Skepticism at Trump’s Tenuous Gaza Ceasefire Plan

For most of the period of the Gaza genocide (since 10/7), there have been various reports that ceasefires were imminent only to find they were premature.  There have actually been two, but neither led to an end of the carnage.  Now Pres. Trump, fresh on his victory tour after securing a tenuous Iran-Israeli ceasefire, predicts a truce in Gaza. Many media reports claim that Hamas has approved the deal and that Israel is on the verge of doing so.

But it’s worth remembering that Netanyahu, under pressure from his most bloodthirsty Judeo-Nazi ministers, has sabotaged almost every similar initiative by Biden or Trump.  As the saying goes–as far as Israel is concerned–it’s not over till it’s over.  For years, he has stalled, lied and sabotaged almost every agreement presented to him to resolve the conflict. Why would now be any different?

I’ve found little media reporting on the actual details of the proposed deal.  But this Israeli story describes the provisions:

• 60-day ceasefire
• 8 living Israeli hostages exchanged on first day
• 2 hostages freed on Day 50
• Bodies of 18 dead hostages exchanged at three separate stages
• Remainder of living and dead hostages released as part of “permanent ceasefire”
• Freeing 1,400 Palestinian prisoners
• IDF withdrawal to the Morag corridor (east-west land grab dividing Gaza)
• “Increased” humanitarian aid entering Gaza

The proposal calls for negotiations after the 60-day truce ends. But this was also part of the previous ceasefire and Israel reneged, refusing to negotiate on the remaining unfulfilled items. It also sabotaged various provisions of previous plans. So the proposal to “increase” aid is so non-specific as to be meaningless. Israel will never agree unless it’s quantified exactly what this means and how it will be implemented. Along with some party or authority charged with supervising the process.

Hamas has demanded that there be a mechanism to guarantee a permanent ceasefire. It has sought a US guarantee to ensure Israel continues to engage in post-ceasefire talks and that fighting will not resume at its conclusion.

The Palestinian group says it will release every hostage it holds once such an agreement is sealed.  It also demands a return to the previous humanitarian  aid program led by international NGOs. Israel insists on continuing the sham operation conducted by its third-party cutout, Gaza “Humanitarian” Foundation. It’s led to the murder of 500 desperate Palestinians seeking food aid.

A new account says that both the UN and Palestinian Red Crescent could play this role, while GHF will continue its operations. One wonders why any Palestinian would try to run the IDF gauntlet for a sack of flour when they have a far safer alternative.

Israel has so far refused many of these proposals. It has demanded Hamas relinquish control of Gaza and disarm, while the latter rejects this provision.  These are not insignificant hurdles, considering that Israel has reneged on previous ceasefire provisions.

To sweeten the deal, Trump dangled an Oval Office photo-op for Netanyahu. That assumes that the Israeli leader will come to Washington to approve the deal. This is by no means assured.  No doubt he will also leave with some goodies in his basket, new weapons systems to pursue more genocide in Gaza; and plans to resume joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran.

One must not believe that these talks and their final outcome will offer any resolution of hostilities. Israel has backtracked and sabotaged these processes before and there’s no reason to think they won’t repeat them this time.  As with Trump’s Iran deal, this truce is tenuous and could easily fall apart as soon as Israel sees an opportunity to pursue its grander ambitions via assassination, territorial aggrandizement (ie. Occupation), etc.