Iran: Trump’s Fatal Miscalculation

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Trump better end this war–and right quick.  Promising a short war, obliterating the Iranian regime, “decapitating” its leaders, fomenting an armed rebellion and installing a collaborationist strongman; he’s now faced with a long drawn-out war, sucking in our unwilling Gulf allies, and throttling global oil supplies. He faces a resilient, if bloodied Iran: resistant and unrelenting.  A nation which will not go down without a fight.  A people willing to face US-Israel military might unbowed. Instead of the massive public uprising like what Iran saw in January, the war has unified the country against the US and Israel. It has destroyed any momentum toward regime change and strengthened the Iranian Republic.  Just the opposite of what Trump intended when he told its to rise up and take back their country.

This is a fight Trump can’t win, though he doesn’t seem to know that yet.  He was dragged into the war by Bibi Netanyahu. It’s been the latter’s brainchild for years, during which he failed to persuade multiple presidents (Bush, Obama) to join him in his folly.  The Israeli leader flattered Trump’s ego, promising him victory and glory as they bestrode the defeated Iranian colossus.  It hasn’t turned out that way.

What has the Israeli leader offered instead?  Destruction of ancient Iranian mosques, attacks on Iran’s major oil field accompanied by huge spikes in oil prices, followed by Iranian retaliatory strikes on Qatari energy infrastructure.  All of which further erodes what little support there is in the US for this war of aggression. It explains why Trump was forced to scold Israel and promise it would not engage in such attacks in the future.  Certainly putting a crimp in Israel’s battle plans.  But this doesn’t conceal the fact that the US was dragged (willingly) into this war.  The most powerful global power led by the nose into a war the American people don’t want.

Then there’s this delusional Nowruz greeting from Netanyahu in which he urges Iranians to celebrate the holiday and encourage their “bravery,” while ominously warning “we’re watching from above.” It’s meant as encouragement but sounds more like a threat:

I’m here with Israel’s Defense Minister, our Chief of Staff, the head of the Mossad, the Chief of Air Force, our senior commanders. In the past 24 hours, we knocked out two of the terrorist chieftains, the top terrorist chieftains of this tyranny.

Our aircraft are hitting the… pic.twitter.com/lFJKEMvgxR

— Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) March 17, 2026

Netanyahu’s assassination strategy is based in large part on decapitation: target the entire political and military leadership and eliminate it in one fell swoop.  The result would be internal chaos, loss of command and control, and disintegration of organized resistance.  It has pursued this policy over many years against Fatah, Syria, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran itself.  It failed in every case but one, Fatah.  Otherwise, none have capitulated. None have lost their ability and will to resist.  Though they’ve all been battered by Israel’s blows. They still retain their ability to fight.

Proof lies in Lebanon where, after killing much of Hezbollah’s senior leadership over the past year, it still has rained missiles down upon northern Israel.  Even a relentless pounding of Beirut and threats to reduce it to rubble as it did in Gaza, have not quelled the rockets.

Iran, in particular, is inured to this strategy.  Besides embedding itself in every aspect of Iran’s economy, political structure, and society, the Iranian clerical system has built decentralization as a major feature. You can kill the Grand Ayatollah. You can kill the intelligence minister. You can kill a score of generals.  But you cannot kill an entire state, nor a political-religious system.

Even if we assume Israel’s intent wasn’t to topple the regime, but rather to transform Iran into an ungovernable, disunited set of ethnic groups beset by turmoil, that too will not work.  Despite adversity, despite an existential threat, Iran will not turn into Lebanon with sectarian factions vying for power.  It will retain its coherence despite such vain attempts.

Not only are there numerous figures lined up to replace those who fall, but every military unit can function independently if necessary.  They have trained for precisely the sort of war Israel-US is waging.  They created a strategy of hybrid warfare relying on missiles and drones.  There are hundreds of thousands of the latter distributed throughout the country.  As soon as you eliminate one or ten or one-hundred, another drone operator springs up somewhere else.  No amount of Hellfire missiles or bunker buster bombs can take out all of them.  In all this, Iran’s military strategists are far ahead of the US-Israel strategy, which seems to be to pound Iran into submission.

Despite the massive armada armed with the most advanced weaponry known on earth, they cannot kill them all.  Pounding a nation of 90-million people and a military of 1-million soldiers is a lot more difficult than they imagined.

Trump and the US military made another miscalculation. They didn’t take into account Iran’s willingness to drag the Gulf states into the war.  The latter’s alliance with the US, along with the major US bases on their territory, made them an obvious target.  Despite a massive American effort to protect them with missile defenses, Iran has showered its targets with drones and some have succeeded in striking the bases.  The result has been a realization by the rulers that the US is not the guarantor of stability it promised to be.  A miscalculation of this magnitude could throw the Gulf regimes into chaos, and threaten their existence.  This war has shown them that the US has an Achilles heel.

Perhaps the key point of contention, and the place where the war will be lost or won, is the Strait of Hormuz.  With a steady stream of rockets and drones Iran has effectively closed the waterway to global shipping. Thus 20% of the world’s oil sits on ships which can’t go anywhere.  Energy prices are mounting. Countries are clamoring for gas for cooking , oil to heat their homes, and energy to fuel their factories.

Trump has issued a demand that US allies must come to his aid and reopen the Strait.  They must, he says, offer their naval vessels to remove the mines and end the blockade.  He reasons that the oil shipped is far more critical to their countries than our own.  It hasn’t worked.  No one has answered the call. No leader wants to see his or her ship burning in the Gulf after an Iranian missile strike.

Even Trump’s military commanders are loath to take on the job alone.  Which offers the strange dichotomy of Trump administration figures promising to open the Strait, while the navy stands mute and unresponsive. Just who is running the ship?

Trump’s war is one of the most unpopular in American history.  Just before it began nearly 60% of Americans opposed it.  Now, three weeks into the conflict a majority (50%) still do.  The president’s approval ratings have hit the floor (56% disapprove).

Mid-term elections are almost always a referendum on the sitting president, rather than his Congressional party (which itself earns a 29% approval rating).  But besides a threat to his political power, the real victim will be to the Congressional caucus. Unless he issues a course correction, he may lead his Party to one of the worst mid-term drubbings in US history. That would include a loss of the House majority, and possibly the Senate as well.

Though he is far and away the dumbest president in US history, he understands one thing: self-preservation.  If he perceives an insurmountable obstacle which threatens his existence, he usually backs down.  But is he smart enough to recognize this?  Will he send the ships home and declare victory? Or will he plow ahead like the Titanic, straight into the iceberg?