Trump-Iran Deal That Was, Then Wasn’t, and May Never Be

We thought we had a deal. Trump announced that a Memo of Understanding had been “largely negotiated” and “coming along nicely.”  Each of these saccharine phrases set off my bullshit meter.  We know never to trust a word out of his mouth.  As they say in Hebrew: liar, son of a liar. Nevertheless, we wanted it to be true. Of course, we were meant to be disappointed.

It started promisingly enough.  After his Truth Social post (see screenshot), officials said signing of a Memorandum of Understanding was imminent. Perhaps as soon as this weekend.

The president hosted a phone conference with a Who’s Who of regional Arab leaders, who were pleased with what they heard.  Especially considering that a number of them had borne the brunt of Iranian missiles fired in retaliation for a war of aggression he and Bibi Netanyahu had forced on them.

But they were undoubtedly taken aback by Trump’s demand that, in return for the favor he’d done them by ending the war, they should all join the Abraham Accords, and normalize relations with Israel.  This was met with stunned silence.  They were even more shocked when he mused that some day Iran too might join the club.

They’d just finished weeks of punishing attacks by Iran on their critical infrastructure. Attacks that were in retaliation for the US-Israeli assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei and much of its senior military and political leadership, along with the devastation wrought in Tehran and other Iranian cities.    Now Trump was calling for them all to “join the party.”

In what universe is this a reasonable proposition? The man has no clue about Middle Eastern reality.  Why should he?  Why does he need to know anything about the region?  The result of such delusional thinking, of course is disastrous wars like the one in which he’s currently embroiled.

No sooner did US officials promise an announcement than they had to walk it back.  Why? Because after speaking to Arab leaders, Trump made a call to Bibi Netanyahu. He, understandably was apoplectic.  One of the White House staff said Bibi’s “hair was on fire.”   He told the president that if the deal was implemented Israel would ignore it. Fighting in Lebanon (which had never stopped despite a supposed ceasefire) would resume with a vengeance.  Israel would destroy everything still left standing from its prior attacks.

This is his modus operandi regarding the US.  He commits to an agreement, then turns around and does whatever the hell he wants.  When people notice he’s violating his own commitment, he shrugs it off with a defiant wave of the hand.  When forced to commit to a deal he dislikes, he chips away at it until it’s reduced from a rock to a pebble.  This is an approach he perfected over decades in manipulating five US presidents.  It’s his plan for the current peace deal as well.

No doubt, Netanyahu activated the Israel Lobby, Aipac in particular. They, in turn, would have sent out talking points to their bought-and-paid-for legislators, arguing against the Trump plan.  The same game plan they used unsuccessfully against JCPOA.  Will it work?  Very possibly. Trump now appears to be having cold feet. He suggests that the US doesn’t need to rush into a deal.  Marco Rubio now says the the MOU “could take a few days.”  This ain’t our first rodeo.  We know what it means–that this deal is as good as dead.  All that’s left is to give it a decent burial.  Though I suppose we can still hope, can’t we?

Trump proudly declares that the deal he’s worked out is far superior to Obama’s 2015 JCPOA.  The truth is otherwise:  JCPOA limited uranium enrichment to under 4% for the next 20 years. It transferred all enriched uranium from Iran to Russia.  It released billions of Iranian assets, but in phases.  It restricted the number of centrifuges, reducing Iran’s enrichment capacity. Obama never had to deal with the Strait of Hormuz since it remained open throughout the two years of talks.

Trump’s deal looks quite different: there is disagreement about its length. The US proposes 20 years and Iran, 15. As a result, this provision remains in limbo.  Trump has for months demanded restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile program.  Iran has refused and this too is not included in the proposal.  The MOU would release billions in Iranian assets immediately on implementation of the MOU (JCPOA did so in stages).  Though it would end hostilities throughout the region, Israel has already declared its defiance.  It will carry on its invasion and occupations of Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine.  Thus, there seems no doubt that Iran will respond in kind, which would weaken the agreement. Precisely what Netanyahu wants.

Trump’s peace plan is, as analysts have called it, a capitulation and humiliation.  Trump started (or was dragged into) a war with sky-high expectations: he would overthrow Ayatollah Khamenei, impose a western-friendly regime, dismantle the nuclear program, protect US allies, and destroy Iran’s military capabilities. After which it would be forced to sue for peace.  None of that happened. Iran is bloody but unbowed.  It is more defiant than ever, more radical than ever, and remains capable of inflicting considerable pain on US regional allies and the global economy.