UPDATE: Here’s the link for my portion of the BBC Newshour segment in which I was interviewed about the Israeli government document. The entire program, which includes a number of other segments discussing and analyzing the document is here.
Israelis are posting a claim that the document I published is identical to a post published by Fresh, an Israeli gossip/news portal, a few days ago. It is not. My original IDF source leaked the post to a Fresh member and me at the same time. That person published a small portion of the original memo at Fresh, embellishing it with much material that was meant to disguise what it was and where it came from. I can’t ascribe motives to whoever published it at Fresh, but much of it fantasy and isn’t in the original document. This story is now a screaming headline in the Israeli media and at no point has anyone in the Israeli government maintained that this document is anything other than what I claim it to be. They know it is authentic. Anyone else who claims otherwise does so at the risk of their own credibility (if they have any).
* *
In the past few days, I received an Israeli briefing document outlining Israel’s war plans against Iran. The document was passed to me by a high-level Israeli source who received it from an IDF officer. My source, in fact, wrote to me that normally he would not leak this sort of document, but:
“These are not normal times. I’m afraid Bibi and Barak are dead serious.”
The reason they leaked it is to expose the arguments and plans advanced by the Bibi-Barak two-headed warrior. Neither the IDF leaker, my source, nor virtually any senior military or intelligence officer wants this war. While whoever wrote this briefing paper had use of IDF and intelligence data, I don’t believe the IDF wrote it. It feels more likely it came from the shop of national security advisor Yaakov Amidror, a former general, settler true-believer and Bibi confidant. It could also have been produced by Defense Minister Barak, another pro-war booster.
I’ve translated the document from Hebrew with the help of Dena Shunra.
Before laying out the document, I wanted to place it in context. If you’ve been reading this blog you’ll know that after Bibi’s IDF service he became the marketing director for a furniture company. Recent revelations have suggested that he may have also served in some capacity either formally or informally in the Mossad during that period.
This document is a more sophisticated version of selling bedroom sets and three-piece sectionals. The only difference is that this marketing effort could lead to the death of thousands.
This is Bibi’s sales pitch for war. Its purpose is to be used in meetings with members of the Shminiya , the eight-member security cabinet which currently finds a 4-3 majority opposed to an Iran strike. Bibi uses this sales pitch to persuade the recalcitrant ministers of the cool, clean, refreshing taste of war. My source informs me that it has also been shared in confidence with selected journalists who are in the trusted inner media circle (who, oh who, might they be?).
This is Shock and Awe, Israel-style. It is Bibi’s effort to persuade high-level Israeli officials that Israel can prosecute a pure technology war that involves relatively few human beings (Israeli, that is) who may be put in harm’s way, and will certainly cost few lives of IDF personnel.
Bibi’s sleight of hand here involves no mention whatsoever of an Iranian counter-attack against Israel. The presumption must be that the bells and whistles of all those marvelous new weapons systems will decapitate Iran’s war-making ability and render it paralyzed. The likelihood of this actually happening is nearly nil.
There will be those who will dispute the authenticity of this document. I’m convinced it is what my source claims, based on his prior track record and the level of specificity offered in the document. It references cities by name and the facilities they contain. It names new weapons systems including one Israel supposedly hasn’t even shared with the U.S.
No, it’s real. Or I should say that while it’s real, it is the product of the Israeli dream factory which manufactures threats and then creates fabulist military strategies to address them. The dream factory always breaks the hearts of the families of those whose members fall victim to it. It never produces the result it promises, nor will it do so here.
Remember Bush-era Shock and Awe? Remember those promises of precision-guided cruise missiles raining death upon Saddam Hussein’s Iraq? Remember Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” ceremony on the deck of the USS Lincoln, only six or seven years premature? Remember the promises of decisive victory? Remember 4,000 U.S. dead, not to mention hundreds of thousands of Iraqis?
Now, think of what an Israeli war against Iran could turn into. Think about how this sanitized version of 21st century war could turn into a protracted, bloody conflict closer to the nine-year Iran-Iraq War:
The Israeli attack will open with a coordinated strike, including an unprecedented cyber-attack which will totally paralyze the Iranian regime and its ability to know what is happening within its borders. The internet, telephones, radio and television, communications satellites, and fiber optic cables leading to and from critical installations—including underground missile bases at Khorramabad and Isfahan—will be taken out of action. The electrical grid throughout Iran will be paralyzed and transformer stations will absorb severe damage from carbon fiber munitions which are finer than a human hair, causing electrical short circuits whose repair requires their complete removal. This would be a Sisyphean task in light of cluster munitions which would be dropped, some time-delayed and some remote-activated through the use of a satellite signal.
A barrage of tens of ballistic missiles would be launched from Israel toward Iran. 300km ballistic missiles would be launched from Israeli submarines in the vicinity of the Persian Gulf. The missiles would not be armed with unconventional warheads [WMD], but rather with high-explosive ordnance equipped with reinforced tips designed specially to penetrate hardened targets.
The missiles will strike their targets—some exploding above ground like those striking the nuclear reactor at Arak–which is intended to produce plutonium and tritium—and the nearby heavy water production facility; the nuclear fuel production facilities at Isfahan and facilities for enriching uranium-hexaflouride. Others would explode under-ground, as at the Fordo facility.
A barrage of hundreds of cruise missiles will pound command and control systems, research and development facilities, and the residences of senior personnel in the nuclear and missile development apparatus. Intelligence gathered over years will be utilized to completely decapitate Iran’s professional and command ranks in these fields.
After the first wave of attacks, which will be timed to the second, the “Blue and White” radar satellite, whose systems enable us to perform an evaluation of the level of damage done to the various targets, will pass over Iran. Only after rapidly decrypting the satellite’s data, will the information be transferred directly to war planes making their way covertly toward Iran. These IAF planes will be armed with electronic warfare gear previously unknown to the wider public, not even revealed to our U.S. ally. This equipment will render Israeli aircraft invisible. Those Israeli war planes which participate in the attack will damage a short-list of targets which require further assault.
Among the targets approved for attack—Shihab 3 and Sejil ballistic missile silos, storage tanks for chemical components of rocket fuel, industrial facilities for producing missile control systems, centrifuge production plants and more.
While the level of specificity in this document is, in some senses, impressive, in one critical aspect it is deficient. Muhammad Sahimi points out that the current chief of the Revolutionary Guards, when he assumed his position in 2007, deliberately addressed the issue of over-centralization of command and control by dividing the nation into 31 districts. Each of these has its own independent command and control facilities and mechanisms. So Israel wouldn’t be able to knock out a single facility and paralyze the IRG. They’d need to knock out 31 separate sets of facilities–a much harder task.
There seems also to be an assumption that Iran’s leaders and nuclear specialists live nice domestic lives and that Israeli intelligence knows where they all live and can easily target them. In truth, the most senior Iranian military and scientific figures live clandestine lives and it’s hard for me to believe even the Mossad knows where they are and how to target them.
So it appears that Netanyahu believes he’s fighting Saddam circa 2003. During that war, the Iraqi Revolutionary Guards were centralized and knocking out one C&C center could decapitate the entire military apparatus. But Iran has learned from Saddam’s mistakes. It isn’t fighting the last war as Bibi appears to be. It is preparing for the next one. While Israel may have new tricks up its sleeve that no one in the world has yet seen, if it doesn’t understand the nature of the enemy, its defenses, its structure, etc. then it can’t win.
News Alert: I’ve just been interviewed by BBC Newshour’s Julian Marshall and anticipate they will air a segment about this story at 1:30PM UK time and at 9:30AM east coast time (6:30AM west coast). I’m not sure which time it will air in Israel, but I believe it would be 3:30PM. If your NPR station airs BBC World Service you should hear it. I don’t know if it will be repeated any other times during the day. You can tell me that if you hear it.
from what i can tell your source “former minister in a former government” would have to be mofaz…
Reasonable guess. But I wouldn’t tell you whether it was him or anyone else.
Although this plan looks pretty complex, I am sure it makes minor to no harm to Iranian warfare. Dont forget that Iran has a 8 years complete was experience and knows how to keep its defense layers protected. e.g. defense forces are completely independent from public electrical and telephone system. Internet connection is totally banned in military bases and They are far from any kind of silo or nuclear facility, and so much distributed that they need more than “tens”, lets say “tens of thousands” of highly penetrating missiles to make sure they have made an effective damage.
Firstly, well done for publishing. Secondly, well done for publishing manner which respects your source and safe guards them. The world is recovering from Bush’s idiotic war, if half of the rational in this blog is true then it seems Bibi has taken leave of his senses. This is my take (for the record, I’m a former middle ranking para officer and I’m now a oil trader at Investment Banker):
1. Israel has the capacity to severely damage the nuclear infrastructure of Iran, of that there is no question, will the damage be worth the fallout (political and military)?
A. According to Kissinger, any nation that starts a war, typically forgoes American support. Specially in a election year. The calculus in the mind of the Israeli’s Gov, is if they start shooting first and Obama refuses to join the war, can they finish the job militarily? Answer is unlikely. Even more worryingly for Bibi and cohorts, if Obama is re-elected (which is highly probable), Israeli Gov would fear a Suez esq American response.
B. Economically, the first shot will sent oil to $150 dollars per barrel. If Iran expands the war to include Saudi and GCC countries, that will send oil to $300 p/b. Iran’s economy is already crippled, this additional shock will contract their economy by 5%. Israel on the other hand my fail to grow, it may even contract if their reactors suffer direct hits. Israeli GDP is 242.93 billion, thus a 30 day war would cost approximately 10-20 billion, any more than that and you are talking about a really punishing economic output.
C. Military response from Iran range from Missile strikes to Hamas (highly unlikely). The most interesting situation would be regarding Syria who has a defence pact with Iran. They could use this situation to deflect the domestic troubles to Israel’s door. It would only cost them some missiles and they would simply have to pray from some kind of Israeli response (probably via Golan). Hamas is now more aligned with Egypt, thus would sit this out. Hezbollah, would probably heed the call and launch strikes on Haifa and if capable Tela viv.
Ultimately, Bibi’s track record shows, he’s never started a war, he’s merely supported other peoples wars. He’s politically aggressive, but militarily cautious (And rightly so!). I’ll wager this is all a poly to corner Obama/Romney into a Strike post election. Why, because Israel cannot be certain of the successful outcome of a independent strike, thus it will require US might. It will still carry the same penalties, but the truth is, it will ensure the outcome of their goal.
Once again, great article and excellent food for thought.
PS Cost of independent action is easy to gauge for Israel, reason for not committing it to paper is fear it would be leaked. Sacrificing so much in material and treasure on a folly which may not achieve it ultimate goal and committing the theory to paper would sway public opinion so far to against, it would effectively silence their bellicose war drum! Israeli’s are not stupid.
What I don’t understand is, if the Israelis really want to deploy this attack, why would they leak precise information about how they are going to execute it? I can only think of it as a way to decoy Iran in case they do attack.
It’s not exactly “precise.” It provides an outline, but not a precise blueprint.
As they say in Iran “Israel gooh mikhore” to attack Iran.
If Isreal is trying to get the world used to war so they will not be shocked, “he” is wrong. The world will be in shock and owe when Iranians will respond and there will be a 4th world war because we are already in 3rd world war. So, i would advise them to think twice. Can you imagine another country threatening to stage a war against another country constantly? Why is Isreal so agressive? I am amazed about the audacity of these war mongers. We people of the earth need jobs, true peace, and food not wars, violence, prejudice and destruction.
Tell Israel stop war mongering and stop oppressing Palestinians.
I think your analysis of the ‘leaked memo’ is fairly accurate, to me it is the kind of ‘dream’ scenario a boy would put together for an imaginary war he was going to fight. It is too naive with regard to the effectiveness of the strike and the lack of accounting for responsive action by Iran.
I must disagree with your premise that Israel is dealing with an Iran which has moved on from the Saddam culture. During the Arab spring we have seen leaders – Gaddafi for one – who have adopted the strong invincible stance only to crumble when their stance was really put to the test. I wonder if their religious psychology provides a flaw in their strategy.
Having lived in the Middle East, I was surprised, in Kuwait, how reckless some of the young men were in their driving. I was informed that the young people’s view was that God (Allah) would decide when it was time for them to die and so they lived their life as they wished. This ‘not quite being in control of our destiny’ could be a flaw in such cultures’ strategy when it comes to dealing with an offensive on their country.
I like how nobody is discussing the nuclear disaster that would occur if the Israelis successfully bombed the enrichment facilities. This should be seen as a form of nuclear war.
I think this is what the planning is trying to avoid, Ed. It appears that the common belief is that Iran will have the capability to construct a nuclear bomb by the end of this year. So, with the US not wanting to get involved in anything before the Presidential election in November (and sensibly so), it appears Israel is looking at the possibility of ‘going it alone’.
As the first part of my comment indicated and is indicated in Richard’s analysis, the Israelis do not appear to have fully thought through the consequences of any attack but, I suppose, it is a matter at looking at the lesser of two evils. Do you take a risk on destroying the production facilities for a nuclear weapon or do you wait for the nuclear weapon to be created and then deal with all the implications and possibilities of that situation? Sort of between a rock and a hard place.
Sort of between a rock and a hard place.
THe greatest danger for Israel if Iran did have a working nuclear deterrent as ISrael does, is that ISrael will no longer have a free hand to unilaterally attack its neighbours as it did in Lebanon in 2006. Israel attacked Lebanon’s civilian infrastructure, including the international airport, roads, bridges etc without any counterattack not he part of the Lebanese army. Similarly Israel’s impunity when it comes to punishing the entire Palestinian population for resistance and terrorism conducted by various guerrilla groups would be at an end.
There is little chance of nuclear exchange between the two countries as (a) It’s suicide for everyone involved (b) these are two highly religious countries that prohibit such mass destruction on an ecumenical basis and (c) the high level operators in both countries are not as stupid or as reckless as the general public imagines.
Far more belligerent nuclear enemies such as Pakistan and India have thus far refrained from nuclear exchange for similar reasons, as indeed did the USA and the Soviet Union. It’s important to understand that in military circles nuclear armaments are not considered weapons but strategic assets. You can’t actually USE them – that negates their value. That negates everything.
As far as Israel’s dilemma is concerned, even if they carry out a successful attack on Iran and cripple their nascent nuclear industry, what’s to stop them redoubling their efforts in greater secrecy and with more resources? Its a lose – lose scenario.
Reply to Wisdo:
If Israel nukes the centrifuge facilities and nuclear personnel sites then this “lose-lose” becomes a win. Nuking major city centers too would avoid the problems with leaving the Persians standing. This would provide a solution good for at least 10 years and could be extended indefinitely by the occasional additional nuke.
@ graphite: Either this is satire or you’re out of your friggin’ gourd. I don’t know which.
[And now you’re banned]
Is it true that Obama has asked Netenyahu to wait until after the US elections to attack Iran ?
IF it’s true that Obama has close ties to the CIA, that would explain his even handedness in the Middle East.
” We were there to document the event” *
– The five Dancing Israeli’s arrested on 911.
* Interviewed on Israeli television
” We were there to document the event”
That one again?
What’s the connection?
After reading about the alternative versions seen of this document (such as the Fresh posting) I wanted to suggest a possibility. These documents are fairly plausible but at the same time aren’t actually revealing detail to an extent that would endanger any real plans greatly. Instead it may be that what we see is multiple, deliberately varying versions of this document being leaked out to different individuals. There is a tradecraft technique in which this is done to identify a leak – the possible leakers believe they have a document which has gone to a number of people but in fact each is somewhat different. The version that leaks therefore tells the originator who leaked it. The document itself needs to be plausible and may also contain misinformation… hard to say anything about the veracity if indeed it is being used for this purpose. So there is a possibility that your source is being deliberately exposed. And, perhaps another source for the Fresh posting. Or something along these lines.
If that were so Aaron, then the fact that many versions are out there suggests that more than one person is leaking it – which in turn suggests that the Israelis have a lot of disgruntled people on the inside! (By no means impossible.)
However, the tone of the document is not the dry tone of a governmental or military document, but more like the lucid tone of a press release, or even a novelists description. It is not broken down into numbered points or a timeline, but flows like something Tom Clancy might have written. That is not to say that it is not “authentic” – but it raises the question of who is the intended audience.
If it was intra-military, or between military and politicians, it would refer to the “XYZ system” not”… electronic warfare gear previously unknown to the wider public, not even revealed to our U.S. ally” This whole phraseology is like waving a bright red flag. It is like a person telling his friend at the top of his voice “YOU MUST KEEP THIS SECRET AND NOT TELL ANYONE.” In short, the document is real but is itself part of the psychological war. It is not something that the Israelis wanted to keep secret, but something that they wanted to put out there.
The question is whether their plan is to try and provoke an Iranian strike to create an excuse, to intimidate the Iranians into some sort of backing down (unlikely to occur) or to pressure the US into attacking Iran. I do not know what they hope to achieve, but I know a set-up when I see one.
Not sure what you mean by “many versions.” As far as I know, there is only one version that was disseminated to me and a Fresh member. The document may’ve been shared in confidence with ministers, MKs, & a few selected journos. But none of them leaked it.
I think the document is a cross between a military document and a press release. Clearly there was some military input into it. But it seems more likely that a PR flack either in the PM’s, defense minister’s, or NSA office put the final version together.
I’d also emphasize that military-intel experts were asked to vet the document & they say it looks credible in terms of the weapons systems mentioned & what they knew of what Israel was developing.
I was paraphrasing Aaron’s “multiple, deliberately varying versions of this document.” The style is more press than military, although there is clearly military information. But it’s written in the tone of some one who wants the info to be “out there.” It’s like the writer wants to make sure that the layman understands it. I’m sure the details are credible and realistic, but I can’t escape the thought that the Israelis WANT this document to be in the public domain – like they’re playing some dangerous kind of game.
(who, oh who, might they be?)
Jeffrey Goldberg in the US? I’ll leave out my special Israeli Gogs.
You had better apply for asylum in Ecuador! Great post!
Has anyone ever stopped to examine the justiification for this conflict? It’s pretty much born out of a single remark made by Ahmadinejad several years ago which was twisted and taken out of context to mean something it didn’t. Namely the “wiping Israel off the map”. When in reality, his remark was not about destroying Israel (the term “wiping off the map” is a saying used in the west, NOT at all in farsi (the iranian language). Instead it was a throw away comment about the fact that maps shouldn’t show Israel because in his eyes, it was an illegal state which should not be recognised. I don’t necessarily agree with the sentiment, but at the same time it’s important to realise that within minutes of him saying it, it was twisted into something malevolent by western propaganda which set the wheels in motion for where we are today. It was manipulated so well that it reminds me of the saying – a lie is half way round the world while the truth is still putting its shoes on.
To back up the point I’d like to suggest everyone think about the idea of Iran using nuclear weapons to destroy Israel. A laughable notion for the following reasons.
1) The Iranian leadership are not idiots. Iran knows (as does everyone) that Israel is a nuclear power, and that any nuclear attack would guarantee the same response from Israel (and probably the US) resulting in the total destruction of Iran.
2) Secondly, quite simply…what would be the point? Firstly, Iran would be destroying the 2nd holiest site in Islam, namely Jerusalem, which is pretty much what this whole conflict has been about for the last 63+ years – the very sacred site it now wants to destroy? Yeh that makes sense!
3) Also, it would result in the deaths of millions of palestinians, including their allies in Hamas. Unless you are naive enough to think a nuclear attack can destroy certain parts of Israel without significant and considerable collateral damage throughout Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan and Lebanon. I’m sure Hamas and Hezbollah wouldn’t feel too excited by that. And once again, isn’t the reason Iran is at loggerheads with Israel bcos of its support for the palestinians – the very people we now think it’s happy to destroy?
In case anyone thinks it, I’m not saying Iran is the god guy in all this. I’m sure they would prefer Israel not to exist, but they’re not some madcap, foaming at the mouth, rabid, psychopathic, clueless barbarians that the west like to make out – hell bent on destroying Israel. In their recent history (over the last 30+ years) they’ve not actively sought military conflict (unlike certain other countries in this debate).
Finally, I want to add that this isn’t (and should not be) seen as a conflict between jews and muslims and/or christians. No, this SHOULD be a conflict between moderate jews, muslims, christians against the extremist christians, muslims, jews. I hope and pray there are enough moderates in all these major faiths who are prepared to join forces to build a better future rather than a destructive one. Thank you for reading.
I’m approving this comment because you are a new commenter here and because I think most of your comment is worth viewing. But I do not want to reopen the issue of what Ahmadinejad did or didn’t say about Israel. So let’s steer clear of that one since it’s been discussed & debated here ad infinitum and ad nauseam.
I happen to agree with you, Richard, the use of the quote is starting to get boring. On the other hand I found Ahmadinejad’s UN speech rather shocking. But the rest of the comment is absolutely good.
Interesting in our context, the following statement by the Israeli decision maker. Maybe indeed Ehud Barak?
Ironically enough, we are lectured that Iran waited 4.000 years to create an atomic bomb. Really?
But of course Avi Shlaim can’t be correct that the Iron Wall wasn’t meant to last forever, either. Or was it indeed meant to expire one day? And if there is an international consensus concerning Iran, whatever international means in this context, there is also one concerning “Judea and Samaria”. At what point can the Iron Wall strategy be given up?
What I am really wondering about how much support there is in Israel for no war against Iran, in other words Ari Shavit’s position the US should do it versus the “knowledgeable decision maker’s” we have to do it on our own. Interesting how carefully he avoids even trusting Romney. Admittedly I haven’t paid much attention lately.
Are you sure this is not simply propaganda to keep the issue alive and the other one off the table?