2 thoughts on “Israeli Security Think Tank Simulates Iranian Nuclear Test – Tikun Olam תיקון עולם إصلاح العالم
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  1. Not able to see the Times article or the INSS paper, but from the comments here and elsewhere one would have to say that the unspoken premise of the simulation is that the Israeli/US unequivocal threats that Iran would never be permitted to build a nuke are all bluff.

    I mean on the face of what US/Israel have said over the last few years there are only 2 possible (and mutually exclusive) scenarios moving forward: 1) Iran capitulates, or 2) conflagration. Presumably neither of these are in the INSS model.

    This report and its publicity look like Israel beginning to soften the ground for its own capitulation and its inevitable acceptance of a nuke in its backyard.

  2. I do believe Iran’s official position from day one was that they would achieve a Japanese-style breakout capacity. There is little benefit to doing anything else for Iran, so that alone answers the question of if Iran would ever pursue nuclear weapons. Nuclear retaliation is bogus in the military sense – they don’t even produce the plume clouds of 70 years ago anymore. The real threat would be biological or via a dirty bomb.

    The only security for that is to remove the ideology of the threats, not to use “cold medicine” just to mask the symptoms as they occur. The ideology is driven by the fact that we’re in their backyard and have spent decades complementing centuries of British imperialism that has kept Iran in the dark while powers looted its oil.

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