Gershon Baskin, co-CEO of the Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information and a long-time expert on Palestinian affairs writes in the Jerusalem Post that the prevailing view among Palestinian, and even among Israeli analysts he speaks with is that Hamas will likely moderate its views regarding Israel:
Almost all of my Palestinian colleagues tell me that Hamas will change. They say that once Hamas has the burden of governing they will have to become more pragmatic. They speak of the process of change that they themselves went through.
And further, because of its former rejectionist positions that Hamas may be the only Palestinian party that can secure a real peace with Israel:
Facing the reality that Hamas is now in power in Palestine, it is important to accelerate their transformation from a radical pariah into a potential interlocutor. The Likud used to always claim that “only the Likud can do it” because the Likud represented the most hard-line positions and because it had no real opposition to their right. In the same way perhaps “only the Hamas can do it” and perhaps it is in the interest of Israel to sit across the table from Hamas leaders.
Baskin notes his conversation with a former PA minister confirms his conviction that Hamas will have to recognize Israel, if not immediately and explicitly, then certainly tacitly. And that such everyday interactions will lead to finding a path to peace:
A close Palestinian friend who was a PA minister and who spent 15 years in Israeli prisons before the first intifada knows all of the Hamas leaders personally. He met them all when he was in prison. He lives in Gaza and still has the opportunity to speak with them on a regular basis. He is 100% convinced that once they assume power Hamas will discover that they will have to deal with Israel.
Every single Palestinian ministry and minister has to deal with Israel. Palestinians are simply too dependent not to deal with the Israeli government and army.
Reality is simply much stronger than slogans – for both sides. I, too, think that the two sides will have to deal with each other; they simply will not have a choice.
It may take time for the Hamas to meet Israeli conditions for negotiations. Hamas will never recognize Israel as a Jewish state – I cannot say Fatah ever recognized Israel as a Jewish state. Fatah did recognize Israel as a state that is here to stay without recognizing the legitimacy of the state as the nation-state of the Jewish people.
I think that Hamas will be pressured by the Arab world to support the Arab League peace initiative which calls for Israel to withdraw to the 1967 lines, in return for which Israel will be recognized by the entire Arab world, who would sign peace treaties with Israel.
Baskin presents what he calls “the optimistic assessment” of what could happen to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on Hamas’ ‘watch:’
Most analysts – Israelis and Palestinians – say that Hamas is interested in entering into a long-term hudna…According to Israeli security experts, over the past year, with one exception, Hamas has kept to the tahadieh – the calm, and has not engaged in terrorism.
The optimistic assessment is that Hamas will enter into a long-term hudna (the Israeli condition of ending terrorism fulfilled), Hamas will support the Arab League peace initiative (granting conditional recognition to Israel), and the Hamas government will deal with Israel on a daily basis (basically working according to the Oslo agreements). Formally, Hamas will not fulfill the Israeli conditions, pragmatically they will.
If those conditions are realized, then the question becomes how does Israel respond? Actually, I feel convinced that Israel will not respond positively. Then the question becomes what do the U.S., the Quartet and the EU do to move Israel off the dime.
According to this man, Fatah didn’t recognize Israel…
Where’s John R. to disabuse him of this crazy notion?
The Middle:
You’re not reading carefully. Baskin says Fatah did not recognize Israel as a JEWISH state, but that it did recognize it as a state:
Oh, but I was reading carefully. There is no difference between accepting Israel as a state with the caveat that it not be a Jewish state and simply rejecting it.
Then you betray yourself as a mere propagandist with no interest in really reaching a resolution of the conflict (except on your own purely ideological grounds).
And as John R. has told you, no less an authority than the Israeli government itself (both Likud and Labor) has found the Fatah-led PA’s recognition of Israel as a state, but not a Jewish state, to be acceptable. So who are you to substitute your own ultra-pure ideological proclivities for those of the State of Israel? It’s the ultimate in chutzpah!
You claim you support a 2 state solution yet you reject the former PA’s level of recognition of Israel. In that case, you can hardly say you accept a 2 state solution since no Palestinian party or government is ever going to sing Hatikvah (as Tom Friedman so aptly said) and happily (or even unhappily) embrace a Jewish state.
This might happen after a long period of time in which both nations live in peace with each other & learn to trust ea. other. But it ain’t gonna happen anytime soon. And the fact that it won’t will have absolutely no deleterious effect on both people’s desire (should there be any) or ability to make peace w. ea. other. Not unless, that is, a purely ideological Israeli government adopts your perspective. Then of course there will never be peace.
I’m sorry, how am I a “propagandist” when I absolutely refuse to let somebody else dictate to the Jews that they have no right to self determination?
Is that what Israel accepted? That the Palestinians can accept Israel as a state but not as a Jewish state? Can you find this source because I don’t believe any politician to the Right of Hadash believes this in Israel. To the Israelis, recognition of Israel is a de facto recognition of the state as the state outlined in the Declaration of Independence.
http://www.yale.edu/lawweb/avalon/mideast/israel.htm
Since the Declaration of Independence in the basis of the legality of the state and its Basic Laws, can an Israeli government even abrogate that clause where it states that Israel is a Jewish state? If not, then how can they accept “recognition” that doesn’t?
Of course, your suggestion that this is what they’ve accepted is preposterous. To the Israelis, there is no question that this is what is meant by recognition of Israel as a Jewish state. Even Arafat knew this:
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http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=440479&contrassID=1&subContrassID=1&sbSubContrassID=0&listSrc=Y
“First of all, we are not forbidden, and you are not refusing any Palestinians, displaced or refugees, to come to the Palestinian territories; you are not, there is no problem. And as I mentioned there is a committee of the four countries to follow up the displaced refugees. But I was speaking about this tragedy of our Palestinians who are living in Lebanon, and had been accepted by Barak and by President Clinton that we have to find a solution for them.”
But the solution has to be agreed upon also by Israel.
“Barak said we have to find a solution for them with the Israelis, with the Americans and with us.”
And you accept a formula, a solution that will say – this is not going to change the character of Israel …
“We had in `88 in our PNC, it is clear and obvious, we had agreed upon [UN Resolutions] 242 and 338 … and definitely we are speaking also about a part of our people, our refugees … Why the Muslim from Russia has a right to return and the Muslim from Palestine has not the right to return? And why the Christian from Russia has the right to come and the Palestinian Christian has not the right to come?”
You understand that Israel has to keep being a Jewish state?
“Definitely.”
Definitely.
“Definitely, I told them we had accepted openly and officially in `88 in our PNC …”
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Now of course, as you read that interview, he comes off as a smarmy liar, but why would Arafat bother to address the issue of maintaining the character of Israel as a Jewish state and telling us this is what the PNC decided in 1988 if John R or you are right?
Face it, you are not right.
If that means I don’t believe in a two state solution, then perhaps you are right. I don’t believe there should be a Palestinian state and another Palestinian state called Israel next to it. I believe there should be a Palestinian state and next to it a state for the Jews. Since when have Jews in Israel given up their right to self-determination?
Oh, and by the way, as John R has told you, while the Palestinians claim to have accepted Israel and have even sent letters to the Americans claiming they have removed the clauses in their charter that call for Israel’s destruction or go against what Oslo requires, ultimately the PNC never met to vote on these clauses. In fact, what John R is claiming is that even Netanyahu’s government was forced to accept these letter to the US. Well, yeah, they did because they were cornered. But then the PNC never met to actually vote on the supposed retractions. While John R likens this to some sort of administrative hiccup, I’m afraid I see it as something else…and they started a war in 2000 that proves I’m right.
Let me count the ways: you always attribute the purest motives to Israel, you always attribute the basest motives to the Palestinians, you mischaracterize events and arguments to bolster your own ideology, you hardly ever condition your own arguments or acknowledge any weakness in them (and Israel’s). Yup, you’re a propagandist all right.
And that crack about Jewish self determination reeks of more propaganda. Jews HAVE self-determination. They have a homeland. Palestinians may not accept Israel as a Jewish state but that interferes in no way with Jews’ ability to have one. All that you or anyone needs from the Palestinians is their acceptance that Israel exists AS A STATE (not a Jewish state). All you need from them is a cessation of violence. The fact that you insist they also sing Hatikvah only shows your own bad faith.
Why, yes, in fact it is. The governments of Israel accepted the PLO’s recognition of Israel. The latter didn’t ask to see the PLO’s Zionist credentials in doing so & required no Hatikvahs. Why do you? Pols & parties can posture all they want (& they do) whining about “the Palestinians did this” or “they didn’t do that.” But Israeli governments have accepted this notion and that’s good enough for me.
As Reagan once said: “There he goes again.” Dredging up dusty old documents that have absolutely no bearing on present circumstances. Besides, the Declaration of Independence is not a constitutional or legal document. It is an expression of wishes & general principles. No Israeli uses this document to determine whether or not Palestinians have sufficiently recognized Israel. Only you, poor soul, do that.
If we want to argue about the Declaration we can examine it in its entirety to see how Israel has measured up to realizing its aspirations (not very well in some important regards, I’m afraid).
You’re overstating your case once again. How often does our Supreme Court use our Declaration of Independence as a basis for legal precedent. Probably never because as I said it is not a constitutional document. Besides, I’m not going to get bogged down in a discussion of this because it is totally irrelevant to the present situation.
Your argument only gets loonier & loonier. Who said that because Palestinians do not accept all of our claims about our State that this means that WE TOO must cease believing in them? You are ludicrous.
When you quote an external source pls. provide some background on whom your quoting & from what context. I don’t like having to sift through the entire passage to surmise who’s speaking, what they’re saying and why. It make for too much work & you should be doing that work yourself if you want to introduce the passage.
As for the substance, I make no claims to argue for, or believe anything Arafat said. I don’t know if he was lying when he accepted the Jewish nature of Israel. He was a notorious liar. I don’t think anything Arafat ever did or said has any substantial bearing on today’s dilemma. It’s up to Israelis & Palestinians to solve this thing. And they don’t need Arafat or anything he did or said to do that.
I hate the smarmy know-it-allness of such comments. If you want to hear my responses to your questions you’d do better by ditching the mini-taunts.
More lies & distortions. Most Palestinians want peace & security for themselves & their families in their own land. While some of the more ideologically motivated may make pronouncements about what the nature of the State of Israel should be, I have absolutely no doubt that if their own lives within Palestine were safe, secure & prosperous they were care very little about the nature of the State of Israel.
Y-A-W-N! Irrelevant, boring, I don’t care. If you want an argument with me on dull, meaningless antediluvian documents you’ll have to trying goading someone else.
Wow, I’m a goading propagandist who should dismiss what Arafat said, the Declaration of Independence, the meaning of peace, the meaning of a Jewish state, the meaning of acceptance of Israel, etc., etc., etc.
Okay, good, you are right. We should just ignore everything including history, documents, agreements, language of agreements, the word of the Palestinian leadership. Oh wait, I know, why don’t we also ignore the terrorism of Hamas, as you are wont to do in these discussions. If we ignore everything and just let the Palestinians become prosperous on pre-1967 lines, Israel will finally enjoy peace. Hallelujah.
I’m convinced. I guess there’s nothing left to talk about since the solution is so simple and has been staring us in the face all along. Uh, except for that part before 1967, but we’ll ignore that lest your eyes glaze over and you YAWN again.
I finally got you to see things my way! Peace should be at hand any second now.