Today, brings the unwelcome news that Tzipi Livni has failed in her negotiations to form a new Israeli government. She was foiled by religious parties which originally made onerous demands that she support their constituencies with financial handouts. Finally they simply refused to join, believing they have the prospect of a better deal after new elections, for which the Likud’s Bibi Netanyahu is leading in the polls.
The news is unwelcome because it completely undoes the negotiations engaged in by Ehud Olmert with the Palestinians and Syrians toward respective peace deals. Personally, I felt Livini was a respectable moderate candidate who had the prospect of continuing and even advancing the peace process. There seems little likelihood of that now unless she can miraculously beat Netanyahu in the coming elections.
If Netanyahu wins, there is absolutely no chance for peace. In fact, I’d expect a heightening chance of outright war either with the Palestinians or Iranians or both (not to mention the Syrians and Hezbollah). There seems little doubt that Netanyahu would bomb Iran and he certainly has no interest in negotiating any agreement that any credible Palestinian leader would sign. Likewise, the chance that he will continue negotiating with Syria are nil. So we’re in for a long, cold winter in the Middle East if Bibi triumphs.
Another reason I find this dispiriting news is that I expected Obama had an excellent shot at corralling a peace deal among Israel, the Palestinians, the Syrians and Lebanese. With Netanyahu, that simply is impossible.
I wonder what kind of campaign she will run. I’d like to see her run as Sharon’s heir: a former rightist with impeccable nationalist credentials who’s turned toward pragmatism not out of any love for the Palestinians (I’m talking about her strategy, not my own beliefs), but out of love for her country and her passion to see its future guaranteed. She could run as the candidate who embraces the peace process. She could point out that Netanyahu will be the candidate of blood, death and endless sacrifice; how long must out boys die in places like southern Lebanon and for what? She could claim that if he wins terrorism will escalate (which it certainly will). That way, if she did win, the right would have no chance to claim she had no mandate to negotiate an end to the conflict involving territorial compromise.
peace in the middleast is a joke
hezballah, hamas, al quada, iran, syria, none of these what peace ONLY ISRAEL IN PIECES.
THE NEXT P.O.T.U.S. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH IRAN AND A NUKE BOMB. ONLY A FOOL THINKS THAT WILL BRING PEACE.
DEFEAT ISN’T PEACE
“how long must out boys die in places like southern Lebanon and for what?”
When you say “and for what?” don’t you understand that many Israelis consider the Land of Israel sacred-that the Rambam says it is forbidden to give the Land Of Israel over to non-Jews? Maybe it’s easy for someone like you in hutz l-aretz to make comfortable comments rather than being here! Armchair Zionist?
Richard, I can’t believe someone who has been commenting on Israel and following its news for so long has such little understanding of Israel’s political system.
You stated:
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If Netanyahu wins, there is absolutely no chance for peace. In fact, I’d expect a heightening chance of outright war either with the Palestinians or Iranians or both (not to mention the Syrians and Hezbollah). There seems little doubt that Netanyahu would bomb Iran and he certainly has no interest in negotiating any agreement that any credible Palestinian leader would sign. Likewise, the chance that he will continue negotiating with Syria are nil. So we’re in for a long, cold winter in the Middle East if Bibi triumphs.
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There is no basis whatsoever for these speculations of yours. Netanyahu was Prime Minister from 1996-1999. This was the QUIETEST PERIOD Israel has had since Oslo was signed in 1993. Netanyahu negotiated and carried out two withdrawals based on the Oslo Agreements during his term. He handed over Hevron, the second holiest city to the Jewish people, in spite of warnings that it would bring terrorist attacks, which indeed happened.
Netanyahu supported for and voted for the destruction of Gush Katif (Yes, he did resign from the cabinet a couple of days before it was implemented so he could say to both sides in the matter that he was with them).
No government headed by the Left ever dismantled a single settlement. Only governments headed by the “right-wing” Likud ever did that.
Netanyahu has already promised that he will form a coalition with the Left, and such a coalition would have an easier time giving up settlements because Netanyahu would tell the Right “you have to support me because otherwise the Left will come to power” (just like Animal Farm’s “surely you don’t want Jones back!”). He has no option of forming a “right-wing” gov’t because the media, state prosecutors office, police and other instruments of coercion in the state would make life hell for him and his gov’t, just as they did for Olmert.
It is for these reasons, that I, as a “right-winger” will not vote in the next election. For us, the least bad gov’t is a weak, discredited Leftist gov’t like Israel has now. I hoped that Feigele Weiss (AKA Tzippi Livni) would form a gov’t because it would be too weak to give up any settlements, just like Olmert hasn’t. Remember all the “illegal outposts” that Olmert has repeatedly promised to destroy?…well, he hasn’t dared touch them. Only the Likud could do that. That’s why I don’t want them in power.
If there is no peace agreement , it is because the Arabs don’t want one. Like so many “progressives” you seem to believe that a peace agreement is achievable, if only Israel would make enough concessions, but this is not the case. Even your fellow “progressive” Yossi Alpher wrote this a few days ago…he says it is a myth that “everyone knows what the final agreement would look like”…he stated that no agreement has been reached on anything. Olmert, who has also offered the Palestinians the “Clinton Parameters” has admitted that no agreements have been reached, even on “easy matters” not involving the Temple Mount, Old City of Jerusalem and other “difficult matters”.
@Devil’s Advocate: I didn’t know that southern Lebanon was the Land of Israel. And it all depends on how you define what IS the Land of Israel, doesn’t it. Besides, unlike you I don’t allow Biblical religion to determine how I live my Jewish life. I am the cumulative result of all Jewish life from the beginning to the current day. I am not a Biblical literalist fundamentalist as you are.
@bar_kochba132: I said a NEW Netanyahu prime ministership would be filled with terrorism. I made no comment on any past governments he might’ve led. I’m interested in the future & not the past. There is absolutely no question in my mind that there will be no cease fires with Hamas or any other Palestinian militant group under Netanyahu. There will be nothing but bloodshed & suffering for both peoples.
You may not like my power of prediction but wasn’t it you who predicted a McCain win in the presidential election? I guess my powers of prediction are superior to yours unless you think HaShem is going to intercede on McCain’s behalf before Nov. 4th.
First of all, Labor is NOT the left. Please don’t make the foolish mistake of calling it that. Yr calling Labor the left only indicates how right wing yr own views are. Second, there is absolutely no indication that Ehud Barak would be willing to form a coalition with Likud. If he did it would only further smash that nail in the coffin of Labor as a serious political entity. Third, Netanyahu will NEVER return a single settlement to anyone. Yr notion that he will if you sincerely believe it is based on delusion & fantasy, which doesn’t surprise me one bit.
I hope that Livini wins the next election & proves you, once again, wrong as you were in yr prediction that Obama would lose. Livni will surprise you & all rightists who attempt to dismiss & discredit her.
If there is no peace agreement it is because no Israeli government has the spine to negotiate one. It is not the Palestinians who stand in the way of an agreement. Concessions must be made not only by Israel, but by the Palestinians as well.
Everyone DOES know what a final agreement will look like. You seem to be confusing whether Israelis know what a final agreement will look like with the concept that a final settlement has been reached. Of course, this has not happened. But other than you, Israeli rightists & Palestinian rejectionists, everyone else knows what that final settlement will look like when it is negotiated.
And Yossi Alpher is not a progressive. He is, at best, a centrist. I have never read of a Mossad agent who was a progressive & neither is Alpher.
Richard-when you say “I don’t allow Biblical religion to determine how I live my Jewish life.” Why not? Are you saying that you are assimilated?
“I am the cumulative result of all Jewish life from the beginning to the current day.”
What about the idolatry, turning in of other Jews, sins of the Kings of Israel, and other transgressions-do you embrace those as well? Do you just accept EVERYTHING?
“I am not a Biblical literalist fundamentalist as you are.”
I am not a Karaite! Only they read the Torah literally-I am just a regular Orthodox Jew.
Richard: bar_kochba132 was correct when he suggested that you do not understand the politics in Israel 100%:
“Labor is NOT the left.”
Labor is the umbrella for the Israeli left-Meretz, Meimad, ect. That is point blank wrong.
“It is not the Palestinians who stand in the way of an agreement. Concessions must be made not only by Israel, but by the Palestinians as well.”
These statements are contradictions. The Palestinians WILL NOT compromise on J-m or right of return. That cause them to stand in the way just as much as Israel does.
“Everyone DOES know what a final agreement will look like.”
Huh? No we don’t. There are a lot bones for contention, I guarantee. That is for sure not true..things have only been discussed.
@Devil’s Advocate: That’s the problem with Jews like you–your identity is black or white. You’re either a literalist fundamentalist believer in Biblical religion or “assimilated.” Go back & read the hundreds of posts I’ve written here about Judaism in general and my own Jewish identity & you’ll have your answer. I don’t answer insulting questions like that anyway.
You apparently don’t read very well. I said I did NOT accept a literalist view of Biblical religion. So why would you ask me specifically whether I accepted Biblical religion?
Touche, buddy. You know what I mean & you know I was talking about being a Karaite. You are a slavish adherent of a literalist-fundamentalist view of Jewish identity.
@Devil’s Advocate:
Now, isn’t that a laugh. A right-wing Orthodox Jewish Israeli tells me I don’t understand Israeli politics. Couldn’t it just be possible that because I don’t share YOUR view of Israeli politics that you claim I don’t understand Israeli politics??? Of course it can be possible because that is the sole reason for your empty claim.
No, I’m afraid it is YOU who is point blank wrong. If Labor is the “umbrella” for the Israeli left” including Meretz then that would mean that Meretz sits in the current government alongside Meretz, right? Wrong. Meretz has nothing whatsoever to do with Labor and hasn’t in ages. Labor is simply not a left party. As I said in an earlier comment, only those with right-wing views claims Labor is a left party.
It’s always instructive to hear from Israeli rightists who seem to believe that they somehow channel the true beliefs of Palestinians. Actually, most Palestinians, according to reliable public opinion polls ARE willing to compromise on these issues as long as there is a reasonable prospect that such compromise will lead to a real peace agreement.
Everyone but rightists like you knows that the final settlement will be close to the pre 67 borders w. some minor adjustments to incorporate major settlement blocs.
“it can be possible because that is the sole reason for your empty claim.”
Nope-Meretz and the other small groups don’t have enough seats to make a majority-they really on parties like Labor or Kadima. For example-Yossi Beilin was in Labor from 1977-2003 until he went to Meretz with Yael Dayan. Both were former Labor-nikim. This goes to show you that the Left in Israel does in fact center around Labor-Labor was historically the focus of the Israeli Left.
FROM “THE INDEPENDENT” (U.K.):
Claiming Kadima had “proven it does what is right”, Ms Livni must now do battle with Mr Netanyahu, who brought the Oslo peace process to a near-halt as prime minister from 1996 to 1999. He has not softened his views since then. They are level in the personal popularity stakes but the right-wing bloc Mr Netanyahu heads is leading in the polls.
ENTORE ARTICLE- http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/chance-for-netanyahu-as-livni-talks-collapse-974417.html
FROM REUTERS:
But diplomats and analysts said the election could have implications far beyond Bush’s term, citing opinion polls showing a big lead for the right-wing opposition Likud party of former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had criticised many of the peace proposals that Livni and outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert have made with U.S. encouragement.
“We’re deeply worried,” said one senior Western diplomat in Jerusalem, speaking anonymously because he did not want to be seen interfering in Israeli politics. “This may spell the end of the diplomatic process, and not just in the near term.”
ENTIRE ARTICLE-
http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=432009
@Devil’s Advocate:
Wrong again. Meretz has never been in a coalition with Kadima. It has been in a coalition with Labor, but hasn’t been in quite some time. Meretz is not allied with Labor & totally independent of it. Meretz MKs broke away from Labor & there’s a reason they did so–because Labor was no longer a progressive party.
All you do is show yr ignorance & prejudices I’m afraid.