A few days ago, Yemeni Houthis mounted a precisely-coordinated and complex attack on the arriving Saudi-sponsored cabinet at the Aden airport. The government had announced the arrival with great fanfare as TV cameras rolled to capture the success. The cabinet had been appointed after complex negotiations between two factions (one sponsored by the Saudis and the other by UAE); it had also been forced to shelter in Saudi Arabia for considerable time because it was deemed to dangerous for it to return to Yemen.
Though the attack received some foreign media coverage, there has been little appreciation of the greater implications. The operation involved Houthi drones and missiles striking the tarmac and passenger lounge with devastating effect. 20 were killed and 50 were injured. None of the senior cabinet members died, though several of their junior colleagues did. There were even drones detected at the presidential palace, where the surviving delegation members had taken shelter.
This indicates the scope and capability of the Houthi. They are able to penetrate into the inner sanctum of the enemy and disrupt its most critical functions. It further indicates the abject failure of the Saudi sponsors who have rained terror down on the heads of Yemenis for years, to little effect. They and their allies have no more control over the country than they did when hostilities started.
Though the Houthis, are usually called “rebels,” in fact Yemen has been warring between northern and southern factions for decades. After Britain left Aden, the country was riven by civil war in which the Houthi fought on the side of the Imam (King) who hailed from the north; against a southern faction led by officers who were supported by Britain and Egypt. That country’s leader, Nasser sent 70,000 troops to fight there (a third of his entire army) and it became known as Egypt’s Vietnam.” Today it is Saudi Arabia’s Vietnam.
Much is made of the fact that the Houthi are supported by Iran. Trump, Netanyahu and others routinely accuse Iran of fomenting strife in order to extend their Islamic revolution all the way to Saudi Arabia’s doorstep. This, of course, ignores the fact that outside powers going back to the initial civil war, have interfered in Yemen’s internal affairs and stoked the violence. If anyone has intervened with malign intent it is Saudi Arabia, whose forces have killed tens of thousands of civilians and laid siege to the ports causing massive famine.
Donald Trump has enjoyed an obsequious relationship with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, acceding to his every wish: pouring weapons into the kingdom, excusing the dismemberment-murder of journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, and supporting his war on Yemen. He also ordered the assassination of Iran’s leading military commander, Qassem Soleimani, which undoubtedly pleased Saudi Arabia immensely.
Congress has disagreed strongly with his approach, but done little to stop it. During the presidential campaign, Joe Biden and his Secretary of State-designate, Tony Blinken, have made clear that they oppose Saudi adventurism. They have not announced whether they would cut off arms sales, which fuel the bloodshed. But given that Congress already leans in that direction, it’s a pretty good bet they will. Biden has also committed the U.S. to return to the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by his former boss, Barack Obama.
All of this is complicated by the fact that Iran has endured a series of humiliations at the hands of Trump and Netanyahu, who murdered not only Soleimani, but Iran’s leading nuclear scientist. Like any nation, Iranians are a proud people who will not stand for such disrespect. So far, Iran has responded in a calculated way, with its parliament directing the nuclear personnel to ramp up uranium enrichment from the current 4.5% to 20% (90% is needed to build a nuclear weapon). Foreign media are falsely reporting this development as a “provocation.” The real, and only provocation was Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement. Once he did so, Iran was under no obligation to honor its terms. The fact that it has withdrawn from those terms in carefully calculated and measured ways indicates far more restraint than Trump showed in his cavalier rejection.
As we come to the first anniversary of Soleimani’s murder, and the U.S. puffs out its chest by sending carrier task forces through the Strait of Hormuz and B-52 nuclear-capable bombers to within 60 miles of Iranian airspace, based on U.S. intelligence’s vague claim Iran may be planning a strike, we must consider what Iran will do. The attack in Aden is one response. A report in Haaretz noted that Iran and its proxies could mount similar attacks on U.S. and Israeli targets. Though it’s unlikely Iran would attack the U.S. as long as it believes Biden might ease or remove sanctions, Israel is another story.
It would be much more difficult for Iran, Hezbollah or its Iraqi militia allies to mount such an attack on Israel. But it’s not outside the realm of possibility. In Yemen, Iran’s allies enjoy uncontested control of territory from which such attacks may be mounted. In Lebanon and Syria, Israel has the capability of monitoring weapons convoys and missile placement; and of intervening to thwart any hostile operations. As a far more formidable military force than the Saudi army, Israel could mount a devastating response to such an attack against it. That is probably the only thing holding the Iranians back from doing so.
Israel has a “time-honored tradition” of interfering in the affairs of its frontline neighbors through invasion, sabotage, assassination, regime change, and occupation. It’s done so over the years in Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Syria, Palestine, Iraq, Iran, Sudan, and even Libya. Will Yemen be next? Will Israel answer a call from its Saudi ally to expand its reach southward to the Arabia peninsula? Will it be sucked into the quagmire as well?
Trump and Netanyahu are playing a dangerous game. They recklessly attacked vital Iranian interests assuming either that the Iranians couldn’t mount a serious blow in return; or hoping that they would do so, so that they could mount an even more devastating blow that would destroy its nuclear facilities or even facilitate regime change.
That is playing with fire. They were foolhardy to believe there was no chance that they would be burned. There is. And if the world thinks Saudi Arabia has wreaked a catastrophe in Yemen, that will be small potatoes compared to what could happen between Iran, Israel and the U.S. if the dogs of war are unleashed.
This is the first time I have ever read such a balanced piece an an Israeli blog. From my perspective its right on the money.
Bottom-line, Trump/Netanyahu etc. are really playing with fire, pursuing a “cowboy” type mentality and fundamentally non-productive, policies vis-a-vis Iran. It should be obvious to anyone reading the article, that Iran’s core strategy is asymmetric.Its almost like playing wack-a-mole. You hit in Syria, they pop up in Yemen, hit Yemen, they pop up in Lebanon. Hit Lebanon, they pop up in Iraq, etc. etc. So, ‘hitting’ is useless, a completely different (more sophisticated) strategy is required. And ‘hitting’, has polarized the situation, led to the rise of the hard liners in Iran, reinforced its proxies, forced Iran into alliances with others – made the situation even worse and more dangerous. And, most importantly, not only has it NOT worked, Iran’s mullahs have in fact become much stronger in the process (not weaker) – not just inside Iran, but across the region.
If diminishing the Tehran regime’s influence is the objective, then this would suggest that exactly ‘opposite’ policies would be much more effective. You get more bees with honey than a fly squatter!
But, I have a theory, what ‘they’ really want is for the Mullah regime to stay in place and become a bigger menace. It leads to arm sales, and Israelis being scared into voting for Netanyahu (it helps him politically), led to new relations with Arab states (UAE, KSA, etc. because of Iran being a ‘common’ enemy), etc.
Okay, but one day Iran will be irreversibly too strong (arguably today), and then its over. Really over! Iran has 2 million proxy militias in the region. A well healed, very experienced, well trained military. Contrast them to the rather over-weight, poor performing, pampered militaries in KSA, UAE etc. who haven’t been able to ‘beat’ a bunch of mountain dwelling sheep herders in Yemen. And let me just add that if Israel steps in to make up for these failing Arab militaries or regimes i.e. gets bogged down in Yemen, it will lose its eye on Israel itself i.e. make Israel itself very vulnerable. Its exactly what Iran and its proxies want. Its what their asymmetric strategy is for.
So now what? 40 years of stupid policies will blow back – one day. Iran was Israel’s best ally in the region once. Iranians actually defended and protected Jews throughout history and even during the Yom Kippur War. And all Israel has been doing is reinforcing the Mullahs at the expense of the Iranian people and eventually at the expense of Israel itself. Polarization only serves the Mullahs and undermines Israel. There must be normalization, peace, good relations … and by reinforcing and aligning with ordinary Iranian citizens… the days of the Mullahs regime’s death will be accelerated. Iranians will take care of them with their own hands, at the right time.
there will never be a conversation , it revolves basically at shia vs sunni
once you’ve taken sides you’re compromised
since the iran revolution israel has been on the sunni side so has the us
the iran peace agreement was the ugliest best way to square the circle of the religions
once you open the pandora’s box the sky is the limit.
the , “so now what” is the 40 cents question –
it is easy to destroy a pact and impose sanctions, there won’t be a regime change, saving political face is the name of the game
to restart an olive branch is always needed and within in a wording that both parties can brag as victory is on their side to pamper locals.
can anyone in trumps admin be called a communicator. one please
canon builders are a dime a dozen nations bridge builder not so much
Israel has a layered missile defense system that can prevent infiltration by drones and guided missiles.
https://www.defenseworld.net/news/28551#.X_HC39gzaUk
Israel can protect herself better because she is a small country, with smaller borders to watch.
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@ Sepp: Saudi Arabia has a “layered” missile defence system as well. It hasn’t stopped the Houthis from penetrating it. I suggest that neither you nor Israeli military planners be smug and presume that Israel’s defenses are impenetrable.
Israel is coming to that point where their arrogance will lead them to making the “ultimate” gamble and it will blow up in their face. America will pick up a number of the survivors, just like after Vietnam ended in fiasco, but many will end up in funny schools where they will spit on their former flag and have struggle sessions on the failures of their ruined former country. If not the schools, then endless rounds of beatings for captured police and IDF officers, then finally they will be Chikatilo’ed (execution by sudden shooting after walking down a hallway.) The smart Israeli is the “escaped” Israeli, people who will move elsewhere before the fiasco.
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Assassinations reached further than ME states of course.
“They’d been following him for months. They’d been monitoring his every move. Yet as he drove to his Brussels apartment on March 22nd, 1990, Dr. Gerald Vincent Bull (Canadian by birth) had no idea that tonight he was the target of a hit squad. It was definitely a complicated operation by a state intelligence organization and carried out by some 80 people, was outstretched for almost two years.”
While he was an asset to many governments, he was also a liability, and suspicion can fall on the CIA, MI6, Chilean, Syrian, South African, even Iraqi sources. Most suspicion however tends to fall on either Iran or Isreal both of which would fall within range of the super gun or improved missiles.
The murder was never solved and remains another mystery in the life of a mysterious man.
See link: Haaretz article and Yossi Melman solved that mystery: Mossad.
The Arab nations are lucrative allies of a sovereign Great Britain …
In July UK International Trade Secretary Liz Truss announced that new licenses will once again be issued to export arms to Riyadh, arguing, “There is not a clear risk that the export of arms and military equipment to Saudi Arabia might be used in the commission of a serious violation of IHL”
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dear sepp
i said it in previous message, no one will attack not via air or water or ground israel
that would give a clear thread as to who is the perpetrator and reason to continue the tit for tat
data is gold.
no further than this morning a cyber security co/ mentioned that in the last 3 months israel amongst other has seen a huge spike in hacking it is “mentioned” that iran may be the root, but again not quite sure.
several large companies in israel have been opened to blackmail. so what is cheaper waste huge monies in rockets and bombs or pay a fat guy sitting in the back of a mosque and hacking the heck out of israel water companies or insurance or banks. which would cause more damage.
why is russia building A new rocket while investing millions in hackers that have destroyed millions of american secrets, read the latest microsoft bulletin regarding the latest intrusion, they still dont know how far or deep.
i ask again why is everybody looking at the clouds to see if its going to rain while the toilets are being overflooded
those attacks still live in broken down countries or militias. because they do not have internet infrastructure, same in saudi their huge refineries are vulnerable as sitting ducks in the desert begging to be attacked, saudi economy is not worth attacking
the saudi riyal is pegged to usd ergo fake value, whereas shekel floats and is now one of the two most seeked strong currency, which is worth attacking again.
mullahs are not stupid they know where is the best value for the bang is
iraq is also broken country it doesnt count
2400 Died in Obama’s Assassination Program
Since Obama’s inauguration in 2009, the CIA has launched 330 strikes on Pakistan – his predecessor, President George Bush, conducted 51 strikes in four years. And in Yemen, Obama has opened a new front in the secret drone war.
Yemen Saada province: Al-Awlaki family targeted, 41 killed by US cruise missile strike includes 22 children – Dec. 23, 2009.
Acting SecDef Miller issued a new statement changing course on Sunday.
“Due to the recent threats issued by Iranian leaders against President Trump and other US government officials, I have ordered the USS Nimitz to halt its routine redeployment,” said the statement.
Who, other than Richard, claims the Houtis are responsible for this attack? No one.
Not the Saudis. Not the Yemen government. And not the Houtis, who’ve never been shy to claim responsibility for a successful attack.
By claiming, the Houtis are responsible, Richard deflects attention from other likely culprits such as disgruntled Yemeni government factions, and of course, deflect attention away from Iran.
@ Forrest:
Oh, I don’t know. Maybe the actual Yemeni prime minister whose cabinet was attacked? Maybe he blames the Houthi?
In your desperation to find a Gotcha, you got carried away with yourself. You’ve gotta bring your A game to this hasbara thing you’re doing. I’d say this a C-level game.
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