Trump’s Iran Strategy is a Shambles

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Trump to the American people (with a nod to Shakespeare): How have I failed thee? Let me count the ways.

Last night’s White House speech (video) raised serious doubts regarding whether Pres. Trump knows what he’s doing; and whether he understands the status of the war he began. Touted as a major policy statement about his plans for the future of the conflict, he nattered on and on, harping on the same few points repeatedly: Iran was a few days away from having a nuclear weapon (it wasn’t); its ballistic missiles soon would be able to strike the US mainland (they won’t); he would leave the problem of the Strait of Hormuz to everyone who stiffed him when he summoned them to break the Iranian siege (will he?).

The best he could offer of substance was that the US would bomb Iran severely over the “next two to three weeks.” The implication seemed to be that he would withdraw after that and leave the theater to his ungrateful erstwhile “allies.” But then again, there are thousands of US troops deployed to the Gulf and Trump may have yet another trick up his sleeve. Though, given the horrendous impact of the war on the global economy (and his political fortunes), it’s hard to believe he wants to add yet another shock to the system.

Trump is that strange thing in a politician. Someone whose agenda is failing but who, instead of stepping back or readjusting to changed circumstances, puts the pedal to the metal, speeding down the highway to a crash.

I can understand the megalomania, the narcissism. That’s why he’s the horror show of a human being he is. But politicians, to be successful, must be adaptable. When, as Dylan sang, the “winds of changes shift,” you shift with them.

But Trump is frozen. He can only babble, repeating the same tired sound bites over and over. There is no change. He can’t. Even if he could, he wouldn’t because it would mean admitting he was wrong. And people would see he was wrong. That would be the worst thing of all. As a result, he will be the last man on the Titanic as it sinks beneath the waves.

This speech marked a decisive moment in the process of dissolution of the Trump presidency. It’s the moment when not only his opponents, but a significant number of his supporters realized the jig was up. They could see with their own eyes and hear with their own ears that the president was going down and taking much of the Republican Party along with him.

The “winning” strategy

As the war began, US and Israel officials trumpeted their “winning” strategy called “decapitation.” In other words, they would strike savage blows against the political and military leadership, eliminating scores of the top figures. Thus decapitating the command and control network which ran the country. Combining that with the weeks of earlier civil unrest protesting the government’s mishandling of the economy and social needs, they predicted this would strike a hammer blow to Iran’s clerical regime. Once toppled, another government, more pliant and aligned with western interests, would renounce Iran’s alliances with regional proxies and dismantle its nuclear program. At least, that was the plan…

Now the hopes of Reza Pahlavi to become Shah 2.0, have been dashed. Every day Iran continues to resist, his chances of returning to the Peacock Throne recede. Along with them, Israel’s plan to install a Quisling prince remains frustrated.

The failure of this plan proves that any change in Iran’s government cannot be imposed from outside. It can only happen through political processes within the country. Only Iranians can determine who will govern them. Iran is a country of 90-million people, the size of the state of Alaska. It cannot be conquered, it cannot be co-opted, it cannot be coerced, no matter how much force is employed.

Though it’s not accurate to claim, as some observers do, that Bibi Netanyahu “dragged” Trump into the war (he willingly joined it after seven White House visits and scores of phone calls), he was misled by the Israeli leader about how easy it would be to achieve those goals. Trump, the ultimate con artist, met a fellow conman who outsmarted him. It doesn’t reflect well on someone who prides himself exploiting every possible means of advancing his self-interest.

Trump’s War: going off the rails

Weaknesses have grown in the US-Israeli military campaign. While it has seriously degraded Iran’s military capabilities and struck a blow to the military-political echelon, it has not subdued Iranian resistance. The latter has struck targets throughout the region, including Israel. Missiles have struck Tel Aviv and Dimona, setting on fire a chemical plan there. Recently, one of its ballistic missiles destroyed a $270-million AWACs plane at a Saudi airbase.

The US has drained an enormous amount of its most advanced weaponry, including Tomahawks and anti-missile interceptors, from its inventory. This has even raised concerns in the Pentagon, that it exposes a weakened military posture in East Asia, where we face OUR MAjor rival, China.

Iran’s allies have also joined the battle. Hezbollah has rained down missiles on northern Israel. As a result, the IDF has now invaded Lebanon up to the Zahrani river, 14% of the country’s overall territory. It claims it has seized it in order to prevent Hezbollah rockets from reaching Israel. However, this has not prevented the rocket fire. And now the IDF has to defend against Hezbollah fighters taking on its own troops (four have been killed, including a captain). This is a quagmire it has faced before, losing hundreds of soldiers before it finally withdrew from Lebanon in 2000.

Iran has unleashed yet another weapon: the Houthis. The latter have withheld their arsenal until now. But over the last two weeks, they’ve begun firing missiles at Israel from their strategic choke point, the Bab Al Mandab Strait. Though both were intercepted, it adds a new front in this war and makes strategic calculations ever more complex. Israel’s leaders have boasted they could fight a seven-front war. But it appear challenging to fight even a two-front war.

Israel and the US claim they are intercepting 90% of the missiles launched. Even if this figure is accurate, 10% have succeeded in eluding air defenses.

There is evidence that stocks of US interceptors are running low in both the US and Israeli inventory. They cannot be quickly replaced with new stock. This increases the likelihood Iran’s weapons will strike their targets. Considering the false promises offered by Trump and Netanyahu of making quick work of Iran, it is putting up fierce resistance and will not be subdued any time soon, if ever.

The Strait of Hormuz is the rock on which the US-Israeli war machine has foundered. Trump and his generals made a huge miscalculation in discounting the role that it would play. They seemed totally unprepared for what seemed an obvious card the Iranians would play. Now, much of the world’s oil is blocked and cannot reach its global market. The world’s economies are faltering. Populations have grown restive without heating or cooking oil. Industrial plants have become idled. Agriculture is hobbked. Inflation nearly doubled in some countries. Stock markets are cratering.

Predictably, Trump launched the war without consulting anyone–either in Congress or among US traditional allies. As a result, there was no effort to encourage “buy-in” from them. Now, there is more widespread opposition to the war than any other previous US conflict. Similarly, when Trump turned to NATO and European allies for help in breaking the Iranian’s blockade, they told him to take a hike. This was Trump’s war, not theirs. They were under no obligation to put their forces in harm’s way in order to get him out of a jam he created.

The Pope, the Jews, and even some Israelis hate the war

The bombast of US officials like Pete Hegseth has only made things worse. When he prayed publicly:

“Let every round find its mark against the enemies of righteousness and our great nation…Give them wisdom in every decision, endurance for the trial ahead, unbreakable unity, and overwhelming violence of action against those who deserve no mercy.”

Though most Americans support the military, this Christian nationalist bilge was a bridge too far. Even religious leaders were outraged. Pope Leo XIV spoke before thousands of gathered worshipers. His remarks were a pointed rebuke of Hegseth and by extension, the Trump-Netanyahu war:

God refuses the prayers of leaders who have hands full of blood. This is our God: Jesus, King of Peace, who rejects war, whom no one can use to justify war,” Leo said to thousands of people attending his Palm Sunday mass at St. Peter’s Square. “He does not listen to the prayers of those who wage war, but rejects them.”

Presumably, the Pope more likely has God’s ear than a two-bit martinet like Hegseth. Leo’s pronouncements as leader of the world’s Catholics will hold sway over hundreds of millions of the faithful. It is yet another gathering cloud of opposition to the bloodbath Trump and Netanyahu have inflicted on Iran and the world.

American Jews–just as Americans in general–hold unfavorable views (60% of Jews, 66% of Americans) of the war. 66% view Netanyahu unfavorably. 56% of all Americans believe the war benefits Israel more than the US. A plurality of voters (43%) believe Israel has too much influence on US foreign policy (Aipac, take notice).

Opposition has even arisen in some unlikely places. In Israel, where an overwhelming majority of the people support the war because they’ve been sold a bill of goods about the “existential threat” Iran poses, cries of protest have been heard. Despite the thuggery of Israeli police directed by their Judeo-Nazi boss, Itamar Ben Gvir, demonstrations occurred in Israel’s three largest cities (Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Haifa) along with other smaller communities. They march under the slogan: “No to forever wars and regime change.” While they may represent a small number of Israelis, this is how opposition to previous wars has developed. The brave and courageous take up the call and others eventually follow.

Despite a traditional patriotic response to this war–its instigator, Netanyahu, is widely unpopular. Thus, support for the war is likely to prove evanescent. If it continues much longer, and the death toll (currently 20 dead) continues to rise, we will see much wider protests and a groundswell of opposition.