UPDATE: With 95% of the vote counted, Likud’s victory is even more sweeping than reported in this post I wrote earlier. Jerusalem Post reports 30 seats of Likud, 24 for Labor. Kulanu (10), Bayit Yehudi (8), Yisrael Beitenu (6), Meretz (4), Joint List (14), Yesh Atid (11).
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Common wisdom says your first impression is always best. This holds true about the Israeli election. A week ago I wrote a post predicting that whatever the result, the Likud and Israeli far-right would win the election, cobble together a governing coalition, and things would go from bad to worse in terms of Israel’s relations with the Arab world, U.S., and rest of the world.
Then earlier today, just a few hours ago, I began hearing about desperate speeches Bibi was making via social media and the press, in which he was pulling out all the racist stops in a last-ditch effort to appeal to the nationalist base and stave off a disaster. My mistake was to believe the polls saying Bibi was finished. I thought his last-minute effort would fail and Bibi would be history.
But the old battle-axe fooled all the analysts and pollsters, who predicted as recently as last Friday a centrist victory and Likud disaster. As usual, Bibi knew his constituency better than the liberals and leftists who hoped for something different. He knew what motivated the average voter. He knew the red-meat phrases that set them salivating. He knew, in short, that fear and racism trumped the public’s growing impatience with his rule.
Bibi’s closing message was, modeled on Louis XIV, “Apres moi, les Arabes!” And it worked. The Guardian reports that Likud has picked up from four-five seats and is either equal to the Zionist Camp of even one seat ahead. Despite the fact that President Rivlin has voiced his strong preference for a national unity government, I think he won’t be able to ignore the huge momentum which caused a 20% shift in voting patterns in the past four days that drew this last-minute surge to the Likud. It has the momentum. Despite my despising Likud and all it stands for, they deserve the right to form the next government.
If they do, it puts a huge windfall in the hands of Moshe Kahlon, who won nine seats. He holds the cards, especially since he’s the only portion of the rightist coalition that bends even slightly toward the center. Kahlon is a Likudist at heart, but a shrewd pragmatic politician. As a minister, he helped break down the cell phone monopoly, which appealed to Israeli consumers and gave him a largely undeserved reputation as a populist concerned with social justice issues.
The last election’s Flavor of the Month, Yair Lapid, tried to take on this issue after his victory. But he took on an economic portfolio without any real power or experience necessary to introduce real reform. If Kahlon is smart, he will negotiate a deal to give himself real power, as opposed to a fig leaf. This will mean that Kahlon could be a provocative member of the governing coalition. He’s also someone with great ambition who wants to be the next prime minister.
If he takes on the social justice-economic reform agenda and succeeds, he could topple the current government at will, bring on elections, and crown himself the next PM. This, of course, depends on his success in the ministerial portfolio he chooses for himself.
There are several losers in this election: Lapid’s causes was reduced from 19 seats to 11. The Joint List only won 12 seats instead of the 13 expected in polls. Lieberman barely crossed the electoral threshold. Though other Israeli politicians have staged comebacks in the past, his days may’ve passed. Labor is a major loser here. It coasted on the polls saying to was sure to win. It, in the form of its campaign leader, Isaac Herzog, offered little new other than an improved relationship with the U.S., continued talking with the Palestinians (but no peace deal), and a turn away from confrontation with Iran to economic issues. Labor’s main platform was: we’re not him. That’s not a platform. That’s an avoidance mechanism. It doesn’t offer a way forward. It offers a way to walk away from the past without pointing to a future.
Israelis haven’t elected a Labor government in fifteen years. And there’s a reason for that. What did Labor offer except a slightly more centrist version of the status quo? There are no Obamas (2008 Obamas, that is) in Labor. There are only stolid organization men and women.
Though Bibi won a victory, he really pulled victory from the jaws of defeat. That’s no great achievement considering this is his third term in office. It’s very likely this will be his last. It leaves the future open to the next rightist demagogue to dominate Israeli politics for the next 20 years. It could be Kahlon or Bennett. It likely won’t be Lieberman. This isn’t a very hopeful prospect. But given the history of the past twenty years, I wouldn’t bet on the hope and change thing for Israel any time soon.
Bibi made a promise to his voters over the past few days that there would be no Palestinian state in his next term. He’s pointedly and publicly renounced his own previous two-state policy and U.S. policy since 1967. Already, Likud hasbara mavens like Gidi Grinstein of Reut Institute have been telling the NY Times that since Bibi is a largely “pragmatic” politician he may yet come back to the two-state position. And the universe may start over with a second Big Bang!
Let’s just say Bibi has an infinitely malleable relation with the truth. He can say anything to anyone and at any time and what he says is worth about as much as the paper it’s written on (or less). In other words, and as Sarkozy told Obama during an unguarded moment: “I can’t bear Netanyahu, he’s a liar.” To Bibi, of course, truth is relative. His own political interests and the survival of Israel (the two are almost always one and the same) predominate. Truth must serve them. When truth is useful, use it. When it’s not, make up something that sounds like the truth. Enough people will buy it so you can get by.
Given this, there is no room for a relationship with the Obama administration, especially given his Congressional speech and the fallout it evoked. Considering Likud robo-calls which warned voters that “Hussein Obama” would dictate an Israeli capitulation in peace talks, I don’t think there will be any congratulatory phone calls from the White House.
The world will continue turning away from Israel. There will be another war in Gaza or Lebanon (the link is to strategic analysis from a security think tank closely associated with Likudist ideology). After all, Bibi has routinely used Gaza as a punching bag whenever needing to burnish his security credentials. With his shaky government and hold on power, he will have to play the war card, perhaps more than once. While Israel needs war for domestic political purposes, the world doesn’t.
BDS will strengthen. Israel’s isolation will worsen. The UN will continue the process of formalizing Palestinian statehood, perhaps even making it official. The question is which way with the “Hussein Obama” administration go. Will Obama continue the process he’s started of getting a spine? Will he change U.S. policy in the United Nations? Will he allow a statehood vote? Will he change his approach to referral of Israel to the ICC? These are all wild cards. But remember Martin Luther King’s “The arc of the moral universe is long but it bends toward justice?” Obama’s borrowed it in his second inaugural address. Maybe he’ll remember that the next time he has to make a decision regarding policy toward Israel.
Perhaps it is better so. I said earlier that it would clarify matters if the wolf would remain in wolf’s clothing. There will be no more mystifying talk about peace negotiations that could be hampered by a UNSC decision hostile to Israel. So I am looking forward to such a decision being made.
The likudists have of course opted for the last man who can deliver what they want. The world has got his number and hopefully will deal with him accordingly.
He did spend that last few days of the election campaign sounding just like an Israeli version of George Wallace, didn’t he?
The only good that comes from all of this is that there can now no longer be any doubt: Netanyahu isn’t an aberration, he isn’t the problem, he is merely the material manifestation of what Israel is, and what Israel wants to be.
It simply can not be denied any longer, because Bibi definitely did blow the racism-whistle loooooong and hard, and when the voting public heard it they ran towards it.
Likud now has 30 seats, whereas before Bibi blew that whistle it was sitting on 20 seats.
Think about that, because it suggests that one third of the people who voted for Netanyahu had no intention of doing so UNTIL he outed himself as an outrageous racist – at which point they got off their backsides and stampeded to him.
Shameful. Utterly shameful.
Spot on.
I think that’s a misleading interpretation. They wouldn’t have voted for Bibi only because, for the most part, they would have voted for some other right-wing party that would then horse-trade with Likud. The trick Bibi pulled was to get them to vote for him, otherwise he would lose (which he would have). As a result of this tactic, I believe all the other RW parties (except for the special case of Kulanu) LOST seats. Those seats went, for the most part anyway, to Likud. True, Zionist Union wound up with about 3 fewer seats than expected, not sure what happened to them. But if you think some great change actually took place in the Israeli right, no, that’s not what happened. It’s unfortunate that Netanyahu won, but it’s probably more interesting that the Arab party did so well.
איך ההרגשה? הכותרת – זו הפעם הראשונה שכתבת משהו שהוא נכון : )
Israel’s enemies are rejoicing,
There couldn’t have been a better outcome for them than what Netanyahu and the Israeli voter have produced together. It is now very clear to all and sundry that Israel *chose* a racist leader who has no compunction whatsoever to produce a civil solution with the Palestinians.
Netanyahu also managed to offend and insult a large fraction of the population of its largest and most vital supporter. The Obama administration and many US voters are going to be much more intransigent and disinclined to accede to Israeli wishes and requests.
I am not sure, whether many Israelis realize to what extent they have managed to endanger US-Israeli ties by reelecting Netanyahu.
All of these wounds are entirely self-inflicted. 30 years of BDS, Palestinian lobbying at the UN and prevaricating by Israel over the Two-State solution taken together would not have been as dangerous and harmful as the behavior of Netanyahu and his reelection by the Israeli voter.
Well done, Israel.
It’s sad that the Joint List can’t sit in the coalition. Zionist Union + Meretz + Joint List + Yesh Atid + Kulanu = 63 seats. As you note, though, that hypothetical coalition isn’t at all in Kahlon’s interest. By the same token, Kahlon is a whole lot better than Netanyahu and he just became almost as powerful.
Yeah, isn’t that sad ….. Herzog who supported the Knesset decision of excluding Haneen Zoabi from running for the election before the Supreme Court invalidated the decision, Lapid who after the last election said he wouldn’t govern with ZoabiS (plural, I guess he meant Arabs who won’t bow….)
Really sad, I’m almost crying.
(In fact I have only contempt for people who think Arab votes should be used to save the Zionist State)
So what exactly do you think “Arab votes” should be used for?
@ djf: Palestinian votes should be used in a truly democratic state in which they are equal citizens with equal opportunities, rights & power. If a Jewish party or governing coalition excludes Palestinians or a candidate like Bibi incites against them, this is not a democracy.
Richard, most of us don’t have the luxury of waiting for “a truly democratic state in which [all] are equal citizens with equal opportunities, rights & power” before participating in politics. As you define it, a true democracy has never existed in this world. A Palestinian mandate of 14 seats that can’t/won’t participate in the government only further weakens the Israeli Left by making it easier for the Right to woo the Center. It’s a shame.
@ djf: That’s utter nonsense. Just because Israel is a sham democracy doesn’t mean there aren’t real, albeit imperfect democracies elsewhere.
Nor did I ever tell anyone not to participate in politics in Israel. By all means participate. But don’t expect the current electoral system to offer anything but racism & disempowerment. “Politics” is also more than “elections.”
Blaming Israeli Palestinians for Israeli racism & political disenfranchisement is a sham on yr part.
When did I blame Israeli Palestinians for racism and disenfranchisement? I know you didn’t tell anyone not to participate in politics. Deïr Yassin did (“I have only contempt for people who think Arab votes should be used to save the Zionist State”), to which I was responding.
@djf: Sorry if I responded to your comment which was not meant for me.
As for blaming Israeli Palestinians for their own didenfranchisment, you said it was their refusal to join governing coalitions that sentenced them to powerlessness.
As a an american white gentile, I’m grieved and want to do something about it. But my influence is small. What is needed is world and especially american Jews to come together, make a public stand and confront Likud and Bibi. I wonder if it’s the only way to save the nation of Israel… (I dislike its actions on the world stage, but I do not want to see it disappear. I do not want anyone to suffer, even Jewish Israelis) But Bibi and Likud are a world menace. They hate the idea of peace and most troubling they have quite a cadre of true believers over here (in USA) that would do anything he told them to do. I have numerous GOP/Israel-firster people on my social media and they Worship this guy. If he asked them to physically attack some american person or institution he doesn’t like, they would do it without a thought. If he asked them to disregard some or all of the Constitution/Bill of Rights for his sake, they would do it. If he asked them for money or any kind of material support in anything he wanted, they would give it to him/Likud no matter how violent or treasonous.
The only good from all of this is as Yeah, Right says… it’s clear now. Bibi can lie all he wants and pretend to be a civilized, democratic leader of the “free” world. The world knows better.
“If he asked them to physically attack some american person or institution he doesn’t like, they would do it without a thought. ….. If he asked them for money or any kind of material support in anything he wanted, they would give it to him/Likud no matter how violent or treasonous..”
Which is inherently the Bibi incitement phenomenon by which Rabin ended up assassinated. This is what fascist leaders do and how their brown-shirts respond.
Can’t really say much. Maybe it has to get worse before it can get better.
“worse before it can get better.”
How much “worse” can it get?
MS, I’d suggest that you pose that question to an Israeli Arab in, oh, say, about 12-16 months from now.
Because I’d be pretty sure that life is about to get much, much worse for them.
Dissolution of the Israeli democracy into a Russia-like state – the only element of democracy will be elections. No true freedom of speech, no authorities separation and outright corruption. The problem is that a large portion of the population does not seem to believe in democratic values, other than “the rule of the majority”. It has deteriorated much in the last summer (much more than during the second intifada, despite the lower number of casualties), and will probably get worse.
I’m not sure it can get better as long as Israel is in this state of affairs with the Palestinians. You can not be Sparta outside and Athens inside. Israeli arabs are indeed the first to feel it, but it won’t be limited to them.
Maybe our founding fathers were wrong when they thought we can overcome the tensions of territorial conflict and remain a free and just society. Maybe founding Israel in this place was not a good idea.
Israel election viewed from pragma
1) Every party that has joined Bibi has wound up vanished 2 elections later – Read Barak, Read Lapid, Read Liberman Read Benett, Read Livni – Benett, Liberman will be wiped in next election, Lapid will take one more to go, Livni saved her neck by joining Herzog, otherwise she’s gone
2) Kahlon WILL BE A FIG LEAF, that is the modus operandi of Bibi, He IS THE GOVERNMENT, the ministers are there to put meat on the bone he’s chosen, most ministers have zero say except Yalon, otherwise where are the Shalom, Steinitz and a slew of contenders who were disappeared.
3) Lapid started with great ambitions to CHANGE, but CHANGE IS NOT IN BIBI, result is BIBI turned on him and Livni and claimed they were planning a COUP AGAINST HIM.
4) Kahlon will learn the hard way that he has no say in what goes in government, he will turn into a fig leaf and EVERY SINGLE VOTER that voted for him will go somewhere else, HE WILL HAVE SOLD HIS SOUL FOR a plate of beans (read Lapid)
Result of all this is
a) Europe will find it VERY EASY to place sanctions and support each Palestinian demand out of shear spite.
b) The UN US rooted veto will not be used REGULARLY AS IN PAST.
c) Obama punishment will come in two flavors either disavow any knowledge of Israel beyond what’s already in the pipes or try to implement a US mandated peace process based on past discussions.
In my opinion Obama had anticipated a final round of discussion before leaving office with the hope of having set two agreement, one with Iran and the second Israel. That would have been great accomplishmentS. However It will be much easier for Obama to wash his hands on Israel and stop all communications down to the bare minimum, I do not see Kerry busting his heart in another born dead discussions. Israel abandonment will have been completed and any segregation will take root. His claim “After me the Arabs ” will happen to pass, out of sheer greed to use the country as a petty cash box.
And so will Israel be brought to its knees, its riches will have been bestowed on religious and settlers.
So sad, it breaks my heart, and yet this is where I live
As someone who despised Herzog’s and Livni’s duplicitous campaign of trying to be holier than the pope and more rightist than Netanyahu, I cannot be but overjoyed at their downfall. Hopefully, we’ve heard the last from the both of them.
Now, it is time to get behind and fully support the BDS movement as it continues to gain traction, especially in the U.S. Obama can choose to grow a spine and deal with Netanyahu in the manner he should have from day one, but I doubt he will at this point. BDS is the name of the game as far as dealing with Israel is concerned.
….And the self-destruction continues. It’s like watching America plow into the second Iraq War, except this time, they know what will happen but they are doing it anyway. I expect some sort of crazy air-sea war with Iran that will fail miserably, or a crazy invasion of Syria to both wipe out Ba’athism and the Islamic warrior threat that turns into a quagmire, or something even dumber. Bibi will not be happy until he is a fugitive living in the US.