Iran Struck Hundreds of US Military Assets, CIA Says It Can Fight for Months

Iranian satellite data, confirmed by US media, document far greater damage to US bases from Iranian attacks than previously known.  With all of Trump and Hegseth’s empty boasts about US military dominance, and the decimation of Iran’s military capabilities, US forces suffered far more damage than was acknowledged.

Prior media reporting focussed on individual strikes against US facilities, but did not capture a comprehensive damage assessment.

Conversely, even after intensive, repeated air attacks by both the Israeli and American war planes, Iran retains an extensive weapons inventory, far larger than the US has acknowledged publicly:

U.S. intelligence and military…officials said that Iran has about 40 percent of its prewar arsenal of drones. Those drones have proved to be a powerful deterrent. While they are easily shot down by American warships, commercial tankers have few defenses.

Iran also has ample supplies of missiles and missile launchers. At the time of the cease-fire, Iran had access to about half its missile launchers. In the days that immediately followed, it dug out about 100 systems that had been buried inside caves and bunkers, bringing its stockpile of launchers back up to about 60 percent of its prewar level.

…Iran is also digging out its supply of missiles, similarly buried in rubble from American attacks on its bunkers and depots. When that work is done, Iran could reclaim as much as 70 percent of its prewar arsenal, according to some American estimates.

Another US official added:

…The…regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began.

Other reports indicate the US has exhausted much of its missile inventory in those attacks, leaving it vulnerable in a potential conflict with China or other adversaries.  Nor can the former adequately replenish that supply considering the extended production timeline.  Leaks of this information to the NY Times and Washington Post indicate extensive opposition within military-intelligence circles to Trump’s forever war against Iran.

Another unforeseen consequence of Trump’s failed war is that instead of toppling the Iranian regime, replacing it with a pro-western government, and eliminating its nuclear program; it retains political power and its nuclear facilities. This mission failure will deter any future military attempts at regime change.  Knowing what they know now, neither US military planners nor the Gulf States, which have borne the burden of Iranian retaliation, should permit this misadventure to recur.

A military campaign using solely air assault is destined to fail.  Only a boots-on-the ground invasion and occupation of the country could ensure regime change.  But even this would be impossible, given the enormous territorial expanse and 93-million population.  Either the US and western states come to terms with Iran and negotiate a modus vivendi; or they maintain an uneasy coexistence with continuing mistrust and lack of resolution of outstanding issues, but without military threats.  Those are the only viable options, with the first being far preferable.

Iran’s economy and military capabilities far more robust than US believed

The CIA did an analysis of the capacity of Iran’s economy to withstand the enormous financial blows it’s facing.  Contrary to Trump’s claims and despite these severe impacts, it is not on its knees.  In fact, it could fight on for months before it faced full-blown economic crisis:

A confidential CIA analysis delivered to administration policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship…a finding that…raises new questions about President Donald Trump’s optimism on ending the war.

…One of the U.S. officials who spoke to The Washington Post said they thought Iran’s capacity to endure prolonged economic hardship is far greater than even the CIA estimate...“Comparatively, you see similar regimes lasting years under sustained embargoes and airpower-only wars.”

…the CIA estimate says Iran can survive the U.S. blockade for 90 to 120 days — and maybe longer — before facing more severe economic hardship, the four people familiar with it said.

One of the bitter ironies of this debacle is that Trump has offered Iran a current peace proposal that mirrors the JCPOA nuclear deal which he cancelled in 2018.  Now, after years of hostility and two extensive attacks on its military infrastructure, including nuclear facilities, there is little to show for it.  The ultimate outcome may be similar to the original deal Trump railed against before abrogating it. Under his proposal:

Iran would agree not to develop a nuclear weapon [it has already done so] and halt enrichment of uranium for at least 12 years, it said.

The US would lift sanctions and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets, and both sides, which have imposed competing blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, would reopen the critical waterway within 30 days of signing.

If Iran accepts the US plan, which is by no means guaranteed, it will only end the current hostilities and offer sanctions relief to Iran.  It will not address ballistic missiles, or support for regional allies.  Nor will it deal with Iran’s current uranium stockpile, which the US earlier proposed be shipped to the US or a third country. These were key goals at the start of the war in February.

In a recent analysis, Trita Parsi echoes my belief that you can only fail so many times before the rest of the world begins to view you as weak and vulnerable.  That leads to a swift decline in respect and credibility.  No longer will the US be the sole superpower. It already shares that title with China, with the possibility that the latter will surpass it economically and militarily; if not now, in the not too distant future.

The great world empires have invariably faltered when they overextended themselves, out of an exaggerated sense of their own power and capacities.  The Iran war is Exhibit A as supporting evidence.  The US is entering that phase.  Even if national leadership changes dramatically in elections in 2026 and 2028, the decline has commenced and will not be easily halted.

One of most damning proofs of hubris is the vacillation and confusion with which Trump has conducted the war: the threats of annihilation, the return to negotiation, cutting off such talks, demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, failure to break Iran’s blockade, followed by Project Freedom–a failed attempt to force reopening through military force.  All of this signals to Iran and the rest of the world that the US has become a paper tiger.  While its military retains the world’s most advanced weaponry and highly skilled personnel, it simply can’t do the job assigned to it.

In order to achieve their interests, states must use a carefully-calibrated combination of force and diplomacy.  Tilting too far toward one or the other pole is ultimately disastrous. That’s where the US is now. Military force is Trump’s first resort.  He doesn’t understand or believe in diplomacy. Without that, you rely on fear and threats in relations with foreign states.  That only takes you so far, until you come face-to-face with your own limitations.  Then you face a downhill slide.

Offering bloated claims and lies about successes in the war, fools no one: not the American people, the Iranians, nor the world.  It only makes you appear weak.

It’s extraordinary that not only has Iran maximized its capabilities to inflict pain, despite America’s vaunted air defenses, it has managed to do far more damage to US assets in the region than previously known.  It has successfully struck 228 bases throughout the region, with targets as far away as Jordan:

Iranian airstrikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment atU.S. military sites across the Middle East since the war began, hitting hangars, barracks,fuel depots, aircraft and key radar, communications and air defense equipment, according to a Washington Post analysis of satellite imagery. The amount of destruction is far larger than what has been publicly acknowledged by the U.S. government or previously reported.

These strikes exposed weaknesses of the US air defense system.  They resulted in the deaths of 7 US soldiers in a poorly protected facility in Kuwait.  Entire bases have been evacuated because personnel was deemed too vulnerable to attack. All this, once again, documents the misguided assumptions on which US military strategy is based. In addition, US military planners did not account for the limitations of their missile inventory:

According to an estimate from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the military used at least 190 THAAD interceptors and 1,060 Patriot interceptors between Feb. 28 and April 8, representing 53 percent and 43 percent of their prewar inventories, respectively.

The most advanced military in the world cannot project how much weaponry it’s using in order to retain the ability to fight a prolonged conflict?  How is that possible?  The US has developed unparalleled advanced weapons technology. Yet it cannot prevent a cheap drone from inflicting major damage on military assets:

…The damage at the sites suggested that the U.S. military had underestimated Iran’s targeting abilities, not adapted sufficiently to modern drone warfare and left some bases under-protected.

…Iranian forces have been more resilient than the Trump administration may have anticipated…Plans to destroy Iran’s missile and drone forces fast enough to prevent them from inflicting serious damage underestimated “the depth of Iran’s pre-positioned targeting intelligence on fixed U.S. infrastructure.”

The Washington Post offered an inventory of the damage:

The attacks hit a satellite communications site at al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Patriot missile defense equipment at Riffa and Isa air bases in Bahrain and Ali al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait, a satellite dish at the Naval Support Activity Bahrain — which serves as the headquarters of the U.S. 5th Fleet — apower plant at Camp Buehring in Kuwait and five fuel storage bladder sites across three bases.

The Iranian imagery also documented…damage or destruction of radomes at Camp Arifjan and Ali al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait, and at the 5th Fleet headquarters; Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense radars and equipment at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan and two sites in the United Arab Emirates; a second satellite communications site at al-Udeid Air Base, and an E-3 Sentry command and control aircraft and a refueling tanker at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.