Barack Obama has a lot of faults, but sometimes at critical junctures he gets things pitch perfect. So was his speech tonight on the situation in Egypt, in which he all but told Mubarak his time is up. What was amazing about the speech that the words he delivered were subtle, the message couched in diplomacy-speak. He didn’t direct, he didn’t command. That wasn’t his place. But anyone with any sense could tell what the real meaning was: neither your people nor the world will settle for anything less than you going, and going now (note the last word in the passage below):
…We have spoken out on behalf of the need for change. After his speech tonight, I spoke directly to President Mubarak. He recognizes that the status quo is not sustainable and that a change must take place. Indeed, all of us who are privileged to serve in positions of political power do so at the will of our people. Through thousands of years, Egypt has known many moments of transformation. The voices of the Egyptian people tell us that this is one of those moments…
Now, it is not the role of any other country to determine Egypt’s leaders. Only the Egyptian people can do that. What is clear — and what I indicated tonight to President Mubarak — is my belief that an orderly transition must be meaningful, it must be peaceful, and it must begin now.
Also pitch-perfect (and doubtless causing much heartache in Tel Aviv and Aipac headquarters) was this reference to the players who should be part of Egypt’s future government:
Furthermore, the process must include a broad spectrum of Egyptian voices and opposition parties. It should lead to elections that are free and fair. And it should result in a government that’s not only grounded in democratic principles, but is also responsive to the aspirations of the Egyptian people.
For those who can’t tell the players without a scorecard, this was surely an implicit reference to the Islamic Brotherhood. For an American president to even implicitly say that an Islamist party belongs in an Arab government is close to revolutionary. Now, maybe Bibi wishes he’d extended that settlement freeze a few months ago! This is what you get when you cross an American president.
What will be interesting is to see how Egypt negotiates the next few months and the transition to its next government. What type of role with the Brotherhood and Islamists play in the next phase? Will there be a way to integrate them successfully into electoral life, into a new democratic system? If there is, then this could be a serious blow to Iran. Thus far, the most prominent model of Islamist rule the world has seen is the Iranian republic. Not a very persuasive or appealing one. If Egypt and the world can midwife a new regime that incorporates many of the disparate interests of the Egyptian population, then it would give Iran a real run for its money. It would say there is an alternative. There is a way for Islamists to be in government, while not having a state that tortures and torments its non-Islamist foes.
Such a government would probably honor its past treaty commitments into the Sinai peace agreement. But it would also no longer be Israel pawn or patsy. It might actually refuse to act as backup to Israel’s Gaza siege. It might press Israel as hard as Turkey has. In fact, I hope to high heaven that the Turkish Islamists can reach out to their Egyptian brothers and sisters and advise them about the best way to pursue their new political agenda. It seems to me that if Egypt could be governed as Turkey has been, that this would be the most powerful Islamic rejoinder to the Iranian mullahs. Two Muslim countries that listen to the people, acknowledge their Muslim identity, but show respect for secular and non-Muslim citizens. I realize that the Turkish model isn’t perfect especially regarding the Kurds, but the record of the current Turkish government is far better than Iran’s overall.
The responses from Israel and her more strident supporters continue to be out of synch with both the reality in Egypt and the way its revolution is being viewed by the rest of the world. Haaretz’s headline is:
Israel urges West: Make sure new Egypt regime honors peace deal
Israel clearly is of the opinion that everyone in the world should be devoting 90% of their time to obsessing about its interests in the world. It may come as a shock to the Israelis that Egypt right about now has far more important things to worry about than its peace treaty with Israel. There will be time to devote to this issue once there is a new government in place. But to shrei about that now is simply tone-deaf. For another dose of cluelessness there’s always Yossi Klein Halevi, ex-JDL leader, who graces the op-ed page of, what else, the NY Times, Israel: Alone, Again?. Can’t you just hear those mournful violins keening for poor little Israel whose Egyptian sugar-daddy is about to give up the ghost. Where will poor Israel turn, alone and friendless in a cold, barren Middle East?
Give us a break, would ya? For starters, Israel can cultivate relationships with its neighbors just like any other normal country in the world. Instead of using its military to impose Israeli will, it might try looking for common interests as other nations do who have peaceful, secure relations with their neighbors.
Give US a break, would ya, Richard? If you think Obama or the US & Israel aren’t going to have a hand in choosing Mubarack’s successor, you’re even more naive than I thought. Mubarack’s disappearance from the scene has been planned for a long time. Probably the only thing that was unanticipated was the Arab street awakening, and now they have to be mollified. Otherwise, business as usual.
I knew I’d hear from ya Gene. I almost gave you a shout out in the post anticipating this. But I have to admit that this was pretty mild coming from you. I thought you’d let Obama have it with both barrels as you usually do.
Nah, I’m trying to be polite these days. But I do luv ya, Richard.
Obama is saying the right things now, but I think the Administration is smart enough to see they can’t do anything that looks like they’re trying to replace one strong man with another. I think that’s what they’d really like to do, but it doesn’t appear as though the Egyptian people will fall for it.
If the US government (and also pundits like Tom Friedman) really cared about Arab democracy, they’d be saying some critical things about how the PA jails its political opponents. But they don’t.
With the anticipated fall of the curtain on Hosni Mabarak’s 30 year rule over Egypt definitely on the horizon, possibly even nearer if pressures continue to build, what then of the future for Israelis and Palestinians?
Still locked in their incessant struggle for dominance in the region, both sides must view this veritable tide of revolt sweeping through many Arab nations with a mixture of concern and hope. Concern that the present order of things may soon be vanishing forever and hope that a new reality will come into being, one having a greater potential for change than any other that has gone before.
At this moment, the calls for more democracy and freedom are very loud and events would seem to be driving such aspirations along at a cracking pace. In Israel, the ever-present preoccupation with security threats, both internal and external, real or imagined, has tended to diminish any similar feelings. Although this attitude is, perhaps, understandable, it can hardly be considered ideal, Positive attitudes toward democracy and freedom often take a back seat when so many perceive themselves living too much on the edge, with national and personal extinction an everyday possibility. Needs must when the devil rides.
This state of mind is difficult to overcome, even though it only makes the situation worse than it already is.
Without some guarantee of safe passage through a minefield of fears and doubts, progress of any sort must remain immensely slow and, given the speed at which things are currently moving, any such small, incremental steps do not sit well with the temper of the times.
What is required now must present a distinct departure from all past forms of political and social engineering.
Matters need to be speeded up, a conclusion reached, a consensus obtained, a result recorded.
What, I wonder, are the odds on that happening?
Come tomorrow, they could be a lot better than we think.
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“ what then of the future for Israelis and Palestinians?
Still locked in their incessant struggle for dominance in the region…”
Palestinians are not now and never have been concerned about dominance of the region. Palestinians just want to be out from under the bootheel of Israel with their own independent, sovereign state.
It is astonishing that Israel demands the “west” to make sure that Egypt honours in future the peace treaty knowing that Israelis in reality demand much more. It is as unrealistic like Estonia or Finland would demand the “west” guaranty and to make sure that Russia acts in future like Estonia or Finland want.
Why should a big nation of 80 million people be demanded to act in the way which suites best the 5 million Jews living next door, but is surely not in the interest of people of Egypt. In reality Israel is demanding that Egypt is forced acting like a client state avoiding all critics (when it should be presented, but Israel doesn’t want to hear it) and doing basically everything Israel wants to be done. A foreign politically weak and less moral Egypt during the last decades has made it possible for Israel to behave as it has done. A more moral and self respecting Egypt would have forced long time ago with peaceful means Israel to seek real compromises and learn to behave. That Egypt would have not accepted keeping almost silent those constant actions against Lebanon and Palestinians.
That Israel-Egypt peace treaty has in it nothing else special than demilitarization of Sinai and selling crude oil and gas to Israel. If honouring means honouring the both Camp David agreements, then Israel has some “problems” in respect of that term honouring. If Egypt lets Israeli ships go through Suez canal, keeps military out of Sinai and sells oil and gas, what more can Israel or the “west” demand? If the new Egypt doesn’t any more provide the silent back rest for Israel in its attempts of keeping regional hegemony what can the west do? The fastest way to reduce religious political extremism in Arab and Muslim world is to reduce the Jewish religious, military and political extremism. No settlers and settlements, no nukes of Judaism = 80 percent less “Al Qaida” and Muslim Brotherhood.
Obama has aligned himself on the WRONG SIDE of history. After Mubarak and Obama’s “coordinated” speeches “pro-Mubaraks” immediately surfaced last night instigating violence. Obama gave Mubarak a pretext to hang on and sowed division by depriving the Egyptian people of a history-making event, the ouster of this dictator, and in essence squashing the revolution with a carrot (the anouncement Mubarak wouldn’t run in elections) and a stick to be weilded against these people by Mubarak should they want more.
In essence by unleashing his thugs in plain clothes, Mubarak can commit murder with impunity by alleging that the people (actually his thugs) are responsible for this violence not him.
I honestly hope no one is fooled by what is going on here. This was carefully choreographed between Mubarak and the Obama Administration. Zionists are now trotting out the term “benevolent dictators” on other sites.
Zionists are directly responsible for Obama’s spinelessness in this situation. By giving Mubarak carrots to feed to Egyptians piecemeal; he in essence deprived them of their dream to rid themselves of this power-hungry pest. I’m so disgusted with Obama’s interference, I can scream. He is solely responsible for this heartbreaking outcome! What an abject coward!
Don’t scream, Kalea. Even the Egyptians on the street are calling Obama a “Black Bush.”
http://www.counterpunch.org/kassem02022011.html
But what the hell, he’s only doing the job he was hired for. Why should you expect otherwise?
after the tragicomic Hondurian farce, I really wonder how it’s possible for people to still take Obama seriously when he talks about democracy and the right of people to choose their own leaders. Seems a similar game is in place for Egypt right now. as for “the west” french/English media are already selling Suleiman as the next natural boss, and already try to tarnish El-Baradei (you know, these “street interviews” where the last person to be quoted is always the one who says something like ‘El-Baradei can’t represent us, he comes from outside the country yadda yadda”), not to mention the hilarious BBC videos presenting muslim brotherhood as the worst disaster the earth would ever see… Simply disgusting…
Who is going to get Israel to honor it’s part of the peace deal … It wad conditional on it reaching an accord with the Palestinians.