Iran: US Boots on the Ground, Kharg Island Takeover?

As the Trump-Netanyahu war of aggression enters its fourth week, the conflict appears to be escalating incrementally but inexorably.  This week, Iran fired an ICBM 3,000 miles, targeting a US-UK military base in Diego Garcia.  It serves as a hub for US bombers tasked with attacking Iran and other Middle East targets.

Iran just fired two missies [sic] at a target 4000 kilometers away. London is 4400 kilometers from Tehran.

Tell me Iran is not a threat to the world.

(Paris, Rome, Vienna and Berlin are closer…) https://t.co/yTVXK5Rejq

— Ari Fleischer (@AriFleischer) March 21, 2026

⚠️ 🎯 Iran now has the capability to strike mainland Europe, including London, Paris or Berlin, after launching ballistic missiles at UK-U.S. base Diego Garcia. pic.twitter.com/JUv0Vwfgsj

— Arsen Ostrovsky (@Ostrov_A) March 22, 2026

It is an extraordinary feat for the Iranians and has unnerved the MAGA and Israeli war hawks (see above).  They’re shouting hysterically that it’s only another 250 miles for an Iranian missile to reach London.  Apparently, every European capital is on Iran’s target list. As if the Iranians would ever want to do so.

But of course, it’s so much easier to spin tales that demonize Iran, when it’s the US and Israel who are the real bogeymen.  Who started this war?  Who is killing schoolgirls?  Who is bombing ancient mosques?  Who is bombing a nation’s capital? The stench of hypocrisy hovers over this war and those who defend it.

For the war apologists, Iran apparently has no right to retaliate against its attackers.  Any response is a sign of guilt, a confirmation that Iran is a terror state.  When of course it is Trump and Netanyahu who are the terrorist kingpins.

Every nation attacked by another has a right, even a duty to defend itself. That includes taking the fight to the enemy.  If you don’t want Iranian missiles landing on your bases and oil fields, then don’t start a war against Iran. If you do, you can only expect more of the same.

Diego Garcia is an air base which plays a critical role in US military operations in the region.  From its runways, bombers take off headed for bombing runs against Iran.  Of course, it would be a prime target for the Iranian missile corps. If US military planners didn’t anticipate this attack, then they’re doing a miserable job.  Which, judging by how the war is going, seems evident.

 

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Trump is acting increasingly like a deer caught in the headlights.  One day he says the war is winding down and the US has accomplished its objectives.  The next day he threatens to destroy Iran’s key oil facilities on Kharg island. Sometimes he says both on the same day.  In the latest ominous pronouncements he issues a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.  If it refused, he promised to bomb Iran’s main power plant and subsequently the rest, as long as Iran refused.

He’s also ordered two Marine combat units comprised of 5,000 men to the Gulf.  He says he won’t put boots on the ground.  But follows that saying to a journalist, if he planned to do it, “I wouldn’t tell you.” Clear??  Media reports increasingly speculate that the US military is planning to invade Kharg island and wrest it from Iran’s control.  The goal would be to cripple Iran’s oil exports, the country’s main source of export revenue.  He appears to believe that if he brings Iran’s energy industry to its knees, that it will be forced to come to the negotiating table and beg for mercy.

This, of course, is a delusional take.  Despite absorbing severe blows from US and Israeli attacks, Iran is by no means cowed.  In fact, if US troops occupy Kharg they will become sitting ducks for Iranian drones and missiles.  Iran has already struck several tankers in the Gulf resulting in closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  The oil terminals are well within range of every Iranian military asset. The commitment of ground troops to this war would be catastrophic.  Not only in placing the lives of American soldiers under threat, but regarding the momentum of the war itself.

War is a mess. It never goes according to plan.  Strategists overestimate their own power and underestimate that of their adversary.  That is why they do war simulations in order to game out how hostilities might proceed.  Apparently, our generals believed they were fighting a bunch of Arabian camel drivers who would turn tail and run back to the desert as soon as they heard the roar of a B-52 overhead.  That clearly hasn’t happened.

There is no doubt that both Iran, the US (13 soldiers killed) and its allies have suffered during this conflict.  But it’s not a question of who can inflict the most damage (clearly the advantage lies with the US and Israel).  The war will be won or lost based on who can withstand the most damage. Who will be the last person standing.  How long can each party hold out.

Undoubtedly, the advantage lies with Iran. Decades of sanctions have forced Iranians to devise survival strategies.  They are used to deprivation.  They have learned how to manage through adversity.  The US has no stomach for an endless war and the blows it will inflict on its own, and the global economy. In addition, the US midterm elections will happen in six months.  The longer the fight, the larger it will loom in the minds of voters come Election Day.

Trump is a fool in too many ways to count.  But he is the consummate survivor. Despite the huffery and puffery, he knows when to cut and run.

In an election fight when he and his Party are already under water, he cannot afford to add this albatross around his neck.  At some point, he will have to declare victory and go home.  When he does, Iran will remain standing.  Its leaders will remain in place. Its military will be bloodied but unbowed.  In fact, Iran will become a beacon of resistance in the Muslim-Arab world.  It will be the only nation which stood up to the combined might of a global superpower; which stood toe to toe until Trump blinked.

Then there is Israel. Netanyahu has promised practically an endless war, saying scores of targets remain.  But once the US ends its role as partner in aggression, Israel will remain the sole adversary.  A US cessation of attacks on Iran will relieve the downward slope of his approval ratings. But Israel’s continued onslaught would still likely cost Trump come November.