44 thoughts on “100 Iranian Missiles Will Penetrate Defenses, Hitting Israeli Targets After First-Strike – Tikun Olam תיקון עולם إصلاح العالم
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  1. I am one of those few who on the right, against an attack on Iran.
    However, the report you quote is missing a number of significant aspects. Primarily, that
    the arrow system is not the sole source of ballistic interceptors in Israel’s arsenal.

    Also, the last time I commented on your blog was when you wrote about the doom and gloom that Israel would face in September….

    1. Not quite true. There are many on the right in Israel who oppose an attack. 53% of Israelis oppose an attack on Iran w/o U.S. support. Are u saying that everyone of those Israelis are leftists? Meir Dagan, Eli Yishai, Avigdor Lieberman, Benny Begin, & Bogie Yaalon all oppose an attack & all are on the right.

        1. Each system has an error rate. No weapon will down every missile. So regardless of whether Israel has 20 anti missile systems, some will get through. IT’s a question of how many & how much damage they will do. Meir Dagan & many other experts think the damage & suffering will be horrific. You don’t. Who should we beleive? Hmmm, that’s a hard choice!

          1. Would these be the same experts who predicted doom and gloom in September, or maybe the same experts who assured Israelis of the wonderful peaceful result of the disengagment?

  2. Am pleased that I found your articles. Such information will never be published in the western controlled media.
    Seems like there is an agenda in place ,attack Iran,attack Iran , never mind the consequences to the 1000s of Israelis who become victims to this madness.

  3. The missiles are just the obvious retaliation. 14 year old hookah fires have never caused half a state’s land to go up in flames. Israel’s vulnerabilities are many and Israel has never seen a real foe like Iran.

  4. So you don’t buy the claim from the Israelis that the attack on Zuhir al-Qaisi was because he was organizing a large, coordinated terror attack to be carried out on Israel’s border with Gaza?

    Do you buy the claim that he was behind the Highway 12 bus attack that killed eight Israelis last year?

    1. Not only do I not buy it, the liars who first advanced it don’t either because they haven’t repeated it since. Read Neve Gordon’s Al Jazeera piece I linked to. He’s following the Israeli media even more closely than I & that’s what he says.

      I wrote 10 posts about the Eilat attack. Read them to find out what I think about who was behind the Eilat attack.

      1. Thanks for the response. I’ve read that piece in Al Jazeera. It does contain some very convincing information. I do however think it is possible that he was planning an attack of some kind. The PRC has not been opposed to such things in the past. The two claims are not necessarily mutually exclusive. It could be that he was planning attack and also that Israel wanted to test its capabilities.

  5. In that Azerbaijan is a Muslim state and that Israel’s aim is to bomb another Muslim state, what is the motivation of the Azerbaijanis to provide military assistance?

      1. And generations of ethnic persecution by supposed Muslim brothers. This hasn’t really been reported in the West, except briefly after the breakup of the Soviet Union. But they did claim to be much persecuted and there was a bit of violence during the breakup, coupled with population movement by people trying to get into areas that were “safe” for their ethnicity.

        Some of these ethnic tensions are older than Islam.
        The Soviets both hid and exploited them, and it’ll be a few generations yet before the dust settles, especially as lots of families had to abandon property.

        1. Most of the population of Azerbaijan, like most of the population of Iran, is Shiite. And the Azeri population of Iranian Azerbaijan, around Tabriz, which speaks the same language as the Azeris of Azerbaijan, is not persecuted.

          If the Azerbaijanis resent persecution by any Muslim brothers, I imagine it is persecution by Sunnis

          1. I understand there is an Azeri nationalist movement in Iran that causes enormous friction with the Iranian regime. There is lots of friction between Azerbaijan & Iran which is one of the factors Israel exploits to it’s advantage.

  6. Your assessment that a 100 Iranian missiles will penetrate the Israeli defense system is based on the whirl wind.
    To calculate such ratio a simple calculation based on the general performance of the iron dome system will not suffice. to gain any type of accuracy one will need to know what was the performance success ratio of the iron dome against multiple simultaneous rockets launches.

    one would need to know what is the Iranian capabilities to launch simultaneous Multiple missiles. How many missile launchers they have, what’s the relaunch time frame is etc.

    Arrow system though never tested in combat will have no problems intercepting a single missile, the problem will be with simultaneous launches, above a certain number.

    Besides one needs to remember that Israel has deterrence over Iran with the ability to turn Iranian country side to a huge parking lot in seconds, Iranians knows that and will restrain themselves (unless of course you are suggesting they are irrational – do you ?).

    1. If they don’t restrain themselves, they will launch as much as possible of every type in the shortest possible time-frame.

      The small, cheap and crude rockets from Gaza and Lebanon may fatally confuse the tracking computers of the Arrow system trying to concentrate on longer-range threats. Arrow will work, providing that there’s at least one sensor platform on the far side of the “fog” of small weapons.

      If the Arabs give Israel real-time data from their own anti-missile radars, and they do have these, then I think they may succeed in intercepting most or all of the long-range weapons. Not only would it be easier to process into intercept tracks, it would be whole minutes earlier.

      But if the short range stuff in the meantime turns out to have lethal chemical warheads, this won’t be much help.

      Persian Advocate seems to be threatening a simple arson campaign around towns and settlements, (like property developers do in Greece, Dorset, California, New South Wales etc) and that might actually be an effective weapon.

      I wouldn’t want, either, to ignore the possibility that a big enough hail of small rockets might start brush fires all over the North of Israel which might then force the evacuation of all the settlements that Iron Dome protects. You wouldn’t want to face such a barrage in a drought, that’s for sure.

      1. Fred, i fear you need to do some reading.

        The radar systems of the arrow system, iron dome pac 3c and american systems (if needed), are interconnected. the systems can distinguish between short range rockets to medium and long range missiles, and launch the appropriate countermeasure against the relevant threat. One of the signal feeders is the american x-band radar stationed in the Negev desert (which makes the need for the Arab feed obsolete).

        as for the rest of the suggestion by PA, i think you should check the number of rockets fired by Hezbollah during the war in 2006, to realize that the peripheral damage caused by them is limited.

        i fear the doom and gloom prophecies will not come to fruition.

        1. Thank you for patronizing me.
          I’m not at all sure that you actually understand the subject better than I do.
          The ability to distinguish between different objects depends on being able to process the sensor returns from multiple objects.

          If there are an awful lot of them, the radars can’t do the job.

          There is no magic wand which stops a radar recieving returns from the wrong type of object: it receives them all and then has to sort them all out digitally. Being “American” does not, in my experience, suddenly endow a sensor system with extra powers.

          Interconnecting lots of radars can compound the processing problems, in fact. And if the closest you get to the source is the Negrev, the long range weapons will be well on the way before they can be detected.

          We will see how well it works if the number of tracks seen at once gets over five hundred or so at any point. Bearing in mind that any incoming rocket destroyed in flight becomes a number of tracks: easily distinguished in tests where one or two rockets are destroyed, another matter when hundreds are involved.

          The numbers of launchers in Lebanon is reported to have increased several fold since 2006. Also, the tactics back then were to keep firing rockets off to keep the political pressure up over a period of time, there was no attempt to saturate defences by firing as many as possible in a short period.

          The fires started by one rocket are easily put out. However, as the Nazis found when they bombed Rotterdam (after surrounding it and it being declared an open city) in a deliberate experiment, if enough munitions start enough fires at once, it isn’t possible to extinguish fires faster than they can spread and join up.

          The Nazis narrowly failed to recreate this effect in London in January 1941, and to this day neo-Nazis describe Arthur Harris as a war criminal because his attempts generally succeeded.

          With both defence saturation and “peripheral” damage becoming all-consuming damage, the key is “concentration” the number of weapons delivered in a short period of time. If some of the figures for the numbers of stockpiled weapons are correct, Israel will have a problem and it will hurt.

          It is hard to see how any attack in Iran can be contemplated without a concurrent and massive onslaught to suppress the launching of weapons from nearer at hand. This is where resources and political will may become stretched.

          1. Fred
            Today’s radar’s operate quite well and can distinguish between rockets that are a threat and may open in congested area to those who will fall in open spaces. Against the first they would react against the seconds they will not. Accordingly they can handle scores of rockets simultaneously using fats computers, and confusing a radar this days, is not as easy as it was during WWII. Causing city fires is much harder in Israel as with comparison to Rotterdam, Dresden or Japan, Different materials are used for infrastructure.
            Your doom and gloom estimates do not consider the IDF in their equation nor they consider the Iranians launch ability or the political environment in the relationship between Hamas and Iran or Hezbollah and Iran and the latest Hamas and Hezbollah statements about their future participation in such war.

          2. Your account of Rotterdam is wrong – it was under ground attack when the bombers were called in as support, pending surrender negotiations. When word came through, they were recalled, but some didn’t receive the message and bombed anyway.

            It was not an experiment, although Frampol maybe was.

            As for Harris, he stated quite clearly that his intent was to kill the maximum number of civilians, and destroy as many cities as possible. As did Churchill for that matter.

            The Nazis committed genocide, but not via the Luftwaffe. Harris tried it with Bomber Command, but was disappointed with the results.

        2. The damage caused by Hezbollah was minimal? You mean other than over 100 deaths & 1/3 of the country in bomb shelters for weeks on end, not to mention the psychological trauma? Other than that damage was minimal? And you haven’t explained how Israel would fare given that at least 20% of the missiles Iran succeeds in firing at Israel will actually hit their targets or reasonably close to them. After Bibi launches his foolish adventure we’ll return to your own prophecy and see how clairvoyant you were.

          And have you explained how these systems & all IDF military systems will maintain electrical power when Iran’s missiles shut the regular national power grid down.

          1. In Israel,most if not all essential systems and buildings have backup batteries and/or generators.
            The likelihood of an lone Israeli attack on Iran,which was never above 40% now slowly diminishes by the day.

          2. Backup batteries or generators are not the same as having a functioning national power grid. Without this condition will eventually seriously deteriorate. As for chances of an attack: they’re above 50%, that’s for sure. Closer to 60%+ in my estimation.

          3. You are mixing apples and bananas.
            You are combining the number of civilian casualties and the number of IDF casualties. 44 civilians died as a result of Hezbollah’s rockets. Hezbollah launched 4,000 rockets. This is not a rate of casualties Israel will not survive from.
            When the alternative is facing the chance the Iranians will use nuclear weapons against the state of Israel, i rather face Hezbollah’s & Hamas retaliation. I know you claim that the Iranians are rational, i would like to remind you that those “rational” people sent their kids (aged 9 to 16) to clear the Iraqi minefields, armed with a $2 Chinese made “key to heaven” hanging on a chain around their necks. Doesn’t sounds like the behavior of rational people to me.
            And if you are willing to take that risk from your home in Lake Seattle, excuse me but that really doesn’t count.

  7. RE: “Gareth Porter does some excellent reporting during his current trip to Israel… He focuses on the lack of Israeli psychological preparation or awareness of the danger they face from an Iranian counter-strike after Israel’s pre-emptive attack.” ~ R.S.

    MORE SPECIFICALLY: “The Netanyahu government has been telling Israelis that Israel can attack Iran with minimal civilian Israeli casualties as a result of retaliation…” ~ Gareth Porter article of 3/30/12

    I.F. STONE (1967): “All governments lie, but disaster lies in wait for countries whose officials smoke the same hashish they give out. ~ from In a Time of Torment, 1961-1967 (1967), p. 317
    SOURCE – http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/I._F._Stone

  8. “. . .Israel will not be the same country physically or psychologically afterward”. No doubt. If the current wisdom that social infrastructure are a principal target is wrong, but settlements are, the character of the surviving state may be much different than those of the intellectual auge presume.

  9. The IRANIAN counterpunch is going to be much wose than what your imagining.

    200 mobile GPS guided ballistic missiles are pinpointed at the ISRAELI nuclear reactors … this is their first target. IRANIANS use thermobaric ( FUEL AIR EXPLOSIVES ) warheads which cause a massive punch and cause widespread damage. The IRANIAN goal is to turn ISRAEL into the next CHERNOYBL if you dare strike them.

    Second targets will be the jet fuel storage tanks at the airfields, jets without fuel are worthless. Germany had 1000 ME 262’s on the ground after WW2, no fuel made them useless.

    IRAN just activated their newly acquired Chinese DF 31 ICBM’S which can carry a warhead 10 X larger than anything before.

    IRAN has the S 300 and TOR M 1 anti aircraft systems, no airforce in the world wants to tangle with these. RAND predicts Israel will lose 80% + of their aircraft on each wave that attempts to penetrate IRANIAN airspace. IRAN has world class anti aircraft systems rated A by JANES DEFENSE… IRAN is no IRAQ, and IRAN of 2012, is not the IRAN of 1979 when IRAQ attacked them.

    ISRAEL wil never be the same, if it even exists should she go down this path.

    1. From 10,000 feet away, all Iran needs is a box of matches as Israel still does not have the infrastructure to put out a fire.

    2. If Iran bombs Dimona, given the prevailing winds, most likely will also radiate Jordan, Suadi Arabia and eventually Iran itself.

      1. So you’re saying the supposedly fanatical and irrational Iranian government is not going to attack Dimona because it would be irrational and suicidal to do so?

    3. Dude, you have got to chill out.

      Its easy to claim a large arsenal of missiles, but its another thing to get them to work…

      FAE is a rather volatile concoction and is not used in ballistic missiles. I suggest you read up on the topic before your next post.

      “…TOR M 1 anti aircraft systems, no airforce in the world wants to with these. Israeli aircraft have successfully attacked targets inside Syria that was well defended by TOR systems. Does that count as a tangle?

      With just a bit more reading you will note that none of the S-300 versions have ever fired a missile in a real conflict so the claim that Israel will loose 80% of its aircraft is a guess at best.

      Although if we follow your theory, Israel’s arrow 2 and 3 have as much probability of intercepting a DF 31 as Iran has of launching one usefully.

      1. And how will Israel stop 200 million Iranians world wide from engaging in a multi-generational struggle to uproot righteously every single Israeli family tree ever in existence? Love the short-run thinking on this one.

        1. Thank you PersianAdvocate in finally helping me understand what the Iranian president means when he calls to remove the Zionist regime. If i had any prior doubts that my initial impression was right, i read your conspiracy theories and accusations towards the state of Israel about 9/11 and Toulouse (which are borderline anti-Semitic) and now this to know the true meaning of your words are.
          Thank You So Much.

      2. No, “80%” is not a “guess,” it’s based on the expert opinion of the Israeli defense official who ran the nation’s Arrow program for 7 years. Which is 7 yrs longer than you did. And neither have the Arrows fired a missile in a real conflict. So we’re all even it appears.

  10. If you cared to follow correctly you would notice that I was quoting claim made by Tony about Israel losing 80% of their aircraft in an attack.
    I am not disputing the effectiveness or inabilities of the Arrow.
    Some of us remember all to well the SCUDS that rained down on us from Iraq and the horrible things we were told would happen by the experts.

  11. Admitting not being an military-expert: 450 warheads is nothing – that’s a joke. Simply multiply 450 by the explosive load per rocket – and compare the outcome to what Israel dropped on Lebanon in 2006 alone. You know, that Lebanon exists – still?

    The point is: Israel has not the capacity to destroy Iran – unless it uses nukes – but the US has. Israels well known plan is to drag the US into a war against Iran – by dramatically exaggerating the damage caused by Iranian rockets – making the US and the West paying the price – perhaps bringing down the regimes in the other gulf-states.

    Btw. I don’t understand, why Israel wants to attack Iran, which has neither plans to occupy Israel – nor the means to destroy it (btw. for what political reason? Destroy it just for fun?). Even if Iran had nukes, they would never use them – trust me – I live in Germany, that would have been transformed in a radio-nuclear desert in the first day of WW III, but that didnt happen – deterrence, stupid.

    As Israel is not really threatened by Iran, my question is: what do the criminals in its goverment really intend with their attack on Iran. Have another nakba? Or are they – like (?) Barak – simply dangerous psychos or mad dogs?

  12. What zealous Zionism’s barking dogs refuse to acknowledge is that Iron Dome’s vaunted 80% success rate against low tech, low cost, limited range and highly inaccurate Qassam rockets is nothing to brag about. These toy’s the Palestinians are harassing Israelis with are DUMB ordinance, armed with peek-squeak 5, 10 or 20 lb warheads.

    To date Qassam rocket attacks have caused zero infrastructure damage, several hundred injured and 15, 22 or 28 Israelis killed (depending upon the source the numbers vary wildly) in the past 11 years. In comparison IDF provocations and retaliatory raids have killed 1,100 (Israeli claim) to 1,400 (HAMAS claim) Gazans and caused thousands of wounded.

    However, the most fascinating fact is the “widespread psychological trauma and disruption of daily life” that paralyses the Israeli state when under Qassam rocket attack. This national hysteria is massively out of proportion to the insignificant offensive capability of the Palestinians.

    And the so called anti ballistic missile system, Israel’s Arrow in all its versions is not much to rue about either. So long as the missiles targeted are DUMB SCUD’s and simulated exercises, Israelis make the claim that 90% of all incoming ballistic missiles can be destroyed. The problem with this scenario is that the Iranians are diligently developing their ballistic missiles as a “buss,” that can one day deliver a MIRVed package with maneuverable, independently targetable warheads with dummies and jamming capabilities on the bus.

    MIRVed ballistic missile systems render anti ballistic missile systems obsolete and the Iranians are well aware of it.

    I suspect the Iranians would not retaliate against an Israeli attack. Personally, I believe they should lust for such a stupidity the Israelis are munificently capable of. Its well established the IDF does not have the strike capability to damage or set back the Iranian nuclear program. Its also very clear the US does not want Israel to attack Iran. In the event of an Israeli provocation the smart moves for the Iranians is the UN, global opprobrium against Israel and banning the IAEA from all its nuclear sites.

    If the Iranians are truly smart they would demonstrate restraint under the most grievous circumstances, while at the same time going all hog for a nuclear deterrence. In the aftermath of an Israeli strike no one would blame them. Including the US.

  13. This is crazy…as I’m reading all your comments here I’m thinking: what is wrong with these people? They talk about all this Rocket this and missile that…what is wrong with you people? Are we turning into bunch of warmongerers? But, here’s my thought on all this:
    Why should Iran remove their nuclear program? The law needs to apply to everybody equally. When you discriminate against some countries and put other countries above the law, you turn the law into a farce. Then the international order breaks down and you are left with “Might Makes Right”. That may be good for War Inc., but perpetual war is not good for ordinary people.
    If you are concerned about nuclear weapons, why not agree to Iran’s proposal for a nuclear-FREE zone in the Middle East. When the U.N. General Assembly voted on this proposal, the U.S. and Israel were the only two countries to vote against. That tells us which countries put their FAITH in nukes and which countries do not.
    I think you overestimate the power of death and destruction – e.g., you can not use nukes to educate children or grow crops or sustain an economy or build a house. And you project your own infatuation with nuclear bombs onto other countries. Not all countries idolize nukes the way you do. Iran has explicitly rejected them, and years of inspections have turned up NO evidence that Iran is developing nukes.
    Finally, for argument sake, let’s say Iran does have or are developing Nukes, I don’t think the Mullahs are that stupid to attack Israel. Mullahs are survivors, they know if they do attack Israel with nukes or give them to anyone else to plant them somewhere in Tel Aviv the retaliation would mean the end of their existence ( I said their existence; they care about themselves and not millions of other innocent Persians who hate them as much as anyone else).

  14. How do we know it’s 450? They have quite a few different models, some MIRVed, and are unlikely to give accurate figures out on the total numbers. It could be a lot more, to which has to be added Hezbollah’s arsenal, although Hamas has said they won’t necessarily participate. By mid next year it’s likely a hundred more at least again. So the numbers that get through could be somewhat higher than these estimates, especially if fired in mass volleys. How much damage they would do is unclear, but some of them are accurate to within metres. It could be very nasty.

  15. The most advanced Iranian ballistic missile is the Fajr-3 ballistic missile (not to be confused with the Fajr-3 artillery rocket), which the Iranians in 2006 claimed can deliver a MIRVed warhead.

    If this is true than the presumption of 100 out of 400 missiles getting through Israel’s anti-ballistic missile shield is false. The correct perspective would be on the total number of warheads an Iranian MIRVed ballistic force can throw at Israel. And that could number anywhere from 1,200 to 4,000 independently targeted warheads, not 400 missiles.

    Make no mistakes about Iranian capabilities. The ‘International Institute for Strategic Studies’ main focus is on nuclear deterrence and arms control. They consider Iranian development of ballistic missiles and delivery systems as nothing less than “impressive.”

    Should the Iranians develop nuclear armaments and miniaturize them as warheads on ballistic missiles, its moot how many missiles can penetrate Israels defensive shield. More than enough would find their targets and turn every square inch of the holy land into a molten lakes of leaping lava and incinerated nuclear ash.

    It’s already too late to prevent Iran from becoming a “nuclear capable” state. Is it too late to prevent by diplomacy Iran becoming a “nuclear armed” state?

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