BREAKING: Skepticism of Israeli Claims Iran Plans Underground Nuclear Test

UPDATE: Since publishing this post, I’ve come to the conclusion that it’s highly unlikely that Iran is preparing an underground nuclear test.  The likely purpose of the leak outlined below is to engage in psychological warfare against Iran and its leadership; to put it off-balance, to confuse it about Israel’s intentions.  The leak is little more than Israeli bluffing and saber-rattling, and not very persuasive at that.

A knowledgeable Israeli source informed me that its security apparatus has intelligence information that Iran is planning an underground nuclear test. Separate reports claim that a recent earthquake may have been such a test.

Before I go farther, I want to make clear that I’m extremely skeptical about this report for reasons I’ll explain below.  Nevertheless, even if the story is false, there are reasons why it’s being leaked, and that’s what should concerns us (again read below).

Publication of the claim is prohibited by the Israeli military censor. It’s being reported here for the first time. Israeli media report that several days ago the Knesset held a secret session to discuss such developments.  Such a session is usually reserved for discussion of major military operations that involve extensive military expenditures and budgetary considerations.

I’ll list the reasons why the story may be true followed by the reasons for my skepticism and an alternate theory.  Iran has taken body blows from Israel in recent months.  Undoubtedly, it has been thrown back on its heels by losing one of its major allies, Hezbollah, after savage Israeli attacks beheaded its senior leadership.  The overthrow of Bashar al Assad in Syria has also deprived Iran of its primary conduit for arms shipments to Hezbollah.

The election of Donald Trump has ended any possibility of rapprochement or easing of punishing sanctions.  As a result, Iran may conduct such a test to prove it is still relevant in regional affairs.  Also, it could be a warning to Israel that it now has nuclear capability and that it will not permit future Israeli attacks, such as the murder of a senior IRG commander, destruction of one of its diplomatic buildings in Damascus, and a massive air assault which allegedly destroyed it air defenses.

Skepticism is Advised

This theory offered by my source doesn’t make much sense.  Iran has always been careful about its nuclear program.  It has never enriched uranium at the level required for a nuclear weapon.  It has carefully calibrated its responses even when attacked by Israel. It has been the opposite of reckless in this regard.  To test a nuclear weapon breaks all of these taboos.  It offers its enemies justification for the harshest of counter-measures as punishment.

Iran has always been careful not to violate such international standards like the Test Ban Treaty, knowing it would provide an excuse for the world to condemn it harshly.  In particular, Iran’s arch enemy, Israel could now justify a full-scale attack on its nuclear facilities.  It would provide Pres. Trump with cover for joining in such an attack, which would make the impact even more devastating.

During his first term, the president’s military advisors constrained him from such an attack.  But in his second term, any such constraints have been removed.  Doubtless, he would be enamored of a proposition that the US join Israel in such an operation. It would present a Trump ascendant. Leader of a major military assault on a global enemy.  Trump is nothing if not vain. The image of Trump astride the world like Hercules wearing the uniform of a conquering emperor, would be quite appealing.  Netanyahu is a master of he art of feeding Trump’s ego.

What is the leak’s real purpose?

If the gist of the above leak is wrong or deliberately misleading, what could the real reason for this it? Media outlets have reported that Israel believes now is an optimal time to launch such an assault on the Iranians.  Regionally, it is riding high. It is now (possibly) wrapping up its war on Gaza. Most of its hostages have been freed (though 25 remain).  Netanyahu is taking credit politically for the releases. Hamas has been decimated, perhaps for years to come.

After pummeling Hezbollah during an invasion of southern Lebanon and merciless assaults on its strongholds in Beirut, Israel troops now occupy at least five positions south of the  Litani River despite the ceasefire terms requiring it to withdraw.

The toppling of Assad and his replacement with a non-belligerent government, has abated the threat of both Iran and Hezbollah.  The new regime has little reason to serve as a conduit for Iranian arms shipment or continuation of the alliance with the above parties.

Israeli troops invaded southern Syria and plan on continuing its occupation indefinitely.  On the very day that Syria’s rulers held an all-party conference of Syrian civil society to chart the nation’s future, Israel launched a massive air assault on what it called Syrian military positions.  Also, in the hours before the attack the Syrian leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, issued a demand that Israel withdraw its troops from his territory.  The attack was Israel’s defiant response.

As Owen Jones points out, Israel in effect has just gone to war against Syria, depriving it of sovereignty over its own territory.  In effect, Israel has decided it must not only invade and occupy Syria, but must prevent its military from any presence in the south. While global media treat the Israeli operation as a non-story.   There has been hardly any coverage. It pours millions of gallons of ink into stories about Ukraine’s valiant defense of its territory against Russia. Western nations ship tens of billions in weapons permitting Ukraine to fight on in the face of an invasion. While Israel’s aggression produces an effective yawn from the rest of the world.

Bibi Netanyahu has, with these “successes,” seen that he can break decades-old status quos with his frontline neighbors.  He can even perpetrate a genocide in Gaza and the West Bank.  There are no longer constraints.  The world doesn’t care. It mouths platitudes about international law, while doing nothing to stop Israeli mass murder.

One of the last elements of a regional status quo to break would be an all-out attack on Iran’s nuclear program.  Despite estimation by nuclear experts that such an attack will not destroy its facilities, such an Israeli operation would be a crowning achievement in Netanyahu’s eyes.

He will have shown the world that Israel is the hegemon in the Middle East.  It will usher in a new era of regional domination: a Pax Judaica like the ancient Pax Romana.  No one (at least in Netanyahu’s perspective) will threaten Israel. He will be able to boast to Israelis that he is the Indispensable Man. The first prime minister in Israeli history to subjugate all the nation’s enemies and usher in a period of maximum security.

Preparing Public Opinion for Iran Attack

It’s probably no accident that a senior Israeli colonel specializing in nuclear preparedness, gave an interview to a major Israeli media outlet describing how Israelis can defend or protect themselves from a nuclear attack.  The article highlighted the threat posed by Iran.  This interview is meant by the army to gin up fear of such an Iranian attack, and legitimize an Israeli defensive attack to prevent it.

He added that Iran may already have a nuclear weapon, offering no other proof or evidence; other than speculation that an earthquake recently detected there may–so he claims–have been an underground nuclear test.  Any seismologist can tell you that seismic sensors can detect the difference between the two such phenomena relatively easily.  An earthquake releases a massive amount of energy. A nuclear detonation releases a fraction of it.  An earthquake originates deep in the earth’s crust. An explosion originates a few hundred feet below the surface.  Seismometers can detect these differences.

This is a cheap bit of disinformation based on previous false claims that a 2024 real earthquake was in fact a nuclear test. In fact, Israeli intelligence sources were likely responsible for this earlier account as well (thanks to my reader, Oui, who pointed this source out):

The 2024-10-05 Iran M 4.5 earthquake took place at a time of heightened tensions in the Middle East. We perform a discrimination and moment tensor analysis and identify a shallow-dipping, reverse fault source commensurate with the compressional setting of the Iranian interior.

Nonetheless, the event’s aftermath saw widespread dissemination of misinformation, and potentially active disinformation, concluding that it was in fact a test of an Iranian nuclear weapon. The ’evidence’ for many of these claims was based on inaccurate interpretation of seismic data.

One of the most persuasive reasons to reject this claim is that underground nuclear testing was banned by the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (to which Iran is a signatory) in 1996.  The US hasn’t done one since 1992.  Nuclear engineers don’t need to do them. They can test such explosions through computer simulations. Conducting such a test would be crossing the nuclear threshhold and offer yet another reason to punish Iran.

His claim is a poorly constructed red herring, but one which would seem persuasive to the average Israeli.  It is part of what intelligence circles call “perception management.”  The preparation and persuasion of the public of the necessity for a major national undertaking such as a military attack.

The prime minister can offer the world a persuasive justification for a pre-emptive attack. If Iran was planning to test a nuclear explosive it would violate IAEA protocols. An Iranian nuclear device would, Netanyahu would argue, pose an existential threat to his country.  Israel cannot permit such a development and would take all possible measures, including a direct attack, to forestall it.  He believes the world would find such an argument persuasive, and that it would quell any possible controversy or opposition.

Iran assault postpones corruption trial

It will also provide him an ironclad defense against the corruption cases he faces.  In fact, Israeli media reports that he argued in a secret court session that proceedings must be further delayed, because of the urgency of the Iran issue and his central role in managing it.  To bolster his case, he even brought along the chief of military intelligence to argue for his boss’ indispensability.  The judges, as one would expect, agreed and postponed the next scheduled court session.  They also agreed with the defendant’s request to limit his testimony in order to permit him to engage fully with an unspecified matter of national import, which he could not reveal to the judges.  What mere judge could stand in the way of the national interest?

The Israeli justice system is not, unlike most western nations, independent of political influence.  Politicians, generals, corporate chieftains rarely face accountability–unless their behavior is so egregious it cannot be ignored by the public.  If Netanyahu was on the ropes politically, the trial would happen and he would be convicted.  But as a powerful political force, the justice system will shudder before his presence.  The cases have already lasted four years without any prospect of their conclusion any time soon.

Such successes practically guarantee that Netanyahu will never be held accountable for his crimes.  He can continue as prime minister indefinitely–years ago he became the longest-serving leader in the country’s history, eclipsing its founder, David Ben Gurion.