UPDATE: Yesterday, a Japanese oil tanker and another vessel were attacked in the Gulf of Oman. The Japanese ship is on fire apparently sabotaged by suspects unknown. Though the U.S. has been quick to blame Iran for the previous attack on several tankers in the past few weeks, it has offered little direct proof that its navy was responsible.
If this claim is true, it would indicate that the IRG has adopted the tactics of asymmetrical warfare employed by insurgent groups for centuries, if not millennia. When faced with an enemy possessing superior firepower, attacking discrete soft targets, harrying your enemy with a thousand paper cuts, is a classic strategy. It destabilizes without causing a direct confrontation. It forces your enemy to employ ever-increasing resources to defend his assets. It forces him to make a decision whether he wishes to match the escalation or determine that the price is not worth paying. In the case of a rash despot like MBS (or John Bolton), it provokes him into possibly making a rash decision which will expose his forces to peril, if not defeat.
This strategy is not without its dangers for the insurgent forces. They could provoke all-out war in which they could lose decisively. But it seems that the Houthis, and possibly Iran as well, feel they’re fighting on their regional home turf and defending their homeland and religious identity. Those are pretty strong motivators. While the Saudis are fighting a war of aggression, on another country’s battlefield, and doing so on behalf of a despotic tyrant. Those can carry you only so far in such an extended conflict.
During an interview on PressTV yesterday, the interviewer and another guest spoke extensively about the likelihood (in their view) of this being a false flag attack. While this is possible, it seems highly unlikely given everything we know so far. During my portion of the interview, I argued that these attacks are much more characteristic of guerilla warfare of an insurgent force fighting against a far stronger adversary. While this can be a dangerous tactic, it also may be the only possible response Iran can offer to the merciless international campaign to bring the nation to its knees financially, economically and militarily.
Today’s news report about Saudi outrage over a Houthi cruise missile attack against one of its major airports wins the Hypocrite of the Day award. The Saudis are in high dudgeon over the attack on their airport, which used missiles and technology that may have originated in Iran. This marks a major escalation in Houthi military power and technical expertise. The Saudis, you see, prefer their enemies weak and defenseless, subject to indiscriminate bombings offering no opportunity to resist or fight back. Now, the Yemeni resistance has proven that it is capable of carrying the fight to Saudi Arabia itself and, well, it enrages the young crown prince, known to the world as MBS.
By the way, as an aside, the world now knows where the mysterious $450-million purported Leonardo Da Vinci painting, Salvador Mundi is: on the crown prince’s super-yacht, the inaptly named, Serene. Let’s hope that a Houthi cruise missile doesn’t come crashing down and send MBS and his painting to the bottom of the sea.
Returning to the Houthis, Saudi Arabia can’t believe the effrontery of their enemies actually defending their homeland. It’s not supposed to be that way. But what really irks the House of Saud is the involvement of Iran in the conflict. According to an unwritten dictum, the Saudis are permitted to call themselves custodians of the holy places of Islam, to speak on behalf of the Muslim world, and to bully any fellow Arab or Muslim who stands in their way. But Iran, which also represents itself as a custodian of Shia Islam and its holy places, is something akin to a heretic.
I sometimes think of the Sunni-Shia split and wonder if Orthodox Judaism had its own army whether we non-Orthodox Jews would be treated the same way, given the hatred spewed by Israeli Orthodox rabbis against Reform, Conservative and Reconstructionist denominations.
Saudi anger at Iran is the height of hypocrisy. It is the Saudis who commenced the war in Yemen. Iran played no role in the conflict until the Shia Houthis faced starvation and slaughter at the hands of the Saudi air force. And as it has ratcheted up the conflict and the death count, so has Iranian involvement increased. Now, the Saudis are worried that these new cruise missiles have upwards of an 800-mile potential range, long enough to strike Riyadh or the UAE, another partner of the Saudis in this mayhem. A war starts to look different when you find instead of taking the battle to the enemy, he can strike and hurt you where you live.
Take a look at who has armed the Saudis and enabled this slaughter: Britain, France, the U.S., among others. And they have the gall to cry that Iran has imported its weapons into the theater of conflict? Trump has the chutzpah to say that Iran is behind all the acts of terrorism he knows about?
…Every single problem caused in the Middle East , and maybe beyond, but in the Middle East was caused by Iran. They were behind every single, we had 14 different attacks at one point, they were behind every attack.”
Really? What about the 85,000 starving Yemeni children? What about the Saudi-funded ISIS, which played a major role in the Syria slaughter? Or the 3,000 Muslims our drone strikes have killed over the past decade (including during the Obama presidency)? Not to mention the million Iraqis who died before, during and after two U.S. invasions of that country since 2003.
So let’s stop feigning outrage when Iran and the Houthis are playing the same game as the Saudis, and probably better.
Why do the dictator of Syria (20% awalawis) get iran’s Support and not the Yaman dictator?
@ Yoni Levy: Alawis are closely related to Shia, therefore the affinity between the Syrian Alawites and Iranian Shia.
Iranian missile struck Japanese tanker.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/iran-slams-us-calls-claims-of-tanker-attackseconomic-terrorism/2019/06/14/b94c1ece-8e16-11e9-b6f4-033356502dce_story.html?utm_term=.9c00e5faa9b2
@ Eunice Kearnes: that’s a lie. There are CLAIMS it was an Iranian missile by the U.S. and its allies. There is no proof whatsoever that this is what happened. There is circumstantial evidence. This may be what happened. But until incontrovertible proof is offered, this is but one among several theories.
Yoni
Alawites are a break off from Shia i.e. they drink wine and have diff texts than the Twelvers. They broke off from the name ‘Nusạyriyya” to ʿAlawiyy. Nusạyriyya was originally Ismai’li and they have a belief in some sort of ‘triad’ in the Godhead and were loners and not greatly accepted by the major trend Shia, the Twelvers.
In Yemen almost half are Zaidiyyah who broke off and do not believe in the infallibility of the Imans, a staple by the Twelvers
It may just break down to ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Maybe a little like Lebanon where the Islamic majority is Sunni but the Shia are in power.
In any event since the death of Mohamed they have called one another heretics and spilled a lot of blood along the way aside from destroying holy sites like Karbala, Basra and the like.
It seems in the end Iran would like to have regional hegemony which would include being the guardians of ‘Maccah’ which obviously worries the Saudis.
@ natasha: I find everything about this comment demeaning and offensive toward Islam in general and Shia Islam in particular. I put you on notice that your next comment rule violation will lead to moderation.
No, the Shia are not “in power” in Lebanon. Hezbollah is part of the government. But it does not control the government. There is a political power sharing agreement that has existed for decades and it shares power with other religious groupings in the country.
I don’t know who “they” is. If you mean Shia, most definitely not. The bombings of mosques in Karbala was an act of terror by Sunni Iraqi militants.
But regarding Muslims engaging in sectarian violence…that never happened among Jews in our history did it?? Except for the mass murder of Benjaminites portrayed in the Bible. And the assassinations by Sicarii of Temple priests and other Jewish notables they despised. And the declaration by Jacob Frank and Shabbtai Tzvi that they were the messiah. Not to mention Orthodox Jewish thugs leaving knives as threats outside Reform synagogues in Israel. Nope, no Jewish sectarianism whatsoever.
“Seems???” Seems to whom? To anyone other than you and the Iranophobes prowling the internet looking for reasons to go to war??
Major comment rule: you offer your own personal opinion about something; you offer credible proof that your claim is true. If you offer unfounded claims which are insulting toward ethnic or religious groups, I will moderate you.
“I find everything about this comment demeaning and offensive toward Islam in general and Shia Islam”
Actually you misinterpretated me to an extreme. Personally I am preferential to Shia over Sunni and have spent quite a few years studying their philosophical and metaphysical doctrines. I don’t think my observation about hegemony and al-Maccah is anything but obvious and given what is going on in the world the friction between the two divisions has in modern times become more ‘global’ because of the media available.
“the Shia are in power.”
Before the 2006 war they were a separate entity and not officially part of the government which limited Israel’s possible general attacks on the Lebanon. Now since they are officially part of the government if they choose to go to war they are representing Lebanon as a whole.
“they have called one another heretics and spilled a lot of blood along the way aside from destroying holy sites like Karbala, Basra and the like.”
I obviously meant it was the Sunni doing the specific destruction I mentioned.
“But regarding Muslims engaging in sectarian violence…that never happened among Jews in our history did it?? “etc.
Of course I am aware of that but not a the level of Sunni/Shia. 20-30 years ago in Williamsburg competing sects in Satmar ran over and killed a child of the opposing group. In the 1870’s some Chasidic Jew one killed a person on the way to Meron whom he believed to be the Shinover rebbe of Sanz-these things exist and always have existed. But an interesting point is that in the Tanach all these things were recorded and not deleted something you don’t find in the Quran and Hadith e.g. the Moslems consider Lot to be a saint whereas Jews don’t and to express this opinion is ‘kafir’; vide the interesting story in ספר גן השכלים edited by R. Yosef Kapach, one of the greatest Yemenite scholars of the 20th century.
“It seems in the end Iran would like to have regional hegemony”
So let me re-phrase it. Looking at the state of affairs between Sunni-Saudi and Iran one could justifiably reach the conclusion that Iran has an agenda for regional hegemony even if it has not been officially ‘chartered’ and published.
In as much as I have almost quotidian contact with Arabs whenever I mention Shia they always say ‘kufur’.Maybe it does not mean anything because the average Muslim doesn’t usually continue his religious education past 12-13 yrs. old as they usually go to work.
In addition to that there is not one Shia community in Israel today. About 50yrs ago there was one village on the Lebanese border that had good relations with Israel but I assume they either disbanded or joined a bigger community.
You can call me what you like but in truth I am much more an Islamophile than an Islamophobe.
What I said in my last post about the Alawites, they are considered kufur. They are only %11 of the Syrian population and since 2011, the time of the “Arab Spring”, which seems never happened, Assad killed over 500,000 of his fellow Arabs and probably wounded close to 1 million aside from destroying a number of very ancient sites just to remain in power. The Assad family is hardly democratic as there is basically only one candidate if and when they have elections.
Seeing that your are a scholar all these doctrinal things can be read in depth in Marshall Hodgson’s 3vol “Venture of Islam and his ‘Secret order of the Assassins ” and to trace back all the complex divisions of the Shia/Isma’lis Farhad Daftary’s “The Isma’lis” {all 800 pages of it} will dispel the misconceptions concerning the Alawites et al.
سلام
@ natasha:
No, I pinned you right on the money.
“Obvious” to you. But not to anyone else except Iranophobes and pro-Israel apologists.
Gimme a break. You’re an Israeli Jew pretending to be an expert on Islam. What a sham!
First, you falsely claim that Hezbollah and Lebanese Shia control the Lebanese government. Then you drop that claim, but add one that if there was a war between Israel and Hezbollah it would be a war against (and by) the State itself. A lie. Each time Israel invades Lebanon it fights Hezbollah and it alone. It never fights the Lebanese army and the entire Lebanese state and nation never participate.
I don’t know what you’re talking about. I lived in and grew up in NY. What you are probably referring to was a car accident in which a procession which included one of the grand rebbes struck and killed a Black child. This caused riots by the Black community and great hostility with the Hasidic sects in the neigbhorhood.
The Quran doesn’t discuss religious/political dissension within the pre-Muslim and Muslim world? Are you daft? Not to mention that the sectarian splits occurred after the Quran was written. So of course they’re not recorded there.
No, one couldn’t. Only you could and the other Iranophobes you frequent.
Where did you learn this? How the hell does an Israeli Jew like you blathering on about Islam claim to know what the average Muslim does or doesn’t do. Spare us the pontificating. It’s ignorant and offensive.
My ass.
Utter nonsense. While Assad is certainly a butcher, there are many butchers to blame. YOu conveniently omit ISIS and al Nusra which killed at least as many Syrians as Assad. As for the ancient sites: again, the Sunni Islamist fighters destroyed at least as many of them as Assad.
You are done in this thread. Do not publish again here. I have moderated you because everything about you is suspicious. I don’t trust you. I don’t know who you are. You certainly aren’t most of the things you claim to be. If you do publish in future, I will approve comments I don’t find offensive or violating the comment rules.
@Natasha
You said: “In addition to that there is not one Shia community in Israel today.”
Actually, there had once been a famous Ishmaeli shrine in Ashkelon.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-religion-israel-shi-ite/prophets-grandson-hussein-honored-on-grounds-of-israeli-hospital-idUSKBN0LD17720150209
https://www.google.com/search?q=imam+husayn+shrine+ali+ashkelon&client=safari&rls=en&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiIo_jHi_PiAhUDK1AKHderBVgQ_AUIECgB&biw=853&bih=441#imgrc=NOrc6U4t2Sx-AM:
P Spot
Yes, there were. At the time of the
Fatamids and after. There were probably many but the Ottomans were Sunni so one would have to do the research until its total dwindling to none at the present time.
But it seems more like legend that Ali died in Karbala and they took his head to Ashkelon.
There is something slightly similar in Judaism that Esau, brother of Jacob, head is buried in the Cave of the Patriarchs in Hebron at the feet of Jacob[if I remember correctly}