’s sleight of hand here involves no mention whatsoever of an Iranian counter-attack against Israel. The presumption must be that the bells and whistles of all those marvelous new weapons systems will decapitate Iran’s war-making ability and render it paralyzed. The likelihood of this actually happening is nearly nil.”
– Unless they expect or know that the US will stand with them.
To be perfectly honest I would expect a much higer level of precision and form from an official document like this one would supposed to be.
Informations like the one in the document are easily available on the net and there is nothing there hinting we are witnessing something real.
If this is their war planning, they’ve got problems: it offers no speculation on what resistance they might meet, what resources are available to their opponents. All it is is a list of self-glorifying threats, much like the ones heard in kindergarten and the very first years of school.
It’s basically a movie script. Or as they say in Israel – הם חיים בסרט – they’re living in their own personal movie.
Why would they want to posture in this way? Are they trying to draw an attack to themselves, and then cry for mercy/assistance? Preschool tactics there, sibling rivalry playing for a large parent. I hope that’s not the plan.
I think it’s a terrible indictment of civilisation that we have been led into a position whereby Israel can basically be so open and bold about attacking another country —based on highly spurious and dubious claims — and the media, except for Mr Silverstein, etc. (who do a good job of balanced writing) go along with it, with little to no criticism.
Whew, run-on sentence there 🙂
It’s rather safe to bet that Barak is significantly less intelligent than he wants us to believe.
It’s even safer to bet he’s not nearly as pathetically stupid as to author, let alone implement or even seriously consider such wishfully-thought, childish wet dream.
This whole war-on-Iran-one-of-these-mornings saga is cheap diversion tactic for both internal and external purposes: Diversion of Israeli public opinion from the acutely worsening economy coupled with the fast migration of all wealth into the hands of very few oligarchs.
Diversion of international public opinion from mass illegal settlements and ever more blatant apartheid in the occupied territories.
An extra bonus is the hoped for damage to Obama’s re-election campaign which, in turn, wouldn’t go unrewarded by the Old Men of Vegas.
That’s such an appropriate locus of power for a situation where there’s gambling going on – even if the stakes are a nuclear war.
I’m just amazed, and shocked at the sheer brazen attitude by Israel on Iran. What on earth are people doing about the overt threat of attacking another nation based on rhetoric created purely by the US and Israel, as well as the UK? Nothing. Nowhere, not once has Iran ever stated they are building any nuclear weapons; they have hardly even finished building their nuclear power stations, which are for purely domestic energy purposes. Yet, we are treated to this daily, one-sided view of Iran as some threat to the world, rhetoric which comes purely from the US and Israel.
I don’t see the UN condemning Israel for such threats, and now with actual plans laid bare for all to see, the UN are silent. Oh, I’m sure they will come out with messages of restraint, etc. whilst they secretly build up plans for a “post-war Iran.” Sound familiar? Same story with Syria, Libya, etc.
I wouldn’t blame Iran if they launched a strike first, since it’s their national security at risk here; their nation, and using Obama’s bullshit words on protecting sovereign rights, then Iran has every right to do what they can to stop the very real threat, the very out-spoken threat from Israel.
of course, as an ex-israeli, I hope they don’t and I really hope Israel doesn’t stirring up more trouble which is entirely self-created now.
Then there’s the MSM. They just spit out words which clearly aim to steer the reader into thinking Iran is a threat, and they are about to launch nuclear strikes all over the universe. There’s no examination of Israel/US accusations. Nothing. They just trumpet a few lines about Iran wanting a peaceful nuclear programme, et.c and all in a byline.
We should be defending Iran over their right to do as they please as long as it doesn’t affect others in a harmful way. Obama is a puppet.
‘The madman strategy can be related to Niccolò Machiavelli, who, in his Discourses on Livy (book 3, chapter 2) discusses how it is at times “a very wise thing to simulate madness”.’
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory
Now, what were we talking about before? Oh yes, the occupation.
Mr. Silverstein,
Allow me first to state, lest there be any doubt, that I categorically reject and abhor your screeds, since you have long since gravitated(despite whatever claims you may have) from the Zionist camp.
I would like, if I may, second Vova’s comment. The post, on “Fresh”, is from August the 11th, 2012(!). A few days ago; Nothing about 2002, and nothing about the “IDF reusing old material”(blah-blah-blah)…
It is therefore, either a deliberate act of plagiarism, or wilful duping; Certainly devoid, however, of anything “Investigative” or “truthful”.(Not to mention that it matches your post, Verbatim)
Please, in the interest of protecting your own reputation(which, I must shamefully admit, I sincerely hope that by your own hands you will tarnish), retract your ridiculous claims.
(Also, you would no doubt be happy to know, that a true journalist, Ben Caspit, in Ma’ariv, recently reported that there hasn’t been an extended-cabinet meeting for past few months re Iran, nor any new information supplied to it, ruling out any sudden “revelation”, by your so-called “source”).
I apologize, for my rudeness; but in your slander of Israel, apparently, lying is never a step too far.
http://www.nrg.co.il/online/1/ART2/394/441.html (the Ben Caspit story).
Thanks for correcting my impressions about the Fresh posting. I’ve updated what I published to reflect my understanding of what happened regarding the Fresh posting. But every commenter who claims that the Fresh posting and what I’ve published here are verbatim are dead wrong.
Richard, as a Hebrew speaker, I can testify that you’re wrong and that you posted the exact same thing as the Fresh post (except in English). You’re right that the Fresh post has some extra statements, but in misses none of what your translation includes, and was written a few days ahead of you… It seems like your “source” just sent you a copy of the Fresh post.
This is what it looked like to me using google translate.
I wonder how identical the “original” hebrew is.
What’s the story behind the “Fresh post”?
Original Hebrew please.
The terms under which I was given the document don’t allow me to make the original available publicly. But I’ll check on that again & see if those conditions have changed.
How convenient. And since when have you cared about terms and responsibility? Didn’t you claim that “exposing the truth” has a higher moral value than abiding by top secret classifications?
Hypocrite.
[Anyone who lies about me and my actions will be banned as have you]
Hundreds of cruise missiles.
Launched from what?
A Dolphin Class is not a Virginia Class with its twelve dedicated cruise missile tubes, and Israel does not have even these by the dozen, and it doesn’t have large fleet of surface combatants capable of launching cruise missiles, either.
If they mean air-launched cruise missiles, that’s the Israeli air force fully occupied.
Either they are planning to launch them from mobile ground launchers in Israel, or they planning something like the US Navy’s (abandoned) Arsenal Ship concept, whereby a large transport vessel is stuffed full of cruise missile launchers and very little else.
Or, the barrage of hundreds of cruise missiles is a fantasy.
Yes, the memo was not leaked on purpose, i guess the entire world is stupid. This memo was leaked specifically to add to the bluffing the Israelis have bee doing, and the only reason for this propaganda is to involve the US. Israel would not DARE attack Iran knowing its already surrounded by Iranian forces and all these plans would go down the drain when Iran and Hezbollah destroys Israel.
Israle is just like a bully, bullying its neighbors for decades and crying of to daddy if one of those bullied countries stands up to it. Well hoping that daddy does not respond to these heeds this time around and let Israel settle its matters on its own.
Please please Israel the rest of the world begs you to go ahead with the strikes without the US support. go ahead if you have the bb’s.
I think your image is appropriate: “Israle (sic) is just like a bully, bullying its neighbors for decades and crying of (sic) to daddy if one of those bullied countries stands up to it.”
This may very well be a document describing actual Israeli plans.
However, anybody with a minimum background in military matters could come up with the same identical scenario. It’s all very generic and routine. There isn’t a single piece of information in this “document” that is truly unique or new. Of course you would start with a cyber attack, of course you would try to eliminate air defenses and command and control installations, of course you would use missiles, of course you would want to do some damage assessment before you go to the next phase.
I could come up with a much more detailed scenario in an afternoon of searching the web, with names, equipments, units, pictures, etc. It might even sound plausible.
you should admit that you had a complete FAIL on this one. The document you posted is almost identical, word to word, with few added names, to a post in an hebrew forum of people who discuss army issues. That post was by the admin of that forum and he said it is a scenario his friend wrote and it is written according to open sources ONLY (news reports and the web), about how a succsesful attack on iran would look like. It has nothing to do with the real IDF plans for an attack or iran.
the fake scenario in that forum and your “leaked document” were posted in the same week, they contain almost the same lines (the fake scenario contains some more lines that show clearly that it is fake), and they are identincal in that lines almost word to word. be rational.
This war is pure madness. If we could live with a nuclear US, France, Britain, India, Pakistan, North Korea….we can live with a nuclear Iran….if indeed they ever became a nuclear power.
The madness of the leaders is their stating the war will be limited in retaliation from the Iranians. Iran has a strong military and they will respond. This war will be catastrophic globally. This is not Syria nor Iraq nuclear facilities. Syria and Iraq had little response back but an attack on Iran will be different. This is also not the previous wars Israel has been involved in which were short lived. These are different times and the blowback effects will be far different than what the leadership seems to envision. Perhaps I could use the term of the American and Israeli leadership being delusional.
I don’t think it takes much one to study the world and realize that this war on Iran will be a disaster. This won’t be like the ‘mild’ Iraq war…..the Iranians are not going to roll over and submit to western demands. They will fight and use everything at their disposal. I have little doubt that this war will result in US warships being sunk. Imagine a US carrier sinking below the waters.
And imagine the economy. Globally it is not good now and it will be a depression once the war starts.
I just fail to see how the ‘leaders’ estimate low casualties and a 30 day war. This war is just pure madness.
Saddam thought his war with Iran would be short too. Netanyahu is stupid to think Iran won’t keep coming at Israel if it is attacked.
Seems to leave out a China and Russian response to an Israeli attack. I deem it false. We know the United States is supposed to take the brunt of Israeli aggression.
This is not the attack plan. It was leaked intentionally by Israel as a decoy or to capture a suspected leak. It will be many years before you hear form your “source” again.
Whats my consern is, not the firepower, obviously they all have anouf.
No, its the utter maddnes to bomb fasilitys with nuclear materials, in what ever form, and Iran have several low grade fasilitys, and when they brag about Bunkebusters, my first image is a kilometer high dust/nuclear isotops flung up into the higher atmosphers. The Iraq war was with its polutions global. Of course dilutet but stil global.
If apox 50-70 storage/producing fasilitys in pulverised, and all the fallouts from that bombing wil even be a problem for a lott of naboring counrtys. The outcome of this is highly unclear, and this is No juke, its a highly dangerous game.
And why IS Israel alowed to threat and maim whom ever they want, its something realy weird going on, the hypocrasyis mindboggeling, so the propaganda.
peace
Richard, you say “much in my document is not in anything published by anyone at Fresh”
Can you give us an example of something in your document that was not published by anyone at Fresh? Why are you holding back this material? I ask because I’ve just read the Fresh post and everything you published above is directly lifted from it.
I made a commitment at the time I accepted the document not to publish the Hebrew version. Until I’m freed from that commitment, I can’t violate it. But if you read the fantasy Fresh version and compare it to my English translation you’ll see the huge differences between them.
I don’t deny that the Fresh member had the document in his possession, just that he quoted snippets of it & ladled on large helpings of fantasy and nonsense in order to cover the fact that he was publishing (in small part) a government document.
If the Israeli state is fearful that an important document has been leaked, they might well decide to leak a second version with such fanciful additions that the new material will serve to discredit whatever was accurate in the first version. (It’s been done before, especially regarding planning with a strong political dimension.) But the first document doesn’t sound like a plan–it sounds more like notes for a presentation to the eight-member security cabinet that Bibi will try to sell the Iran war to. Still, even if that’s true it would be a good indication of the way Bibi is thinking.
The whole thing might be intended for consumption by the Americans as well as the security cabinet.
Even so, it has the kind of arrogance we have gotten used to with the Likudniks. They want to impress the security cabinet (or the Americans) with a particular passion for war with Iran, so they dump this sci-fi stuff on them, just to show how crazy they can be. And their American neo-con proxies are doing the same in the US.
I’m sorry for my very stupid question, but where’s the translated document mentioned in this post? I’ve searched this whole blog but didn’t find it. Thanks for Your replies in advance.
You didn’t notice a 500 word passage in blockquotes???
You write in such a hateful manner. The material presented is so interesting, true or false, we can’t know but your presentation is so lopsided, so apparent how you detest the country and its leaders. Thats your prerogative. One’s impression from your interpretation of the absence of any reference to the potential counter attack from Iran is some sadness within you that bombs and missiles won’t rain down on Israel. Pathetic human being you must be.
Israel has been threatening an attack on Iran everyday for months, even years. If ever a first strike for “preventive war” were justifiable (it is not), Iran would have the right to strike Israel first and now. Whether as counter strike or first strike, bombs over Israel are no more unthinkable than bombs over Iran and, if Israel does attack that state, Israel would justly suffer the consequences and my own feeling would be that they had it coming. That makes me a “pathetic human being”, as well. Israel goes on bullying everyone in the neighborhood (and on the world stage) and sooner or later will earn its comeuppance and that is right and good. Once chastened by destruction in Israel, the state might behave within civilized norms rather than striking out all the time and killing thousands, and then maybe make a just peace, something it does not seek, nor has sought, in our time.
You and Joel can worry about a nuclear strike on Israel, but Iran is not irrational and would not will its own demise. Only desperate circumstances, it is supposed, would get Israel to launch nuclear weapons, so why should Iran be any different? Only desperation would call for nuclear holocaust in both cases. Israel should apply itself to preventing such desperate scenarios, not encouraging them by making war as the aggressor. Sooner or later, Iran will have the bomb and will be no more a threat than China, France, Pakistan, India or Russia, no more no less.
The tragedy here the paranoia of Israeli thinking that everyone must die in the surrounding states so that Israel can live. This calculation is unsound, even sick and wrong. And guys like you and Joel go on promoting such thinking, further isolating Israel (if that were possible!), further tending to war, further making Israel unsafe ever, leading to more paranoia. Israel is the prime victim of its own practices and policies. It is stealing the West Bank from others and then crying that everyone hates them and the US must protect them. They create their isolation and sickness. Too bad, eventually bombs will rain down on Israel and it will be hard to call down sympathy as that is what Israel is calling down for decades to excuse its intolerable aggression and racism.
The world can not affort this war. If Istrael attacks, Iran will be forced to strike back. The US will almost certainly join Istrael… Who knows what role Russia and/or China may play… This, right here, might grow into World War 3. I don’t think anyone wants that.
Do we care that you were interviewed by the BBC? You play right into the hands of one of the most anti-Semitic media outlets in the world. In your quest for 15 minutes of “fame” you sacrifice your fellow Jews. What would you say to the survivors of an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel? Such an attack could well happen because your blog and media exposure due to a “document”–real or fabricated–will have hampered Israel’s abilities to protect itself from the hate-mongering Iranians! Well…you own this site–go ahead and bar my comment…
Lets say someone actualy gave that to you and not expecting being arested for atleast 5 years for leaking secret documents, and lets say that this document actualy exist(i would like to see a photo of the original paper, written in hebrew, signed by netnayahu\barak)
so lets leave all that out and say that this is real, what the olternative to the attack? waiting for them to aquire a nuke bomb and see if their threats are real or not? hoping they wont attack us?
dont get me wrong, i dont want war, ive only lived long enough to be in one, and thats one to many, i am still traumatic, but again there is no olternative to the attack, its either fight for our lives, or just let them take them, ofcurse there will be a war, with iran, with hizbala, with hamas, and it will be hard and people will die, but think of how much people will die from the nuke, 200,000 people? 300,000?
war casualtis in sevillience life never reach to 100(but even 1 is to many)
if you my genious friend have an olternative to the attack, i would like you to right an article presenting it!
“so lets leave all that out and say that this is real, what the olternative to the attack? waiting for them to aquire a nuke bomb and see if their threats are real or not? hoping they wont attack us? ”
By ‘us’ who do you mean exactly? Do you mean the west (USA, UK etc) who all have a nuclear deterrent and with that Iran would be stupid to push their button first. Do you mean Israel who also have a nuclear arsenal and are already hovering over their big red button with several war heads pointed in Iran’s direction?
Iran is, IMO, only trying to defend itself and protect itself from the same fate that has fallen on Iraq (3 times), Afghanistan (twice), Grenada, Panama… the list of US intervention is huge. Then you have, what most civilised people see as, the illegal occupation of Gaza by Israel and now Israel putting pressure on Egypt as well.
I for one, as a Scottish born, Scottish bred, Scotsman with no religious or political connections to either country involved, believe that Israel must be pulled into check and made to pull out of the lands it is occupying illegally while also being stripped of its nuclear capability. Israel IMO is the largest threat to the Middle East and the most aggressive country in the region. Israel feels safe and secure because it has the backing of its big brother the good old US of A. Both countries are out of control, both countries accuse others of doing to them the atrocities they are actually carrying out on a daily basis in Gaza, Afghanistan and Iraq. We’ve all seen the footage of Israeli tanks and planes flattening Gaza, we’ve all seen the pictures of US soldiers stripping Iraqi prisoners and making them stack themselves up in some circus act. We know torture is second nature to both the US and Israel and we know that the US has broken several international human rights treaties in the name of a war on terror they actually nurtured themselves.
The real threat to piece doesnt come from Iran it comes from Israel and the US.
Do you think, Richard, you are not violating a law by publishing information provided to you illegally? I am sure whoever leaked this document (assuming it’s not fake) signed appropriate non-disclosure forms.
I admire your courage, and also that of your source!
Isreal can “talk the talk” but even if Nutinyahoo were to try to “walk the walk” it could not, would not succeed.
In their so called attempt at an attack on Iran, Isreal would only insure Iran had Nukes handed to them.
There are US Military leader that will not allow this foolhardy endevour to take place.
Netanyahu will only succeed in becoming Isreali’s X-leader whose name will go down in INFAMY!
When does Russia send those S-300 anti-aircraft batteries to Iran? – it seems like now might be a good time
Israel Has already flow against Greek Air Force s300 SAMs in practice and it is a assured bet that Israeli technicians were crawling all over them several years ago.
Greece got their models of S-300 1998 and after the bitter complaining of Russia in the aftermath of the “Glorious Spartan” exercise 2008 about the cooperation of Greece with Israel, I don’t think Greece got or gets the latest updates to the system. there’s been some improvements since…the question is rather whether Iran actually got the system yet from Russia. If so, rest assured the Russians will do their utmost to demonstrate to the world the efficiency of their best anti-air system as a kind of export advertisment. Israel has impressive jamming etc. abilities, but Iran is not Syria (2007) and prolonged jamming for hours or even 1-2 days would be necessary. That’s difficult even for Israel, expecially over such a distance. btw, last week Panetta kindly relaid to Israel that Saudi Arabia is going to shoot down any Israeli airplanes coming their way (as long as the US has not given a green light for an attack). This means the air defense of two countries would have to be supressed and one of them can’t be attacked. difficult…
I ask even if Silversteins information is
True what are his motives for distributing it and
Sharing it with a Pro islamic publication
In Uk?
Michael Burd
Melbourne
The BBC is pro-Islamic? Ugh.
BBC has long had a reputation and of being pro Arab.
In fact a investigation prop ed it to be true. The BBC now has a specific office that monitors its fairness of reporting vis Avis the middle east.
The BBC is not “pro Arab.” The only people who make such laughable claims are those Israeli supporters who take an ounce of criticism as if it was anti-Semitism voiced by Satan himself.
Wow, everyone who doesn’t buy the “a land without a people” or the “we made the desert bloom” is pro-Arab ?
“Dispatches: Inside Britain’s Israel Lobby”
From minute 35:00 it’s dealing with the BBC:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0E70BwA7xgU
Oh, and just in case: the “Arab-looking” guy right at the beginning is Israeli-British historian Avi Shlaïm, of Iraqi origin, and professor at Oxford.
Maybe a pro Israeli paper wouldn’t give this ‘leak’ such a high profile?
I was just in Israel…and lived there for nearly 30 years….the situation is tense and scary.
Netanyahu does not want Obama to win the election and is doing everything he can to push him into a corner.
Silly in a way as Obama has turned out to be the biggest ‘giver’ and supporter of any recent US president.
But in Israel we don’t like ‘blacks’….Note that all the top leadership are from European/Anglo Saxon descent, except for the odd Mofaz, so that we can maintain political correctness.
Also a war is a quick fix for internal unrest…it is an old and established rule of thumb that is a constant thru out Israel’s short and war torn turbulent history. There have been enough unnecessary wars there to see a clear pattern. Israel, thru force of habit sees every solution thru the prism of war…There is no belief or real desire by the Israeli leadership for peace…from all sides of the political spectrum. making peace means giving up the dream of a ‘greater Israel’…and not one leader is willing to do that…brave enough to do that. The answer as we know is…’blowing in the (nuclear) wind’?
If the translation is at all correct, then your document is a fake. First of all, Israeli submarines don’t carry ballistic missiles. Secondly, for Israeli submarines to get to the Persian Gulf to fire any missiles (SLCM’s, not ballistic missiles) they’ll have to go through the Suez which would set alarm bells off around the world and prevent tactical surprise – assuming the Egyptians would authorize the transit. Third, the document’s description of cluster munitions is simply wrong. Finally, the target list is quite obviously beyond Israeli capabilities. They barely have enough aircraft to strike the main nuclear-related targets, much less all the other stuff mentioned in this paper.
Got news for you, Israel’s Dolphin submarines can fire ballistic missiles. Second, Israel subs have already traveled through the Canal and are on patrol near the Gulf.
No, Israeli submarines cannot fire ballistic missiles – they can fire cruise missiles. Big difference.
Second, yes, they can go through the canal assuming Egypt lets them, which they haven’t always allowed. More importantly, this scenario assumes they ALL go through the canal to the Gulf because that’s the only way to even approach the claim of “hundreds” of cruise missile launches. In reality it would be, in the best case, closer to “dozens” of launches. Of course if Egypt allows the transit, Iran will know the game is up (and so will everyone else – one can’t make secret submarine transits of the canal) and there goes the element of surprise.
These aren’t the only problems with this document. This document was obviously written by an amateur with limited knowledge of actual weapon capabilities and no experience with actual war planning.
History books tell us that European ships reached Persian Gulf centuries before Suez Canal was build, so we should check geography if Israeli submarines can do it too. If I recall, the first European ships there were from Portugal, so perhaps Israeli submarines can reach Portugal? I just know history, not geography, and Google maps, alas, have no option “sail, avoid canals”.
Dolphins have been modified to fire nuclear warheads. My understanding was that nuclear warheads were carried on ballistic missiles though I could be wrong.
The “hundreds” of cruise missiles I think was a gross exaggeration on the part of the document author. I doubt Israel has access to that many unless the U.S. is stocking up for them.
I don’t agree with you about the author. Or at least the substance of the document and the military systems referenced. While the premises of the document are deeply flawed, the weapons systems, I believe, are real. And again, I’ve vetted this with at least two sources who have very long experience in this area, both of whom said that the weapons systems were credible. Listen to Jonathan Marcus of the BBC discuss it in the audio of the Newshour program. He’s skeptical, but even he realizes there is authenticity here.
Richard,
Israel’s submarine-based nuclear deterrent is based on a modified Popeye cruise missile that’s fired from the Dolphin submarine’s 650cm torpedo tubes. Each sub has four such tubes. The subs also have six 533cm tubes that can fire smaller cruise missiles with shorter range and smaller warheads.
OK, no ballistic missiles fired from the Dolphins. But cruises with nuclear warheads are sufficiently powerful to do the trick.
No liar, Dolphins CAN NOT fire ballistic missiles.
The Dolphins firing tubes have been modified by Israel & they indeed can. You haven’t been reading the media or this blog. Before calling me a liar, a firing offense around here, you ought to do better research.
There is obviously an important reason why Israel wanted this story leaked. What is that reason?
There are people in Israel who are genuinely oppose the attack, because it will bring to the end Israel…as simple as that.
Yes indeed, it’s aimed at those, who substitute Syria and its (russian) aerial reconnaissance and defence for Iran. The IAF will attack Hezbollah / Lebanon in due time to give Romney a chance to win the elections or, otherwise, to force Obama to clean up the mess in his second term instead of trying to scheme against zionist ME hegemony.
To those who not follow military issues, the “document” may seem real.
However it reads as poor grade fiction. (note the translation seems to be superb.)
Just based on public record information the document lacks the gravitas of any professionally written briefing.
300 kilometer ballistic missiles??? Ah the author was confused. They maybe referring to submarine launched Harpoon cruise missiles which have a range of less then 300k. Or perhaps they are referring to the cruise missile launched by the Israeli Navy that had a range of approx 1,500 kilometers. ( Note it may be a version of the Israeli Popeye missile).Again not a naval launched ballistic missile.
Israel definitely has 3 operational Dolphin class submarines. A fourth was delivered in may 2012 and it’s operational status is not clear.
Each submarine has 10 torpedo tubes of 2 different sizes. 6x 20″ tubes and 4 x 26″ tubes.
That means a total of 30 first strike missile or torpedoes.we must assume that some of the 26″ tubes armed with Israels second strike weapon,nuclear bombs. Israel must also keep at least one submarine in the Mediterranean.
How many cruise missile tubes are available? How big is that target list?
Note Israel does have land based cruise and ballistic missiles. Most of Israels ballistic missiles are part of the anti ballistic missile system.
Forget about the 31 regional IRC command and control centers most will be irrelevant to the mission..
Here are more things left of the target list. The list of known nuclear related centers. A listing of public ally unknown nuclear sites. Antiaircraft radar and missile sites. Air force bases.chemical weapons sites. Nobody would end such a briefing with the words ” and more” .
Making a fatefull decision for your country requires detailed information including estimated enemy and friendly casualty counts.
No mention of the IAFs Shaldag unit for exacting targeting?
No mention of unit 609 dispersement to rescue downed pilots?
No ingress or egress plans for the IAF strike packages?
No mention of the composition of the aircraft and the specific weapons on each plane.
How many planes for air defense vs strike planes?
No mention of armed or unarmed UAVs over the targets?
Don’t need to kill the top leaders of the Iranian nuclear program. Just need to take out a big hunk of the middle level Iranians involved in the program.
As a briefing document to be presented to 8 men who are familiar with the terms of war and war planning this document no matter who the source is doesn’t amount to a readers guide version on which to base a decision.
Sub Harpoon missiles are anti-ship weapons, with a coastal attack variant (which I am not sure that Israel has?)
The “cruise” missile launched from submarines at far inland targets is the Tomahawk.
The Israeli navy would need access to the Caspian Sea to use Harpoons on Iran’s nuclear industry.
A Dolphin might carry thirty-odd weapons of all sorts, but salvos are limited by the number of tubes, and simply cruising around, reloading and firing non-stop to saturate defences with a swarm of missiles, is not a survival strategy for the submarine, to put it mildly.
The American Virginia Class has twelve dedicated vertical Harpoon/Tomahawk tubes, which allows all twelve to be fired in less than a minute, followed by a prompt exit from the area at maximum quiet speed. In theory they could also launch the older kind of sub Tomahawk or Harpoon missile from their four torpedo tubes, but the US Navy has largely stopped buying these.
Royal Navy Swiftsure and Trafalgar class boats with five 21″ tubes have never done other than fire a salvo of up to five Tomahawks then move quietly away from the (very obvious, to both hydrophones and radar) scene of the launch. The new Astute class have a much bigger “torpedo” room and can carry a greater range of weapons at once, but only six tubes. (More holes would make it noisy at speed.)
The two American Seawolf Class boats have no dedicated missile tubes and eight 21″ tubes, being entirely dedicated to defeating the most sophisticated submarines. The Astutes come as close as possible to the Seawolf’s underwater combat capability (though it’s claimed they have better sensors) whilst still providing adequate but not overwhelming land attack and special forces insertion capacity. The Astute’s Spearfish torpedoes can attack surface targets at something approaching the range of the original sub-Harpoon missile (which was only 100km odd) so it’s not clear if Sub-Harpoons are still carried as a matter of routine, though they are clearly in stock and usable.
The Dolphin’s trouble, though, is that if it takes sensible evasive measures between each salvo of cruise missiles, it’s going to run out of submerged operating time before it can launch as many as thirty missiles, even with the German technology that has been built in to allow extended time underwater.
When reality replaces hype, the Dolphin class offers less strike potential than the Swiftsure boats which the Royal Navy has retired, and on most measures would be less effective than the Churchill class boats which they retired years before.
Some of today’s papers quote a “thirty day war” and that would be the upper limit of a Dolphin’s ability to sustain combat, assuming that it could safely deploy a snorkel every five days or so. A Virginia Class or an Astute could present a sustained threat for six months, although the Virginia Class cannot, as far as I know, reload the vertical missile tubes underwater.
Should the war turn out not to be over in thirty days, Israel would be completely stuffed and the Israeli population would be living in tents at Heathrow pending flights and immigration clearance for the United States.
It is possible to see why some Arab states are willing to encourage an Israeli attack on Iran: “killing two birds with one stone” may even be a Saudi proverb.
This is categorically not NOT a cabinet briefing document by any modern government – it reads like a war game scenario written by a 22 year old battleship nerd with too much Hollywood and computer time down. ignore. everyone else will
Stupid enough for Richard to write that Bibi remained in 2003 but he has weapons that neither the American know about !
Where were you Mr. Silverstein in 1991 when Iraq attacked Israel ? Probably in a secure place, writing on your blof.
Stupid thoughts of a “peace lover”. Haven’t found nothing in your blog of the happenings in Syria !!
Tikun?
Dirty language and graphics
The rhetorical style reminds me of Jewish-Ultra-Orthodox pashkeviles…
Itzik Sivosh
M.Sc., MBA
Tel-Aviv
Still waiting for response to my question above . anyone ??
Behr, I take it you have proof that Israel leaked this ‘alleged stuff” or this this the usual Left wing, Arabist. islamist , self hating Jewish conspiracy ?
Michael Burd
In Arabic, the letter “T” comes” right after “B”, and without the dots they look alike. So Arabist, Islamist would have no problems converting “Burd” into “Turd”…..
It is hard to take your posts seriously if you contemptuously knock any political/social ideology that does not suit your world view ‘…the usual Left wing, Arabist. islamist , self hating Jewish conspiracy ?’…or in other words…you are not a believer in democracy…which I am sure you deny aggressively. Believing in democracy is about respect for other’s ideas, you don’t have to agree, you must tho’ acknowledge, otherwise it is called bullying.
By the way Israel is an Israeli state not a Jewish state, tho many people won’t accept that…so this has nothing to do with Jews…even tho’ the Israeli jews are doing all in their power to bunch us all together in one bundle.
Israel is a self-proclaimed, self-insistent “Jewish State.” It would be nice if this were not true and the state operated as a true democracy, everyone enjoying the same rights and having the same obligations. But it is not true. It is up to world Jewry to prove that Israel’s self-definition is unacceptable, as it should be.
These Israelis are dreaming in the world of fictions. LOL
Fact… Iranian have their own electronic warfare against US/Israel no one knows about.
These guys are still dreaming of their superiority esp those planes which most likely would not return
back to base.
How much can the first strike damage? Negligible of military significance and how much will there Israel be
left with when thousands of missile salvos go towards Isarel also destroying lots of infrastructure bombing Israel to stone age
Israel could hardly damage Lebanon aka Beirut with ALL THEIR MUNITIONS let alone huge and widely dispersed Iran (assuming Iran had not broken the Isrraeli codes etc ).
Really stupid assumptions.
Another thing… how is Israel able to handle multiple salvos of missiles and attack from three to four directions if Iraqi shiites are to join in the fray alongside Iranian soldiers already there?
Your tiny force and planes would not stand a chance .
This time Muslim soldiers do not fear the planes .. they know how to handle those high flying planes since low ones will surely get shot down.
Next How long do you think the entire conflict will last ? 30 days as the Israeli think? How about 10 years If Israel is still around.
Who says this time the conflict will end when Ban Ki Moon says so (urgently ordered by US) ?
That surely will be the end of Israel even with the help of USA as US would be hard pressed defendng their bases from ME all the way to Alfganistan… can US handle it? They would not last a year .. their 100 million people now on food aid will balloon to 200 million out of 300 million population.
Iranians are good chess player… they are only waiting for Nethanyahoo to make the biggest mistake of Israel’s history…because there may not be one left. Remember 10 years of missile productions now spread all around Israel is no joke.
Dream on … when this leaks then it means there is no plan … they only wait for US to do the job.. poor americans have to die for nothing. and only to see their food stamps dependents increase from 100 million to 200 millions.
Today’s wars is not about tech or planes .. it is about resolve to defend your own country. This Iranians and allies like Hez has plenty and endless.
Really .. how the cows can anyone tell the Iranians and allies to stop fighting when you hurt the biggerst Muslim nation in the region?
That beats me.
If the resistance to going into a suicidal war with Iran that is coming from many prominent Israelis – is anywhere near what this and other analyst’s have claimed it is, then if I were a mass murderous psychopath named Netanyahu or Barack, I think I’d be very, very worried about my own people deciding to assassinate me.
In fact, since it seems to be these two mentally insane nutcases who are the primary instigators of what will surely become World War 3, I think that every sane intelligence agency inside any of the Western nations who this pair of blood thirsty connivers are trying to drag into this war might consider it a very viable option to assign a Predator drone missile to these two crazies and with a couple of mouse clicks, blow them both to smithereens.
I mean, what’s worse? WW3 and the collapse of the entire world’s economy, and the likely deaths of millions of people – or simply giving these two mentally insane psychopaths a Predator missile enema?
You know — an Israeli drone could go way off course, a programming problem, something and just inadvertently strike Netanyahu and the other one, Barak while in conference, conniving the end of life as we know it. Surely, the Israeli military could mistakenly do something. Accidents do happen. Ask the innocent souls of all the collateral damage past in Gaza and Lebanon. Just ask them.
Bibi knows Israel will suffer heavy collateral damage.
Russia and China have repeatedly stated that any attack on Iran will be viewed as an attack on them.
and don’t forget that Obama has opened a backdoor channel with Iran.
That “backdoor” may just be the means for bringing down Israeli hubris once and for all. A massive defeat, and a peace brokered by Russia, China and the US would do wonderful things for Israel. It would deflate the settlement movement, the militarism, the right-wing politics, all in one sweep. It would defang AIPAC and the other pressure groups in the US. One can dream…
If by ‘massive defeat’, you are alluding to the creation of gigantic, self-illuminating, glass parking lot that was once a stolen piece of real estate occupied by the #1 most dangerous threat to the rest of human kind, then I am firmly with you in that orgasmic caliber prognostication.
I wouldn’t put it quite like that! I was thinking Tel Aviv rubble, “unacceptable” causalities and a suing for peace. Also, revolution in Israel from the democratic left, if there is any and a proper democracy. But, I do understand your feelings on this, just different sides of the same coin.
Show us a PDF of the original leak, or at least the original Hebrew text please.
What God do Jews believe in? What God has “promised” the land to Jews for which they are hell bent to killing hundreds of thousands of goys?
I am sure that G_d is not Christians’ or Muslims’ or Budhhists’.
This G*d is increasingly a devolution of His idea — becoming more localized, a regional warrior providing cover from one end of Israel to the other, but not beyond. Jewish tribalism has revived the older local deity. It is hard to find anything about Israel that isn’t regressive now.
I think all the bluster from Israel is meant to provide cover for Obama. I still think Obama will attack in the week before the Republican National Convention (August 20-26), but a new scenario has emerged. Netanyahu doesn’t trust Obama to attack if he is reelected and is less susceptible to AIPAC’s political pressure. So Obama must attack or the AIPAC will work against his reelection.
The main reason Obama would attack before October is to avoid giving credibility to accusations that he is “Wagging the Dog” and planned an “October Surprise” to boost he reelection campaign. But if Israel is willing to provide political cover for him, and this appears to be the case, Obama has a lot more leeway in launching the attack. If Israel provides cover Obama can say he had “no choice” but to assist the Israelis in their efforts, even though he wanted to give negotiations more time.
A recent article in the Times of Israel states the following:
“The US would have to support Israel and join in if Jerusalem were to take military action against Iran’s nuclear program, the Hebrew daily Maariv quoted diplomatic sources saying on Monday.
According to the report, Washington would also provide Israel with an air defense “umbrella” against the anticipated retaliation by Tehran and its proxies — notably Hezbollah — in the event of a strike. There is no indication from the report that the US would engage in offensive military action against Iran.” (Aaron Kalman, “US would have to actively support Israel if it attacks Iran,” The Times of Israel, August 13, 2012, http://www.timesofisrael.com/the-us-would-actively-support-israel-if-it-attacks-iran/)
This attack on Iran’s civilian nuclear facilities is a radiological attack on civilians. It will kill hundreds of thousands of civilians and thousands of US soldiers in the region (especially those located at our HQ in Bahrain). It will be nothing like the Israeli bombing of the smaller facilities in Iraq and Syria because Iran’s facilities are far more developed and on a much larger scale throughout the country. It will kill hundreds of thousands civilians as well as thousands of US troops in the region, especially those based at our HQ in Bahrain. The impact from attacking Iran’s nuclear reactor in Bushehr alone would be devastating. Bahrain is home to US Naval Forces Central Command and the US 5th Fleet. If Bahrain will be heavily affected, as Cordesman and Toukan state in their study, then our troops will be too:
“Most definitely Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE will be heavily affected by the radionuclides.”
“Any strike on the Bushehr Nuclear Reactor will cause the immediate death of thousands of people living in or adjacent to the site, and thousands of subsequent cancer deaths or even up to hundreds of thousands depending on the population density along the contamination plume.” (See: page 90, Anthony H. Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan, Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Development Facilities, March 14, 2009, http://www.csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090316_israelistrikeiran.pdf )
Iran will have to retaliate against this illegal, unprovoked massacre of civilians. If the US “would have to” help defend Israel from retaliation, then we know that this is just a pretext for the US entering the conflict and fighting Israel’s war.
In other words, Israel is completely contemptuous of American democracy and seeks to impose its own choice of leader on the American people. Cause for war, there, rather than friendship.
Since black and Hispanic Americans feel no guilt over what Germany did (and why should they?) the demographic in the USA is towards not caring a toss about Israel and being extremely vexed at the costs and mortal risks which Israel imposes on American soldiers and citizens. Israel has twenty years left, at most, on Capitol Hill. Much less if it gets Americans killed in the next few months.
Israel enjoys the support of the EU, solely because the EU is a definitively undemocratic entity controlled from Berlin. If the German grip slips, and it’s under an awful lot of strain, Europe will wash its hands of Israel.
Iran could be cannier about manipulating American opinion: Hillary Clinton’s main reason for hostility towards Iran at the moment is Iran’s support of Assad, not its opposition to Israel. If they change their stance, or Assad cops it (any time now…) then the only issue between Iran and the USA will be the nuclear programme, which American intelligence simply does not see in the same light that Israel does. Israel may try and use the CIA as a sort of Mossad branch office, but it’s the National Reconnaissance Office and the Defence Intelligence Agency which have the bulk of the resources and the greatest input into the Pentagon and the White House.
The CIA is the State Department’s intelligence service and even the State Department is not entirely on Israel’s side. The CIA itself is not entirely on Israel’s side, not least because Israel has openly threatened CIA officers in the recent past. Israel is going to be friendless because it is completely heedless of any “friend’s” vital interests, let alone opinions and strategy.
One day, the DHS will be searching for AIPAC members the way it currently searches for Al Qaeda operatives, and it will have broad public support for doing so. Israel will have forged a new Gestapo for its own back.
It is NEVER unthinkable that America will turn on any of its allies: America’s immediate response to fighting alongside Britain and France in the Great War was to draw up elaborate war plans for destroying Britain and France. War Plan Red was only archived after the battle of El Alamain. Pearl Harbour did not do it.
On this basis, someone at the Indianapolis Naval Academy is sure to have drafted a plan for wiping out Israel, just as they almost certainly have revived “Red” plans for attacking Britain. As long as the underlying doctrine is for America to be and remain the supreme global power, it will always plot against its friends as well as its enemies, just in case it’s ever expedient for friends to become enemies. Israel is currently pushing every single one of the buttons which might put such a switch into effect.
Great Blog!
The threat that an Israeli attack on Iran could pose to American strategic industry namely Intel Corporation’s sprawling semi-conductor manufacturing fabrication (Intel Fab-28) facility – has not been addressed in any serious way.
See here:
http://www.intel.com/pressroom/archive/releases/2005/20051201corp.htm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-18/intel-to-invest-2-7-billion-in-israel-operations-over-two-years.html
http://www.bit-tech.net/news/hardware/2011/01/18/intel-investment-israeli-fab/1
All American semi-conductors manufacturing based in Israel could be targeted by Iranian ‘Shahab’ class missiles.
http://www.missilethreat.com/thethreat/pageID.247/default.asp
Not only do FABs represent sprawling targets for Iranian planners but semi-conductor fabrication requires the use of industrial gasses and compounds that are so lethal – some are classified as ‘chemical agents.’
See here:
http://www.airproducts.com/products/Gases/Specialty-Gases/Silicon-Semiconductors.aspx
A hit by an Iranian weapon (even just damage) to an American strategic semi-conductor facility would be a catastrophe if industrial chemical gases are released into the air.
Some of these compounds are heaver than air and settle towards the ground were people are.
We do not want our men and women in uniform (and their families) to be throttled into an unnecessary confrontation with Iran due to unreasoned neoconservative domestic political calculus either at home – or by a ‘friendly’ foreign government.
Americans have already (literally) paid a heavy heavy price via the 1970s OPEC oil embargo triggered by our support for regional actors in the Middle East war of October 1973.
Thanks!
It’s the hydrogen fluoride that’s most pernicious, because it can get through most gas mask filters and causes heart failure. You really don’t want plants containing that to be bombed, and you don’t want strategic American-owned industries anywhere a third party (either Iran or Israel) can hold them hostage.
Has anyone ever stopped to examine the justiification for this conflict? It’s pretty much born out of a single remark made by Ahmadinejad several years ago which was twisted and taken out of context to mean something it didn’t. Namely the “wiping Israel off the map”. When in reality, his remark was not about destroying Israel (the term “wiping off the map” is a saying used in the west, NOT at all in farsi (the iranian language). Instead it was a throw away comment about the fact that maps shouldn’t show Israel because in his eyes, it was an illegal state which should not be recognised. I don’t necessarily agree with the sentiment, but at the same time it’s important to realise that within minutes of him saying it, it was twisted into something malevolent by western propaganda which set the wheels in motion for where we are today. It was manipulated so well that it reminds me of the saying – a lie is half way round the world while the truth is still putting its shoes on.
To back up the point I’d like to suggest everyone think about the idea of Iran using nuclear weapons to destroy Israel. A laughable notion for the following reasons.
1) The Iranian leadership are not idiots. Iran knows (as does everyone) that Israel is a nuclear power, and that any nuclear attack would guarantee the same response from Israel (and probably the US) resulting in the total destruction of Iran.
2) Secondly, quite simply…what would be the point? Firstly, Iran would be destroying the 2nd holiest site in Islam, namely Jerusalem, which is pretty much what this whole conflict has been about for the last 63+ years – the very sacred site it now wants to destroy? Yeh that makes sense!
3) Also, it would result in the deaths of millions of palestinians, including their allies in Hamas. Unless you are naive enough to think a nuclear attack can destroy certain parts of Israel without significant and considerable collateral damage throughout Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan and Lebanon. I’m sure Hamas and Hezbollah wouldn’t feel too excited by that. And once again, isn’t the reason Iran is at loggerheads with Israel bcos of its support for the palestinians – the very people we now think it’s happy to destroy?
In case anyone thinks it, I’m not saying Iran is the god guy in all this. I’m sure they would prefer Israel not to exist, but they’re not some madcap, foaming at the mouth, rabid, psychopathic, clueless barbarians that the west like to make out – hell bent on destroying Israel. In their recent history (over the last 30+ years) they’ve not actively sought military conflict (unlike certain other countries in this debate).
Finally, I want to add that this isn’t (and should not be) seen as a conflict between jews and muslims and/or christians. No, this SHOULD be a conflict between moderate jews, muslims, christians against the extremist christians, muslims, jews. I hope and pray there are enough moderates in all these major faiths who are prepared to join forces to build a better future rather than a destructive one. Thank you for reading.
I’m approving this comment because you are a new commenter here and because I think most of your comment is worth viewing. But I do not want to reopen the issue of what Ahmadinejad did or didn’t say about Israel. So let’s steer clear of that one since it’s been discussed & debated here ad infinitum and ad nauseam.
I happen to agree with you, Richard, the use of the quote is starting to get boring. On the other hand I found Ahmadinejad’s UN speech rather shocking. But the rest of the comment is absolutely good.
Interesting in our context, the following statement by the Israeli decision maker. Maybe indeed Ehud Barak?
Ironically enough, we are lectured that Iran waited 4.000 years to create an atomic bomb. Really?
But of course Avi Shlaim can’t be correct that the Iron Wall wasn’t meant to last forever, either. Or was it indeed meant to expire one day? And if there is an international consensus concerning Iran, whatever international means in this context, there is also one concerning “Judea and Samaria”. At what point can the Iron Wall strategy be given up?
What I am really wondering about how much support there is in Israel for no war against Iran, in other words Ari Shavit’s position the US should do it versus the “knowledgeable decision maker’s” we have to do it on our own. Interesting how carefully he avoids even trusting Romney. Admittedly I haven’t paid much attention lately.
Are you sure this is not simply propaganda to keep the issue alive and the other one off the table?
by the way, Richard, I like your voice. I think I have never heard it before.
Hi Richard,
I’m afraid as a new visitor to your website I wasn’t aware of previous discussions on the speech. It’s not important as I only included it as a premise to my subsequent point. People need to stop taking things as red and think for themselves with regards to the practical and political likelihood of Iran actually launching a nuclear attack. It reminds me of a quote during the cold war when people were afraid of the Russians starting a nuclear war, and someone said (and I’m paraphrasing) “the Russians love their children too”.
Re: the Iran nuclear situation, there are comparisons made deliberately with Nazi Germany to provoke fear. I think this is the wrong comparison. It may already have been mentioned, but I think this is more about regional power. A nuclear Iran becomes a stronger force in the region – both geo-politically and militarily. It would also leaves others with fewer options to counter it’s power in the region. In that sense, I see Iran more akin to a comparison with USSR during the cold war (with Israel being the US equivalent).
I believe this balance of power was addressed in http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/06/26/waltz_weighs_in_on_iran. I am surprised that this idea hasn’t more “legs” in the discussion as it seems sensible to me.
Waltz’s brief article on Iran echoes this logic. He argues that nuclear asymmetry is inherently destabilizing, because it makes the unarmed side (Iran) feel weak and vulnerable and thus encourages it to look for ways to make itself more secure. At the same time, rival states who already have the bomb (in this case, Israel and the United States), will spend a lot of time contemplating preventive war (as indeed we have). If Iran gets the bomb, however, then the logic of deterrence will kick in and relations between these countries will be more stable, not less.
Carefull now, to even suggest such a thing might lead to you being accused of supporting fascist tyrants to develop WMDs in order to destroy Israel, it’s arab neighbours and pretty much the entire world!!
For what it’s worth, on the whole I subscribe to Waltz’s argument. However, we mustn’t forget a similar situation between India and Pakistan. Both nuclear powers and both in dispute over the territory of Kashmir. Although there is a stand-off between both countries which fluxes between periods of stability and political hostility, the balance of nuclear weapons on both sides has been pivotal in preventing all out war for the last 20 years. But here’s the difference – with the Kashmir dispute, there is no real interest in what the Kashmir people want. The best thing for Kashmir would be independence from both, but neither India or Pakistan even want to mention that, choosing instead to justify why Kashmir should belong to them, resulting in a clandestine war involving acts of terrorism and state sponsored brutality against the civilians. For this reason. I’m not sure that any period of stability between Israel and Iran, which while good for the region generally, will necessary benefit the palestinians.
Palestinians have been marginalized by Arabs across the ME, as much so as by Israel. I don’t nexpect anything to “necessarily” help them out. But, discouraging Israel from nuclear extortion, and threats of aggression, is a good thing overall. Just call me an anti-semite. Ha Ha.
You had better apply for asylum in Ecuador! Great post!
(who, oh who, might they be?)
Jeffrey Goldberg in the US? I’ll leave out my special Israeli Gogs.
After reading about the alternative versions seen of this document (such as the Fresh posting) I wanted to suggest a possibility. These documents are fairly plausible but at the same time aren’t actually revealing detail to an extent that would endanger any real plans greatly. Instead it may be that what we see is multiple, deliberately varying versions of this document being leaked out to different individuals. There is a tradecraft technique in which this is done to identify a leak – the possible leakers believe they have a document which has gone to a number of people but in fact each is somewhat different. The version that leaks therefore tells the originator who leaked it. The document itself needs to be plausible and may also contain misinformation… hard to say anything about the veracity if indeed it is being used for this purpose. So there is a possibility that your source is being deliberately exposed. And, perhaps another source for the Fresh posting. Or something along these lines.
If that were so Aaron, then the fact that many versions are out there suggests that more than one person is leaking it – which in turn suggests that the Israelis have a lot of disgruntled people on the inside! (By no means impossible.)
However, the tone of the document is not the dry tone of a governmental or military document, but more like the lucid tone of a press release, or even a novelists description. It is not broken down into numbered points or a timeline, but flows like something Tom Clancy might have written. That is not to say that it is not “authentic” – but it raises the question of who is the intended audience.
If it was intra-military, or between military and politicians, it would refer to the “XYZ system” not”… electronic warfare gear previously unknown to the wider public, not even revealed to our U.S. ally” This whole phraseology is like waving a bright red flag. It is like a person telling his friend at the top of his voice “YOU MUST KEEP THIS SECRET AND NOT TELL ANYONE.” In short, the document is real but is itself part of the psychological war. It is not something that the Israelis wanted to keep secret, but something that they wanted to put out there.
The question is whether their plan is to try and provoke an Iranian strike to create an excuse, to intimidate the Iranians into some sort of backing down (unlikely to occur) or to pressure the US into attacking Iran. I do not know what they hope to achieve, but I know a set-up when I see one.
Not sure what you mean by “many versions.” As far as I know, there is only one version that was disseminated to me and a Fresh member. The document may’ve been shared in confidence with ministers, MKs, & a few selected journos. But none of them leaked it.
I think the document is a cross between a military document and a press release. Clearly there was some military input into it. But it seems more likely that a PR flack either in the PM’s, defense minister’s, or NSA office put the final version together.
I’d also emphasize that military-intel experts were asked to vet the document & they say it looks credible in terms of the weapons systems mentioned & what they knew of what Israel was developing.
I was paraphrasing Aaron’s “multiple, deliberately varying versions of this document.” The style is more press than military, although there is clearly military information. But it’s written in the tone of some one who wants the info to be “out there.” It’s like the writer wants to make sure that the layman understands it. I’m sure the details are credible and realistic, but I can’t escape the thought that the Israelis WANT this document to be in the public domain – like they’re playing some dangerous kind of game.
Is it true that Obama has asked Netenyahu to wait until after the US elections to attack Iran ?
IF it’s true that Obama has close ties to the CIA, that would explain his even handedness in the Middle East.
” We were there to document the event” *
– The five Dancing Israeli’s arrested on 911.
* Interviewed on Israeli television
” We were there to document the event”
That one again?
What’s the connection?
[And now you’re banned]
I like how nobody is discussing the nuclear disaster that would occur if the Israelis successfully bombed the enrichment facilities. This should be seen as a form of nuclear war.
I think this is what the planning is trying to avoid, Ed. It appears that the common belief is that Iran will have the capability to construct a nuclear bomb by the end of this year. So, with the US not wanting to get involved in anything before the Presidential election in November (and sensibly so), it appears Israel is looking at the possibility of ‘going it alone’.
As the first part of my comment indicated and is indicated in Richard’s analysis, the Israelis do not appear to have fully thought through the consequences of any attack but, I suppose, it is a matter at looking at the lesser of two evils. Do you take a risk on destroying the production facilities for a nuclear weapon or do you wait for the nuclear weapon to be created and then deal with all the implications and possibilities of that situation? Sort of between a rock and a hard place.
Sort of between a rock and a hard place.
THe greatest danger for Israel if Iran did have a working nuclear deterrent as ISrael does, is that ISrael will no longer have a free hand to unilaterally attack its neighbours as it did in Lebanon in 2006. Israel attacked Lebanon’s civilian infrastructure, including the international airport, roads, bridges etc without any counterattack not he part of the Lebanese army. Similarly Israel’s impunity when it comes to punishing the entire Palestinian population for resistance and terrorism conducted by various guerrilla groups would be at an end.
There is little chance of nuclear exchange between the two countries as (a) It’s suicide for everyone involved (b) these are two highly religious countries that prohibit such mass destruction on an ecumenical basis and (c) the high level operators in both countries are not as stupid or as reckless as the general public imagines.
Far more belligerent nuclear enemies such as Pakistan and India have thus far refrained from nuclear exchange for similar reasons, as indeed did the USA and the Soviet Union. It’s important to understand that in military circles nuclear armaments are not considered weapons but strategic assets. You can’t actually USE them – that negates their value. That negates everything.
As far as Israel’s dilemma is concerned, even if they carry out a successful attack on Iran and cripple their nascent nuclear industry, what’s to stop them redoubling their efforts in greater secrecy and with more resources? Its a lose – lose scenario.
Reply to Wisdo:
If Israel nukes the centrifuge facilities and nuclear personnel sites then this “lose-lose” becomes a win. Nuking major city centers too would avoid the problems with leaving the Persians standing. This would provide a solution good for at least 10 years and could be extended indefinitely by the occasional additional nuke.
@ graphite: Either this is satire or you’re out of your friggin’ gourd. I don’t know which.
I think your analysis of the ‘leaked memo’ is fairly accurate, to me it is the kind of ‘dream’ scenario a boy would put together for an imaginary war he was going to fight. It is too naive with regard to the effectiveness of the strike and the lack of accounting for responsive action by Iran.
I must disagree with your premise that Israel is dealing with an Iran which has moved on from the Saddam culture. During the Arab spring we have seen leaders – Gaddafi for one – who have adopted the strong invincible stance only to crumble when their stance was really put to the test. I wonder if their religious psychology provides a flaw in their strategy.
Having lived in the Middle East, I was surprised, in Kuwait, how reckless some of the young men were in their driving. I was informed that the young people’s view was that God (Allah) would decide when it was time for them to die and so they lived their life as they wished. This ‘not quite being in control of our destiny’ could be a flaw in such cultures’ strategy when it comes to dealing with an offensive on their country.
As they say in Iran “Israel gooh mikhore” to attack Iran.
If Isreal is trying to get the world used to war so they will not be shocked, “he” is wrong. The world will be in shock and owe when Iranians will respond and there will be a 4th world war because we are already in 3rd world war. So, i would advise them to think twice. Can you imagine another country threatening to stage a war against another country constantly? Why is Isreal so agressive? I am amazed about the audacity of these war mongers. We people of the earth need jobs, true peace, and food not wars, violence, prejudice and destruction.
Tell Israel stop war mongering and stop oppressing Palestinians.
What I don’t understand is, if the Israelis really want to deploy this attack, why would they leak precise information about how they are going to execute it? I can only think of it as a way to decoy Iran in case they do attack.
It’s not exactly “precise.” It provides an outline, but not a precise blueprint.
Firstly, well done for publishing. Secondly, well done for publishing manner which respects your source and safe guards them. The world is recovering from Bush’s idiotic war, if half of the rational in this blog is true then it seems Bibi has taken leave of his senses. This is my take (for the record, I’m a former middle ranking para officer and I’m now a oil trader at Investment Banker):
1. Israel has the capacity to severely damage the nuclear infrastructure of Iran, of that there is no question, will the damage be worth the fallout (political and military)?
A. According to Kissinger, any nation that starts a war, typically forgoes American support. Specially in a election year. The calculus in the mind of the Israeli’s Gov, is if they start shooting first and Obama refuses to join the war, can they finish the job militarily? Answer is unlikely. Even more worryingly for Bibi and cohorts, if Obama is re-elected (which is highly probable), Israeli Gov would fear a Suez esq American response.
B. Economically, the first shot will sent oil to $150 dollars per barrel. If Iran expands the war to include Saudi and GCC countries, that will send oil to $300 p/b. Iran’s economy is already crippled, this additional shock will contract their economy by 5%. Israel on the other hand my fail to grow, it may even contract if their reactors suffer direct hits. Israeli GDP is 242.93 billion, thus a 30 day war would cost approximately 10-20 billion, any more than that and you are talking about a really punishing economic output.
C. Military response from Iran range from Missile strikes to Hamas (highly unlikely). The most interesting situation would be regarding Syria who has a defence pact with Iran. They could use this situation to deflect the domestic troubles to Israel’s door. It would only cost them some missiles and they would simply have to pray from some kind of Israeli response (probably via Golan). Hamas is now more aligned with Egypt, thus would sit this out. Hezbollah, would probably heed the call and launch strikes on Haifa and if capable Tela viv.
Ultimately, Bibi’s track record shows, he’s never started a war, he’s merely supported other peoples wars. He’s politically aggressive, but militarily cautious (And rightly so!). I’ll wager this is all a poly to corner Obama/Romney into a Strike post election. Why, because Israel cannot be certain of the successful outcome of a independent strike, thus it will require US might. It will still carry the same penalties, but the truth is, it will ensure the outcome of their goal.
Once again, great article and excellent food for thought.
PS Cost of independent action is easy to gauge for Israel, reason for not committing it to paper is fear it would be leaked. Sacrificing so much in material and treasure on a folly which may not achieve it ultimate goal and committing the theory to paper would sway public opinion so far to against, it would effectively silence their bellicose war drum! Israeli’s are not stupid.
Although this plan looks pretty complex, I am sure it makes minor to no harm to Iranian warfare. Dont forget that Iran has a 8 years complete was experience and knows how to keep its defense layers protected. e.g. defense forces are completely independent from public electrical and telephone system. Internet connection is totally banned in military bases and They are far from any kind of silo or nuclear facility, and so much distributed that they need more than “tens”, lets say “tens of thousands” of highly penetrating missiles to make sure they have made an effective damage.
from what i can tell your source “former minister in a former government” would have to be mofaz…
Reasonable guess. But I wouldn’t tell you whether it was him or anyone else.