US-Hamas Direct Talks Free US Hostage, Leaving Bibi in Dust

Several weeks ago, the US announced a historic change in its relations with Hamas. After decades of refusing to talk to it directly, the Trump administration revealed that it would begin such negotiations.  Unfortunately, few in the media noted this remarkable change and its greater meaning: that it was abandoning Israel’s stance refusing of direct talks.  Thus, the taboo was broken to Israel’s disadvantage.

Last week, those talks bore fruit and the US negotiator, Steve Witkoff, revealed that Hamas would release the last living US hostage, Edan Alexander to the Red Cross.  This happened yesterday.

Biden spent 16 months bitching and moaning about Gaza, while doing nothing. After 40,000 Gazans had died, all he had to show for it is single ceasefire, which freed some American hostages. Despite my contempt for Trump, in only the fourth month of his presidency, he has freed the only remaining American.

After languishing for 600 days in a dungeon, Dapper Don wants the ex-hostage to fly to Doha, where the former can do a victory lap. Typical aggrandizing. His family refused, thankfully, given his medical condition.

Though Netanyahu has not revealed the full extent of his fury at this sleight, he did say Israel would have to “detox from reliance on US security guarantees.”  This is entirely rhetorical, since Israel cannot wean itself from American weapons.  It can only survive if we maintain the weapons pipeline, as we have to the tune of tens of billions since 10/7.  Bibi’s pique reveals some of his sense of grievance on being cut out of the process.  However, American weapons have nothing to do with the issue at hand. As usual, he is attempting to divert from the issue, which is his refusal to do a deal.

As Witkoff noted, the reason the US negotiated directly with Hamas was that Netanyahu had become an impediment to its interests. He determined that the Israeli leader did not want a deal (see Witkoff graphic) and wanted the fighting to continue indefinitely.  After that, it became clear that cutting Israel out of the picture was the only way to succeed.

The Israeli leader is on a long losing streak regarding Trump. After a long-term joint strategy under Pres. Biden to attack the Houthi, who imposed a near blockade on global shipping through the Persian Gulf, Trump abandoned the policy and Israel.  He negotiated a deal directly with the Yemenis for a cessation of hostilities on both sides.  The US would stop its attacks if the Houthi stopped attacking US vessels. Pointedly, there was no agreement to stop attacks on Israel.

Today, he signed a $600-billion investment deal with MBS, part of which includes lifting of US sanctions against Syria.  Again, this is a slap in the face to Israel, which occupies southern Syria and routinely attacks Syrian government targets.  Trump is in effect cutting the legs out from under Israel’s interventionist policy.

Pointedly, there was no mention of normalization of relations between the Kingdom and Israel.  Netanyahu spoiled that possibility by perpetrating a genocide against Palestinians.  MBS couldn’t very well ignore this crime and look his citizens in the face, if he recognized Israel.  But Trump, on the other hand, isn’t about to miss this opportunity to burnish his dealmaking credentials. He’s not about to let Bibi stand in his way.

There is another state in the region gaining Trump’s most favored Arab nation status : Qatar.  The emir has a generous habit of gifting 747s to authoritarian leaders like Turkey’s Erdogan and Trump.  Bibi has no luxury 747 to offer him.  The Qataris are looking mighty attractive to the artist of the deal. Especially when you consider how troublesome Netanyahu has been by refusing a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal.  Given the choice, the president prefers wins, which is what these Arab states offer.

Regarding Iran, Netanyahu and Olmert before him have lobbied the US leader for a joint attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.  Presidents from Bush to Biden refused, concerned that it would set off a regional conflict.  Lately, Israeli officials have argued that their elimination of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran’s air defenses offer perfect timing for such an attack.  Trump, who is no fan of Middle East wars, has turned a deaf ear, announcing instead bilateral nuclear talks with Iran’s leaders.  There have already been four rounds of talks, which indicate progress.  There have been no leaks and no complaints on either side, unlike Witkoff’s bleak, public assessment of Netanyahu’s role in the Gaza talks. Striking a deal with Iran would be a massive blow to Netanyahu’s policy of maximum hostility and bellicosity.

Israel is being left in the dust.  Its intransigence is harming its relationship with the indispensable ally–the one who arms and funds Israel’s forever wars against its regional enemies.  As Netanyahu complained above, the days of the US weapons gravy-train may be drawing to a close. The green light for Israel pursuing its own interests however and whenever it wants, may be turning red.

Such a bitter pill for the prime minister to swallow. He’s had such a winning hand for so long–felling Israel’s greatest enemies, not to mention staving off his corruption trial and the scoring the coup of normalization with the Arab world–and now this.  Trump is spoiling his parade.  It just doesn’t seem fair.

Once the hostage deal was sealed, Witkoff traveled to Jerusalem. There, Netanyahu announced he was sending his negotiating team back to Doha. But the terms he was offering Hamas were the same it has rejected repeatedly. Either he sent them back because he wanted to show he was serious, while refusing to be. Or the US deal and its message made him sit up and take notice. Uncle Don’s tough love may have had an impact. On the other hand, never underestimate Bibi’s level of cynicism. He’s a fraud and I highly doubt he is interested in a deal.