Trump Threatens to “Blow Up” Oman, Bullies Gulf States to Join Abraham Accords

READING: My latest piece for The New Arab, New York Times Israel rape exposé long overdue; it’s good reporting, not blood libel

Pres. Trump held one of his ‘Dear Leader’ White House meetings, at which the cabinet secretaries compete to see who can be the most obsequious.  One of the reporters present shouted a question about:

…A potential short-term deal that would allow for shared control of the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, which border the key waterway. In response, the president issued a direct threat to Oman, a U.S. ally.

“Oman will behave just like everyone else, or we’ll have to blow them up,” the president stunningly warned, adding, “Nobody’s going to control it.”

What can one say at this point that hasn’t been said? What expression of outrage can anyone offer that hasn’t been offered before?  It’s one thing, however horrible to blow up American democracy, but something else entirely to threaten to obliterate a Middle East US ally.  Next thing you know he’ll be threatening to blow up Germany or France or Denmark or Greenland.

He’s the boy who cried wolf.  No one believes him. Not Americans. Not the Arabs. He’s TACO.  He can bluff and bluster.  But he rarely, if ever, does what he threatens.  But isn’t that beside the point?  By just threatening, he’s normalized mass violence to attain US interests.  We have a long history of such military adventurism.  But this is taking it to a whole new level.

Trump’s Abraham Accords ultimatum

Like a magician, Trump offers yet another outrage for his next act.  Netanyahu and Trump have cajoled the Gulf states for years to join the Abraham Accords.  Four have done so.  But after Israel began its genocide in Gaza, the others swore off joining.  Now Trump views his war of aggression against their mutual enemy, Iran, as a favor to them.  They owe him, or so he believes.

As I’ve written here, the president’s policies and statements are not built on any coherent strategy or policy. They’re entirely transactional: I do something for you, you do something for me.  It never occurs to him that their countries have become a battleground thanks to the Trump-Netanyahu war; and that possibly, very possibly they’re not too keen on the result.    Why would any Gulf state feel that Trump did them a favor in attacking Iran, and single-handedly destroying the global energy market with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz?

But now he’s ratcheted up the pressure even higher, offering bald-faced threats if they refuse.  The ultimatum? He will refuse to negotiate a peace deal with Iran.  Now, keep in mind that Trump wants (or should want) such a deal as much or more than these Arab states.  So who would he be doing a favor?

Trump himself directly threatened to blow up those talks on Thursday. Defending his call yesterday…for hesitant Middle Eastern nations to sign the Abraham Accords out of gratitude for dealing with Iran’s supposed nuclear threat and eventually (potentially) securing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the president warned at his Cabinet meeting that he may decide against signing a peace deal with Iran unless those countries acquiesced.

“They owe it to us,” he said. “I’m not sure we should make the deal if they don’t sign.”

This is not the way international relations work. You don’t threaten an ally, to force them to do your will.  If you do, as in the case of the Versailles Treaty ending WWI, where France and Britain levied punishing sanctions on a defeated Germany–this led to the rise of the Nazis.  That’s what happens when you force someone into an action that benefits you, but harms them.  It unleashes resentment, a desire for vengeance, and chaos.

In this case, when Trump first brought up this hare-brained scheme in a conference call with Arab leaders, they greeted it with “stunned silence.”  This is what he deserved.  But, as I wrote, this indicates how little he knows about the region, its countries, its peoples and leaders.  The president may be able to invade Venezuela and overthrown its leader, but he can’t do that with multiple Middle Eastern states.

Further, this will only drive them farther away from the US.  No leader wants to hear ultimatums, especially not from erstwhile allies.  Threats like this send them rushing to the exit to find new allies. Precisely what is happening.

It is even driving them to improve relations with Iran, with whom they’ve had rocky dealings in the past.  They know that Iran isn’t going anywhere. They will have to deal with it over time.  While the US, especially under this president, is a fleeting shadow.  They don’t know whether Trump will be there or not.  Nor is he reliable.  What these countries want, above all, is stability.  Not adventures, not missiles, not blown up factories.  But oil and profits–flowing like the waters in the (now blocked) Strait of Hormuz.  Trump has disrupted all that.  Now they will have to figure out how to pick up the pieces.

Meanwhile Trump is making a mockery of the “peace deal” he’s been touting for the past week. Every account of this deal as leaked, specified that Iran would give up its enriched uranium in return for sanctions relief. Now he’s jettisoned that and reverted to the asinine position: give up the nuclear material with no sanctions relief. Is he a fool? Does he just not give a shit? Does he expect the Iranians to simply bow down before his superior majesty?

No doubt, he’s been humbled by the torrent of opposition to the earlier deal.  As usual with our TACO president, he forgets what he’s agreed to as soon as his interlocutor leaves the room.  The next one persuades him of the exact opposite proposition. What a way to run a country.

If I were the Iranians, I would say: let him bloviate all he wants.  We know we can’t make a deal with him because he won’t honor it.  Better to roll the dice and take our chances with no deal. Then see what happens. Yes, it’s a dangerous proposition. But more dangerous than agreeing to a deal with this erratic president?