In the aftermath of Mubarak’s extraplanetary speech in which he seemed to be living in a parallel Egyptian universe to the one inhabited by the hundreds of thousands in Tahrir Square and elsewhere in Egypt, the Father of the People was playing a game of chicken with the nation as the prize. There are three players: Mubarak, the army, and the people. The people will clearly not blink first. They are in it till the end. But Mubarak appears to be daring the army to intervene and expects that they won’t have the nerve to do so. If the army does blink first, then what will happen? Mubarak and Suleiman either unleash their thugs and secret police and thousands die in order to suppress the revolution. Or perhaps the army joins in and even more die.
Alternatively, suppose the army refuses to blink, calls Mubarak’s bluff and stages a soft coup in order to allow the revolution to move forward toward its democratic destiny. This is what Mohammed al Baradei has summoned it to do. But one has to wonder why it hasn’t done so already? Perhaps division in the ranks between old guard senior officers loyal to their patrons who got them this far, and the younger junior officers who still retain a connection to the street?
You can tell something extraordinary is going on when even I come to admire words from the pen of Tom Friedman. Even Tom the plutocrat understands the moment we are living and he has returned to his roots as a terrific interpreter of events which he once was so long ago before he was co-opted and bought by the power elites. Even Tom has this terrific comment about Mubarak’s out of touchness:
This man is staggeringly out of touch with what is happening inside his country. This is Rip Van Winkle meets Facebook.
At any rate, something will have to give. Tomorrow will clearly dawn on a nation even more firmly resolved to rid itself of this pestilence. I only hope the protesters will retain their remarkable sense of discipline. Just watching their resolve, their steadfastness, their restraint in the face of violent provocation–how can anyone speak of a nation that would descend into chaos if Mubarak falls? For shame on the autocrats of Saudi Arabia, Israel, the Gulf States and elsewhere who raise the specter of Islamist bloodbaths as if Egypt was in the throes of the Al Qaeda. Anyone spending a few minutes watching Al Jazeera’s live video feed can see that these are a disciplined people, one that has earned its revolution. There is no looting. There are no acts of revenge. There is are no acts of religious intolerance.
If we can, we must not let anyone take it away from them.
Over the past three weeks I’ve often written here in fear that external powers or events might wrest the revolution from the hands of the Egyptian people. That Obama might stand aside at a critical moment, that Bibi might insert his strident, irrelevant rhetoric and muddy the waters, that the army or Mubarak might steal the show. But over the past 24 hours I’ve come to realize that no one can take this victory away from the people. It is their achievement and they will not be denied. Whatever happens they will have won and they very likely will come out of this with a result something like what they are now demanding. It is only a question of how and when, but no longer a question of “if.”
If Mubarak refused to step down after all of the hullabaloo over his expected resignation last night, you can be sure he knows something more than we do. I suspect it is full support by the US, Israel, Saudis, et al. The Egyptian people will get about as much democracy as did the Chinese students in Tianenman Square. This will all be forgotten in three weeks, when Iran becomes headline news again.
Will you now eat crow or your hat??
Three weeks? How about this morning? I suspected last night (gave up and went to sleep after midnight, EST) that Mubarak’s speech was a bluff. President Obama’s comments were as clear as can be: the US does not suppport Mubarak. More important, Egyptioan pro-democracy activists were already spreading to surround government buildings. Score: democracy 1, despotism 0.
Oh, and, no, this was not all about Israel.
Apparently, Richard, you don’t read before you reply. See my below and check the times. Nevertheless, let’s see where we are in three weeks. Mubarak may be gone, but Egypt is still under the iron heel of US and Israel.
Gene – stop dreaming! Israel never had an “iron heel” over Egypt.
Israel gave back every inch to Egypt (except the Gaza strip – what a mistake!) in the peace agreement, and all it got for it was a piece of signed paper. I’ve never seen a single Egyptian tourist in Israel, the embassy has been closed for god knows how long, and the Egyptians cynically failed to stop smuggling arms through tunnels to Hamas.
the only reason that there is no beligerence between the countries is that both sides tired of blood and tears, there was never any love here.
If that’s our “iron heel” then the metals bourse has collapsed totally.
And lets play guessing now. The new regime will cancel the peace agreement with Israel? Close the Suez canal for Israeli shipping? Do all those who demonstrated want to go for a full scale war wilh Israel?
No, my guess is that the peace agreement was and is the best strategy for both sides and will not be unilaterally annuled. They will keep the border with Gaza under strict supervision (so as not to have mass immigration from there to Egypt) . They will spend a long time dealing with their many internal problems and won’t bother themselves with the neighbours for a long time.
That’s my guess.
Can you tell me one thing Israel ever offered Egypt after the peace treaty was signed? Why should it maintain an embassy when Avigdor Lieberman tells Egypt’s president publicly he can “go to Hell???”
Can you tell me why it’s Egypt’s job to be Israel’s junior cop & do Israel’s bidding & supports its interests?
Richard:
What did Israel offer Egypt?
Israel offered massive Israeli tourism to Egypt, especially Sinai.
It withdrew from all the territories it occupied – no small feat considering the West Bank and Golan Heights, thus giving major honour back to Egypt after the losses of three wars (losses to both sides).
It has been at peace for 30 years without incidents! (cf. the film “life of Brian” – “what have the Romans ever done for us?”)
The embassy has been closed long before Lieberman.
Egypt agreed by the treaty to lookafter it’s borders, it has failed regarding contraband (but succeeded concerning human passage). That’s not being “junior cop” it’s keeping an agreement.
Isaeli tourism to Sinai was fueled by a massive need for Israelis to find cheap close-by tourist alternatives allowing them to exit their own claustrophobic existence in Israel. I don’t know that this was such an altruistic endeavor on Israel’s part.
As for returning territory, I asked what Israel did for Egypt AFTER the treaty was signed.
As for borders, very few borders in the world are air tight. Many are downright porous. Israel hasn’t offered Egypt or the Arab states any real reason why they should do Israel any favors. So why would you expect any?
Richard:
The withdrawal was after the signing of the peace treaty and part of the stipulation of the treaty. The final withdrawal took place from Taba after arbitration many years after the signing.
“Altruism” is not the point, Egypt has gained financially from Israeli tourism whatever the motives of the Israeli tourists. One of the Israeli peoples dreams is “to wipe hummous in Damascus” – when there will be peace there (probably after a revolution there) Israeli tourism will probably flood the area.
I don’t expect any favours from Egypt – just to keep to the terms of the treaty as signed. It’s ABC of international law to abide by your commitments even when the government changes.
RE: “If we can, we must not let anyone take it away from them.” – R.S.
FROM FIREDOGLAKE: Please sign our petition to Congress to immediately vote to cut off any American military aid to the Egyptian government. – http://action.firedoglake.com/page/s/egyptfunding
FROM USAction/TrueMajority.org
SEND AN E-MAIL: Tell Congress to invest in civilian, not military aid for Egypt – http://act.truemajorityaction.org/p/dia/action/public/?action_KEY=182
If you want to help Egypt, start by asking Congress to invest in its people, not it’s military. ~ Congress is about to set a new budget for 2012, and how much and what kind of aid we give Egypt and other countries is under discussion.
Nearly every global player must be involved in the meantime in the Egyptian-mess behind the public scene. Obviously the US, Israel, the EU as “the West” but also the Russians, the Chinese, the Turks and, last not least, the Iranians. All these as “outsiders”. The arab neighbours like Syria, Jordania and Saudi Arabia as well. Iran for example, must not fear an attack by USrael as long as the egyptian case is not solved…
This makes me very pessimistic about the possibility of success of this street-revolution in Cairo. But I wish them all the best!
Well, this is already yesterday’s news – Mubarak did play chicken and escaped the coup!
He wasn’t so stupid after all, waited for the opportunity and planned how to export as much as possible of his property before resigning and running away from a trial.
Before Richard jumps all over me for my above comment, let me just say “Whoopie” for the time being.
Indeed!!!