A senior Likud politician told my confidential Israeli source that Bibi Netanyahu has decided to delay an Israeli attack on Iran until some weeks or possibly months before the next scheduled Israeli election. That will happen by October 2013 unless Bibi determines he wants to go to the nation earlier.
This is the strategy that Menachem Begin followed in attacking Saddam’s Osirak nuclear plant. There was a national election scheduled in 1981. He launched an attack beforehand, it succeeded, and he squeaked by with a victory which might never have happened had he not attacked.
But what Bibi is doing is a huge gamble, even more than Begin’s, which itself was a very big one, and certainly more than Olmert’s attack on the alleged Syrian nuclear reactor. The last two wars Israel has fought were abject failures and quite unpopular within Israel (though not immediately so). The leader who conducted those wars was drummed out of office (though not directly due to the military failures). If my source is correct, then Bibi will be betting on an attack being popular with the public (a given, since Israelis rally behind any leader taking them to war). But he will also be betting that IDF defensive systems (and any related help offered by the Americans) can neutralize any Iranian response. That seems less likely.
Of course, 2013 is a year and a half away and a lot can change between now and then. So it will be hard to determine whether my source is right. If I were a betting man I’d bet Bibi will attack before then, well before then. But then again, I’m not a senior Likud politician, who presumably has Bibi’s ear.
Did your source say anything about the israeli-palestinian conflict in all of this? The peace process?
I wonder how much the attack on Gaza on 2008/9 was a cynical measure by Olmert and designated leader Livni to increase the popularity of Kadima before the election.
It’s probably figured also that next year is better to give time for sanctions to play out (important also for public opinion), the world economy to stabilize more, oil to be stockpiled and defenses against Iranian counterattacks to be strengthened.
Also more time for preparing support in the media for the idea.
But it looks more and more likely to happen sooner or later, a drumbeat like this ends in war eventually. Unless events in Iran take a major turn, Khamenei is getting old and won’t last forever.
The key to the puzzle is whether the US publicly opposes an Israeli attack .
If Netanyahoo strikes without direct American public support and US lives are lost from anti-ship missiles in the Persian Gulf (a result only recently acknowledged in US war games), Israel will bear the complete blame for the loss of those lives – the US public will ask why should American lives be sacrificed for Israeli hegemony when there is no direct threat to the US itself.
Then, what of the “special relationship”?
The public didn’t ask about Iraq…and barely reacted when no WMD were found!! Why then should they ask about Iran? The American public is opposed to war but why does this matter? Once the shooting starts, Americans will just yahoo with Yahoo, so to speak.
“…Americans will just yahoo with Yahoo, so to speak…”
Chet is spot on and David is dead wrong.
The sad, disgusting tale of the US blundering into wars of choice have been told and retold across the political landscapes of the US so thoroughly, that any attack against Iran by Israel or the US will most assuredly not see American’s dancing in the streets.
It took several months after the infamous “Mission Accomplished” charade to learn the Iraqi invasion was a mistake. It will only take several weeks, if not days, including the ‘usual suspects’ who lust for it to realize the enormity and full scope of the “strategic disaster” attacking Iran will warrant.
The ‘usual suspects’ who stooged the US into unwinnable wars in the the M/E got away with their scalps on their heads. The same fools are tempting fate twice.
I understand. I just never saw the neocons crucified because of Iraq. Instead, they are back and up to same old nonsense about unilaterally shaping reality in the ME. I’d like to believe that Americans will react negatively to losses as a result of Israeli provocation, but I can’t see it. I hope I am dead wrong about this.
Well, since Bibi can call the election whenever he feels like it, the news hasn’t changed: Iran gets bombed whenever Bibi feels up to it. Could be this spring with elections in the summer just as easily as sometime in 2013. It all depends on the Vozdh (or, translated from the Russian, the Boss.).
RE: “A senior Likud politician told my confidential Israeli source that Bibi Netanyahu has decided to delay an Israeli attack on Iran until some weeks or possibly months before the next scheduled Israeli election.” ~ R.S.
ALSO SEE: Netanyahu’s ‘King David’ Complex, by Paul Pillar, Consortium News, 4/02/12
ENTIRE COMMENTARY – http://digg.com/newsbar/Politics/netanyahu_s_king_david_complex_consortiumnews
* P.S. That’s why I sometimes (only half-jokingly) refer to “The Dissociative State of Israel”!
Dissociation (psychology) – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissociation_(psychology)
P.P.S. Apparently Perle, Feith, the Wurmsers, etc. were aware of Netanyahu’s ‘King David’ Complex when they referred to “securing the Realm“!
FROM WIKIPEDIA:
SOURCE – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Clean_Break:_A_New_Strategy_for_Securing_the_Realm
AND FROM Free Online Dictionary:
realm (rlm)
n.
1. A community or territory over which a sovereign rules; a kingdom.
P.P.P.S. The kingdom of Israel or “The Dissociative State of Israel”?
Dissociation (psychology) – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissociation_(psychology)
Perle and his friends are traitors.
I believe Congress should make a special exemption by allowing an ‘act of attainder’ against the self described ‘cabal’ of traitors, with ‘corruption of blood’ against descendents and down the bloodline to the 3rd remove.
Fortunately these scoops have turned out to be wrong in the past. There was one last year that suggested an attack was coming by September of 2011. Thank goodness that did not come to pass.
These threats are in the same vein as the sprinklings of Goldman/Spenglerian pixie dust of ‘October surprises,’ which repeatedly failed to materialize. If zealous Zionists know what’s good for them, they will insure these infantile mentalisms will end the same way.