No, I didn’t devise that title in case there are any pro-Israel folk out there seeking further proof of my perfidy toward Israel. It happens to have been written by prominent Israeli satirist, film and TV writer Kobi Niv, in a column in today’s Haaretz.
He begins by referring to a tidbit from a Cindy Adams New York Post gossip column confirming Henry Kissinger was heard to say recently that Israel will not exist within ten years. Though Kissinger moves among the circles of the élite, he’s never been known as a fierce pro-Israel advocate. Nor has he ever been known as especially critical of Israel. That makes his comment, if genuine, all the more telling. Though I haven’t heard any further confirmation from other sources about this claim, I haven’t heard a denial from Kissinger.
In a brilliant piece of political satire and analysis Niv suggests it’s not a question of whether Israel will exist in ten years, but what kind of Israel will exist. From his vantage point (that of a member of the secular cultured élite), things aren’t looking well. He suggests that the struggle between secular and religious in Israel is over and the religious nationalists have won (a view I’ve espoused here). The only question that remains to be answered is when will Israel become the sort of place in which secular Israelis will no longer feel welcome: when Israel is 60% religious, 70% or 90%? And how long will it take to reach that threshold?
There is, of course, another option which most Israelis either discount or ignore. What if Israel were to become joined with Palestine as a single state or confederation? Then, it would no longer be a religious state dominated by Haredim and religious Zionists. It would become a Jewish majority forced to grapple with a large Palestinian minority. If this were to happen, then this state would have to become secular and democratic, separating the state from religion; or it would have to figure out a way to integrate the various religions into the framework of such a state. I don’t envy anyone who tries to do the latter. It seems a recipe for confusion and ongoing enmity. I’ve never heard of a state with two national religions, let alone three.
A secular democratic state would also be problematic, since both sides hold fast to their respective religions and would be loath to remove them entirely from the political sphere. But frankly, I can’t see any other way to do it. We’ve succeeded here in America, while religion continues to play a major role in the personal lives of most citizens. Of course, we’ve had a few centuries to perfect this system, while Israel has had only a few decades and done a pretty poor job of it.
We can talk all we want about what we might have liked Israel to be. For decades Diaspora Jews and secular Israelis trumpeted it as a Jewish democratic state. It used to be my “religion” as well. But the contradictions between the two terms ‘Jewish’ and ‘democratic’ have become too onerous to reconcile. So we should forget those dreams. That train’s left the station. We must, if we wish Israel to survive at all, turn to what is possible.
Do we want Israel to turn into a state filled with poor ultra-Orthodox Jews and a Palestinian under-class, a religious theocracy not unlike present-day Iran? Do we want the sort of Italian or Irish diaspora where they outnumber natives by a factor of five or ten to one? That’s what’s likely to happen if the majority of the secular élite leave to pursue their careers and build their families abroad.
Here is Niv’s projection:
Israel will become more religious Zionist, zealous, insular and unrestrained. It will be at constant war with the surrounding countries, with many nations boycotting its products. Its economy, in which inequality will grow, will weaken, and the best of its secular-liberal young men and women will leave it for Canada or Kamchatka.
Can a country like this continue to exist over time? You decide.
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I could never understand why there was never the idea of Palestine being a traditional homeland for all who have lived there for thousands of years. Why were the Palestinians expelled in 1947 and 1948? There was enough room for everyone who wished to live there. No one would have been killed or forced into refugee camps. Arabs and Jews would have continued to coexist as they had been doing. But no; the Zionist movement was greedy and wanted all of it just for Jews. This obviously didn’t work on any long term basis. It’s time to rethink Israel, for sure.
Most memoirs and recollections of the period of the founding, including Jewish memoirs, cite Zionism as the single factor that tore open the country, the claim to all the land in the name of a political national entity albeit defined by religion, an idea that was seemed marginal and peculiar at the time to mainstream Jewish life globally. Zionism — the ridiculous claim of a handful to everything and more — is the heart of the matter. If you want a better future for everyone, you have to subdue Zionism, you have to show it up as a ridiculous credo such that, in the future, a person is ashamed and apologetic for having ever associated with this belief. I feel certain the day will come: I do not feel certain I will see it.
Repeating a lie does not make it true.
‘the Zionist movement was greedy and wanted all of it just for Jews’
The Zionists agreed to a two-state solution, which was rejected by the Arabs, who started a war in a destructive attempt to drive the Jews into the sea.
‘It’s time to rethink Israel, for sure.’
Israel exists, deal with it. Instead of thinking how to destroy existing nations, you should focus your efforts on the building of the Palestinian state. This region has seen enough wars and destruction.
Agreement was seen as an expedient only. Ben Gurion was delighted it was rejected. What people, what natives, are going to “agree” to give more than half their land to a minority of colonists imported to the area, zealots whose beliefs entitle them to the rest of the land? Arabs had several hundreds of years to push the Jews into the sea and didn’t do so. No accounting for that, huh?
Not only is it time to “rethink” Israel, it is the duty of both Israelis and Jews worldwide to do this now. Without such a re-thinking, Israel and Judaism will become an historical oddity. Americans today are perplexed by the American experience of slavery. About buying and selling human beings, they say “How could they do that?” They will say the same thing about modern day Israel. And just like back then, there are people today, here on this blog, sounding the alarm.
Given Israel’s armament, policies, politics and enormous subvention from without, I’d say that, with respect to “wars and destruction,” the region ain’t seen nuthin’ yet.
I’m inclined to agree with Mary. Jews, Christians, Muslims et al, living in Palestine presents much better opportunites for peacful co- existence than Muslims, Christians and Jews living in Zionist Israel.
I read Niv’s piece when it was published. I am afraid he’s echoing (and belatedly so) the feelings and the thoughts of many of Israel’s secular minority. It is probably late for my generation (40-50 years old) – we will not be able to escape but will eke out our lives in an Israelistan, guided by YHWH’s handlers like Ovadya Yosef and Eli Ishai – but I told my eldest daughter most firmly that I expect and demand of her to make her future outside Israel. Let her choose a place – and go. The same obtains for my younger, when she reaches the age of reason.
Alas for my children.
I hear & understand your pain as a father having to say this.
My problem with Israel transforming into a democratic state through a union with Palestinians is my utter lack of belief in their (Palestinian) or our (Israeli) willingness and ability to abide by a democratic milieu’s rules. The religious portions in both societies (and these portions are growing, since procreational responsibility is not on these sub-groups agenda) will swamp the moderates, the democrats and the secularists.
Then, when that happens, the two groups could get down to what they really enjoy – slaughtering each other and others besides. Israel will get there sooner (since we currently enjoy the advantages of an earlier start and the fig-leaf of the holocaust) but Palestinians will not be kept far behind.
Israel will become another Syria or Afganistan and Rwanda in mid-eighties or… well, one of many.
YHWH “handlers” — what a good way to put it.
It wasn’t until Israelis began slaughtering Palestinians that the resistance came to be. If there hadn’t been the massive deaths and forced expulsions of Palestinians at the hands of the Jews, you would not have this situation. So you can lament all you like about not being able to live in peace, but just remember who is to blame for it.
When did Israelis begin slaughtering Palestinians? When did the resistance come to be? What time period are you talking about? What exactly is your definition of “massive deaths”?
Incidentally, it’s a little weird how you say “at the hands of Jews” rather than Israelis.
I used “Jews” to differentiate from “Arabs.” Try starting with the Irgun and the Stern Gang. I won’t go any further out of respect for Richard’s comment rules. Dealing with the same old hasbara gets tiresome.
Israelis do in fact slaughter Palestinians, e.g. Cast Lead. Such slaughter had to have a beginning, a start. That’s when. Richard’s rules.
Long before then, Davey. But it’s off-topic.
Appreciate the response – very instructive. I’ll make sure to keep things on topic so I won’t engage the question further.
One can never build a stable structure on wrong foundations! The structure will always collapse. As for mary’s comment above, Zionists do not just want ALL of Palestine. It is for them only a country they need to control in order to have their global Empire! Activist Jews told me that Palestine is only an experiment and the rest will come after. Check out what they have done to Egypt through commerce AFTER they had a peace treaty.
I think the US and Hosni Mubarak had a lot to do with the downhill slide of Egypt’s commerce. There is no single source of blame. I don’t think there is any sort of movement towards a global empire – there aren’t enough Jews to pull it off, for one thing. For another, I think it is as offensive as someone like Robert Spencer claiming that Muslims want to take over America.
This comment is for real?
I smell a troll. Dr. Soudy or whoever you are, if you continue in this vein you’ll be toast. Read the comment rules.
“Jews told me that Palestine is only an experiment and the rest will come after.”
My guess is that these Jews reside in your head.
Actually, Israelis of all political stripes are among the most optimistic people about the future of their country in the world, and far, far more optimistic than Americans are about the US. This is in spite of the fact that few Israelis believe that a peace agreement with the Arabs achievable in the foreseeable future. This poll was conducted by the Israeli Democracy Institute:
http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=284014
Thus, there is no indication that the “secular elite” is planning to leave the country en masse. As long as people have economic opportunities, which have been expanding in recent decades, they will overwhelmingly stay. True, there is a small “progressive” minority that is very depressed and demoralized, but there have always been groups like this, this is nothing new, and they don’t represent the population at large, or any significant part of it.
Note, also that thei Arabs of the country are also generally optimistic about their future in the country. 90% of Jews and 90% of Arabs view their future as continuing to be in Israel.
In any event, it is true that the religious and right-wing elements in Israel are becoming stronger, although there is no chance of Israel becoming a “theocracy” (most of the religious don’t want it any more than do the secular), and this groups, will in the long run, be the one to make a modus-vivendi with the Arab population. Why? Because their values and life-style are much closer to that of the Arab population than is that of the Israeli “progressives”. Both support “family values”, religious tradition, modesty in dress and behavior, both oppose the trampling of these values in the Western media so as religious influence increases, the Arab/Muslim population will feel less threatened by the Jewish Israeli culture around them, unlike the quasi-Marxist, socialist, materialist and consumerist values the Israel Left has trumpeted for decades.
Economic opportunities expanding in Israel? For whom? For the Ofer Brothers and Denker families? Sure. For Moshe Silman? Not so much.
I do so love it when settler-lovers like you lecture us about the poor demoralized lefist sects. No doubt if you & your chevra had their way when the settlers take over the country (they actually don’t even need to since they essentially own it politically already) leftists will be exiled to that new planet near Alpha Centauri.
Israel is well on its way to becoming a theocracy whether you say so or not. Besides, even if it were one outright you’d continue denying it was so. Reminds me a bit of Bush claiming waterboarding wasn’t torture & Obama saying targeted killings are acceptable under international law.
Israeli haredim are going to make peace with “Arabs” because they’re “closer” in outlook to them. Now I know you’re smoking some powerful Hezbollah hashish! By the way, there’s one thing Israeli Palestinians don’t at all have in common with Haredim: the former have no rights & the Haredim and their settler allies have stolen their land for decades. You’re out of your friggin’ mind or else you’ve drunk the settler Kool Aid.
There is one way to look at you though. Your claims are so stupid, outrageous & patently dumb that you represent a type that we can study to understand the nuttiness of your breed. So thank you…I think.
This is the best part: “the Arab/Muslim population will feel less threatened by the Jewish Israeli culture around them, unlike the quasi-Marxist, socialist, materialist and consumerist values the Israel Left has trumpeted for decades.”
A new take on the “white man’s burden.” Give ’em a Torah and warm blankets for the winter, and they will be eating out of your hand. Pfffft.
“less threatened”??? You mean when there is nothing left to lose, they will feel “less threatened”? Yep — less threatened and even more pissed off!
Predictions for the future of a country, is a risky business. Many things can change drastically. Demographically, for instance, the arrival of the Russian Jews had a big impact on related matters and likewise the present increased immigration from France (due to anti-Semitic incidents there). Another fallacy is ignoring others. The Arab spring in my view will in most countries bring much more focusing on own matters with Israel pushed to the backburner (as starkly different from the common practice in the past of using it as a fig-leaf) and consequently I cannot accept the forecast of wars with Arab countries. Perhaps the contrary – and the emergence of the “common enemy”, Iran, also works in that way. There is no need to be scared from the ultra-religious – in the Jewish version they are rather inward looking and not violent.
May I suggest to read the dire predictions about Israel`s fate 40-50 years ago? When Israel had half of the present population and much smaller in size (dangerously narrow near its main urban hubs), rather poor and without the hi-tech prominence it now enjoys, the Arab world looked as a huge monolith around with the powerful oil weapon employed and so on and on. Defeatism is human nature but Israel is exactly about proving it wrong turn after turn.
The Haredim who fling rocks & burn tires in main thoroughfares and in the West Bank launch homemade Qassams at neighboring Palestinian villages are “inward looking & not violent.” What are you smokin’??
Israel has always had a military advantage over the Arab frontline states. So the old saw about the beleaguered Jews facing 20 Arab armies & fighting for their lives is rather frayed around the edges I’m afraid.
‘West Bank launch homemade Qassams at neighboring Palestinian villages’
Uh? Are you intentionally doing a false role reversal here, or just plain lying?
Sorry bub. Wrong again. A student at the Yizhar yeshiva was arrested for firing a homemade Qassam at the neighboring Palestinian village. I don’t mind hasbarists so much as I do their ignorance. If you knew me better you’d know I don’t lie. But accuse me of that again & you’ll be toast.
Either provide a reliable source, or admit your lie.
Also, a Qassam is a simple rocket designed by Hamas. A homemade rocket isn’t automatically a “Qassam”.
Listen jackass, my job in life isn’t holding your hand and filling that empty head of yours full of knowledge. The Qassam incident was reported in Haaretz, which I linked to in a blog post. You do research & find it yourself & don’t force me to be your tutor.
For being an ass & failing to understand English, you’re moderated.
So Israel had an advantage over the Arab armies in 1948? All I can say is “thank heaven for that!”. But 6000 Jews died in that war, 1% of the population of the country. That is whay I call “fighting for your life”. Not a cake walk and a reason to be thankful for the victory.
It was a war of choice for Israel. It only fought it because it knew it was superior militarily to the Arabs & it was. Israel has never chosen to fight a war in which it had inferior forces.
Actually, in my opinion, that was the one war that was not Israel’s choice – given the circumstances during the decade leading up to that. True – the final quarter of the war was, already, Israel’s exploitation of the victory, bit the initial roll-up was not Israel’s choice.
Israel did manage to emerge out of all its wars handily ascendant. Which – alas – raised its level of self-satisfaction and invulnerability (on the one hand) and its fear (on the other and somewhat unexpected hand) much too high.
Unlike most of the European powers, unlike the United States, unlike much of Asia, Israel has never (until the Lebanon war) never discovered the limits of might and its application.
M
@ Tibor
“And likewise the present increased immigration from France (due to anti-Selmtic incidents there)”.
Nope, that’s simply wrong. I live in France, and recently I saw something about the reduction of aliyah among French Jews on the television, so I went looking for the statistics which clearly contradicts your claim, much to your sorrow, probably, and to those who articifially increase the number of anti-semitc incidents in France. (It’s off-topic but look for a Samy Ghozlan who was in fact temporarily excluded from CRIF for inventing anti-semitic incidents).
For the last six years, the number of French Jews leaving for Israel has diminished, and between 20% and 30% return after having made aliyah.
Furthermore, you’ll find the statistics since 1919 in the blue link:
http://www.terredisrael.com/infos/?p=34260
Thanks for your fact checking. One hopes he was ignorant & not deliberately circulating claims he knew to be false.
The fact checking is wrong. Immigration to Israel from France has gone up over the last three years.
2009: 1,894
2010: 2,040
2011: 2,100
So far in 2012, numbers are up again (for Jan-May, a 13 percent increase)
Sources:
2010: France: 2,040 as opposed to 1,894 last year (8% increase)
http://www.jafi.org.il/JewishAgency/English/About/Press+Room/Press+Releases/2010/dec28.htm
2011: Immigration from France rose to approximately 2,100 from 2,000 last year (an increase of 4%)
http://www.jewishagency.org/JewishAgency/English/About/Press+Room/Press+Releases/2011/sep22.htm
2012: Numbers from France were up by 13 percent in Jan-May compared to the same period last year
http://www.timesofisrael.com/aliya-7-down-so-far-this-year-but-numbers-from-western-europe-up/
I wouldn’t trust numbers published by the Jewish Agency or Times of Israel as far as I could throw ’em. But the difference between 1,800 or 2,100 Olim from France seems a drop in the bucket. If any French Jew decides to move to Israel because he feels threatened by terrorism he should have his or her head examined as he’s far more likely to be killed (or find a child killed during military service) than if he or she stayed put in France.
The “wrong fact checking” are numbers from the Israeli Ministry of Immigration !
And if you took a look at the graphics, you’ll see that indeed aliyah from France has risen slightly since 2009, but yerida (re-emigration) has risen even more (as mentioned in the French article). You missed to check that didn’t you ? Israeli sources rarely speak about the people who leave again. It’s even considerd a taboo, I’ve heard.
When a super-Zionist site as “Terre d’Israël”, the most important site of the French-speaking community in Israel, when the French Television, when the CRIF all agree that aliyah from France is diminishing, and that more and more return back to France after having made aliyah, that’s good enough for me.
Happy to see that your googling-skills are back, though….
i have no problem if israel becomes a secular democratic state… just as long as its like here in Canada where tax dollars can go to religious schools and national holydays are jewish ones and Israels charter is still one of a jewish refuge … Like Rosh Hashana and Yom Kippur and Chanukah… Like in Canada for Christian Holydays…
To paraphrase Paul Simon, “Still Fresh after 3000 Years!” And crazy too.
Soudy, I don’t know what you’re referring to when you write: “Check out what they have done to Egypt through commerce AFTER they had a peace treaty.”