בישראל מבינים שמדובר באיתות חמור מצד איראן ולא בכדי בחרו לבצע את התקיפות. הפלת המטוס זו הצלחה כבירה לצד השני. גם אם יתברר כי המטוס נפל כתוצאה מתקלה טכנית הסורים והאיראנים זכו בהישג אדיר של הפלת מטוס קרב ישראלי. הטייסים בריאים בדרכם לבית חולים בצפון לבדיקות. @arutz20
— 🇮🇱 נועם אמיר (@noamamir74) February 10, 2018
I wrote that headline since, for the past two years or more, propagandists or spinmeisters wanted so badly to see Syria down an Israeli plane that, by now, they’ve downed half the Israeli air force. I can’t tell you how many times I had to tell people querying me on Twitter: no, no one shot down any Israeli plane.
Till today. The Syrians have done something they’ve never been able to do before despite scores of Israeli aerial attacks inside their territory. An Israeli F-16 was shot down by a Syrian air defense system within the past hour. The two pilots parachuted to safety and have been recovered by Israeli forces. However, Haaretz is reporting that one of the airmen was “severely injured.” The plane crashed in the lower Galilee, inside Israeli territory. I have not yet heard where the plane was located when the missile hit. If it was already inside Israeli territory then it will further exacerbate Israeli anger.
The entire incident was precipitated when Iranian forces flew an Iranian-manufactured drone (English language report) from Syria into Israeli-occupied territory. In response, Israel launched an air attack inside Syria on Iranian military positions. That is how we’ve come to this juncture.
This event tells us a few important things: first, that Syrian air defense has become much better than it’s been in the past; that Israeli counter-measures failed to jam Syrian air defense systems–a major technical failure; Syria could not have done this without the help of its Russian ally, who provides much of the air defense hardware the Syrians operate. Anshel Pfeffer has tweeted that Israeli is taking pains to point out the missile was “Syrian,” which means they seek to avoid dragging Russia into the mix. Even though the entire air defense system is Russian, including the missiles.
Israeli military sources are insisting that the missiles fired against IAF aircraft which shot down an F-16I was “definitely Syrian.” At this point looks like they are trying to contain fallout and make clear that Russian forces weren’t involved.
— Anshel Pfeffer (@AnshelPfeffer) February 10, 2018
My guess is that Israel plans on exacting massive retaliation on the Syrians and doesn’t want to have anyone ask: what about the Russians? Why don’t you make them pay a price too? Israel is terrific at pummeling countries (e.g. Gaza) which can’t put up much of a fight. But countries that could fight back and exact a stiff price? Not so much.
I’m unclear why the Israeli journalist who tweeted above in Hebrew credits Iran with this “achievement.” Though the drone was Iranian, it’s highly unlikely Iran had any hand in downing the plane. Further, the fact that RT was the first media outlet to report the story is no accident. RT reported it because Russian military and intelligence forces were among the first to know it had happened, I suspect.
As Netanyahu just returned from a visit to Russia to coordinate with Putin regarding Russian and Israeli operations in Syria, this could be Putin’s “Nyet” in response:
On a January 30 visit to Moscow, Putin at his side, Netanyahu said, “The most important thing I think is to make sure that we understand each other and that we don’t shoot down each other’s planes. And we decided to do what is called in this awful jargon deconfliction, which means not shooting each other. And we established a mechanism to do that, and that mechanism holds secure.”
Whatever Bibi hoped would come of this meeting doesn’t appear to have happened.
The Israeli hawks have, over the past week, rattled sabers in the north claiming Israel would not countenance any menacing presence on its Syria border. By which, they specifically meant Iranian meddling. The drums of war are pounding. In response to the jet crash, Israel has warned that Iran will “pay the price” for its recklessness. That may sound ominous. But I think the Iranian military is responding by saying: “So what?” We are in a very dangerous phase. And if it leads to war, this will not necessarily benefit Israel, despite what Bibi and his generals would have us believe.
Israel does not want both Hezbollah on its Lebanese border and Iran on its Syrian border, menacing its northern flanks. To that end, Netanyahu has spent enormous amounts of time inveigling Putin to ditch his Iranian friends and turn his back on their mutual alliance with the al-Bashar regime in Syria. Though the Russians and Israelis have managed to stay out of each other’s way in Syria, Putin has refused to abandon his Syrian and Iranian allies. This may be a turning point.
If this report is true, then Israel’s military dominance has once again been tested and found wanting. It’s ability to impose a Pax Israeliana on all of the Arab frontline states has once again been put in doubt (as it was in 2006, when it failed to trounce Hezbollah in the Lebanon War, as it had promised).
Finally, it’s important to note that Israel has not yet confirmed or denied the plane was shot down. But the fact that so far it has not said it crashed due to technical failure (which is what it would very much like to do if it were true) is significant.
“The Syrians have done something they’ve never been able to do before despite scores of Israeli aerial attacks inside their territory”
I wish that was true but in 73 Syria shot down quite a few planes and maybe in 82 as well.
I wasn’t referring to ancient history. I was referring to the period since Israel began attacking Syria over the past few years.
‘I wasn’t referring to ancient history. I was referring to the period since Israel began attacking Syria over the past few years.’
I wonder if Syria was physically incapable of doing anything or simply found the costs of submitting to the strikes less than the cost of responding.
If so, that she is responding now suggests she’s more confident than she was. After all, a year or so ago Syria was much more of a pariah than she is now. Now US hegemony is seriously becoming a thing of the past, it’s increasingly obvious that Assad is the only solution to the impasse in Syria — and he would appear to have both a firm commitment of Russian support and some sort of modus vivendi with Turkey.
@ Colin Wright: At least part of this is that Israel was able to jam Syria air defences using electronic warfare. That appears to have failed this time. But yes, Assad is feeling increasingly stronger & more emboldened apparently.
At the risk of ticking everyone off, I’ll note that the above exchange unconsciously replicates one of the least savory sources of Israel’s appeal — that to win is to be good.
Both posters are concerned to demonstrate that Israel isn’t all THAT potent. I’d agree — but that’s neither what’s wrong with her, nor what’s right with her.
On the other hand, it is why so many insecure little weasels love her so. She’s the great, powerful, alter ego.
@ Colin Wright: i.e. Might makes right
I don’t think of Gaza as a country, though maybe I should, but in any case different, as occupied or severely constrained. The Syrians, as they gain confidence may very well go after the (their) Golan. Don’t you think? Thanks for the report.
With all due respect, when we compare the wrong doings of all sides involved in the middle East, I still find the Israeli side by far the least problematic and least dangerous. Russia. Syria. Lebanon. Iran .These countries are responsible for a lot of evil, admit it or not .
@ Leonard Weinstein:
Just as much as Israel. Assad arguably has committed more evil than Israel killing a considerable portion of the overall 300,000 dead during the war, not to mention the millions of refugees he created. But Israel’s killing of 40,000 Arabs and Palestinians since 1948 is right up there.
The important distinction, from my point of view, is that Assad is not a product of US policy, nor is his survival a function of our continued vigorous support.
As I used to say when I lived in Richmond, Ca, no doubt several teenagers are out stealing cars tonight. That’s regrettable. If my son is one of them, it’s my responsibility.
Absolutely Assad is a product of US policy. Although the US stayed “Neutral” it permitted and encouraged the murderous fanatics sent and funded by the House of Saud and Qatar at the start of the uprising.
@ Leonard Weinstein “Evil”. When this word is bandied about, Israel definitely comes to mind among the top.
‘…I don’t think of Gaza as a country…’
Someone once said that smokers are made, not born. The same is true of countries. Nineteenth century fantasies notwithstanding, countries are really pretty arbitrary things, born of a couple of generations of shared experience and some shared ideology.
So by now, ditto for Gaza. It may not be a happy country, but a country, it is. Israel can give herself a medal. She’s created not just two nations, but arguably, three. For that matter, Lebanon…
Colin the smokers analogy serves to prove the opposite for me. Gaza is Palestinians separated from each other in the West Bank. Israel (and the US policy) has been successful, instrumental, in dividing these occupied territories, preventing them each from becoming a country or unified. Palestinians, to be sure need to have their divisions sorted out. Israel (and the US)has exacerbated these divisions. I think of a country as having sovereignty; neither Gaza not the West Bank is in full control of itself. At the UN Palestine is the country of West Bank and Gaza.
Richard, good article, I like your analysis & deductions, though time will tell how it all pans out.
What kind of drone was that? Does Israel, and does the US not routinely fly drones over other’s territory (Gaza, Afghanistan etc.). And was the stone over the Golan Heights or over Israeli territory?
Richard This must of made ur day!
I can see the smile on your face… finally some good news for you
@ Moshe: Before I ban you for this disgusting inane comment I want others to see why I am doing so.
Like God who told the angels to stop celebrating at the death of the Egyptians in the Red Sea, I’m not celebrating either, you monster. But does Syria have the absolute right to defend its territory from Israeli aggression? You bet. Just as if Iran (they won’t, but just for argument’s sake) had routinely bombed and murdered Israeli generals, it would have to right to defend its own territory and shoot down Iranian planes.
Intellectually, Moshe’s comment is kind of interesting. It’s forcing you to pick and choose — tribal loyalty, or universal loyalty?
To be fair, he IS hitting the nail on the head.
He can try it with me, of course — but about all he has to play is the ‘anti-Semite’ card. As I said, one could argue God created Israel to teach the Jews humility.
“Like God who told the angels to stop celebrating at the death of the Egyptians”
Yes he told the angels not the Israelites!
@ marty: Casuistry. If God didn’t approve of the angels rejoicing he certainly didn’t approve of the Israelites doing it either. The only difference is that humans are not divine, so perhaps he cut them some slack for their celebration of tragedy. Of course if you defend the Israelites’ behavior, then you are claiming that the Egyptians were not God’s creatures and therefore not worthy of pity and empathy. But God clearly disagrees.
@ Elisabeth: Iranian-made. Don’t know what model.
‘Does Israel…’
Well, Israel routinely plants bombs, mounts air attacks, shoots clearly innocent women and children, etc.
You’re not suggesting turn about is fair play, are you? I suppose next you’d argue Israel should abide by the agreements she’s signed or something. Let me guess: you think Israel is bound by the same moral strictures as the rest of us.
What’s fascinating — if depressing — about this story is the extraordinary lengths the mainstream media is going to to distort this story.
From most versions of it, you’d never guess that Israel has been regularly bombing Syria for months, and in some, the distinct impression is conveyed that the Israeli jet was involved in shooting down the drone rather than bombing Syria itself when it was shot down. Fox News probably has the most extreme version, but even the BBC et al are distorting what happened to a remarkable extent.
The kicker of course is that Israel is outraged at Syrian and Iranian aggression. Wherever he is, Joseph Goebbels must be green with envy.
There’s another aspect to this — or may be.
Netanyahu’s in trouble. He’s been in trouble before, and the response has been to sound the tocsin and announce the enemy is at the gates. Who could possibly persecute the Prime Minister in the middle of a war?
It’s at least possible that the outsized Israeli ‘response’ isn’t just out of outrage that the Syrians dared to resist Israeli’s airstrikes, but also a calculated maneuver to stir up some shit, so to speak. For domestic political purposes, Israel may need some fighting right about now, if not necessarily a full-on war.