Trump: If you take the Palestinians, and move them around to different countries and you have plenty of countries that will do that, and you have a freedom zone… I don’t understand why Israel ever gave it up. Israel owned it. They took ocean front property pic.twitter.com/aY3fwMHcWG
— Acyn (@Acyn) April 7, 2025
Yesterday, Bibi Netanyahu was treated to a brofest with Donald Trump at the White House. The president droned on like an imbecile about Gaza (see video). But what struck me was an announcement today that the US would begin “direct” talks with Iran toward a renewed nuclear deal. Trump called the negotiations “direct,” but I doubt he even understands the meaning of the term. He probably thinks that because the two parties will be in physical proximity, that means they’re direct.
Iran, however, has made clear it has no interest in true direct talks. It doesn’t trust Trump or his chosen negotiator, Steve Witkoff. So why would it agree to meet with them directly? Various pro-Israel “experts” and media outlets have trumpeted any agreement as a near-capitulation by the Iranians who, they claim, have been humiliated throughout the region by Israeli attacks directly on Iran and on its proxies, including Bashar al-Assad, Hezbollah and the Houthis. If one believes such sources, Iran is desperate to make a deal to preserve what little power it has remaining.
To all of which I say: no so fast. Israel certainly has a larger arsenal and military capabilities than Iran. Such an attack would undoubtedly do significant damage to its military and nuclear infrastructure. But no attack will eliminate the will of the Iranian people to defend their nation. Nor will it succeed in destroying Iran’s nuclear program. It will survive in one form or another. At most it will be damaged. But it cannot be eliminated.
Iran is right to be skeptical going into these bilateral talks. Not only is Trump an erratic, untrustworthy interlocutor, it’s never clear what his real objectives are. Nor is it clear he knows. His interests are as erratic as his public statements and personality. Trump has said that his goal is to ensure Iran never develops a nuclear weapon. But what does that entail? Does Trump himself know?
The Iranians will not give up the nuclear program cheaply, if at all. They see what happens to states like North Korea, which maintains such weapons and threatens to use them, and to states which give them up (Ukraine, Libya). Without an ironclad security guarantee, Iran will be loathe to eliminate the one weapon which guarantees its survival.
Going into the talks, Trump sees two possible outcomes. If they fail, then he can approve an Israeli attack on Iran, possibly with US military participation. He has, in effect, issued such a threat several times over the past months. If the talks succeed, the president has bragging rights to yet another historic Middle East achievement similar to the Abraham Accords. Trump, as a malignant narcissist, needs to feed his ego. He’s the biggest, the best. Such a deal will be a crowning achievement.
Either way, Trump wins. If he attacks Iran with Israel, anti-Iran hawks in both parties will lionize him. If he gets a deal, he puts himself (in his mind) in the running for a Nobel Peace Prize. Not to mention, all of this diplomatic maneuvering distracts from the domestic and global tariff disaster; along with the consternation of the American people at the dismantling of the entire federal government.
This is almost certainly what Trump and Netanyahu discussed yesterday in the Oval Office. Trump likely told him him that if the talks fail, he will attack Iran. My bet is that Trump believes they will fail. Netanyahu certainly wants that as well. This also guarantees that outcome.
If Netanyahu believed there was any possibility they would succeed, he would be railing against the president. His silence bespeaks his expectation that Israel will be attacking Iran in the near future.
Like Trump, the Israeli prime minister is a narcissist with grandiose visions of his own greatness. In his mind, he has achieved things no Israeli leader before him has done: Arab states have recognized Israel; Hamas and Hezbollah have been decimated; Gaza is on the brink of full ethnic cleansing. Everywhere he turns he sees his greatness. But the final jewel in his kingly crown will be a massive assault on Israel’s chief enemy, Iran. Hundreds of fully-armed war planes mounting massive strikes on key targets of the state: military, nuclear, political, etc. Video images of explosions as missiles strike their targets. Pictures of US and Israeli war planes jointly mounting the assault.
Over decades, he has turned Iran into Israel’s bête noir. A great, threatening ogre seeking the destruction of Israel and the Jewish people. Now, he becomes David facing the great Goliath, the savior of his people. He is the indispensable man without whom the nation will face catastrophe.
The particular danger of such grandiosity lies not just in Netanyahu’s megalomania, but Trump’s as well. The most powerful military force in the Middle East joins the most powerful military force in the world. The outcomes threatens to be disastrous.
Hopefully a delay strategy by Trump to openly keep “friend” Bibi at his side.
U.S. sends more THAAD and Patriot missile systems as threats from Iran and proxies escalate.
White House fires three (six all total) NSC staffers of Mike Waltz after president meets with far-right activist Laura Loomer … accused of being war hawks v. Iran
Arab states have refused to allow US planes to attack Iran from their territory
Six B-2 stealth bombers are now stationed on Diego Garcia
Russia replied Nyet to suggestion swap Ukrainian territory for looking away from attack on ally Iran
High risk a Houthi or Iranian wayward missile could drop on Aramco refinery, Riyadh, Doha, Dubai or Abu Dhabi … too much wealth at stake
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and alleged fatwa
The use of nuclear weapons is a “great sin”
https://farsi.khamenei.ir/speech-content?id=47392
… not its fabrication and possession.
For the first time, I hope you’re wrong,
@Rita: I would have no problem with being wrong in this case.
I totally agree. Netanyahu made Iran into the enemy. They obliged. Trump needed that to deflect from the issues at home. It worked and it is working… for Netanyahu not for Israel ultimately. Trump is using this conflict; he also needs it. He needs the Israel supporters here and deflection/distraction tactics.
“Over decades, he has turned Iran into Israel’s bête noir. A great, threatening ogre seeking the destruction of Israel and the Jewish people. Now, he becomes David facing the great Goliath, the savior of his people. He is the indispensable man without whom the nation will face catastrophe.”
There is no way Iran will sign a deal with Mr T – He screwed them over last time, big time!
Attacking Iran is opening a real “can of worms”!
Ron Paul has already come out against fighting in the Middle East, “President Trump: Stop Bombing Yemen and Exit the Middle East!” – https://ronpaulinstitute.org/president-trump-stop-bombing-yemen-and-exit-the-middle-east/
How much longer can the Muslim kings hold back their Muslim populations??? Yemen has already joined the fray
They may all have their quals with each other, but when it comes down to it – Muslim, Brother!
I agree with your analysis. This game of brinksmanship suits Netanyahu and Trump nicely as long as no actual attack happens. It’s well known that Israel could never carry out an attack or against Iran on its own and wants to draw the U.S. in possibly even trying to the U.s. to attack Iran for them. Once such an atack actually happens, all bets will be off b/c even though the U.US/Israel have the ability to hurt Iran, the Iranians have the capacity to hit back. And hard!