Today, the other shoe dropped. After a week of vicious air assaults on Gaza, the IDF sent in 10,000 troops for the long-expected ground assault. Apparently there have been fierce firefights in which Israel claims dozens of Hamas fighters have been killed. Hamas claims IDF forces have been killed though the IDF refuses to confirm the charge. Haaretz reports that 30 soldiers have been wounded, two seriously.
The Gaza death count is at least 460 with 2,000 wounded. Over 100 of the dead were women or children. 25% were civilians. Besides the Hamas fighters killed today, Israel bombed a northern Gaza mosque during prayers and killed 13 worshippers. This will no doubt foster positive relations with the world’s Muslim population.
In what is the finest piece Ethan Bronner has written since becoming the N.Y. Times Israel correspondent (and I have written critically of his reporting here before), he summarizes the dangers inherent in this invasion. Most importantly, he raises the red flag question: what is Israel’s ultimate goal?
As Israel’s tanks and troops poured into Gaza on Saturday…a question hung over the operation: can the rockets really be stopped for any length of time while Hamas remains in power in Gaza? And if the answer is determined to be no, then is the real aim of the operation to remove Hamas entirely, no matter the cost?
He goes on to quote two of Israel’s most senior ministers as advocating precisely this view:
“There is no doubt that as long as Hamas controls Gaza, it is a problem for Israel, a problem for the Palestinians and a problem for the entire region.”
Vice Premier Haim Ramon went even further Friday night in an interview on Israeli television, saying Israel must not end this operation with Hamas in charge of Gaza.
“What I think we need to do is to reach a situation in which we do not allow Hamas to govern,” Mr. Ramon said on Channel One. “That is the most important thing.”
Is Israel going for regime change? It is a chilling question for those of us who are critical of this operation. Again, Bronner poses the concerns quite acutely:
…While it may sound decisive to speak of taking Hamas out of power, almost no one familiar with Gaza and Palestinian politics considers it realistic. Hamas legislators won a democratic majority in elections four years ago, and the group has 15,000 to 20,000 men under arms. It has consolidated its rule in the past 18 months since pushing out its rivals loyal to the more Western-oriented and moderate Fatah party…
And while there are plenty of Gazans who would prefer Fatah, they seem hardly organized or strong enough to become the new rulers. [And even if they were] they would never be willing to ride into Gaza on the back of an Israeli tank. In fact, the longer Israel pounds Gaza, the weaker Fatah is likely to become because it will be seen as collaborating.
The likelier result of a destruction of the Hamas infrastructure, then, would be chaos, anathema not only to the people of Gaza but also to those hoping for peace in southern Israel.
Here Bronner presents another distressing possibility that must be seriously considered given the failures of the 2006 Lebanon war and the U.S. invasion of Iraq, whose goal was to topple Saddam Hussein–which were characterized by similarly unrealistic expectations:
…Even if Israel intends to hold back from completely overthrowing Hamas, its choice of assault tactics could head that way anyway. And the Israelis may already be facing a kind of mission creep: after all, if enough of Hamas’s infrastructure is destroyed, the prospect of governing Gaza, a densely populated, refugee-filled area whose weak economy has been devastated by the Israeli-led boycott, will be exceedingly difficult.
You’ll recall that Dan Halutz, Amir Peretz and Ehud Olmert confidently predicted the elimination of Hezbollah as a potent force in 2006. You’ll also recall that Don Rumsfeld predicted Iraqis would welcome U.S. forces as liberators. Neither prediction came remotely true. So what happens if Israel gets its wish and Hamas is either eliminated from, or falls from power?
What will take its place? Fatah? Hardly. Fatah was despised in Gaza BEFORE Hamas toppled it. Even if Fatah were willing to do Israel’s dirty work and assume control, the party would be so hated it couldn’t possibly govern effectively. If Israel does reoccupy Gaza it will become responsible as occupier for all of Gaza’s needs, unlike now when it can say it has washed its hands of the enclave. This would also effectively nullify Ariel Sharon’s much heralded withdrawal from Gaza in 2005 thus causing Israel an even deeper black eye on the world state. Not to mention that it would set up Israeli forces as likely target for all manner or suicide bombers and vengeance seekers of whom there would be myriads.
Recall the fact that when the U.S. invaded Iraq it faced only Iraqi army forces which it quickly subdued. Only later did a powerful insurgency arise which made us pay the price for our foolhardy illusions about what we could accomplish there. This is what awaits Israel in Gaza should it eliminate Hamas.
Given the grand delusion that was Israel’s strategy in 2006, any serious observer has to concede the real possibility that Israel wants to go whole hog. Regime change in Gaza would entail an even greater disaster for Israel than would a limited ground operation designed to eliminate Hamas launching capability. The former would lead to a Lebanon-style debacle, while the latter will only lead to a failure of the operation to realize Israel’s objectives to eliminate Hamas rocket fire.
Unfortunately, it’s come to this: trying to persuade Israel to restrain itself from making an even more serious blunder than it already has made. If the U.S., UN and world community continues to diddle and dawdle, then they will have only themselves to blame for the results…not only more bloodshed and loss of innocent life in Gaza, but a receding ever farther into the distance of a comprehensive resolution of the overall conflict.
Excellent analysis, your comparison to the Iraqi army forces is an interesting point of view. However, remember this is not a war, Hamas had no way of engaging with the F16s, Naval forces or artillery.
Do you think the ground invasion is going to accomplish anything? We all know it’s a suicide mission for allot of the troops, but will the deaths just be used an excuse to kill more people? Or will Livni just use those names of the fallen during her campaign?
Also, did anyone else find her (Livni) smiling and prancing with Sarkozy disgusting? This campaign was supposed to be a defensive one, I would hope she would show some respect for the people she is supposed to be defending.
Hello Mr Silverstein
I am very impressed of your blog. You have listed a long list of probelamtic issues about the current Gaza war.
In an earlier post you say: “…There is only one sane, reasonable resolution of this conflict: Israel must lift the 18 month siege of Gaza and allow the return to normal life. Hamas must end the rocket barrages against Israeli civilians. It is simple, yet at the same time impossible because neither side appears willing to concede…”
So you offer an impossible solution to the conflict i.e. no solution at all. Do you think you can formulate some more practical solution or you feel that this is beyond your abilities. Myself I would be very happy to hear any of your new refreshing ideas.
Truly Yours
Dan
“The likelier result of a destruction of the Hamas infrastructure, then, would be chaos ”
Would that stop all those missiles hurled at Israeli civilians? Will it stop the tunnels? Because right now, I’m tired of hearing about all those missiles and tunnels.. If chaos in Gaza stops the missiles and tunnels, that is acceptable. It’s a shame it had to come to this, but those missiles and tunnels must be stopped. Actions have consequences.
This is the corner that Israel/US/Britain has backed itself into when they declared their “war on terror”: the ideology of not speaking to anyone deemed “terrorist” or their affiliates has made their options limited when dealing with the reality of insurgency and deep-rooted resistance to occupations and colonisations. It’s either negotiation which equates to being “soft” or scorched-earth policy which only inflames more hatred against themselves.
This is election campaigning Israeli style.
Killing Arabs mean increase in approval ratings.
Watching CNN,BBC nothing is said about the Israeli election next month.
In the last paragraph you quoted, Bronner hints at another fact those obsessed by their “Hamas = terrorists” myopia can’t see: much of the targeted so-called “Hamas (or “terrorist”) infrastructure” – ministry buildings, police stations and so on – is in fact the infrastructure of the civilian administration, which happens to be headed by Hamas atm. Nobody would call the White House a piece of “GOP infrastructure”, would they? I agree that the likely outcome will be either another Lebanon-style defeat for Israel or complete anarchy in Gaza, in which no militant of any faction would have any reason to hold back, including, needless to say, from firing missiles into Israel. If Israel wants to place its bets on interfactional violence (with the possibility of it spilling over to the West Bank), like it did with the preempted Fatah coup of 2006, or the attempt to rout Hamas by Mohammed Dahlan’s merry gang of goons, or indeed the fostering of Hamas itself, well, go ahead. That has worked like a charm in the past, didn’t it? Disuniting the Palestinians has indeed worked to infinitely delay a solution of this conflict and in the meantime to enable Israel to rule supreme; it will never bring Israel the peace it ostentatiously wants.
the gaza actions may or may not be election related. msnbc and cnn certainly do discuss the impact of the actions on the elections and vice versa. i dunno what you guys want – should israel respond in kind with random rocket attacks on civilian targets in gaza? i’m quite certain the current israeli objective is to remove the rockets and those who launch them. is that so hard for you guys to understand? the gazans can repent at any time and cease the wanton rocket attacks.
Tzvee,
Speaking for myself, I would like a negotiated arrangement which includes an end to the rocket fire and a removal to the blockade of Gaza. Israel’s failure to lift the blockade is what led to the non-renewal of the ceasefire in the first place.
@Tzvee:
What would you want the Palestinian people to do? Besides roll over and play dead that is.
-Occupation for 40 years.
-Apartheid inside Israel for Arab Israeli’s.
Honestly what would any group of human beings do, living under such conditions.
Do you know why Nelson Mandela spent 27 years in prison?
He wanted to plant bombs, the apartheid regime here in South Africa said he was a terrorist.Mandela’s name was only recently taken out of US terror list.
To us Mandela was a freedom fighter, fighting the injustice of apartheid.
I am not saying Hamas is correct.Firing rockets at woman and children cannot be justified by any reasonable human being.Contrast the Merkava and F-16’s killing innocent people whilst I am typing this reply.Does the Palestinian people not mourn.Are they not human beings to.
Dov dying in he’s bed and Dawood dying in he’s bed should enrage the world equally.
I recommend that those interested in this latest Israeli barbarism, so justified and even extolled by many, read Gideon Levy’s latest piece in today’s HAARETZ. His succinct essay, “And There Lie the Bodies”, cuts to the quick: http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1052348.html. Its firsr paragraph read as follows: “The legend, lest it be a true story, tells of how the late mathematician, Professor Haim Hanani, asked his students at the Technion to draw up a plan for constructing a pipe to transport blood from Haifa to Eilat. The obedient students did as they were told. Using logarithmic rulers, they sketched the design for a sophisticated pipeline. They meticulously planned its route, taking into account the landscape’s topography, the possibility of corrosion, the pipe’s diameter and the flow calibration. When they presented their final product, the professor rendered his judgment: You failed. None of you asked why we need such a pipe, whose blood will fill it, and why it is flowing in the first place.”
Seems to me that those excusing and encouraging Israel’s latest destruction-and-killing spree should consider offering their services to various purveyors of hard liquor, for certainly they could pull in a lot of money, demonstrating that they are salesman ubër alles, whose moral compass is so dysfunctional as to allow them to freely ply the driver of a powerful automobile, known to be alcoholic, with all the liquor at their disposal even as he enters his car and turns the ignition key. My very own NYC mayor, Michael Bloomberg, is flying off to Israel on his white horse – Pegasus, perhaps – to lend aid and comfort to the drunken killer. Might help him with the next election even as Israel’s tough politicos strive to make themselves look tougher still. One sure thing is that we shouldn’t exactly hail the departure of our warrior prezdent Bush and Svengali Cheney since the equivalent and possibly worse seem to be alive and well and functioning in that stalwart little democracy east of us.
I agree with everything you say here. I wonder tho, does Hamas also have a responsibility to stop the rocket fire? Given that it does nothing but harden resolve of the invaders and inflame the situation?
It seems Hamas has a choice – to be a political body whose central message – that Israel does not have a right to exist – is carried with the same peace, patience and dignity that led Gandhi and Mandella to success in India and South Africa.
Or to be a violent organisation, forever chased and attacked by the far more wealthy and powerful state it claims to seek to destroy, as all states in the world do when faced with their possible violent destruction. But in this case, is it really fair for Hamas to also rule over the people of Gaza when Hamas’s presence there will inevitably endanger the 1.5 million civilians living there?
@rich: “Honestly what would any group of human beings do, living under such conditions.” honestly? there are dozens of more productive paths
I agree that Israel seems to be taking a shotgun to a knife fight, as it were, but does anyone really think that Hamas, or Hezbollah (if we’re bringing Lebanon into the discussion), would actually stop attacking Israel if Israel did everything that they wanted?
Look, the fact is, Hamas wants Israel gone, and I suggest nothing would change this, no matter what Israel did. No negotiating period. It’s just a fact.
I hate that Israel has done this, if I must be honest, but the fact is, I hate what Hamas has done too.
Ron Paul denounces the attack on Gaza; expects BIG TROUBLE ahead.
http://www.dailypaul.com/
“there are dozens of more productive paths”
How unproductive will this latest incursion prove to be? 40 years and the best Israel has come up with has led to another military assault on refugees.
There are more productive paths; sadly, Israel chooses not to engage in it until the cost proves too high. How many more lives must perish until Israel realises that killing won’t stop the nationalism?
@Dan:
While you seem to be trying to keep an open mind about the severity of Israel’s assault on Gaza, you do not know very much about what Hamas has said or believes on this subject. Hamas has accepted the notion of a virtually permanent ceasefire if Israel withdraws to 1967 borders. This is a far cry from “wanting Israel gone.” Israel, in fact, seems to want Hamas gone more than the other way around.
@Tony Sehic:
How little you understand the Middle East. You remember the chaos of Afghanistan after the Russians left? What resulted fr. the chaos? The Taliban and Al Qaeda. Chaos in Gaza would result in far worse than Hamas. Believe me. That’s why, despite my strong reservations about Hamas, they are far better rulers of Gaza than Fatah since they actually run the place & control what happens there. They are not corrupt, nor are they as ruthless, cruel or torture prone as Fatah was when it ran Gaza.
@Dan:
Why would you bother to begin yr comment w. praise of my blog if all you really meant to do was insult me.
My solution is not only simple & practical, I predict it is what will end up happening in the not too distant future. Israel WILL ends its siege. It cannot go on forever. It is simply too immoral, too stupid, too ineffective to continue much longer.
Dear Richard:
Thank you for what you do on this blog, and thank you for caring so very much.
Your opponents here in comments don’t seem to notice that you come at this with love for those on both sides of this conflict. I hear your anger but underneath it I hear that your love of humanity makes you frustrated. You want people to be better than this. You want YOUR people to be better than this.
Take it easy and be well, and thank you again.
@Tzvee:
Paths like Oslo? What did Oslo bring the people living under occupation.
Did it end the occupation?, did it decrease settlements.
Statements coming out of US says “Israel is a UN member fighting a terrorist organisation”.
Israel must be the only UN member who cannot clearly define their borders.Labour,Kadima and Likud all would give you different borders of the state of Israel.
Hamas is indeed willing to accept an Israeli withdrawal to pre 1967 borders but in my conversations with Hamas members of Parliament they all made it clear that this is meant as an interim step to their ultimate goal. And we need not fool ourselves about what this ultimate goal is. I hate the violence that is currently taking place in Gaza but I really believe that Hamas has painted itself into a corner and that the end result – endless conflict – is well in keeping with the goals of Hamas’ paymasters – the Shiite regime of Iran. Does anyone really think that Israel is going to reward Hamas by withdrawing to pre-1967 borders? Of course not. Like I said – endless conflict and instability that perpetuates the victimization of Palestinian civilians, but more importantly, creates wide scale regional instability that threatens existing regimes and benefits only the Iranians and their Syrian allies.
Funny how Hamas was supported by the state of Israel to counter the PLO and now Israel’s want to destroy Hamas.
Mia what existing regimes are threatened by the Gaza war.
The Egyptian regime? A regime that is unjust, hated by the population.When was a free election held in Egypt?
You do not peace with your friends , you make peace with your enemies.
The popularity of Hamas is a function of the brutality of the occupation. If Israel does weaken Hamas, then some other more radical, more violent, less controllable organization will take its place.
Peter H, your statement above strikes me as right-on. I envy its succinctness.
Richard,
In an earlier post you said that acc to a poll 86% of Israelis supported the assault. This morning I heard on Pacifica radio that a Ha’aretz poll indicates only 46% of Israelis supported the air offensive, and that opposition to the ground war is growing. I can only hope that the latter poll is correct.
ellen
I suspect that the initial intentions were not as stated but actually to destroy Hamas. I think they had to be careful about stating the goals b/c success or failure would/will be judged accordingly.
If that is not the case then perhaps the body chemistries of the PM, Defense minister, generals, are changing as they go for the gold.
Of course it is a “grand delusion”– great phrase.
Forgot to say that Ethan Bronner’s reporting has been quite good and thank you for conceding that here.
Also Gideon Levy’s piece on the blood pipline test ( And There Lie the Bodies” is moving- someone mentioned this above and gave the link.
Suzanne:
Moving piece by Levy indeed.If more Israeli’s felt like Mr Levy then think the whole situation would have been much better.
@ellen: Sorry, but that simply can’t possibly be right. Even if you included Israeli Arabs in the poll (who would be less supportive), there’s no possible way the response would only be 46%. But I’d be happy to see a link & review that further.
Now, if more Israeli soldiers die then support could rapidly decline–in fact it would decline. But that remains to be seen.
· do you know which country in the world allows itself to break all the international law and treaty
· do you know which country allows itself to kill children, elderly, woman without being blamed.
and the world give it excuse because of the holocaust!, we all know that the holocaust is a big things but it does not mean that the Israeli can kill, destroy home and occupy land not belong to them. They can do that at any time.
Till when we keep give them excuse.
Most of the Israeli live in occupied land!
We all know about Hamas Missiles toward the “innocent Israeli”, have you ever asked where this missiles lunched to , these missiles are launched toward on occupied land “stolen land from the Palestinian”.
Most people in Gaza are living in camps. Their original home are occupied and stolen by the Israeli
The Israeli can kill any person in Gaza for no excuse, a lot of incidence happened where the Israeli soldiers killed children for just having fun.
The only way the Palestinian can defend themselves are these locally made missiles, comparing with the most advanced missiles the Israeli are using to kill or horrify people in Gaza
Israeli prevent Petrol, Hospital supply, even the basic food supply on 1.5 million in Gaza, have you ever thing that is it really these missiles is the reason or there is more big reason behind that!!
If you look back on the history of the Israeli, if they want to occupy land they do massacres so the people can flee and leave the lands for them, “Dir Yassin, Bea’r Sabah and etc..”.
Till when we keep giving them excuse!
“can the rockets really be stopped for any length of time while Hamas remains in power in Gaza?”
There was a 5 month ceasefire between Hamas and Israel before the invasion. In the 3 months before, there wasn’t a single casualty on either side. Israel failed to ease the economic sanctions promised if Hamas stopped the rockets. And who broke the ceasefire? Israel, on Nov 4, 2008, the same day the rest of the world was distracted with the US elections.