Israel, the Lobby and the Midterms

Reams of copy and scores of TV commentators have expended hundred of thousands of words on the midterms. Rightfully so. It was an extraordinary, stunning night for Democrats.

They almost didn’t deserve it, since they were running against a Party that was self immolating. The Democratic leadership certainly offered no compelling reason to vote for their candidates. But they’ll take the win.

There was one subject dealt with glancingly, if at all: Israel. On the one hand, this is understandable because it is very low on the list of priorities of American voters. Even Jews rank it 9th out of 20 issues.  Only 9% view Israel as one of their top two priority issues.

But on the other hand, the Lobby and it’s constellation of organizations along with their white, aging billionaire donor class, make it their business to keep Israel at the top of the Congressional agenda. With their ample supply of cash, which they shower on pliant legislators, they maintain a tight control on legislation. That includes advancing bills to keep Israel supplied with billions in genocide-producing weapons; and UN Security Council vetoes of resolutions against Israeli interests.

The Lobby uses campaign cash as one key element to promote its agenda. It hand picks pro-Israel candidates to primary progressive Democratic candidates who wander off the “reservation.” But one of its most controversial and least understood modes is the anti Semitism canard. It has become a substitute for the word Zionism, since it has become such a contentious and ill-favored issue. Fighting Anti Semitism is almost as American as apple pie. Everyone opposes it. But few know what it really means. That vagueness has allowed the Lobby to manipulate the term, expanding it to include an issue it was never meant to include.

Criticizing Israel–especially anti Zionists and those opposing its legislative interests–has become the New Anti Semitism: Abdul El Sayed, Zohran Mamdani, Thomas Massie, even Bernie Sanders. All have endured a vicious flood of such spurious claims. It worked in the past. Candidates like Donna Edwards, Andy Levin, Corey Bush and Jamal Bowman were defeated by Aipac-approved candidates who were showered with tens of millions. The attack ads never mentioned Israel, since the Lobby knew voters didn’t factor Israel into their primary vote.  So they targeted local and domestic issues.  It worked then. But it failed this time.

Partly it was the doing of Israel itself. Genocide really riles up the American voter. Especially when it’s committed with taxpayer-funded US weapons.  Israel has become the bete noir of American politics. The issue everyone agrees with (except the Lobby and its supporters). The irony is that if it kept a lower profile, if it wasn’t as aggressive in pursuing its agenda, it would stay below the radar.  But it has chosen to be the bully of American politics.  American’s generally do not like bullies.

Israel has become a hard sell. The Lobby too has become anathema. Candidates, except the desperate ones like Mike Rogers, are running away from Aipac cash as fast as their feet will carry them. In a vain attempt to conceal their meddling in the electoral process, they’ve shut down their own Super PAC. They think the American voter will see that favorably, as a genuine attempt to respond to criticism. But it’s a sham. It still has two Super PACs which will be vehicles for Aipac’s interventions. Additionally, Aipac has decided on a sly approach of creating astro-turf groups with innocuous names to serve as conduits for it cash.  Though this worked on first attempt in an Oregon Congressional race, it has failed in most subsequent cases, including in Illinois.

El-Sayed and the Lobby

Nowhere was this more glaringly evident than in El Sayed’s Michigan Senate race. He endured an onslaught of fabricated or distorted Islamophobic charges, including that he belonged to the Muslim Brotherhood, that he was a jihadist, that imams at  mosques at which he spoke advocated destroying Israel, and that he was a pal of Hasan Piker. He was targeted, primarily because he was Muslim. Aipac has a history of attacking Muslim candidates. Second, because el Sayed had the temerity to call himself “anti-Israel,” denounced Israeli genocide and favored cutting aid to Israel.

The result? $350-million (some reports say $400-million) in attack ads flooding the airwaves.  Embarrassing stories planted with a willing media (remember “Tommy?”), eager to smell blood in the water. None of it worked. El Sayed was a savvy politician running an extraordinary campaign. He was bullet proof. Nothing stuck because there was nothing there.

Another key part of the Lobby election strategy was mobilizing the Jewish community against El Sayed. It packaged the anti Semitism issue like a set of Lobby talking points. It recruited rabbis and community leaders to accuse the Muslim candidate of anti Semitism, wanting to destroy the “Jewish state,” and making them (local Jews) “unsafe.” It succeeded to an extent. Claims by these figures were amplified in the media despite their not resonating within the community itself. Ultimately Jews voted just like other Michigan Democrats for El Sayed. Though the 60% who voted for him was slighly less than the normal Jewish vote for Democrats of 65-75%. However, if you consider the drumbeat of Lobby attacks, it is almost miraculous El Sayed held on to Jews.

Yesterday’s extraordinary election result will embolden the Party’s progressive wing. Even Trump has conceded this with a remarkable turnaround, announcing the US will end $4-billion in military aid by the end of the year.  His statement offered a stunning acknowledgement that El-Sayed’s victory was the handwriting on the wall, regarding evaporating Congressional support for Israel:

“They don’t need it,” Mr. Trump said of the American aid, “and because why should we suffer the slings from lunatics like an El-Sayed when they don’t need it?” he said, a reference to Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate for an open Senate seat in Michigan, who has been among the most openly critical of Israel.

“It’s a bad talking point,” Mr. Trump said.

There is little time for celebration, as Israel is free to pay itself for the US weapons it seeks. Also, there remains a controversial Congressional bill to integrate US and Israeli military research and development, along with intelligence assets.

Further, Vice President Vance offered a post-mortem and declared that “changing our relationship to Israel” was one of four key issues the GOP needed to reevaluate. Considering he will be running for president in 2028, this is an indicator of major shifts in the political winds.

You will see scores more DSA (Democratic Socialists of America) candidates, including those calling for cutting off aid to Israel, sanctioning Israeli leaders and Israeli settlements.  Until now, it was unheard of for Democratic presidential candidates to utter a cross word about Israel.  Nothing was too good for it and its Lobby stalwarts.  No doubt at least one, perhaps more such hopefuls will be prepared to cross that line.  And no matter how many guns its supporters bring to the gunfight, they will be outgunned.

Over the past 50 years, the US has enjoyed a romance with Israel. Politicians fell all over themselves to do the Lobby’s bidding.  With the midterm result, an entire new class of Democrats will enter stage right. Though some will continue to be beholden to their pro-Israel masters. Many others will be prepared to buck the system.  As a result, Israel will find it increasingly difficult to manipulate the US electoral system.  It will find its interests no longer resonate as they once did.  Americans are just as disgusted as the rest of the world by Israeli genocide.  They’ve had enough.  All those who support Israel will find themselves increasingly isolated and irrelevant politically.

Far from a day of sackcloth and ashes as it was for pro-Israel Jews, yesterday was a day of reckoning. A day that may issue a new era US-Israel relations. When Israel will cease being a sacred cow and become one nation among many, competing for US support with other states–but with no built-in advantage.  Israel, a nation like all other nations. No better and no worse. A nation US politicians are equally free to criticize or praise without fear.

When that time comes, anti-Semitism will no longer be a cudgel with which to beat the Lobby’s designated enemies. Lobby groups like Aipac and the ADL will no longer make politicians shudder; when Israel’s critics can say the word “genocide” without being smeared as anti-Semites; when they can speak the truth without paying the price.