Gog and Magog: No to Iran War!
UPDATE: Here’s the link for my portion of the BBC Newshour segment in which I was interviewed about the Israeli government document. The entire program, which includes a number of other segments discussing and analyzing the document is here.
Israelis are posting a claim that the document I published is identical to a post published by Fresh, an Israeli gossip/news portal, a few days ago. It is not. My original IDF source leaked the post to a Fresh member and me at the same time. That person published a small portion of the original memo at Fresh, embellishing it with much material that was meant to disguise what it was and where it came from. I can’t ascribe motives to whoever published it at Fresh, but much of it fantasy and isn’t in the original document. This story is now a screaming headline in the Israeli media and at no point has anyone in the Israeli government maintained that this document is anything other than what I claim it to be. They know it is authentic. Anyone else who claims otherwise does so at the risk of their own credibility (if they have any).
* *
In the past few days, I received an Israeli briefing document outlining Israel’s war plans against Iran. The document was passed to me by a high-level Israeli source who received it from an IDF officer. My source, in fact, wrote to me that normally he would not leak this sort of document, but:
“These are not normal times. I’m afraid Bibi and Barak are dead serious.”
The reason they leaked it is to expose the arguments and plans advanced by the Bibi-Barak two-headed warrior. Neither the IDF leaker, my source, nor virtually any senior military or intelligence officer wants this war. While whoever wrote this briefing paper had use of IDF and intelligence data, I don’t believe the IDF wrote it. It feels more likely it came from the shop of national security advisor Yaakov Amidror, a former general, settler true-believer and Bibi confidant. It could also have been produced by Defense Minister Barak, another pro-war booster.
I’ve translated the document from Hebrew with the help of Dena Shunra.
Before laying out the document, I wanted to place it in context. If you’ve been reading this blog you’ll know that after Bibi’s IDF service he became the marketing director for a furniture company. Recent revelations have suggested that he may have also served in some capacity either formally or informally in the Mossad during that period.
This document is a more sophisticated version of selling bedroom sets and three-piece sectionals. The only difference is that this marketing effort could lead to the death of thousands.
This is Bibi’s sales pitch for war. Its purpose is to be used in meetings with members of the Shminiya , the eight-member security cabinet which currently finds a 4-3 majority opposed to an Iran strike. Bibi uses this sales pitch to persuade the recalcitrant ministers of the cool, clean, refreshing taste of war. My source informs me that it has also been shared in confidence with selected journalists who are in the trusted inner media circle (who, oh who, might they be?).
This is Shock and Awe, Israel-style. It is Bibi’s effort to persuade high-level Israeli officials that Israel can prosecute a pure technology war that involves relatively few human beings (Israeli, that is) who may be put in harm’s way, and will certainly cost few lives of IDF personnel.
Bibi’s sleight of hand here involves no mention whatsoever of an Iranian counter-attack against Israel. The presumption must be that the bells and whistles of all those marvelous new weapons systems will decapitate Iran’s war-making ability and render it paralyzed. The likelihood of this actually happening is nearly nil.
There will be those who will dispute the authenticity of this document. I’m convinced it is what my source claims, based on his prior track record and the level of specificity offered in the document. It references cities by name and the facilities they contain. It names new weapons systems including one Israel supposedly hasn’t even shared with the U.S.
No, it’s real. Or I should say that while it’s real, it is the product of the Israeli dream factory which manufactures threats and then creates fabulist military strategies to address them. The dream factory always breaks the hearts of the families of those whose members fall victim to it. It never produces the result it promises, nor will it do so here.
Remember Bush-era Shock and Awe? Remember those promises of precision-guided cruise missiles raining death upon Saddam Hussein’s Iraq? Remember Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” ceremony on the deck of the USS Lincoln, only six or seven years premature? Remember the promises of decisive victory? Remember 4,000 U.S. dead, not to mention hundreds of thousands of Iraqis?
Now, think of what an Israeli war against Iran could turn into. Think about how this sanitized version of 21st century war could turn into a protracted, bloody conflict closer to the nine-year Iran-Iraq War:
The Israeli attack will open with a coordinated strike, including an unprecedented cyber-attack which will totally paralyze the Iranian regime and its ability to know what is happening within its borders. The internet, telephones, radio and television, communications satellites, and fiber optic cables leading to and from critical installations—including underground missile bases at Khorramabad and Isfahan—will be taken out of action. The electrical grid throughout Iran will be paralyzed and transformer stations will absorb severe damage from carbon fiber munitions which are finer than a human hair, causing electrical short circuits whose repair requires their complete removal. This would be a Sisyphean task in light of cluster munitions which would be dropped, some time-delayed and some remote-activated through the use of a satellite signal.
A barrage of tens of ballistic missiles would be launched from Israel toward Iran. 300km ballistic missiles would be launched from Israeli submarines in the vicinity of the Persian Gulf. The missiles would not be armed with unconventional warheads [WMD], but rather with high-explosive ordnance equipped with reinforced tips designed specially to penetrate hardened targets.
The missiles will strike their targets—some exploding above ground like those striking the nuclear reactor at Arak–which is intended to produce plutonium and tritium—and the nearby heavy water production facility; the nuclear fuel production facilities at Isfahan and facilities for enriching uranium-hexaflouride. Others would explode under-ground, as at the Fordo facility.
A barrage of hundreds of cruise missiles will pound command and control systems, research and development facilities, and the residences of senior personnel in the nuclear and missile development apparatus. Intelligence gathered over years will be utilized to completely decapitate Iran’s professional and command ranks in these fields.
After the first wave of attacks, which will be timed to the second, the “Blue and White” radar satellite, whose systems enable us to perform an evaluation of the level of damage done to the various targets, will pass over Iran. Only after rapidly decrypting the satellite’s data, will the information be transferred directly to war planes making their way covertly toward Iran. These IAF planes will be armed with electronic warfare gear previously unknown to the wider public, not even revealed to our U.S. ally. This equipment will render Israeli aircraft invisible. Those Israeli war planes which participate in the attack will damage a short-list of targets which require further assault.
Among the targets approved for attack—Shihab 3 and Sejil ballistic missile silos, storage tanks for chemical components of rocket fuel, industrial facilities for producing missile control systems, centrifuge production plants and more.
While the level of specificity in this document is, in some senses, impressive, in one critical aspect it is deficient. Muhammad Sahimi points out that the current chief of the Revolutionary Guards, when he assumed his position in 2007, deliberately addressed the issue of over-centralization of command and control by dividing the nation into 31 districts. Each of these has its own independent command and control facilities and mechanisms. So Israel wouldn’t be able to knock out a single facility and paralyze the IRG. They’d need to knock out 31 separate sets of facilities–a much harder task.
There seems also to be an assumption that Iran’s leaders and nuclear specialists live nice domestic lives and that Israeli intelligence knows where they all live and can easily target them. In truth, the most senior Iranian military and scientific figures live clandestine lives and it’s hard for me to believe even the Mossad knows where they are and how to target them.
So it appears that Netanyahu believes he’s fighting Saddam circa 2003. During that war, the Iraqi Revolutionary Guards were centralized and knocking out one C&C center could decapitate the entire military apparatus. But Iran has learned from Saddam’s mistakes. It isn’t fighting the last war as Bibi appears to be. It is preparing for the next one. While Israel may have new tricks up its sleeve that no one in the world has yet seen, if it doesn’t understand the nature of the enemy, its defenses, its structure, etc. then it can’t win.
News Alert: I’ve just been interviewed by BBC Newshour’s Julian Marshall and anticipate they will air a segment about this story at 1:30PM UK time and at 9:30AM east coast time (6:30AM west coast). I’m not sure which time it will air in Israel, but I believe it would be 3:30PM. If your NPR station airs BBC World Service you should hear it. I don’t know if it will be repeated any other times during the day. You can tell me that if you hear it.
This is certainly well beyond “a few bombs on the nuke sites.”
If Iran’s leaders REALLY belive that an Israeli attack is inevitable, why should they not strike first?
because we iranians are not the aggressors and the terrorists your country makes us to be.
Good luck with your isis.
Barak has never started a war, and bibi too. They are both scared to death. They will not start a war with Iran. No way.
Fascinating!
Do you plan to publish the original document, in Hebrew, or just this translated summary?
Glad to see they’re completely delusional. The crazier they are, the more dissenting voices we’ll see coming out of the woodworks. But, the ‘invisible planes’ take the cake though… Maybe they can hide Tel-Aviv and Haifa too when the missiles start raining down.
Positively pornographic they way these people think about war-mongering…not a mangled child to be seen in their glistening penile projections…and they are increasingly in control of our media with their ‘normalisation’ program. Orwell would have to whistle in horrified admiration.
Thank you, Tikun, for this interesting post. Not that I’m an expert, but it seems like this is an intentional leakage meant to give Bibi the tough militant image (like the rumor that he was involved with Mossad, which I’m sure his campaigners thrive on..). A friend convinced me with a view that instead of an attack on Iran, Israel will attack a much more justifiable target like Syria. They will find or create some kind of reason to attack Assad the Baby Killer before elections. We’ll probably see another Sabra and Shatila Massacre long before a full-fledged missile take-down with Iran.
In this light, I believe the anti-war rhetoric shouldn’t be around a question of feasibility – i.e. can an attack on Iran succeed – but around questions of humanity, imperialism, power-crazed capitalists etc. Anyway, keep up your anti-war-militarism-capitalism shtuff.
“justifiable” Did you really mean that? How in all the universe is Syria any more justifiable than Iran?
FYI, I heard the BBC story around 9am EST on Vermont Public Radio.
Publishing this sort of “war plan” is quite a controversial decision by you and I’d like to hear what you were thinking before you decided to publish it. Assuming it’s true, publishing this sort of document is a huge hit to Israel’s security. If for example Iran starts a war with Israel and Israel fights back (which I assume even you would support), you just significantly hurt its ability to fight back and protect itself.
Nonsense.
If the Israeli government bombs Iran, then Iran will attack US ships in the “bath-tub” (as a US naval officer, who served in Gulf War I, calls it). That worries me. Certainly, it annoys the US government, which “leaked” a Pentagon war-gaming exercise in which Israel launches just this sort of attack, the Iranians sink two US ships, and the US invades Iran. Notice that Iran is about three times the size of Iraq, and imagine what happens next.
Obvious message from the Pentagon leak: don’t start a war for us.
What piffle. This is not an actual war plan but only a drawing-board pipe dream. Its value lies in showing the world the bellicose and delusional mindset of Israel’s president. It’s damn terrifying.
The President is Peres he is Nobel Peace prize winner….This plan was published in the Vanity Fair magazine about a year ago. It was written by a former director of the IDF named Halutz for Olmert during the Bush administration and was discarded as too radical.
Very interesting development. I have been following this debacle since 1948 aged 14. Hellfire and damnation is the only outcome. I wish the civilians on both the very best of luck.
Respectfully –
Why has no other journalist gotten ‘hold of this information?
What steps will you take to allow verification of the original document?
Other than the BBC, why has no other news outlet run with this?
Again, my questions are respectfully asked. If true, this is very distressing, as it is a form of coercion on a national level – FORCING the US to follow a unilateral action by Israel that will lead us into war, one which will make the conflicts of the past ten years look like only prologue.
There is one issues about Israel’s foreseen attack I am still struggling with:
Why do I get the feeling our leaders believe that after the attack there will be no retaliation? Do they honestly believe that a full war will not brake? That after the plans fly over iran, the Iranian government will see its wrong ways and ask for forgiveness?
loooool!
here’s the “original top secret” document:
http://www.fresh.co.il/vBulletin/showthread.php?t=567269#post4282787
for those who cannot read hebrew, this is an imaginary post in an israeli forum posted in 2002(!!) describing word by word what richard wrote. once again, richard “high level” source made him look like a fool. lol!
That’s actually a false statement which indicates how sloppy you are. Portions of the document I published are contained in the Fresh posting of 2002. Of course the IDF uses portions of its briefing memos for presentations and updates them as they develop new weapons systems. That’s what all militaries do. In 2002, they produced a document which was leaked to Fresh. The document I published contains other information that is not in the Fresh posting and the Fresh posting contains highly fictionalized scenarios which are not in the document I posted.
No, it is not 2002 but 11 August this year and seems (Google translate) very close to what you have, with some additional material (how Hezbollah will respond, peace will guide the planets, and love will steer the stars, etc.–indeed highly fictionalized!). But it is more as if both are versions of the same text edited by different people. Maariv now has a version of the story but it is entirely from you: http://www.nrg.co.il/online/1/ART2/395/489.html?hp=1&cat=875&loc=1
Erp…
If the Israeli military censorship allowed this to pass, it probably isn’t for real.
Remember what they did in Dec. 2008 to an issue of Haaretz which cited *real* operatonal plans for “Cast Lead” and had already gone to the printing press.
But who knows… let’s look what happens to the Maariv article over the next few hours.
As I wrote in my update, what’s in Fresh and what’s in my document contains some overlap, but much in my document is not in anything published by anyone at Fresh.
omg, how is it that you dont understand someone is playing you?
anyhow, i like it. it just perpetuate your poor credibility.
sorry, posted a few days ago.
Man proposes God disposes, all those people and states which rose to power and persisted for sometime finaly perished because nothing is imortal less Allah himself. There is always a limit to kill innocent humans. This time i guess Israil is faced with a tought enemy, may be surprised and might be eliminated by herself being smaller in size. I guess israil must think twice before attacking Iran. Moreover it will have repercussion for the complete world which is already seeing diwindling economies, shortage of food, failure of uno and humanterian help where a crises occures in the world. We cannot be insensitive to the sufferings of humanity for a long time there got to be some world org to help and solve interstate problems and promote peace. Present mood of states will ensure mutual destruction.
“Bibi’s sleight of hand here involves no mention whatsoever of an Iranian counter-attack against Israel. The presumption must be that the bells and whistles of all those marvelous new weapons systems will decapitate Iran’s war-making ability and render it paralyzed. The likelihood of this actually happening is nearly nil.”
– Unless they expect or know that the US will stand with them.
To be perfectly honest I would expect a much higer level of precision and form from an official document like this one would supposed to be.
Informations like the one in the document are easily available on the net and there is nothing there hinting we are witnessing something real.
If this is their war planning, they’ve got problems: it offers no speculation on what resistance they might meet, what resources are available to their opponents. All it is is a list of self-glorifying threats, much like the ones heard in kindergarten and the very first years of school.
It’s basically a movie script. Or as they say in Israel – הם חיים בסרט – they’re living in their own personal movie.
Why would they want to posture in this way? Are they trying to draw an attack to themselves, and then cry for mercy/assistance? Preschool tactics there, sibling rivalry playing for a large parent. I hope that’s not the plan.
It’s rather safe to bet that Barak is significantly less intelligent than he wants us to believe.
It’s even safer to bet he’s not nearly as pathetically stupid as to author, let alone implement or even seriously consider such wishfully-thought, childish wet dream.
This whole war-on-Iran-one-of-these-mornings saga is cheap diversion tactic for both internal and external purposes: Diversion of Israeli public opinion from the acutely worsening economy coupled with the fast migration of all wealth into the hands of very few oligarchs.
Diversion of international public opinion from mass illegal settlements and ever more blatant apartheid in the occupied territories.
An extra bonus is the hoped for damage to Obama’s re-election campaign which, in turn, wouldn’t go unrewarded by the Old Men of Vegas.
That’s such an appropriate locus of power for a situation where there’s gambling going on – even if the stakes are a nuclear war.
I think it’s a terrible indictment of civilisation that we have been led into a position whereby Israel can basically be so open and bold about attacking another country —based on highly spurious and dubious claims — and the media, except for Mr Silverstein, etc. (who do a good job of balanced writing) go along with it, with little to no criticism.
Whew, run-on sentence there 🙂
I’m just amazed, and shocked at the sheer brazen attitude by Israel on Iran. What on earth are people doing about the overt threat of attacking another nation based on rhetoric created purely by the US and Israel, as well as the UK? Nothing. Nowhere, not once has Iran ever stated they are building any nuclear weapons; they have hardly even finished building their nuclear power stations, which are for purely domestic energy purposes. Yet, we are treated to this daily, one-sided view of Iran as some threat to the world, rhetoric which comes purely from the US and Israel. I don’t see the UN condemning Israel for such threats, and now with actual plans laid bare for all to see, the UN are silent. Oh, I’m sure they will come out with messages of restraint, etc. whilst they secretly build up plans for a “post-war Iran.” Sound familiar? Same story with Syria, Libya, etc. I wouldn’t blame Iran if they launched a strike first, since it’s their national security at risk here; their nation, and using Obama’s bullshit words on protecting sovereign rights, then Iran has every right to do what they can to stop the very real threat, the very out-spoken threat from Israel. of course, as an ex-israeli, I hope they don’t and I really hope Israel doesn’t stirring up more trouble which is entirely self-created now. Then there’s the MSM. They just spit out words which clearly aim to steer the reader into thinking Iran is a threat, and they are about to launch nuclear strikes all over the universe. There’s no examination of Israel/US accusations. Nothing. They just trumpet a few lines about Iran wanting a peaceful nuclear programme, et.c and all in a byline. We should be defending Iran over their right to do… Read more »
‘The madman strategy can be related to Niccolò Machiavelli, who, in his Discourses on Livy (book 3, chapter 2) discusses how it is at times “a very wise thing to simulate madness”.’
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory
Now, what were we talking about before? Oh yes, the occupation.
Mr. Silverstein,
Allow me first to state, lest there be any doubt, that I categorically reject and abhor your screeds, since you have long since gravitated(despite whatever claims you may have) from the Zionist camp.
I would like, if I may, second Vova’s comment. The post, on “Fresh”, is from August the 11th, 2012(!). A few days ago; Nothing about 2002, and nothing about the “IDF reusing old material”(blah-blah-blah)…
It is therefore, either a deliberate act of plagiarism, or wilful duping; Certainly devoid, however, of anything “Investigative” or “truthful”.(Not to mention that it matches your post, Verbatim)
Please, in the interest of protecting your own reputation(which, I must shamefully admit, I sincerely hope that by your own hands you will tarnish), retract your ridiculous claims.
(Also, you would no doubt be happy to know, that a true journalist, Ben Caspit, in Ma’ariv, recently reported that there hasn’t been an extended-cabinet meeting for past few months re Iran, nor any new information supplied to it, ruling out any sudden “revelation”, by your so-called “source”).
I apologize, for my rudeness; but in your slander of Israel, apparently, lying is never a step too far.
http://www.nrg.co.il/online/1/ART2/394/441.html (the Ben Caspit story).
Thanks for correcting my impressions about the Fresh posting. I’ve updated what I published to reflect my understanding of what happened regarding the Fresh posting. But every commenter who claims that the Fresh posting and what I’ve published here are verbatim are dead wrong.
Richard, as a Hebrew speaker, I can testify that you’re wrong and that you posted the exact same thing as the Fresh post (except in English). You’re right that the Fresh post has some extra statements, but in misses none of what your translation includes, and was written a few days ahead of you… It seems like your “source” just sent you a copy of the Fresh post.
What’s the story behind the “Fresh post”?
This is what it looked like to me using google translate.
I wonder how identical the “original” hebrew is.
Original Hebrew please.
The terms under which I was given the document don’t allow me to make the original available publicly. But I’ll check on that again & see if those conditions have changed.
[Anyone who lies about me and my actions will be banned as have you]
How convenient. And since when have you cared about terms and responsibility? Didn’t you claim that “exposing the truth” has a higher moral value than abiding by top secret classifications?
Hypocrite.
Hundreds of cruise missiles.
Launched from what?
A Dolphin Class is not a Virginia Class with its twelve dedicated cruise missile tubes, and Israel does not have even these by the dozen, and it doesn’t have large fleet of surface combatants capable of launching cruise missiles, either.
If they mean air-launched cruise missiles, that’s the Israeli air force fully occupied.
Either they are planning to launch them from mobile ground launchers in Israel, or they planning something like the US Navy’s (abandoned) Arsenal Ship concept, whereby a large transport vessel is stuffed full of cruise missile launchers and very little else.
Or, the barrage of hundreds of cruise missiles is a fantasy.
Yes, the memo was not leaked on purpose, i guess the entire world is stupid. This memo was leaked specifically to add to the bluffing the Israelis have bee doing, and the only reason for this propaganda is to involve the US. Israel would not DARE attack Iran knowing its already surrounded by Iranian forces and all these plans would go down the drain when Iran and Hezbollah destroys Israel.
Israle is just like a bully, bullying its neighbors for decades and crying of to daddy if one of those bullied countries stands up to it. Well hoping that daddy does not respond to these heeds this time around and let Israel settle its matters on its own.
Please please Israel the rest of the world begs you to go ahead with the strikes without the US support. go ahead if you have the bb’s.
I think your image is appropriate: “Israle (sic) is just like a bully, bullying its neighbors for decades and crying of (sic) to daddy if one of those bullied countries stands up to it.”
This may very well be a document describing actual Israeli plans.
However, anybody with a minimum background in military matters could come up with the same identical scenario. It’s all very generic and routine. There isn’t a single piece of information in this “document” that is truly unique or new. Of course you would start with a cyber attack, of course you would try to eliminate air defenses and command and control installations, of course you would use missiles, of course you would want to do some damage assessment before you go to the next phase.
I could come up with a much more detailed scenario in an afternoon of searching the web, with names, equipments, units, pictures, etc. It might even sound plausible.
you should admit that you had a complete FAIL on this one. The document you posted is almost identical, word to word, with few added names, to a post in an hebrew forum of people who discuss army issues. That post was by the admin of that forum and he said it is a scenario his friend wrote and it is written according to open sources ONLY (news reports and the web), about how a succsesful attack on iran would look like. It has nothing to do with the real IDF plans for an attack or iran.
the fake scenario in that forum and your “leaked document” were posted in the same week, they contain almost the same lines (the fake scenario contains some more lines that show clearly that it is fake), and they are identincal in that lines almost word to word. be rational.
This war is pure madness. If we could live with a nuclear US, France, Britain, India, Pakistan, North Korea….we can live with a nuclear Iran….if indeed they ever became a nuclear power.
The madness of the leaders is their stating the war will be limited in retaliation from the Iranians. Iran has a strong military and they will respond. This war will be catastrophic globally. This is not Syria nor Iraq nuclear facilities. Syria and Iraq had little response back but an attack on Iran will be different. This is also not the previous wars Israel has been involved in which were short lived. These are different times and the blowback effects will be far different than what the leadership seems to envision. Perhaps I could use the term of the American and Israeli leadership being delusional.
I don’t think it takes much one to study the world and realize that this war on Iran will be a disaster. This won’t be like the ‘mild’ Iraq war…..the Iranians are not going to roll over and submit to western demands. They will fight and use everything at their disposal. I have little doubt that this war will result in US warships being sunk. Imagine a US carrier sinking below the waters.
And imagine the economy. Globally it is not good now and it will be a depression once the war starts.
I just fail to see how the ‘leaders’ estimate low casualties and a 30 day war. This war is just pure madness.
Saddam thought his war with Iran would be short too. Netanyahu is stupid to think Iran won’t keep coming at Israel if it is attacked.
Seems to leave out a China and Russian response to an Israeli attack. I deem it false. We know the United States is supposed to take the brunt of Israeli aggression.
This is not the attack plan. It was leaked intentionally by Israel as a decoy or to capture a suspected leak. It will be many years before you hear form your “source” again.