A few weeks ago I reported that Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s last visit to Israel was quite acrimonious. Now we know the reason why. Or at least we know the reason someone in the U.S. government leaked to Haaretz’s Barak Ravid. Until now, Israel had followed an unwritten agreement that it would not attack Iran without coordination (i.e. permission) with the U.S. At his meetings with Netanyahu and Barak, Israel for the first time refused to give such an assurance, despite Panetta’s repeated demand that it do so.
It’s one thing when Sarah Palin “goes rogue” and an entire more dangerous one when a military power like the IDF does:
In his recent visit to Israel, American Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta did not get a clear commitment from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak that Israel would not take action against Iranian nuclear facilities without coordinating any such operation with the United States.
According to American officials who were briefed about the visit Panetta made a month ago to Israel, the two Israeli leaders only answered Panetta’s questions regarding Israel’s intentions toward Iran in a general manner.
…Panetta raised the Iranian issue in his talks in Israel with both Netanyahu and Barak. He sought not only to hear about Israel’s intentions but also to underline that the U.S. was interested in full coordination with Israel on the issue of the Iranian nuclear threat. The American defense secretary hinted that the Americans did not want to be surprised by Israel. For their parts, however, Netanyahu and Barak avoided providing a clear response, answering vaguely and in general terms.
This is what led a Pentagon official yesterday to leak to CNN’s security correspondent that the U.S. not only believes Israel might “go rogue,” but that it required positioning surveillance satellites to observe potential Israeli preparations for such an attack. This clearly isn’t the behavior of an ally. More the behavior of a military power deciding to go out on its own. Interesting also that U.S. relations with Israel are so poor on this particular subject that a U.S. official has to leak to an Israeli reporter word of how displeased the Obama administration is with Israel’s obduracy.
These are the actions of an Israeli leader who has taken the relationship to a whole new level. Instead of close coordination, Bibi’s going to go his own way. In the past, most U.S. presidents would’ve communicated in no uncertain terms that there would be consequences. This president can’t or won’t do that. Unlike any president I can remember, Barak Obama is being led by the nose by Bibi. There is no will to establish an independent line that hews to a U.S. interest, which might be at all separate from Israeli interests. There truly is no daylight, as U.S. politicians and presidential candidates like to say, between Israel and the U.S. As the old UJA slogan used to say: “We are One.”
Contrary to the proud American Jews who used that slogan, this is not a good thing. Nations are not Siamese twins. They have separate interests. If they don’t then one is a puppet and the other the puppeteer. We needn’t specify who’s who in this scenario. Has this country sunk so low, has its power and influence been so degraded that an Israeli prime minister pulls our strings?
Here’s two Israeli leaders who are telling the U.S. that they will go their own and that they don’t believe there will be any meaningful consequences as a result. The Obama administration’s management of this relationship has failed utterly and abysmally.
Yossi Melman, with excellent sources within the Mossad, writes what his sources tell him the expected IAEA report will tell the world about Iran’s nuclear intentions. Let’s keep in mind before we go farther that Melman may or may not be telling us what will be in the report when it’s released next week. But he’s surely telling us what the Mossad and Bibi want and expect to be in the report. A clue to how dodgy this leak is is that Melman won’t even tell his readers anything about his source. He merely calls it “a leak:”
Iran is pursuing its nuclear weapons program at the Parchin military base about 30 kilometers from Tehran, diplomatic sources in Vienna say. The Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to release a report this week on Iran’s nuclear activities.
According to recent leaks, Iran has carried out experiments in the final, critical stage for developing nuclear weapons – weaponization. This includes explosions and computer simulations of explosions. The Associated Press and other media outlets have reported that satellite photos of the site reveal a bus-sized container for conducting experiments.
…Parchin serves as a base for research and development of missile weaponry and explosive material. It also has hundreds of structures and a number of fortified tunnels and bunkers for carrying out explosive experiments.
…According to information leaked to the media, the report will include a 12-page appendix with details including documents and satellite photos that support the contention that, in violation of its international obligations, Iran is covertly developing nuclear weapons.
According to a Guardian editorial, the information that may appear in next week’s report is not new. I have no doubt that IAEA has such photographs and documents or something similar to them. But my concern is whether whatever information it has is reliable and credible. The Mossad has a history of releasing documents and evidence of Iranian pursuit of nuclear triggering devices and other means towards weaponization. Most such evidence has been highly suspect. The question for the IAEA is what does it have and how trustworthy is it?
Israel of course wants the world to believe the report will be the smoking gun. Then, according to who you believe, Israel will have sufficient grounds to launch an attack; or else it will expect the world to ratchet up pressure with a new round of sanctions and covert ops including assassinations and cyberwarfare. For the life of me, I can’t see how Israel’s leaders will be satisfied more the same old-same old policies which haven’t moved Iran till now.
Another article in Haaretz today points out that the U.S. no-fly zone over Iraq ends on December 31st. At any point afterward, Israel could violate Iraqi airspace with impunity on its way to attack Iran.
The Guardian lays blame for the impasse partially at Israel’s door:
The reality is that Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons is seen as a threat for reasons partly of Israel’s own making – foremost its absolute reliance on a policy of military supremacy and deterrence to underpin security. A nuclear-armed Iran would hole that policy below the waterline, making it far more difficult, for instance, to launch the kind of war it waged against Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2006.
This is a lot closer to the truth of the matter than any hysterical rhetoric about the “mad mullahs” or the year being 1938 and Teheran being Munich. The truth of the matter is that Israel wants no competition for hegemony in the region. When any country or militant group gets to bit for its britches and threatens Israel’s dominance, the IDF takes ’em down a notch or two. Israel knows it cannot take out Iran’s nuclear capability. Further, it knows Iran will only redouble its efforts after an attack. This won’t be like Saddam and Osirak. But Israel’s goal isn’t to dismantle the Iranian program. It’s to fire a warning shot across the bow warning the Iranians of who’s boss and plans to remain so.
Bibi is on record as being deeply suspicious of the goals of the Arab Spring. Israeli hardliners believe it’s an ill wind that blows no good toward the nation’s shores. The Middle East is increasingly a region in which Israel sees Islamists and global jihad–enemies and no friends (with the possible exception of Jordan). That might further fuel Bibi’s desire to show his potential enemies how Israel treats those it views as hostile to its interests.
Now, you may say that this is an insane way to conduct policy putting most of your citizens at risk through counter-attacks solely in order to send a message in blood. I agree. But much of Israeli policy isn’t rational. So what can you do? I suppose some might argue that much of Iranian policy isn’t rational either. That’s why Iran and Israel, their leaders at least, seem made for each other. It’s hard to tell which is more delusional, taunting, and bellicose.
The last word goes to the Guardian editorial:
… Israel risks talking itself into a corner where it appears weak if it doesn’t act and perhaps weaker if it does, a country increasingly bereft of any notion of how to manage relations with its neighbours except through the threat of aggression.
I have an even deeper concern-that is, that this is not just the “threat of aggression,” but rather an act of aggression. One of many in Israeli history when it feels even remotely threatened.
RE: As the old UJA slogan used to say: “We are One.”
MY COMMENT: Right, the “violent parent” and its enabler!
SEE: Avraham Burg: Israel’s new prophet ~ By Donald Macintyre, The Independent, 1 November 2008
Avraham Burg was a pillar of the Israeli establishment but his new book is causing a sensation. It argues that Israel is an “abused child” which has become a “violent parent”. And his solutions are radical, as he explains to Donald Macintyre.
LINK – http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/books/features/avraham-burg-israels-new-prophet-979732.html
RE: “The reality is that Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons is seen as a threat for reasons partly of Israel’s own making – foremost its absolute reliance on a policy of military supremacy and deterrence to underpin security.” ~ The Guardian
MY COMMENT: Yes, Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons would partially rupture Israel’s “iron wall” (as advocated by Jabotinsky in 1923). And reliance upon the “iron wall” by its very nature (being the neighborhood bully) means that Israel has not developed much (if any) of an alternative approach to maintaining its security.
If Israel is, ‘ “an abused child” who has become a “violent parent”, than what’s to become of the Palestinians when they ‘grow up’?
MY REPLY: So you accept that Avraham Burg, former Speaker of the Israeli Knesset, is correct in comparing Israel to a “violent parent”?
P.S. Why is it that “Proud Zionists” are so reluctant to intelligently rebut criticism of Israel, but instead resort to immature, childish tactics like changing the subject?
P.P.S. SEE: Sinning against Zionism: Traitor to Country, by William A. Cook , Dissident Voice, 4/21/11
ENTIRE COMMENTARY – http://dissidentvoice.org/2011/04/sinning-against-zionism-traitor-to-country/
You’ve just reminded me why I can’t stand Dissident Voice. What a bunch of holier than thou malarkey, histrionics & overstatement.
It is a lot of jabberwocky to swallow at one sitting.
P.S. ALSO SEE: Moshe Dayan’s Widow Ruth: Zionist Dream Has Run Its Course ~ Newsweek/DailyBeast, 11/30/11
SOURCE – http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/10/30/moshe-dayan-s-widow-ruth-zionist-dream-has-run-its-course.html
RE: “This clearly isn’t the behavior of an ally. More the behavior of a military power deciding to go out on its own.” ~ R.S.
MY COMMENT: Not to fear, I’m certain Dennis “Israel’s Lawyer” Ross has everything under control!
Even if Iran had nukes that is not a casus belli. In that case, Iran have a right to strike Israeli Dimona reactor etc.
Iran wouldnt use it nukes, its for detterence israel however thought of using their nukes atleast to times in the 60s and 70s. Still we getting fed with the “iranian threat”.
As soon as israeli leaders are pressured to stop settlement, accept peace they always start to point fingers at Iran. Now its on again. And dont belive for a second that US wont approve israeli strike. If US are so concerned about Israel start a new war in the region, well why dont US stop them? Obviously the concern is zero in america, they approve israeli strikes. If it wasnt for US acceptance Israel would never start a new war. They always need american green light.
Regarding photos. Thats no evidence to begin with, and note that in the israeli media they are talking about a suspicious “truck”. Oh where have I heard the fairytale about the mobile truck? Oh yes Iraq.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobile_weapons_laboratory
Iraqi nuclear weapons, Niger letters, The laptop containing all information about nuclear weapons http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=21994
or why not bring up when US urged to build nuclear weapons.
CIA Doesn’t Want You To Know It Gave Iran Nuclear Blueprints
http://www.emptywheel.net/2011/01/06/cia-doesnt-want-you-to-know-it-gave-iran-nuclear-blueprints/
Enough of this warmongering israeli madness.
Yes — I remember a van or trailer in which biologic weapons were being concocted…somehow the trailer was a giveaway for biologic weaponization. Go figure.
Fox News is reporting that the Israeli ministers who had opposed the strike are now in favor:
“Sources close to senior Israeli cabinet officials told Fox News that senior ministers who used to oppose a strike are now for it.”
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/11/05/us-keeps-focus-on-sanctions-for-iran-amid-speculation-over-israeli-strike/
I’m not seeing any follow-up on this so don’t know how plausible or believable this story is but FWIW.
fox news and believable in the same post, how daring 🙂
Hence the FWIW, aka Possibly Bullshit Detected.
To be fair, John says he doesn’t know how believable it is.
However, if Fox News is saying it, we can be sure that Kevin Rupert Murdoch, aka “The Dirty Digger” wants us to believe it.
My own impression is that Obama himself doesn’t like being led by the nose at all, let alone being led by the nose to a potential nuclear war. However, some of the leading by the nose is being done by people either actually in his administration, or in powerful positions in the Democratic Party and it’s difficult for him to kick against the traces.
The Werrity affair has removed the only cheerleader for Israeli action from the UK government, though Cameron is a compulsive appeaser and is probably only dithering over which side he appeases, other than Merkel and Sarkozy, of course.
Perhaps Cameron, and indeed Obama, could have their thinking crystalized by asking The Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, what the financial consequences of a war with Iran might be.
We’re in a position where the financial and economic reaction to a conflict really could do more harm than even a limited nuclear exchange. Damage the world economy any further, and hundreds of thousands will die in consequence. Perhaps rather more than hundreds of thousands: the economy is now the life support of seven billion souls and its not in good shape.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/checkpoint-washington/post/that-secret-syrian-nuclear-facility-its-a-textile-factory-researchers-say/2011/11/04/gIQA0MV7mM_blog.html
This is smoke screen. There is no way the US wouldn’t know about an Israeli attack, and if there is one, you can surely bet that certain actors in the US government pushed it forward and had it sanctioned. The very opposite effect will result from such a mistake. Iran is not a national security threat to America whatsoever. Another unjustified invasion, this time, of a country with a solid defense doctrine, war-tested, 4x the size of Iraq (UK, Germany, France and Spain combined!) with 100 million strong plus a large and influential diaspora population, with all kinds of terrain – nearly every kind you can imagine, and a continuous civilization and culture spanning millennium, even at one time saving Judaism entirely.
Makes sense… if you are purposely committing national suicide (taking the US down from within). I turn a suspicious eye to ALL the war mongers. It smells of treason.
the idea of Israel ‘going rogue’ was not something I thought could be possible — way too big and a pre-emptive offensive operation; so it made sense that Netanyahu and Barak were only doing a war dance as a threat since otherwise the US would be moving naval and other military assets to striking distance for support.
so if there is a rogue operation planned, it must be the case that it is intended as an independent operation, at least at the outset. Maybe Netanyahu and Barak are real sure one strike will rap-up the whole neutering Iran of nuclear facilities.
If Israel “goes its own way” then surely the US Congress will want to encumber further payments to Israel for this high-handedness. Unquestionably, the US will hold up $3 billion in military aid and further UN support to teach Bibi and the handful of warmongers in Israel and AIPAC a lesson they won’t soon forget, a lesson about who is the puppet and who the puppeter. Surely, this is right, is it not?
I am being facetious, in case someone doesn’t get it.
RE: “I am being facetious, in case someone doesn’t get it.” ~ David
MY REPLY: I was fairly certain of that. The only other possibilities were that you had just arrived here on Earth from some distant galaxy, or that you were stark, raving mad. And since your comment was coherent, AND IT WAS NOT IN ALL CAPS, I eliminated the possibility that you were a lunatic.
But, thanks for confirming that you are not a recent arrival from some distant galaxy. Rumors get started so easily these days.
P.S. Stark, raving mad – http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/stark-raving-mad.html
Thanks for not blowing my cover as a real, feeling human being. And the Giant Head thanks you as well.