Today, the Israeli cabinet ratified the agreement hammered out by talks in Egypt among Trump’s advisors, Israel and Hamas. It has also responded positively. But what did they agree to? The main point was hostages. Hamas, in a major concession, had agreed last week to free all remaining Israeli captives in return for 2,000 illegally imprisoned Palestinians. Subsequent talks were to finalize lists of those to be released. The parties are now in the midst of these discussions. Hamas has submitted its lists. Israel is yet to finalize them.
In particular, Hamas wants Marwan Barghouti released. He is the only Palestinian leader with credibility to lead his nation. Hamas understands that when/if the war ends, it will no longer exert the control it did in Gaza. Someone must replace it. If the enclave is not to collapse into anarchy, it must be someone with stature. Someone everyone will respect and obey. Barghouti is the only such figure.
For that very reason, Netanyahu will desperately avoid freeing him. He much prefers a weak, disunited Palestine to a well-functioning one. As Yossi Beilin said in a TV interview tonight: only someone who does not want peace will refuse to free Barghouti.
The US negotiators had accepted his inclusion on the list of prisoners to be freed. However, Israel removed his name at the insistence of Itamar Ben Gvir and Netanyahu. The former has transformed Barghouti into a demonic figure, much like Trump has transformed immigrants and antifa into existential threats to the nation. These are the hills which thugs are prepared to die on.
Trump, as is his wont, announced he’d brought “peace in our time.” He announced he was ready to hop on Air Force 1 and jet off to Egypt for the signing and get his picture taken with the freed hostages. Never to be outdone, he wanted to match Carter and Clinton, who celebrated their own White House peace treaty signing, with the pomp and circumstance he so loves. But his envoys told him–not so fast. You’re getting ahead of yourself.
Now, the hostages and Palestinian prisoners will be released on Monday or Tuesday. Though we still don’t know who on the Palestinian side will be included.
The deal calls for Israel to withdraw its forces to a “yellow” security line within Gaza. This would allow some of the refugees to return to their homes. Though the IDF would still occupy 53% of its territory.
Netanyahu never agreed to withdrawal, despite the terms specified in the agreement. When push comes to shove, will Trump force him to do so? Will the Arab states serving as guarantors on Hamas’ behalf, put their credibility on the line and demand Israeli adherence?
Meanwhile, Hamas has put forward its own condition, which was vaguely mentioned in the deal:
…Senior Hamas figure Osama Hamdan said…that hostages will not be released until an “official declaration of the end of the war in Gaza” is made.
Al Jazeera reports:
Khalil al-Hayya, the head of Hamas’s negotiating team, has said the group has received guarantees from the US and mediators that an agreement on a first phase of a ceasefire agreement means the war in Gaza “has ended completely”.
This, however, is a condition Netanyahu refuses, since it’s critical for his political survival that the war continue indefinitely (or until Trump forces him to yield). Unless, this is a Hamas negotiating tactic and not a hard demand, the deal appears at an impasse.
Netanyahu, who is the ultimate backtracker on agreements he signs, is seeking ways to sabotage the plan without taking any of the blame. He nibbles around the edges to attempt to undermine the deal, without rejecting it outright. Doing so would open him to blame. He’s too wily to place himself in such a position. His goal is to get the maximum benefit (freeing the Israeli hostages) with a minimum cost:
Senior Hamas official Mahmoud Mardawi accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of trying to derail the agreement…by “backtracking on the prisoner list.” A Hamas spokesperson told Al Jazeera that Israel “is playing with the timeline and the lists” and called on mediators to pressure Israel to meet its commitments.
Hamas officials maintain that the agreement is meant as the beginning of the end of the war in Gaza. However, they say Israel is “rushing and evading” key issues such as troop withdrawals, prisoner names and the return of displaced persons. Israeli officials have not publicly responded to these claims.
Despite Trump telling Netanyahu to stop hostilities during the negotiating phase, he has refused. 29 Gazans were murdered in the past 48 hours. Such killings have continued since the moment Trump made this commitment. Again, this is another way for the Israeli prime minister to arouse hostility and resentment among Palestinians and make them more inflexible in their demands. This, in turn, increases the likelihood they, and not him will be blamed in the event of a failure of the talks.
Another key sticking point is disarmament: Hamas has agreed to lay down its weapons after the war ends and a Palestinian governance body is established. But it will not do so until Israeli troops withdraw, according to a vague unspecified timeline. Netanyahu so far refuses, leaving an impasse.
Hamas demands all troops leave Gaza completely before it considers hostilities ended. Netanyahu has declared the IDF will maintain an indefinite presence. This is yet another landmine to be decommissioned if peace is to be achieved.
Regarding disarmament, UN General Assembly resolutions confirm the right of Palestinian armed resistance in the face of foreign occupation. In the case of Gaza, that would mean a full withdrawal of Israeli forces. Given that it has occupied Palestine since 1967, it’s difficult to imagine it would agree to ending such a siege in Gaza.
Hamas is relying on the Arab states who created the peace plan together with the Trump administration, to ensure Israel adheres to its provisions. However, there are numerous pitfalls regarding such an assumption. Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt, which were the key players in the agreement, must be willing to exert maximum pressure on Trump to act if Israel balks. Then, Trump himself must be willing to lay down the law with Netanyahu and force him to yield. The US president is not known for follow-through. Once he’s squeezed the maximum benefit from a situation, he abandons it and moves on to the next potential “win”:
…The praise that Trump warrants for the ambitious attempt—not yet the reality—of ending the Gaza war may dissipate once “phase one” of the plan, the hostage release and prisoner exchange, is completed. Then comes the hard part, and it is doubtful whether Trump will maintain the same level of personal engagement and political commitment. He loves the attention, the limelight, and the gratitude, but there will be little of that left in the next phases.
Trump is the indispensible man whom no one can count on:
…The sustainability of the ceasefire ultimately hinges on US President Donald Trump and other Western leaders reining in Israel and its maximalist demands.
“There is a very high risk that Israel is able to win the argument in Western capitals … that Hamas must be fully demilitarised [before the occupation ends],” he [Hugh Lovatt] said. “If that happens, then it will be a new pretext for Western states to let Israel off the hook as happened under the Oslo Accords.”
While Israelis and Gazans celebrate, I hope there will still be reason to celebrate in a week or a month or a year. A resumption of the war would be an outcome of immeasurable cruelty to a people who has already endured the worst imaginable.
Macron is OUT, Erdoğan is IN
Trump and Macron’s Aggressive Handshake at Gaza Peace Summit Goes Viral
A professional lip reader claimed that Trump and his French counterpart Macron swapped threats and warnings.
“You reward Hamas with the promise of a Palestinian State.”
Expansion Ottoman Rule?
Israel may not appreciate Turkey’s participation in the Arabian peacekeeping role with boots on the ground in the Gaza Strip.
Trump coziness with the authoritarian ruler of the AKP party of Turkey may play a key role in the Ukraine war .. getting Crimea back for a NATO naval base in the Black Sea. Likely easier than conquering Bagram AFB in a hostile Taliban country.
Theatrics of ’PEACE’ @Sharm El-Sheikh Photo-Op
Witkoff praises Netanyahu for his role in Israel’s steadfastness … he just about got booed off stage in Tel Aviv.
77 Years of Impunity
On October 11, 1985, Palestinian-American Alex Odeh was killed when a bomb destroyed his office.
Today the social-democrats of the “Left” are still under attack for aligning with rights of the Palestinian people.
Richard
Thanks for this piece. It does a great job laying out the difficulties that face peace over the next few weeks and months.
The most telling line is what you quoted from Yossi Beilin that I heard him say on Amanpour last night: “only someone who does not want peace will refuse to free Barghouti.” It is sad that the entire issue of Marwan Barghouti is not covered at all in the MSM. Gershon Baskin is trying to get the new head of the ShinBet to talk to Barghouti in prison; in South Africa, the PW Botha regime talked to Mandella, but they puled Mandella out of prison to have the talks in a more neutral setting.
And beyond the near-term issues are the long-term peace that is even more difficult.
link to timesofisrael.com 6.5 hours is all it took for the government to abandon the ”hostages” who managed to be alive after the IDF tried their hardest to kill them all.
Netanyahu has to be counter-threatened- squeezed to fully withdraw and end the “Gaza War”… though I don’t know exactly what ending the Gaza War means since it was a new phase of the mother of all wars that has been continuing for decades…1967? Hamas sounds reasonable and ready. Marwan Barghouti I often confuse with Mustafa Barghouti … also distant cousin is also good candidate for higher leadership.
A lot has to be worked out. The people need major reparations imo for the harm done to them that they did not deserve. The gross Trump vision of a Rivera in prime real estate proceeding would be unimaginbly obscene.
The Nobel will really have disappointed (again) if they give the prize to Trump prematurely. It’s not really deserved at all since he would be taking credit for the work of many others, being desperate for a win and the prize. I would not wish the plan to fail though to prevent Trump’s glory especially if he uses the pressure he seems to have. It’s way too soon for celebration that the media is giving this given the blockages soberly laid out here.
Thank you.
Whilst you may have a case to put forward, you do an injustice by not stating the “whole truth”:
1. The 2000 Palestinian prisoners who are candidates for exchange are not “illegal prisoners” but Palestinians who have committed criminal offences and tried by military courts in accordance with the rules of the Geneva Convention that the occupying force must set up courts of law – many of the 2000 are serving life sentences for murder.
2. Marwan Barghouti may, as you say, be the only possible candidate to lead the Palestinian State, but it should be mentioned that he is the arch planner of multipal murders of civilians in terrorist attacks – he is not some sort of non-violent Ghandi like political prisoner but serving many life sentences (maybe akin to Menachem Begin, also responsible for murder but later became political)
3. In 1967 “Palestine” was not captured by Israel – it was occupied by Egypt and Jordan previously to 1967, and captured by Israel from them, and these countries only relinquished their claims to the relevant territories during the 1970s, and neither Jordan nor Egypt did anything to set up a state for the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank between 1948-1967.
What is legal vs illegal here? It’s not murder in regard to resisting a brutal occupation (that has killed many times the number)? The occupation has not been murdering? Israel’s murder (mostly) and imprisonment is justified against resistance called murder? And it must be mentioned by super armed state. Uniforms, planes and bombs blur the gross destruction and murdering, displacing of innocent Palestinians.
What is the standard where a Palestinian leader must be non-violent but an Israeli leader not? Isn’t willingness to be violent in their cause almost a requirement for leadership?
As for the term Palestinians- it’s principally used for the people identifying as Palestinian since 1967 , the national charter/PLO 1964. These are people who have lived in the area much much longer. And so now how do you identify an Israeli in comparison? Or are we wedded to a double standard?
Palestinians have identified as Palestinian for over 1,000 years, they have been citizens for 10,000 years, a major trading port for over 4,000 years so will you shove the Joan Peters invented nonsense where the sun doesn’t shine
Marylin J. Shepherd, So very well said. I couldn’t have said it better!
Thank you for visiting Richard’s place … a bit of tutoring will never hurt anyone. Israelis love debate … can endure a long time.
Palestinians who have committed criminal offences and tried by military courts in accordance with the rules of the Geneva Convention that the occupying force must set up courts of law
■ Advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice on the Legal Consequences of the Construction of a Wall in the Occupied Palestinian Territory (9 July 2004)
Gravely concerned at the commencement and continuation of construction by Israel, the occupying Power, of a wall in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including in and around East Jerusalem, which is in departure from the Armistice Line of 1949 (Green Line) and which has involved the confiscation and destruction of Palestinian land and resources, the disruption of the lives of thousands of protected civilians and the de facto annexation of large areas of territory, and underlining the unanimous opposition by the international community to the construction of that wall ..
■ Israel’s Continued Occupation of Palestinian Territory ‘Unlawful’: International Court of Justice (ICJ) – full – 19 July 2024
The hundreds of children are not criminals, nor are the hundreds of women and most of the older boys and men are so called administrative detention victims. But if you want to talk about indicted criminals allowed to do whatever they want that would be Bibi and Gallant who got most of the Israeli’s killed by the IDF. Do stop spewing our racist hasbara.
According to reports in The Responsible Media™ (e.g. link to time.com), 250 of the Palestinian captives to be exchanged are serving life sentences, convicted, as you say, by the occupier’s military ‘courts’, which famously ‘boast a roughly 99% conviction rate’ (link to bbc.com). Those who would accept such verdicts as unequivocal evidence of guilt are willfully, culpably naive. The other 1750 or so were abducted in Gaza over the last two years and have never been accused, much less convicted, of anything.
Of course the 2000 Palestinians AND the rest 8000 are all guilty when you consider that they were “tried” under a mish -mash of ancient laws an custom-created “rules” my the military designed to find them guilty. I presume you may be vaguely aware of the hundreds of Palestinians murdered by Israelis who were either never tried or were released after just days of comfortable “imprisonment”.
The rest of your “points” are equally bogus and delusional; people directing murders of Palestinians are ministers in Israeli cabinet or are senior generals.
If you desire peace, open your eyes but if you are like the 82% Israelis who support genocide then I guess you can go in in your delusional cocoon.
@shmuel:
So many assumptions, so little reason to trust any of them. A military court is not a ‘court’ in the sense that most of know a court. They are processing centers for Palestinian detainees. They churn out convictions like an assembly line. THere is no due process, no proper rules of evidence. In fact, evidence is sealed and often not even available to the defense. A military court would convict a ham sandwich if the prosecutor told it to.
Isn’t it ironic that you declare your indignation at Barghouti’s alleged crimes (again, convicted by a military, so-called “court”) when most of Israel’s early leaders (not just Begin, but Ben Zvi, Shamir, Rabin, etc.) had hands drenched in blood. They were terrorists as well who became leaders of the new nation. Yet apparently, Israel’s terrorists are purer than Palestine’s. IF that isnt’ hypocrisy I don’t know what is.
Stop splitting hairs about who controlled what and did what, and when. The only thing that matters is that Israel conquered and occupied Palestine for the past 70 years. And it did so inviolation of international law–which btw I’m so glad to see you care about so deeply from your reference to the Geneva Convention. Isn’t interesting that you dredge that up when it’s conveient and ignore it when it isn’t?
Trump a loser … failed “mission” Middle East
link to nobelprize.org
Damn … after sanctioning ICC prosecutors and ICJ judges, even lobbying with good friend Stoltenberg. The world turned against Donald Trump ☹
Barghouti is the logical person to lead a Palestinian government and he must be freed. If Netanyahu refuses to agree to this and accept a state of Palestine, as I said at some point Palestinians along with citizens from other Arab countries in the region will figure out a way to successfully attack and overrun Israel. Perhaps Israelis who don’t support what Netanyahu and his cohorts are doing, could be a part of a new Palestinian government. With only 32% of Americans and only 8% of Democrats standing behind Israel considering the genocide that country committed, a future Democratic president and congress may very well reflect that sentiment and not blindly give aid to Israel.
You do realise the Palestinians are very smart people don’t you
Marylin J. Shepherd, I presume you are asking me? Yes, I do realize. Also, your other comments on this thread are stated so very well.