MaanNews reports that a recent Palestinian poll by Gaza’s Al Mustakbal Research Center reveals a divided, but flexible Palestinian polity. I am assuming that since this is a Gaza based institution that its poll numbers might reflect somewhat of a pro-Hamas “tilt” in the results:
Those who agree to holding negotiations with Israel after Hamas forms the government, 46.5 percent answered yes, 44.3 percent said no, 8.6 do not know, and .06 did not answer.
Among those who agreed to lengthy “cease-fire” after the formation of the government, 62.5 agreed, 30.2 disagreed, 6.5 did not know, and .08 declined to answer.
Regarding the armed resistance against Israeli attacks by launching projectiles, 48.1 agree with such a tactic, 40.3 say no to it, 1.2 do not know, and .04 did not answer the question.
Among those polled, 65.5 percent showed their support for a national unity government, 26 supported a Hamas government, 7.5 percent supported a different party government, and one percent declined to answer.
A plurality favors negotiations with Israel while majorities support indefinite continuation of the hudna and a national unity government. While the poll did not show a plurality supporting cessation of Qassam rocket attacks there was only 8% separating the two positions.
The most disappointing figure is that only 22% believe that Hamas should recognize Israel:
Among those who support Hamas for not recognizing Israel regardless of the international ramifications in foreign aid, 70.1 agree with Hamas, 21.9 said Hamas should recognize Israel, 7.1 do not know, and .06 did not answer.
However, I note that the question was phrased in such a way that a respondent might feel that he was being asked whether Hamas should “capitulate” to foreign pressure in order to ameliorate the approaching international embargo building against the Palestinians. When you phrase the question in this way, it seems self-evident that Palestinians would reject such a possibility.
To put this in perspective, the Daily Star reports that a current An-Najah University poll reveals that a majority of respondents favored Hamas recognizing Israel if it withdrew to the Green Line:
Just over half of respondents – 54.7 percent – backed recognition of the Jewish state by Hamas but only if Israel first agreed to withdraw from all the territories it occupied in 1967…
And to show you how malleable poll numbers can be depending on how you phrase a question, Miftah reports a February 28th poll in which a majority support Hamas recognition of Israel (no preconditions are mentioned). Here is how the pollster asked the question:
I am going to read to you a series of policies and duties, which Hamas could follow. I would like you to tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with each of them.
50.8% either strongly or somewhat agreed that the group should recognize Israel. Further, 70% favor Hamas negotiations with Israel and 80% favor continuing the hudna–numbers that are far higher than the Gaza-based poll.
