It’s hard to know how much credibility to lend to this report. But I think it’s worth giving it some attention given that Israel and the U.S. seem to discount the response that might come from parties outside Iran to an attack against that country.
The Russian media reports (Hebrew translation) that the country’s defense ministry and military forces are preparing contingency plans for a likely Israeli military attack against Iran, possibly involving the U.S. as well. Russia is reinforcing its armed forces in the southern Caucuses, Black and Caspian Seas and the Mediterranean. Government sources tell reporters that they see evidence of preparations for an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites with the support of the U.S. The strike, when it comes, will be sudden, with profound consequences and the possibility for a regional war ensuing. Russia is preparing military procedures which would minimize any losses it could incur in the event of an Iran attack.
Russia has been preparing such contingency plans for over a year and they are now nearing completion. The Russian military base in Armenia has been upgraded. Other bases in South Ossetia and Abkhazia are also battle-ready. Russian naval forces near the Georgian border can also come to the aid of the Iranians. Russia also has naval squadrons equipped with aircraft that are expected shortly in the Syrian port of Tartous in case there are military threats to Syria.
A Russian military analyst interviewed for the story says that if Iran faces a full-scale assault and appears to be losing, Russia would lend military assistance, at the military-technical level at the very least. The article also notes the possibility that an Iran attack might encourage many other parties like Armenia and Azerbijian to take advantage of the breakdown of order to advance their own territorial ambitions. Any one of these could lead to a much broader conflict in the region.
I’ve already noted the potential parallel between the current tinderbox situation and the events that led to World War I. The above report further reinforces this danger. Those of you who’ve taken summer trips to national parks and seen those signs displaying the level of fire danger will understand when I say that the arrow is pointing to red, the absolute highest level of fire danger. The smallest match could light this baby and burn the whole forest to the ground.
Extremely important information and I thank you for bringing it to our attention.
Best wishes.
Also in the original article: (1) Russian soldiers’ families have been evacuated home from Armenia. (2) The sources in the defence department neither deny nor confirm the participation of the nuclear North Sea fleet.
its about time to get this action underway…and this “tikkun olam” is about a bunch of Neville Chamberlain types who think that appeasement and the “poor women and children” excuse still hold water…
Those poor women and children will serve as human shields. If a country acts irresponsibly by invading others embassies ( thats how all of this really got started…32 years ago ) and threatens to incinerate a people….well, they will get what’s no doubt coming soon.
It isn’t really clear that Russian forces could assist Iran without actually going to war with the United States, which they won’t do until America is much weaker and they have a cause a lot closer to their hearts, such as natural resources in the Arctic Circle and the Norwegian sector of the Barents Sea. (The “Russian” sector of the Barents Sea was mostly acquired by American-supported conquest of Finnish territory in the forties. Roosevelt threatened to declare war on Finland if they took too much of their own territory back from Stalin.)
Iran almost certainly has the means to cause mass casualties on its own account, too.
The amount of VX precursor chemicals that China sold to Iran a couple of years back now (10,000 tons reputedly), would suffice to kill a LOT more people than the sort of nuclear capability currently being guessed at for Iran in the next few years. It’s also better suited to delivery by masses of cheap medium range rockets. Western politicians have nuclear vision and they poorly perceive equal or greater dangers.
We won’t see Russia riding to Iran’s rescue: we will see Iran inflicting mayhem with the WMD it already has, if it is attacked. Then we will see Russia cash in on any easy and cost-free opportunities that present themselves after that.
But Russian troops dying to keep the Ayatollahs in power? Don’t be daft.
Jeffrey, if the Russians are true to their word (and why wouldn’t they be?) then they are letting you and Obama and Netanyahu know that if you guy’s “get this action underway” then the result will not be a clean, surgical, shock-and-awe campaign.
It will be a re-run of the Korean War.
You know, the last time the USA blythly assumed that the Russians and the Chinese would stand on the sidelines watching while the GI’s “finished the job”.
Look up what happened when those GI’s approached the Yalu River.
I do believe that some US military units are still looking for their battle-flags…..