Iran War Game Predicts Dire Consequences for U.S. Forces After Israeli Attack
The NY Times reports that a U.S. military war game simulation found that an Israeli attack on Iran drew a massive U.S. response after a U.S. warship was attacked and sunk by Iranian forces:
The two-week war game, called Internal Look, played out a narrative in which the United States found it was pulled into the conflict after Iranian missiles struck a Navy warship in the Persian Gulf, killing about 200 Americans, according to officials with knowledge of the exercise. The United States then retaliated by carrying out its own strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
The initial Israeli attack was assessed to have set back the Iranian nuclear program by roughly a year, and the subsequent American strikes did not slow the Iranian nuclear program by more than an additional two years.
…Officials said that, under the chain of events in the war game, Iran believed that Israel and the United States were partners in any strike against Iranian nuclear sites and therefore considered American military forces in the Persian Gulf as complicit in the attack. Iranian jets chased Israeli warplanes after the attack, and Iranians launched missiles at an American warship in the Persian Gulf, viewed as an act of war that allowed an American retaliation.
These results are in fundamental accord with a 2010 Israeli war game simulation I reported here and also agree with a report on this subject authored by Anthony Cordesmann. But they fundamentally disagree with the standard narischkeit Jeffrey Goldberg is penning. In a Bloomberg column, he predicts an Israeli war against Iran soon. He quotes this bit of Israeli wishful thinking:
One conclusion key [Israeli] officials have reached is that a strike on six or eight Iranian facilities will not lead, as is generally assumed, to all-out war. This argument holds that the Iranians might choose to cover up an attack, in the manner of the Syrian government when its nuclear facility was destroyed by the Israeli air force in 2007. An Israeli strike wouldn’t focus on densely populated cities, so the Iranian government might be able to control, to some degree, the flow of information about it.
Some Israeli officials believe that Iran’s leaders might choose to play down the insult of a raid and launch a handful of rockets at Tel Aviv as an angry gesture, rather than declare all-out war. I’m not endorsing this view, but I was struck by its optimism.
…Some Israeli security officials also believe that Iran won’t target American ships or installations in the Middle East in retaliation for a strike, as many American officials fear, because the leadership in Tehran understands that American retaliation for an Iranian attack could be so severe as to threaten the regime itself.
It never ceases to amaze me that the putative intelligence mavens of a nation contemplating a war against another country would predicate their plans on the fact that the victim will simply roll over and play dead. On what planet does that happen? Certainly not this one. And don’t anyone dare compare this to Syria because Iran is not Syria. If anyone is foolish enough to believe the Syrian scenario will play out regarding Iran, then they almost deserve the black eye they’ll get after the real response happens.
40 thoughts on “Iran War Game Predicts Dire Consequences for U.S. Forces After Israeli Attack – Tikun Olam תיקון עולם إصلاح العالم”
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d.sanger of the NYT had a piece, ‘imagining an israeli strike on iran’, back in march 2010. when i re-read it recently, it seemed much more conservative in its ‘imaginings’ of a successful outcome. apparently, the article was subsequently edited, as ‘an earlier version . . . included maps that contained geographical errors.’ the article was based on a simulation managed by kenneth pollack of the saban center. one of the conclusions reached in that simulation was that
“It is worth noting that even this highly aggressive Iran
team specifically chose not to create problems for the
United States in Iraq or Afghanistan, or to otherwise
directly attack American targets.”
i’m not sure about that.
The dangers of arming Israel with American weapons and diplomatic support – and how that fuels Israeli aggression in the region
Time to establish a No Fly Zone over Israel by stopping giving them American weapons and then pretending if Israel uses them the Israeli Lobby in the US hasn’t been going along with that the whole time
What Israel may really be counting on is not the Americans finishing the job for them, but the Arabs doing so more ruthlessly than America probably could. Not even AIPAC is going to get the White House to sanction ethnic cleansing or the systematic destruction of all civil infrastructure.
If Iran really did lash out as randomly and viciously as some advocates have boasted they would, the Arabs might react this way, but probably not otherwise. Iran does have something to lose by lashing out in all directions, though.
Winning a war against Iran with Arab help, would probably leave Israel in pretty much the same place as losing it. There’s a danger in taking decisive action, in that it can lead to a cascade of decision-making by every government in the region, which is something most of them are famous for avoiding.
“…Iranians launched missiles at an American warship in the Persian Gulf”
Why the use of the singular “an” when the reality would be that ALL American vessels, both military and civilian, in the Persian Gulf would be attacked, resulting not in 200 American deaths, but thousands.
At the risk of tiresomely repeating myself: Iran possesses thousand of anti-ship missiles against which the US has no defence.
Israel’s government is simply trying to squeeze as much as it can out of a situation where it’s able to (indirectly) cause the Americans (along with some others, Israel itself included) a massive damage.
The chances that Israel does attack are reminiscent of those of a mugger actually embedding his brick in the passer-by’s skull. As it’s obviously not in the lowlife’s interest, most such altercations end bloodlessly. The risk exists, however, of the situation getting out of hand, in which case a whole hell’s let loose.
What I was trying to say is that though not intending to actually go out and do it, Israel’s getting ready to the possibility of its brinkmanship falling just over the brink…
Like I said, Israel would never in its right mind attack Iran, even with US aid (they could have done that for 30 years now without announcing it from the rooftops). The aim was always to levy unjust sanctions against Iran and in a best case scenario have a world power do Israel’s work (again) in destroying a regional competitor. Unfortunately for Israel, no world power is willing to do this. The parties willing to go to war in Syria are the same that fraudulently pom-pom’d us into Iraq. These people are being told to take a hike. We can take this as an indication of Israel’s ability to get a major world power to do its bidding. However, Israel is the king of false flags (Lavon Affair, USS Liberty, 9/11), and by Mossad’s own motto, “By Way of Deception, Thou Shall Do War”, so don’t expect the story to be through just yet.
There do exist those that do not care for Israelis, Americans nor Iranians. Bibi Netanyahu, Ehud Barak, the Neocons, Israeli-firsters in US Congress, and more are big and little fish in the conspiracy, a real “meeting of two or more minds to further or progress a negative deed” (btw). As war profiteers, they do not pick up the gun, suffer the personal tragedies and endure the horrors of war. They do not care if all three countries and those below them in the feeding chain depopulated from the Earth so as to leave a manageable few to enslave in their neofeudal kingdoms. They choose war over peace because they have no legitimacy in a time of peace. Their power wanes with progress, human unity, and the passing/strengthening of knowledge. They platform on war and right-wing medieval ideologies to the detriment of the national interest and solely in the favor of their political advancement. Power; not money – the printing presses are already under their control.
Meir Dagan told us exactly who they were, in part. It’s time to figure out if a Mossad ex-chief blowing the whistle on something like this is a critical event or a bluff that furthers the Israeli gambit to levy UNJUST and FRAUDULENT sanctions? You can take Meir Dagan’s warning as valid. IMHO, you can take his reason for making it as fraudulent also – it’s obviously a move to further the Israeli gambit of “we’re going to blow the whole damn world up if you don’t do something about it” aka the Samson option. It gives Netanyahu’s “hold me back” routine some legitimacy. I do not trust Meir Dagan and do not believe he would suddenly break rank on a big issue like this.
However, I do believe that his action makes the likelihood of false flag by Israel to induce the world into war on its behalf much greater. Mark Perry’s recent article on the Mossad impersonating the CIA to recruit and pay Jundullah members (a listed FTO btw!) sheds light on just the tip of this iceberg. As far as Israel is concerned, when America comes to pummel a regional competitor, they benefit. Netanyahu even made this explicitly clear.
Look at the troop counts. How many Israeli troops have died aiding America in Afghanistan and Iraq? 4000? 3000? 2000? 1000? 500? 1? Oh, that’s right, zero.
This post is off the charts.
You think 9/11 was an Israeli false flag operation?
I am speechless.
Bob Mann, you’re on a computer. Why don’t you look it up? Persian gave you some references. You think you’re speechless now? The rabbbit hole runs deep.
Well, the Israeli connection to 9/11 is no spring chicken: http://www.antiwar.com/justin/j030802.html
Sorry to shock you, Bob. Of course, with Iran recently being named as a suspect in 9/11, one has to, at least, consider all angles! After all, this was murder. It wasn’t a sacred murder. No, you cannot jail someone for investigating it.
In fact, just Google the term “Israel 9/11” in quotations and tell me if you can dig up anything proving legitimately that any of the damning facts (mountains) are groundless.
But also, one must keep perspective. Was 9/11 an “Israeli” or “American”, or for that matter, “Saudi Arabian” “Muslim” etc. act? One must be careful to not to allow groups to be judged by individuals or individuals to be judged by groups lest the association be mutually ratified.
I shudder to think of what you might have turned up when Googling “Israel 9/11”.
I’m sure it’s a rich tapestry.
I’ve warned you that 9/11 conspiracy theories are OFF-TOPIC & not welcome here. I don’t want to moderate you, so please respect my wishes on this.
Richard, with all due respect, what I wrote may not be popular, but it is well-supported. In my own defense, 9/11 was a gray area/connection used to build impetus for the Iraq war. The striking similarities between the run-up to Iraq and Iran are evident here. In addition, false flags are simply a well established modus operandi for Israel. Thus, my raising the issue. The lack of substantive reply and ad hominem should be proof enough that I struck a few of the right notes.
Out of respect to you, I will refrain from commenting further on the topic.
Thanks for refraining from the topic. I appreciate it.
The kindness with which you deal with some off-topic posts is in stark contrast with the brusqueness you apply to others. For the life of me, I do not understand it.
Bob, why don’t you bring up a counterargument instead of trying to silence me like a school child?
PersianAdvocate, are you asking me to bring up a counter-argument to your assertion that 9/11 was an Israeli false flag operation?
Even after the blog owner just made a post stating: “9/11 conspiracy theories are OFF-TOPIC & not welcome here”?
I’m sorry but I won’t be baited into violating the blog rules.
Thanks for your discipline & following the guidelines.
here Bobby bobby bobby, *sprinkles bread crumbs*
lol.. what can I say, you got me. Agreed. Let’s end it on that note. My views are not Richard’s obviously.
RE: “You think 9/11 was an Israeli false flag operation?
I am speechless.” ~ Bob Mann
SEE – Insider trading on 9/11: the facts laid bare, by Lars Schall, Asia Times, 3/20/12
LINK – http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/NC21Dj05.html
That article does not suggest that 9/11 was an Israeli false flag operation.
Incidentally, Lars Schall is an interesting character.
The article certainly suggests that someone had advance knowledge of the 9/11 attacks, and that they likely gained said knowledge from CIA and/or Israeli intelligence sources. That’s damning enough for me!
“You think 9/11 was an Israeli false flag operation?
I am speechless.”
Me too, or I would be if I weren’t used to all sorts of theories online. Even the truthers seem to disagree with each other on key points. My own theory is that the internet puts us into contact with alternate realities in parallel universes. It’s the only rational explanation for some of the stuff I read. The alternative, which is that the web is full of people spouting nonsense, is too incredible to be believed.
I will refrain from defending myself only because the reality defends itself.
Yeah, zero. And zero in Iraq. With friends like this….
Israel has already benefited from the “hold me back” strategy, getting tough sanctions on Iran in exchange for what? For not attacking Iran? Nope. In exchange for nothing at all. American foreign policy (if there even is such a thing) is about as solid and unassailable as a toy airplane in the hands of Israel and his fellow travelers in the states. Everyday Americans, all the John Does, must look like morons to the rest of the world.
USS Liberty. G*d damn!
“As war profiteers, they do not pick up the gun, suffer the personal tragedies and endure the horrors of war.”
I’m pretty sure Ehud Barak and Benjamin Netanyahu have more combat experience than you do.
I’m sure Persian meant war profiteers to include corporate profiteers not these politicians.
“There do exist those that do not care for Israelis, Americans nor Iranians. Bibi Netanyahu, Ehud Barak, the Neocons, Israeli-firsters in US Congress, and more are big and little fish in the conspiracy, a real “meeting of two or more minds to further or progress a negative deed” (btw). As war profiteers, they do not pick up the gun, suffer the personal tragedies and endure the horrors of war.”
Nope, I included them. I don’t believe for a second that Netanyahu and Barak know any more about war than the IDF soldier captured and crying on the Mavi Marmara.
NOT TAKING THE BAIT, sorry
What you would call “war” I would call a theater setup for an easy PR Win.
You don’t know anything about me. What we do know is that they are fat middle aged men who have never seen a real war against a country that could decimate Israel in 20 minutes (Iran, literally). 300,000 rockets is no joke. Why do you think Barak doesn’t actually own his apartment?
Does this look like someone who’s never “experienced the horrors of war”?
Hey, Persian advocate, you might want to look at Neve Gordon’s article at Common Dreams to see if Israel is bluffing or not.
Published on Wednesday, March 21, 2012 by Common Dreams
Preparing Israel for War
Recent raids on Gaza were not just about allocating more money to defense – they were also about war with Iran.
by Neve Gordon
‘They choose war over peace because they have no legitimacy in a time of peace’
Brilliantly put, PA
They have no power in time of peace. They have no legitimacy in any case.
RE: “…Officials said that, under the chain of events in the war game, Iran believed that Israel and the United States were partners in any strike against Iranian nuclear sites and therefore considered American military forces in the Persian Gulf as complicit in the attack.” ~ NYT
PARODYING ISRAELI HASBARA: Iran has a right to defend itself! Iran has a right to defend itself! Iran has a right to defend itself! Iran has a right to defend itself! Iran has a right to defend itself! Iran has a right to defend itself! Iran has a right to defend itself! Iran has a right to defend itself! …[ad nauseam]
RE: “One conclusion key [Israeli] officials have reached is that a strike on six or eight Iranian facilities will not lead, as is generally assumed, to all-out war.” ~ Jeffrey Goldberg’s narischkeit
SEE: How Many Violations of US Arms Laws are Too Many? ~ by Franklin Lamb, Counterpunch, 3/16/12
ENTIRE ARTICLE – http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/03/16/how-many-violations-of-us-arms-laws-are-too-many/
Begin was just sick with Zionism or he thought it was anti-Semitic to question him about the use of American weapons. Or is that part of the sickness?
SPEAKING OF “BEING SICK WITH ZIONISM”, SEE: Israel’s Nuclear Triggers, by Grant Smith, Antiwar.com, 3/20/12
ENTIRE ARTICLE – http://original.antiwar.com/smith-grant/2012/03/21/israels-nuclear-triggers/
The USA should tell the world the result of a DIFFERENT war game. Same Israeli attack on Iran, SINGLE Iranian attack on USA warship — possibly sinking it. And then NO USA RESPONSE. NONE.
Just like Israeli attack on USN Liberty (1967). Let it happen. Cost of support to Israel. No reason to let matters get even more costly.
Let Iran and its friends retaliate against Israel and NO USA RESPONSE. NONE.
STAY OUT. Warn Israel now. Tell the USA public in advance, and tell IRAN in advance.
That would be a good strategy but not doable. A doable one would be hold back until havoc is raised in Israel from Iranian retaliation, maybe a week, and then come in to get the sides to a cease fire and save the administration from AIPAC retaliation.