Proving that a recent low AJC 2008 survey result was a fluke, a new NYU poll by Steven Cohen finds Barack Obama winning 67% of the Jewish vote:
The earlier poll had found him winning only 57%. The Republican Jewish Coalition and Jewish media had taken the opportunity to trumpet the limitations of Obama’s appeal to Jewish voters. In my own post on the AJC poll, I noted the results were tabulated just after the Republican convention and so skewed by the favorable impression it had created.
Though the NYU poll also was done in early September, its results are much more encouraging. I have no idea why two polls done at the same time would reach such different results, but if I were the AJC I’d ask for my money back:
American Jews favor Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama by a ratio of two-to-one, according to survey results being released Monday by researchers at New York University.
The data [was] taken from a nationwide poll conducted in early September…
I was also astonished that 7% of Jews who classify themselves as conservative Republicans were planning to vote for Obama (versus 1% in the general population).
Cohen, extrapolating from the improvement in Obama’s prospects since September estimates Obama’s Jewish support currently at 75%, which is entirely in line with recent Democratic presidential contests.
Given the tens of millions spent by right-wing Republican Jewish donors and groups (Republican Jewish Coalition, Clarion Fund, etc.) to promote McCain and smear Obama, it appears that, like the proverbial Casey at the bat, they’ve once again struck out mightily. They sank oodles of cash into smearing Democrats in the 2006 mid-term elections and it didn’t work then. Glad to say not much has changed. Either the Jewish Republicans need a new strategy or a new product or both.
Very interesting post, Richard. It seems to suggest that 2/3 to 3/4 of American Jews do not drink the Clarion cool-aid about “radical Islam,” etc. But maybe we need to wait for a more recent poll so we can really see if the DVDs had little/no effect.
Dan
I think the reason for this “Fahnenflucht” derives from the disastrous BushCo policy the last 8 years and the Republican campaign the last 2-3 weeks. People wants change It is remarkable,but also understandable that 7X as many conservative Jews are abandoning ship. I believe they have had it with the neoconservative agenda,and don’t want to be associated with that policy any more . Sort of “Not In My Name”-reaction.