Trump’s Project Freedom and the Blockade Charade

UPDATE: Project Freedom got off to a rollicking good start. When the US Navy began escorting ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran launched a coordinated attack against two US destroyers with missiles and drones, which were successfully intercepted.  During the fight US warplanes sank seven of the attacking Iranian vessels. The Iranians also launched missiles at a UAE oil refinery which struck it, starting a massive fire. Two ships were able to leave the Strait. Only 798 more to go.  It’s goin’ great.

Pres. Trump announced today he was commencing Project Freedom (a nice catchy meaningless phrase) tomorrow.  He promised that US navy ships would escort tankers “stranded” in the Strait of Hormuz.  He posed it as a humanitarian mission (as if anything Trump does is altruistic):

“For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business…

CENTCOM promptly toned down Trump’s pronouncement:

US officials moved quickly to clarify the scope of the operation. Two officials told Axios that Project Freedom does not constitute a traditional escort mission — US Navy ships will position themselves nearby while primarily providing commercial vessels with information on navigable lanes free of Iranian mines.

I strongly doubt any ship owner is going to be willing to send his vessel through under those circumstances.  While the Navy may help avoid mines, who will shoot down Iranian missiles or fire on attacking navy speedboats?  Looks like no one.

In his typical unilateral fashion, Trump hasn’t bothered to consult the Iranians, who are blockading the waterway.  They might have something to say about the matter. But he blithely proceeds as if nothing and no one else mattered.  This is precisely the way he started the war. And look how well that turned out. So what could go wrong?

Well, the Iranians are bound to disapprove of removing the blockade since it’s the major weapon they have at their disposal to disrupt the campaign against them. With the Strait cleared and shipping reopened Iran will be left without its one and only card, one which it has played deftly till now.

UKMTO WARNING ATTACK 052-26

Click here to read the full warning⤵️https://t.co/CsdgXsQQKR
#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec pic.twitter.com/J9lRjmBJB4

— UKMTO Operations Centre (@UK_MTO) May 4, 2026

Though it’s hard to know precisely what will happen since this war has a habit of upending expectations, I predict that Iran will fire on any ships being escorted out of the Strait.  In fact, as I was writing this post the report of such an attack arrived. On Monday (Iran time), the Iranian navy attacked a bulk carrier. Though it caused no injuries or serious damage, this was a message relayed to Trump. Defy us and you will pay the price.

If Iran fires enough missiles one will eventually get through and strike a ship.  Then Trump’s gambit will fail.  At that point, he has promised to retaliate, adding vaugely that any interference “unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully.”

Given his retreat from virtually every threat he’s made during this war, it’s doubtful he will want to resume the full-scale attacks of the first weeks.  He’s been given the apt sobriquet, TACO (“Trump always chickens out”).  So there’s a better than even chance that Project Freedom won’t work and that Trump will slither away from it; all the while proclaiming it a smashing victory.

CENTCOM added that it will aid any ship “seeking to freely transit” the Strait.  Meaning, the ship, its owner and its insurer will have to agree to participate.  Which ship owner will want to make himself a guinea pig for this maritime crapshoot?    Not to mention, there are 300 tankers and over 800 vessels anchored in the Strait.  How will the US Navy escort tens or hundreds of such ships seeking safe passage?

Trump has couched this operation as humanitarian in order to conceal its real purpose: to break the blockade and get shipping moving once again. This would relieve the economic strangulation it has caused and relieve some of the global anger and suffering which led his popularity to plummet.  Instead of negotiating an end to hostilities, Trump is playing the angles. The Iranians will see through this latest gambit and undoubtedly have a few tricks up their sleeve. This cannot end well.

The War Powers resolution: when is a war no longer a war?

The short answer to that question is: when Trump says it’s not.  He’s stuck his hand into a magician’s hat looking for that rabbit. The best he could come up with is that the resolution is moot because he’s declared the war “terminated.”  That’s cute, because there are 10,000 Marines, two aircraft carriers, hundreds of war planes and thousands of missiles still stationed in this theater.  They’re not moving.

Though there is a ceasefire, this is not the end of hostilities.  If he wants to end the war he has to either negotiate an end to it with Iran (unlikely) or else withdraw US forces and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  Barring that, he’s fooling no one.

The problem is that the MAGA Republicans control both Houses of Congress.  They will never take a vote on invoking the resolution.  So chances are Trump will get away with yet another end-around the laws of this country.  Even if the Democrats go to the courts for relief, the Supreme Court will unquestionably side with Trump. However, if the Democrats take over in November, this would be a perfect article of impeachment.

Even if Democrats cannot muster the two-thirds Senate vote to convict, this third impeachment will be different than the prior two.  Trump will be in the final two years of his last term.  His popularity will continue plummeting as he becomes a lame duck.  Impeachment will further erode what little authority he retains. Trump will be on the way out…finally. As Shakespeare wrote in Hamlet: “’tis a consummation devoutly to be wished.”