40 thoughts on “Iran War Game Predicts Dire Consequences for U.S. Forces After Israeli Attack – Tikun Olam תיקון עולם إصلاح العالم
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  1. d.sanger of the NYT had a piece, ‘imagining an israeli strike on iran’, back in march 2010. when i re-read it recently, it seemed much more conservative in its ‘imaginings’ of a successful outcome. apparently, the article was subsequently edited, as ‘an earlier version . . . included maps that contained geographical errors.’ the article was based on a simulation managed by kenneth pollack of the saban center. one of the conclusions reached in that simulation was that

    “It is worth noting that even this highly aggressive Iran
    team specifically chose not to create problems for the
    United States in Iraq or Afghanistan, or to otherwise
    directly attack American targets.”

    i’m not sure about that.

  2. The dangers of arming Israel with American weapons and diplomatic support – and how that fuels Israeli aggression in the region

    Time to establish a No Fly Zone over Israel by stopping giving them American weapons and then pretending if Israel uses them the Israeli Lobby in the US hasn’t been going along with that the whole time

  3. What Israel may really be counting on is not the Americans finishing the job for them, but the Arabs doing so more ruthlessly than America probably could. Not even AIPAC is going to get the White House to sanction ethnic cleansing or the systematic destruction of all civil infrastructure.

    If Iran really did lash out as randomly and viciously as some advocates have boasted they would, the Arabs might react this way, but probably not otherwise. Iran does have something to lose by lashing out in all directions, though.

    Winning a war against Iran with Arab help, would probably leave Israel in pretty much the same place as losing it. There’s a danger in taking decisive action, in that it can lead to a cascade of decision-making by every government in the region, which is something most of them are famous for avoiding.

  4. “…Iranians launched missiles at an American warship in the Persian Gulf”

    Why the use of the singular “an” when the reality would be that ALL American vessels, both military and civilian, in the Persian Gulf would be attacked, resulting not in 200 American deaths, but thousands.

    At the risk of tiresomely repeating myself: Iran possesses thousand of anti-ship missiles against which the US has no defence.


  5. Israel’s government is simply trying to squeeze as much as it can out of a situation where it’s able to (indirectly) cause the Americans (along with some others, Israel itself included) a massive damage.

    The chances that Israel does attack are reminiscent of those of a mugger actually embedding his brick in the passer-by’s skull. As it’s obviously not in the lowlife’s interest, most such altercations end bloodlessly. The risk exists, however, of the situation getting out of hand, in which case a whole hell’s let loose.

    What I was trying to say is that though not intending to actually go out and do it, Israel’s getting ready to the possibility of its brinkmanship falling just over the brink…

  6. Like I said, Israel would never in its right mind attack Iran, even with US aid (they could have done that for 30 years now without announcing it from the rooftops). The aim was always to levy unjust sanctions against Iran and in a best case scenario have a world power do Israel’s work (again) in destroying a regional competitor. Unfortunately for Israel, no world power is willing to do this. The parties willing to go to war in Syria are the same that fraudulently pom-pom’d us into Iraq. These people are being told to take a hike. We can take this as an indication of Israel’s ability to get a major world power to do its bidding. However, Israel is the king of false flags (Lavon Affair, USS Liberty, 9/11), and by Mossad’s own motto, “By Way of Deception, Thou Shall Do War”, so don’t expect the story to be through just yet.

    There do exist those that do not care for Israelis, Americans nor Iranians. Bibi Netanyahu, Ehud Barak, the Neocons, Israeli-firsters in US Congress, and more are big and little fish in the conspiracy, a real “meeting of two or more minds to further or progress a negative deed” (btw). As war profiteers, they do not pick up the gun, suffer the personal tragedies and endure the horrors of war. They do not care if all three countries and those below them in the feeding chain depopulated from the Earth so as to leave a manageable few to enslave in their neofeudal kingdoms. They choose war over peace because they have no legitimacy in a time of peace. Their power wanes with progress, human unity, and the passing/strengthening of knowledge. They platform on war and right-wing medieval ideologies to the detriment of the national interest and solely in the favor of their political advancement. Power; not money – the printing presses are already under their control.

    Meir Dagan told us exactly who they were, in part. It’s time to figure out if a Mossad ex-chief blowing the whistle on something like this is a critical event or a bluff that furthers the Israeli gambit to levy UNJUST and FRAUDULENT sanctions? You can take Meir Dagan’s warning as valid. IMHO, you can take his reason for making it as fraudulent also – it’s obviously a move to further the Israeli gambit of “we’re going to blow the whole damn world up if you don’t do something about it” aka the Samson option. It gives Netanyahu’s “hold me back” routine some legitimacy. I do not trust Meir Dagan and do not believe he would suddenly break rank on a big issue like this.

    However, I do believe that his action makes the likelihood of false flag by Israel to induce the world into war on its behalf much greater. Mark Perry’s recent article on the Mossad impersonating the CIA to recruit and pay Jundullah members (a listed FTO btw!) sheds light on just the tip of this iceberg. As far as Israel is concerned, when America comes to pummel a regional competitor, they benefit. Netanyahu even made this explicitly clear.

    Look at the troop counts. How many Israeli troops have died aiding America in Afghanistan and Iraq? 4000? 3000? 2000? 1000? 500? 1? Oh, that’s right, zero.

      1. Bob Mann, you’re on a computer. Why don’t you look it up? Persian gave you some references. You think you’re speechless now? The rabbbit hole runs deep.

      2. Well, the Israeli connection to 9/11 is no spring chicken: http://www.antiwar.com/justin/j030802.html

        Sorry to shock you, Bob. Of course, with Iran recently being named as a suspect in 9/11, one has to, at least, consider all angles! After all, this was murder. It wasn’t a sacred murder. No, you cannot jail someone for investigating it.

        In fact, just Google the term “Israel 9/11” in quotations and tell me if you can dig up anything proving legitimately that any of the damning facts (mountains) are groundless.

        But also, one must keep perspective. Was 9/11 an “Israeli” or “American”, or for that matter, “Saudi Arabian” “Muslim” etc. act? One must be careful to not to allow groups to be judged by individuals or individuals to be judged by groups lest the association be mutually ratified.

        1. I shudder to think of what you might have turned up when Googling “Israel 9/11”.

          I’m sure it’s a rich tapestry.

          1. Richard, with all due respect, what I wrote may not be popular, but it is well-supported. In my own defense, 9/11 was a gray area/connection used to build impetus for the Iraq war. The striking similarities between the run-up to Iraq and Iran are evident here. In addition, false flags are simply a well established modus operandi for Israel. Thus, my raising the issue. The lack of substantive reply and ad hominem should be proof enough that I struck a few of the right notes.

            Out of respect to you, I will refrain from commenting further on the topic.

          2. The kindness with which you deal with some off-topic posts is in stark contrast with the brusqueness you apply to others. For the life of me, I do not understand it.

          3. Bob, why don’t you bring up a counterargument instead of trying to silence me like a school child?

          4. PersianAdvocate, are you asking me to bring up a counter-argument to your assertion that 9/11 was an Israeli false flag operation?

            Even after the blog owner just made a post stating: “9/11 conspiracy theories are OFF-TOPIC & not welcome here”?

            I’m sorry but I won’t be baited into violating the blog rules.

          5. here Bobby bobby bobby, *sprinkles bread crumbs*

            lol.. what can I say, you got me. Agreed. Let’s end it on that note. My views are not Richard’s obviously.

        1. That article does not suggest that 9/11 was an Israeli false flag operation.

          Incidentally, Lars Schall is an interesting character.

          1. The article certainly suggests that someone had advance knowledge of the 9/11 attacks, and that they likely gained said knowledge from CIA and/or Israeli intelligence sources. That’s damning enough for me!

      3. “You think 9/11 was an Israeli false flag operation?
        I am speechless.”

        Me too, or I would be if I weren’t used to all sorts of theories online. Even the truthers seem to disagree with each other on key points. My own theory is that the internet puts us into contact with alternate realities in parallel universes. It’s the only rational explanation for some of the stuff I read. The alternative, which is that the web is full of people spouting nonsense, is too incredible to be believed.

      4. Yeah, zero. And zero in Iraq. With friends like this….

        Israel has already benefited from the “hold me back” strategy, getting tough sanctions on Iran in exchange for what? For not attacking Iran? Nope. In exchange for nothing at all. American foreign policy (if there even is such a thing) is about as solid and unassailable as a toy airplane in the hands of Israel and his fellow travelers in the states. Everyday Americans, all the John Does, must look like morons to the rest of the world.

        USS Liberty. G*d damn!

    1. “As war profiteers, they do not pick up the gun, suffer the personal tragedies and endure the horrors of war.”

      I’m pretty sure Ehud Barak and Benjamin Netanyahu have more combat experience than you do.

        1. “There do exist those that do not care for Israelis, Americans nor Iranians. Bibi Netanyahu, Ehud Barak, the Neocons, Israeli-firsters in US Congress, and more are big and little fish in the conspiracy, a real “meeting of two or more minds to further or progress a negative deed” (btw). As war profiteers, they do not pick up the gun, suffer the personal tragedies and endure the horrors of war.”

        2. Nope, I included them. I don’t believe for a second that Netanyahu and Barak know any more about war than the IDF soldier captured and crying on the Mavi Marmara.

          NOT TAKING THE BAIT, sorry

      1. You don’t know anything about me. What we do know is that they are fat middle aged men who have never seen a real war against a country that could decimate Israel in 20 minutes (Iran, literally). 300,000 rockets is no joke. Why do you think Barak doesn’t actually own his apartment?

    2. Hey, Persian advocate, you might want to look at Neve Gordon’s article at Common Dreams to see if Israel is bluffing or not.
      Published on Wednesday, March 21, 2012 by Common Dreams
      Preparing Israel for War
      Recent raids on Gaza were not just about allocating more money to defense – they were also about war with Iran.

      by Neve Gordon

  7. RE: “…Officials said that, under the chain of events in the war game, Iran believed that Israel and the United States were partners in any strike against Iranian nuclear sites and therefore considered American military forces in the Persian Gulf as complicit in the attack.” ~ NYT

    PARODYING ISRAELI HASBARA: Iran has a right to defend itself! Iran has a right to defend itself! Iran has a right to defend itself! Iran has a right to defend itself! Iran has a right to defend itself! Iran has a right to defend itself! Iran has a right to defend itself! Iran has a right to defend itself! …[ad nauseam]

  8. RE: “One conclusion key [Israeli] officials have reached is that a strike on six or eight Iranian facilities will not lead, as is generally assumed, to all-out war.” ~ Jeffrey Goldberg’s narischkeit

    SEE: How Many Violations of US Arms Laws are Too Many? ~ by Franklin Lamb, Counterpunch, 3/16/12

    (excerpt). . . Alarm centered on whether or not Israel had used U.S.-supplied antipersonnel cluster bombs against civilian targets during its carpet bombing West Beirut during the nearly three month siege.
    The House Foreign Affairs Committee held hearings on this issue in July and August 1982. On July 19, 1982, the Reagan Administration announced that it would prohibit new exports of cluster bombs to Israel…
    …During a late June 1982 meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Begin, Reagan was handed a note from George Shultz. Based on the information he had in hand, Reagan directly told Begin that the US had reliable information than Israel was using American weapons against civilians in Lebanon. At this point according to Reagan, Begin became very agitated. He lowered his glasses and while glaring at Reagan and shaking his index finger said, “Mr. President, Israel has never and would never use American weapons against civilians and to claim otherwise is a blood libel against every Jew, everywhere.” Following their meeting Reagan told Defense Secretary Casper Weinberger, as reported by Weinberger and by various biographers of Reagan that “I did not know what the term “blood libel” meant, but I know that the man looked me straight in the eyes and lied to me.”. . .

    ENTIRE ARTICLE – http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/03/16/how-many-violations-of-us-arms-laws-are-too-many/

    1. Begin was just sick with Zionism or he thought it was anti-Semitic to question him about the use of American weapons. Or is that part of the sickness?

      1. SPEAKING OF “BEING SICK WITH ZIONISM”, SEE: Israel’s Nuclear Triggers, by Grant Smith, Antiwar.com, 3/20/12

        (excerpt) FBI files detailing Israel’s stealth acquisition of U.S. nuclear triggers were declassified and released on Dec. 28, 2011. The FBI’s secret Portland and Los Angeles inter-office communications were originally scheduled for release in the year 2036. Their availability today reveals how Israel’s elite spy networks acquire U.S. nuclear technologies while evading criminal and diplomatic consequences.
        A kryton is a gas-filled tube used as a high-speed switch. U.S. State Department munitions licenses are needed to export krytons because they can be used as triggers for nuclear weapons. California-based MILCO International Inc. shipped 15 orders totaling 800 krytons through an intermediary to the Israeli Ministry of Defense between 1979 and 1983. MILCO obtained the krytons from EG&G Inc. After the U.S. government rejected several requests for kryton export licenses to Israel, Arnon Milchan’s Heli Trading Company brokered the transactions with MILCO. Milchan is an Israeli movie producer who became successful in Hollywood for such movies as Brazil, JFK, and Pretty Woman.
        The FBI file reveals that after the illicit kryton exports were discovered, a U.S. attorney tried to flip MILCO President Richard Kelly Smyth to implicate Milchan during intense plea bargaining. The gambit failed, and in May 1984 Smyth was indicted on 30 counts of smuggling and making false statements. Smyth and his wife promptly fled to Israel and remained at large until captured in Malaga, Spain, in July 2001 after Richard Smyth applied for Social Security benefits. INTERPOL arrested Smyth and extradited him to the United States, where he pleaded guilty to violating the U.S. Arms Export Control Act. In November 2001, Smyth was sentenced to 40 years in prison and fined $20,000, though he was freed within four years because of his advancing age. . .

        ENTIRE ARTICLE – http://original.antiwar.com/smith-grant/2012/03/21/israels-nuclear-triggers/

  9. The USA should tell the world the result of a DIFFERENT war game. Same Israeli attack on Iran, SINGLE Iranian attack on USA warship — possibly sinking it. And then NO USA RESPONSE. NONE.

    Just like Israeli attack on USN Liberty (1967). Let it happen. Cost of support to Israel. No reason to let matters get even more costly.

    Let Iran and its friends retaliate against Israel and NO USA RESPONSE. NONE.

    STAY OUT. Warn Israel now. Tell the USA public in advance, and tell IRAN in advance.

    1. That would be a good strategy but not doable. A doable one would be hold back until havoc is raised in Israel from Iranian retaliation, maybe a week, and then come in to get the sides to a cease fire and save the administration from AIPAC retaliation.

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