What If the Abbas Referendum Passes?

Robert Rosenberg of Ariga.com raises some interesting prospective issues regarding Mahmoud Abbas’ projected national referendum on the Prisoner’s Document, the peace plan crafted by Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. The plan calls for Palestinian recognition of Israel in return for a pullback to 1967 borders.

Rosenberg starts by comparing the Bush Administration’s new approach to talking with the Iranians to Olmert’s approach to “negotiating” with the Palestinians. In each case, Rosenberg believes there is an element of Kabuki theater; meaning that neither Bush nor Olmert really wish to negotiate seriously with either. But they must appear to be willing to do so. He says the U.S. may “get away” with this posturing:

Israel, however, might not be as ‘lucky’ as the Americans, when it comes to the Palestinians — the Abbas ultimatum to Hamas comes to a head next week, and while Hamas is still not speaking with a uniform voice in favor of the so-called Prisoners’ Document, which implicitly recognizes Israel by calling for a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, the polls show that prisoners’ initiative is supported by 80 percent of the Palestinians in the territories. The Fateh is saying it will hold a referendum on the 18-article document whether Hamas agrees or not. And the Islamic Jihad’s armed men showed up in front of TV cameras without their masks to announce they approved it, as well.

If the Hamas accepts the Prisoners’ Document, it will pave the way for a complete breakdown of the so-far united international front isolating the Hamas government, particularly since the Prisoners’ Document explicitly calls for a national unity government, which would ‘dilute’ the Palestinian government with Fateh ministers. Hamas-Damascus is of course against it, which makes problems for the government of Ismail Haniyeh. Polls show support for Hamas slipping to below 30 percent, with more than 40 percent favoring Fateh right now — and hundreds, if not thousands of PA police loyal to Fateh protested at Gaza’s parliament building — ransacking it in anger — demanding their salaries, then marched in support of Abbas.

If the international front breaks down, pressure will quickly mount on Israel to engage the PA government, and not just Abbas, in real dialogue — and to release the $150 million it presumably has collected in customs and VAT on behalf of the PA since Hamas took office and Israel began its economic siege of the PA.

I, for one, hope that the Bush Administration, the EU and other governments are anticipating the outcome of such a referendum, if it takes place, and what their response to it would be. There are many ifs here but…if Abbas pursues the referendum path; and if the electorate approves it; and if Hamas falls into line with it; then Israel should be made to honor its own rhetoric. It must sit down and negotiate with Abbas AND Hamas for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

The world must end the blockade of Gaza. It must recognize Hamas as Palestine’s legitimate national government. It must treat Hamas and Palestine as a member in good standing of the world community. If it does some or all of those things I believe there will be a rude awakening within the Israel and a sea change comparable to the one Sharon engineered regarding Gaza withdrawal and the demise of the settler movement.

The international community should anticipate that Olmert will come with 1,000 new reasons why he can’t or won’t negotiate with Abbas or Hamas. But his feet must be kept to the fire. And even if Hamas does not fully accept the Prisoner’s Document or the referendum, the fact that the Palestinian people will have democratically endorsed the provisions must compel Israel to at least negotiate in good faith with Abbas. If Olmert continues to argue that he can’t negotiate with Abbas because Hamas still rejects Israel’s existence (a ridiculous contention to begin with), then the world must tell him this argument no longer holds merit. Condi, are you listening??