28 thoughts on “Barak Confidant: Israel Has Decided to Attack – Tikun Olam תיקון עולם إصلاح العالم
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  1. Richard, I think you are falling for a bluff. The best way to see it is to disregard rhetoric and consider the facts: Israel cannot stop the Iranian nuclear program. It’s only bet is that it can drag the US into the war and the only way the US can stop the Iranian nuclear program is to invade Iran, spend a trillion dollars that it doesn’t have, and waste another ten or twenty thousand soldiers doing that while gas prices at the pump are at $8-$10 per gallon for months. That is not to mention risking confrontation with Russia and China.

    So it is obviously not an American interest to have a war with Iran, but Netanyahu and Barak are counting on their fellow Republicans to be frothing at the mouth and egging Obama to go to war to save “our poor little ally”. However Obama can pre-arrange a confrontation at the UN Security Council with China and Russia which will preclude any US involvement at the risk of nuclear escalation. Then the great powers will just pass resolutions to end the hostilities, thus Israel will not achieve its objectives.

    The likely fallout from such a scenario (including nuclear fallout both in Iran and possibly in Israel as the Dimona facility will be the first to be targeted…) is that Iran revives and accelerates its nuclear program, this time for military purposes even if there hadn’t been one before.

    1. Yes it’s a bluff!! ( well 95-05 odds on,at least……..even Bibi is capable of surprise! )
      The next step in the propaganda escalation will be fortune cookies distributed throughout the U.S. with the message…..
      ……. “There are lessons to be learned by listening to Bibi”

    2. RE: “Richard, I think you are falling for a bluff.” ~ Ahad Haadam

      MY COMMENT: Don’t count on it ! ! !

      SEE: “Another avoidable war” ~ by Gideon Levy, Haaretz, 8/05/12

      [EXCERPTS] Israel will attack Iran within a few weeks, according to the former head of Military Intelligence, Maj. Gen. Aharon Ze’evi Farkash. He made this announcement to Israel, Iran and the rest of the world on Channel 2 news Friday night.
      We can assume that Farkash, one of the most responsible and restrained of speakers, knows what he’s talking about.
      He didn’t retire in bitterness and he doesn’t have many personal accounts to settle, as far as is known. He wasn’t shooting from the hip or out of a desire to sabotage the plans.
      Of course, he was subject to the hint of a reprimand by the head of our national information agency, television reporter Roni Daniel. But Daniel, too, couldn’t hide the impression Farkash’s remarks made on him. Israel is about to start another avoidable war.
      We’ve had four or five avoidable wars − it depends on how and which ones you count − not one of which achieved its desired end. Now Israel is about to embark on another one. Each war was first depicted as an overwhelming success, applauded by nearly everyone. People were even very moved at first. Only after days and then months went by did Israelis wake up from a dream and realize it was a nightmare − another avoidable war. . .
      . . . Israel is prepared for this avoidable war, unlike the earlier ones. Operations experts have done their research and come up with the number of Israelis to be killed − 200 to 300 if everything goes as planned, according to the operations department. . .

      ENTIRE COMMENTARY – http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/another-avoidable-war.premium-1.455968

      AND SEE: “As Netanyahu pushes Israel closer to war with Iran, Israelis cannot keep silent”, By David Grossman, Haaretz, 8/03/12
      Why aren’t ministers and defense officials standing up right now, when it is still possible, and saying: We will not

      [EXCERPT] Here’s a possible scenario: Israel attacks Iran despite the strenuous opposition of President Barack Obama, who is practically pleading that Israel leave the work to the United States. Why? Because Benjamin Netanyahu has a historical mind-set and a historical outlook under which, basically, Israel is “the eternal nation” and the United States, with all due respect, is just the Assyria or the Babylonia, the Greece or the Rome, of our age. Meaning: We are everlasting, we are an eternal people, and they, despite all their strength and power, are merely temporary and ephemeral.
      They have narrow and immediate political and economic concerns: They are worried about the impact an attack will have on oil prices and the election, while we exist, always, in the realm of Eternal Israel. We carry within us a historical memory dotted with flashes of miracles and triumphant salvations that transcend logic and reality. Their president is a bleeding heart who believes that his enemies use the same rational thinking that he does, while we have spent the last 4,000 years in a bitter struggle with the darkest Stygian forces in history and the darkest human impulses, and know full well what is required to survive in these twilight zones.
      Some would surely find this portrayal anxiety-inducing, but the prime minister would probably consider it a fitting description; he would even take it as a bit of a compliment. As things stand, the prime minister enjoys the support of a broad coalition and is not pestered by a solid opposition. In a sense, he is functioning as an autocrat – King Bibi, as Time Magazine called him. Meaning that when fateful decisions have to be made, the Israeli people’s future and destiny will be subject, above all, to the judgment of Netanyahu’s extreme, rigid and unbending worldview. . .

      ENTIRE COMMENTARY – http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/as-netanyahu-pushes-israel-closer-to-war-with-iran-israelis-cannot-keep-silent.premium-1.455672

      1. P.S. ALSO SEE: “Bibi: Israel Will Raise ‘David’s Sword’ Against Iran” ~ By Richard Silverstein, Tikun Olam, 9/28/11

        (excerpt) . . . But the most interesting and frightening element of the interview was his [Netanyahu’s] comments about Iran. Other reporters have been noting that Bibi lately has been waxing apocalyptic and mystical about the possibly oncoming war with Iran. In this interview he says:

        Iran’s nuclear programs are turning it into an existential danger to the State of Israel. The question is not just what Israel is doing to stop it, but what the world is doing. The awareness by the world community that Iran is progressing on a track toward developing a nuclear weapon obligates it to act so that Iran does not get this weapon. With every day that passes, Iran gets closer. The obligation of the international community to act grows as the fear [that Iran progresses toward a bomb] does.
        You must keep in mind: that we aspire toward peace; but at the same time we must wield the sword of David to defend the Jewish State.

        Of course, in Bibi’s skewed world-view, David’s sword was raised only to defend his people, not in aggression against a victim. But we should keep in mind that David’s sword slew an Israelite enemy and led to the killer’s annointment as King of Israel. . .
        …Bibi (and to a lesser extent, Barak) have a very complicated complex that is little short of messianic and frightening. In the past, I’ve written dismissively about Bibi saying he has no principles and that even his so-called Jewish values appear to be manufactured. Now, I’m not so sure. And I don’t know which is worse, a megalomaniac with no principles or values; or a Jewish megalomaniac with religious-nationalist principles and values. They both scare the living hell out of me. . .

        ENTIRE COMMENTARY – https://www.richardsilverstein.com/2011/09/28/bibi-israel-will-raise-davids-sword-against-iran/

      2. Gideon Levy: “Israel will strike Iran’s nuclear facilities before spring” (Ha’aretz, Feb 5, 2012)

        Thankfully, his predictions have been off the mark on this subject for some time now.

  2. Ehud Barak and the rest of the gang have invested heavily in oil futures. Hence, the sabre rattling. Ask about their portfolios, Richard.

    Military analysts continue to eat popcorn. “And how will you perform this marvelous feat, Ehud?” Ehud: “I will thnake my way through!” Ya, good luck this time.

    Vet my suggestion please about the portfolios and it will become very clear. The other parts I have “msg’d” you, you may ignore as it pleases you.

  3. I am writing a play. Here is an excerpt:

    Act III – “10 years later…”
    Barak: “We are going to cut our own wrists! YOU CAN’T STOP US!!!!!”
    The World: *rolls eyes* “Okay, Barak…. cut your own wrists….”
    Barak: “I’m gonna do it! I’M GONNA DO IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”
    The World: *blink, blink*
    *Orchestra slowly begins to play the world’s tiniest string instruments*
    The World: “Time to move on.”
    Barak: “no, no…wait!” *hangs noose around neck* “I’LL HANG OURSELVES!”
    Richard Silverstein appears from Stage Left with Laptop in hand and types in a headline while saying out loud, “Barak proposes public suicide for Israel.”
    Hasbarist poofs up out of nowhere: “But Richard, I think instead of public suicide you should call it ‘the only way out’ because Israel has tried diplomacy! How else can the most peaceful nation on Earth progress when it is surrounded by warmongers?”
    *Curtain Falls*

    1. 1. How does one get access to Barak’s investment portfolio? Or Bibi’s?
      2. I am so sick hearing about Israel “defending” itself. It has “defended” itself into lunacy, just as your play suggests. Sick of hearing about the “10,000” rockets from Gaza, the intransigence of the Palestinians, the intent of Iran to attack Israel sometime or other after it develops nuclear warheads. Sick also of hearing about Israel’s “rights” and its “right to defend itself.” It is all disgusting crap.

  4. Ahad – If only human beings were rational then what you say would be absolutely the case. History is full of the the irrational and that of Israel is no exception. What part did the impact of the Bible on Balfour have in his decision? What part does the Bible play in the minds of Christian Zionists? What part does the Holocaust play in the thinking of Netanyahu and Israelis in general?

    Someone reading Mein Kampf could conclude that Hitler was insane, many thought that there was absolutely no chance he would ever gain power.

    People live and act on what is in their heads, sometimes colored by the actual facts such as those you’ve mentioned. I would not be surprised to hear of an Israeli attack tomorrow, though I hope I will not.

    1. Not to ruin the suspense, but no one in the entire pantheon of power is insane or irrational to the point of deliberately committing to a predictable failure or loss power.

      Not Netanyahu, not Barak, not Khamenei, not Ahmadinejad, not Obama, not Clinton — not even Hitler. Intellectually speaking, they are simply not insane. The madman caricature is a useful one, eh? All of the above employ logic and rationale. One may say they lack moral fiber and are motivated by factors that are unethical (even to the highest degree), but as for crazy, that requires nepotism and inbreeding. 🙂

  5. You could make some money on Intrade. They have the odds well under 50/50 of such an attack in the next year (between now and June 2013). I know it is somewhat morbid but if your prediction turns out to be true you could nearly triple your investment. And if it turns out not to be true, so much the better for the world.

    1. Unlike good investors, Intrade is always on the trailing edge of financial or political predictions. They had Obama tremendously long odds even when he appeared likely to win. Not that I want a war. I just don’t think Intrade is a good projector of realistic odds.

  6. Three observations:

    1. An attack on Iran would require an enormous amount of preparation. There has been some, but seemingly not nearly enough. Despite the loose talk, no one seems to have exposed massive preparations. It is almost all hearsay. I’d say 5% chance of dumb open attack by Israel on Iran, at least before next summer.

    2. Sanctions against Iran are due to its violations of NPT, not due to any belief that an Iranian bomb is on the immediate horizon. I realize that people wink-wink at treaty violations if countries **THEY** judge are morally OK do the violating, or if their opponents are not morally OK in their less-than-humble opinion. That’s a bad idea. Treaties should mean something, and violating treaties should have consequences. The world will be a vastly more dangerous place if treaties have no meaning — and we are heading that way.

    3. Backchannel negotiations between Iran and the West are still continuing. Why should anybody go to war when the diplomats are still talking, or at least still playing “chicken”?

  7. Iran getting the bomb would stop Israel of harassing its neighbors & prevent Israel of using its A bombs. Checkmate. Look at India & Pakistan!! They are even talking to each other now.

  8. Why would Israel attack Iran when they can just get the US to attack with another false flag on the US like 9/11? The US government can’t wait to start a major war to distract the people from the disastrous economy.

  9. It is amazing that one small state, outnumbered 20,000 to 1, could be considered the neighborhood bully!
    All the while Admadijad raves regularly about how he will remove Zion or Israel, few seem to see the real threat. How do you intellectuals suppose he might simply erase one state from the map?
    Israel does have the right to exist and will continue to exist. She is always on trial for just being born.

  10. If Israel has decided to do this its because its the only feasible option to letting Iran start an era of nuclear black mail against them. Iran only has to launch one nuclear missile on the right target to cripple Israel and expose them to ground attack and overrun. They need to prevent that possibility at all costs even if they are embargo’d. The other reason they would take that decisive step is if the US has secretly agreed to support them with foreign aid to prevent economic collapse and also help fight Irans counter attack. Israel must have certain intellegience that Iran is on the verge of completing their bomb development.

    1. But Iran doesn’t have any nuclear missiles nor an army that could attack Israel on the ground. There is no neighboring power strong enough to invade Israel by land, and any nuclear attack on Israel will also cause severe repercussions in terms of nuclear fallout for its neighbors. I’m afraid your nightmare scenario isn’t convincing. Try again.

    2. “Nuclear blackmail?” Isn’t that Israel’s game? Iran would provide a balance of power in the region. The ME is always aflame because of Israel. Israel is the destabilizing factor in the ME, without regard for boundaries, borders, and a penchant to use arms full out again and again. Where do you get your intell?

      1. So you’re for the destruction of Israel to remove what you call its “destabilizing influence”. Thats what you call balance of power I suppose. As far as I know Israel isnt threatening to arbitrarily destroy its Arab neighbors. Love your narrow and highly selective view of the middle east.

        1. Balance means balance. It is the one-sided power of Israel militarily that is destabilizing. Ask Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, Syria..even Iraq, all of which have been subjected to Israel “self-defense” (as they call it!) Israel is threatening to “arbitrarily destroy its Arab neighbors” all the time. Everyday, Israeli leaders announce that they are going to attack Iran. What is that? “Preventive war”, eh? So, Iran striking Israel would be “preventive war” (and justifiable in my opinion) as well. Where have you been? Who’s “narrow” perspective?

  11. Richard Silverstein just suppose for one moment if all the threats made by Ahmadinejad and the Ayatollahs about their religion and how they believe they must act to bring the return of their god is the true purpose and they do detonate a nuclear bomb in Israel . Will you apologize to all the sacrificed Israeli children for what you and others like you have done . Or will you just sit in your high tower of judgment and say oh well now we don’t have to make a blog about Israel because it is gone. Shame on you. If HaShem is real he sees you and what you do. Do you not remember Hitler and how people said oh he is not really killing the Jews.

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