The Slow, Painful Death of Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan

The Trump peace plan is suffering a slow, painful death engineered by Bibi Netanyahu.  There are a number of problematic issues inherent in the plan itself.  Netanyahu is exploiting them to the hilt in order to kill the deal–historically his MO regarding anything he views as against his interest:

Israeli assessments increasingly show the International Stabilization Force for Gaza, designed to disarm Hamas, won’t materialize.

Others of its provisions cross red lines the Israeli leader has expressed: creation of a Palestinian state; calls for Israeli withdrawal from Gaza; a future governance role for the Palestinian Authority: and full access for humanitarian aid and reconstruction. The Israeli leader has explicitly rejected every one of these provisions either through public statements or via implemented policy.

Regarding aid, in the days after Trump pressured Netanyahu to agree to the ceasefire, he also told him to resume the free flow of food aid. Israel did so.  But as the pressure dissipated,so did Israel’s willingness to adhere to this provisions of the peace deal. Today, only one-third (200) of the normal number of aid trucks are permitted entry:

Ismail Al-Thawabteh, who heads Gaza’s Government Media Office, [said] that Israel allows only “less than one-third” of the aid supplies needed for Gaza’s 2.4 million population.  “Israel is managing hunger in Gaza deliberately, slowly, and cumulatively,” he said, warning that malnutrition levels among Gaza’s population have exceeded 90%….

Thawabteh said Israel continues to ban the entry of heavy machinery and equipment “needed by civil defense teams to recover the bodies of martyrs from under the rubble, in a flagrant violation of all humanitarian laws.”

Whatever his sins and crimes (and they are many), he is a master of manipulation. He waits out his interlocutor.  He chips away at agreements until they are bare bones of the original.  He even twists his claims so that they appear to agree with his opposite party.  His goal is not to convince you of his argument, but to confuse the issue so that you lose sight of the original proposal, thereby reducing pressure on him to agree to it.  He once told a settler family: I can wrap America around my little finger.  That, in a nutshell is his modus operandi.

Here he invokes Trump to support his goal of renewing the war:

Netanyahu [claimed] a fundamental agreement exists between him and President Donald Trump’s representatives: if no alternative actor emerges to eliminate Hamas, and if the organization refuses voluntary disarmament, Israel assumes the mission. Both Netanyahu and IDF [officers] hear explicit American commitments to Gaza demilitarization, as Trump’s plan stipulates.

That is true on its surface. But it conveniently omits the commitments Israel must make in conjunction with those imposed on the Palestinian side.  Essentially, he is saying that Hamas must disarm and we’ll see about the rest.  That’s definitely not what the plan calls for, or Hamas agreed to.

The disarmament issue is a red herring. In two years of fighting the IDF has not been able to vanquish Hamas.  How will it disarm them now?  What will it do differently to achieve what it couldn’t till now?  What further havoc can it wreak that will succeed, where everything else it has tried, failed?

I believe Netanyahu knows this.  He doesn’t care about disarming Hamas. His goal is to resume the fighting out of pure political interest. He needs to save his own skin. The best way to do it is to continue the war.  It’s a cynical ploy. But considering the cynicism that underpins everything Israel has done since 10/7, it’s not surprising at all.

Netanyahu offers a threat, again claiming the US is in agreement:

Netanyahu added, “it’s clear from all contacts [i.e. with the Americans] that if there’s no external force, we’re demilitarizing.” Netanyahu also disclosed he demanded Americans postpone Gaza rehabilitation until demilitarization implementation. “I told the Americans that they must ensure demilitarization on the ground of Hamas, before any rehabilitation…The Americans agree that there won’t be rehabilitation in the green side (held by the IDF) as long as there’s no rehabilitation in the red side (held by Hamas).”

Trump did say that if Hamas reneged, Israel could resume fighting.  But he did not say that it could do so if no country offers troops to disarm Hamas on Israel’s behalf.  That is pure Bibi. Stake a claim and pretend everyone agrees with you, when they don’t.

Here Israel Hayom pulls a journalistic “fast-one” by quoting anonymous “US sources” saying something Israel wants them to say, without offering any proof that they did so:

…According to sources close to the White House, this principle is accepted by Jared Kushner and he currently doesn’t expect Gaza rehabilitation to begin before the military threat posed by Hamas is removed.

To further buttress the Israeli stance, Shabak purportedly advances a tired old claim that Israel must restrict reconstruction materials from entering because Hamas exploits them for military uses:

The intelligence assessment stressed the organization exploits dual-use materials entering Gaza through international supply channels to rearm.

It’s a convenient way to stymie any effort to rebuild infrastructure or housing.  Israel wants a Gaza in permanent shambles. This is one convenient way to do this. It’s why it throttles aid shipments, as noted above.

The IDF chief of staff (again according to an anonymous source) hammered another nail in the coffin. Not only would Israel forcibly disarm Hamas, but it would not withdraw from Gaza, an explicit provision of the plan:

Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir detailed…which points in the Gaza Strip the IDF must not withdraw from under any circumstances. According to [him] even if the unexpected occurs and Hamas lays down its weapons, the IDF must show presence in the area.

This is a call for permanent Israeli occupation. Zamir doesn’t even cloak it in a claim of Hamas refusal of reciprocity. He comes right out and says it.

The ISF’s Impending Collapse

Trump’s vaunted peace plan calls for the formation of an International Stabilization Force consisting of troops from multiple Arab countries.  There is confusion about what their role was to be.  To hear Netanyahu tell it, they were to disarm Hamas in order to proceed to the next phase of determining governance of the enclave.

Hamas has an entirely different interpretation: that it would only disarm once the Israeli army withdrew from Gaza. At which point it would disarm and hand over control to the international force and an administration of Palestinian technocrats.

Between these two irreconcilable differences, the ISF has become mired in confusion.  Various states have expressed willingness to participate in the Force.  However, most have offered aid to support it, but not troops.  Only one country, Indonesia, has pledged military forces.  But they it has not been heard since that initial statement.  None of the key Gulf states have done so, except UAE, which only pledged logistical and financial support. Azerbaijan, an Israeli ally which has purchased billions of its weapons, is the latest to beg off.

It seems no one wants to touch this one with a ten foot pole. And for good reason.  As I wrote in my last post: what country wants to get its forces into a shooting war with its fellow Arab-Muslims?  What country wants to be tasked with disarming a militia–which refuses to do so–by force if necessary?

Trump’s plan appears at a standstill.  The way it was structured, whether intentionally or not, is the failure of any provision, leads to the failure of all the rest. You can’t proceed from one if any fail.  As it appears it has here.  What will the Administration do?  What will its crackerjack dealmakers, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner do?  Can they pull this rabbit out of their hat?  Will Trump step forward to impose a solution on Netanyahu, as he has recently?  Or will he stand back as the entire project disintegrates?

Netanyahu isn’t waiting around for an answer.  Amidst this paralysis, he has staked an aggressive unilateral course which will inevitably lead to a renewal of the genocidal war. He will not suffer. Israelis will not suffer. Trump will not suffer. Americans will not suffer. Only one party suffers as it has for the past two years: Palestinians.