A new article in Middle East Eye offers a fascinating “take” on Vladimir Putin’s recent announcement that Russia would resume delivery to Iran of its $800-million S-300 anti-aircraft system. After intensive lobbying by Bibi Netanyahu, in 2009 Pres. Obama pressured Putin to delay shipment of the advanced weapons system. Putin agreed the following year. The delay meant that Israel would during that period have an opportunity to attack Iran without having to penetrate one of the more advanced anti-aircraft systems produced in the world.
According to a Daily Beast report:
“Many US defence officials from the Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps agree that the Russian missile system effectively renders entire regions no-go zones for conventional jets … [and] only high-end stealth aircraft like the $2.2 billion B-2 Spirit – of which the Air Force has exactly 20 – and the high-performance F-22 Raptor [and] … F-35 joint strike fighter … [will be able] to operate inside those zones.”
However, the report goes on further to say that several military experts contend that “no warplane now operating can remain inside those well-defended areas for long”.
If Iran were to obtain the S-300 system, that would be “a complete game changer. … That thing is a beast and you don’t want to get near it,” a senior US Marine Corps aviator told The Daily Beast.
In the current climate, in which a nuclear deal with Iran appears likely, Putin rightly judged that the S-300 would no longer pose a drawback to any possible international developments regarding Iran. When the resumption of the sale was announced, Prime Minister Netanyahu railed against it. But curiously, Pres. Obama did not. In fact, the article quotes him as saying:
“I’m frankly surprised that [the ban on the S-300 delivery to Iran] held this long, given that they were not prohibited by [UN Security Council] sanctions from selling these defensive weapons,” remarked Obama.
He added, “This is actually a sale that was slated to happen in 2009, when I first met with then-Prime Minister [Vladimir] Putin. They actually stopped the sale, paused or suspended the sale, at our request.”
This reactions shows a few important things about Obama’s approach to Iran: first, that he doesn’t share Israel’s blanket opposition to every aspect of Iranian military power. Rather, Obama is concerned about one thing alone: Iran’s nuclear program. He is realistic enough to understand that the U.S. cannot police and restrain the entire Iranian military arsenal. So Obama seems to be saying: if Israel wants to do this, be my guest, but it’s not going to be U.S. policy.
The MEE author also raises another interesting basis for Obama’s response: he may be looking toward a future detente between the U.S. and Iran. Both the U.S. and Russia see Iran as a potential huge Middle East trade market. Iran has oil and 70-million citizens yearning for many of the products western nations produce. It could be a win-win for both sides.
Not to mention:
Iran and the US, now moving into a state of détente, each hope to resolve Iran’s nuclear crisis and later align their interests in fighting Salafi extremists, resolving the Syrian crisis, and perhaps the unfolding crisis in Yemen.
If Obama steps out of the way of the S-300 transaction, he builds potential good will with critical forces within the Iranian political and military elite. Not to mention that if Russia completes the deal (which became mired in an international arbitration dispute brought by Iran after the suspension), it places Putin in an excellent position to reap benefits when the walls fall and sanctions are lifted.
But I set yet another reason for Obama’s stepping out of the way: Netanyahu’s growing alliance with the GOP far-right, the Congressional speech, and his screaming opposition to an Iran deal–all of these have been pokes in the eye to Obama. We’ve already seen one response to this: when Netanyahu let loose the dogs of racism just before the recent Israeli election and summarily rejected a two state solution, the U.S. refused to allow the prime minister to walk his statements back. We correctly said, No, the Bibi we know is the one who made these odious statements, not the one apologizing for them.
I doubt anyone believed this cold, hard response to Netanyahu was the final such sleight coming (despite statements from DC insiders that that Israel was gradually coming in from the cold). In fact, I believe Obama’s refusal to criticize the S-300 resumption is meant as yet another poke at Netanyahu.
When the Obama administration spoke of actions it might take to express displeasure at Netanyahu’s backtracking on a two-state solution, officials said we might refuse to veto Security Council resolutions embarrassing to Israel. But standing back when Russia delivers one of the most advanced weapons systems in its arsenal to Israel’s arch enemy sends a message as well: you made your bed, Bibi, now lie in it.
In the two years remaining in Obama’s last term we can clearly expect many more such face slaps. It could be an interesting time.
Though chances that Israel would’ve attacked Iran were slim before, they’re almost non-existent now. Iran will have a system that can knock out of the sky multiple targets. While Israel may’ve prepared for the eventuality that Iran would procure this system and built counter-measures, the S-300 is regarded as a highly effective weapon. It makes Israel’s chances of knocking out Iran’s nuclear facilities that much harder. This can’t sit well with Bibi. But he’ll just have to grin and bear it.
Similarly, the chances of the U.S. attacking Iran were even slimmer than those of Israel attacking. But agreeing to allow the deployment of S-300 means that Obama has, especially in light of an imminent nuclear deal, taken such an American attack completely off the table (though he hasn’t admitted it in so many words). The President sees the Iran of the future as, if not an ally, then at least a partner in specific political endeavors that could stabilize the region. Not to mention the possibility of resuming trade ties and of hosting a general cultural and artistic engagement between two great nations.
With nothing to show for 2 terms in the White House, the man with the “Yes, we can” slogan tries to create a legacy, something good to be remembered.
Cuba is a nice (and justified, IMO) act but Iran seems like a complete gamble which if (and you can’t deny it could) it fails, will tarnish his name forever. In history, he will likely compete with Bush Jr. for the worst president post WWII.
“..if it fails, will tarnish his name forever ”
Nonsense.
Do you know under which President’s watch it was when North Korea got the bomb?
I don’t
I am Cuban, so I think making a deal with Iran is absolutely justified, but a deal with Cuba requires further thought. We definitely don’t want a human rights violating hereditary neo fascist dictatorship, which happens to hold deep grudges, sitting that close to the USA. Iran is in a different hemisphere, they don’t matter much.
@ Tankist:
Nothing to show except for the most radical health care reform in the nation’s history & staving off a massive financial crash; supporting same sex marriage, normalizing relations with Cuba and building a possibility for detente with Iran? You mean nothing to show except for that? And I say this NOT as someone who defends Obama because I think he could’ve done so much more. But when light-weights like you dismiss what he has done, that’s going a few steps too far.
As for gambling, Bibi is the one who’s a gambler (inspired perhaps by his gambling tycoon Sugar-daddy Sheldon Adelson) & always with a losing hand.
As for “worst president,” Bush has that one all locked up.
I agree Bush was infinitely worse. I’m ok with the move to re-establish diplomatic relations with Cuba, but I don’t agree with a relaxation of sanctions.
You see, the Castro family dictatorship realizes communism won’t work, so they are trying to morph. Their plan is to copy the Chinese model, which combines capitalism with a partial meritocracy, something I consider neofascist.
The Castro dictatorship goes beyond the Chinese model, they are trying to transfer power to a third Castro, Alejandro Castro Espin (Raul’s son). They also have a princeling caste which enjoys a luxurious and hedonistic lifestyle (I have photographs of Fidel Castro’s son partying with Paris Hilton and other sexy celebrities). We are also observing cosmetic changes to give outside the misperception that repression has been reduced, when its increasing.
The Cuban regime has received a lot of economic support from the Chavista regime in Venezuela, but Maduro is incredibly incompetent, and has been unable to overcome the problems he inherited from Chavez. The Venezuelan chavista regime enjoyed a huge petrodollar windfall from 1999 to 2014. This allowed them to nearly destroy the economy and survive using the extra cash flow from high oil prices. They also took on debt, and have avoided paying nearly $20 thousand million they owe to suppliers. The current chavista failure in Venezuela reduces the cash flow to Cuba, thus putting the Cuban regime in a pickle. This means the negotiations between Obama and the Castros require extreme care, so they don’t allow the regime to morph into an hereditary neofascist dictatorship.
Why did I take the time to explain my perception? So you can understand the way USA foreign policy impacts the course of history. I happen to think the Netanyahu regime is bad for Israel, and so is USA policy when it supports Netanyahu’s moves. The USA is like a clumsy elephant, when it dances a little bit it can cause a lot of harm if it dances with the wrong moves. USA foreign policy has created an enormous mess in the Middle East, I don’t know that today’s condition can be resolved in the next 50 years, but I do know it’s going to be a lot worse if the Israeli right wing goes nuts and starts bombing Iranian nuclear facilities. That may even uncork a biowarfare genie and who knows what else can emerge from the mess it would make.
As I see it Obama is setting up the next US president for a fall.
Just like Clinton, Carter et all. Whoop de doo.
The main thing is that Iran has 70 million citizens yearning for Western products and has stacks of oil.
Surprise surprise.
These are AB defense missiles though (not even the S-500 series), and they are not missiles designed to attack. Iran is the one who has been threatened for the last decade with threats of attack from the zionist state of Israel, as Iran should be the ones who should have more concern for their citizens, even if Israel/USA says they will strike their reactors with precision. We’ve all heard that one before.
And this effort is one PR smokescreen for Israel and their abominable treatment of the Gaza/West Bank prison camp. The US would be much better served as trade partners with Iran (while ending to fund apartheid Israel) as they have a vibrant population 10 times greater than Israel. We should embrace the change because Israel will continue to keep their apartheid wall up and build more settlements. In fact, Israel lost the PR war, but they do not realize it yet. They’re like an ethnocentric encampment that has lost their way and original purpose, who don’t want to ally themselves with anyone, all the while bilking the US with nothing significant in return. Any general or military strategist can see what a boondoggle they are in the new century.
All the money that the zillionaire diasporists throw at the presidential elections is not going to change to corrupted character of Israel. It needs to change from within and no kowtowing of the american government reps can make that happen. Yes, oneday soon they are going to have to eat crow whether they like it or not – it’s only a matter of them having the courage to face their problems now or eventually later.