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Mohammad Said Kalash, "Offering Reconciliation" exhibit (photo: Ilan Amihai)

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Posts Tagged ‘spying’

Arad Exposed Secret U.S. Agreement to Jump-Start Israeli Civilian Nuclear Power Industry

Wednesday, May 18th, 2011
uzi arad and netanyahu

Uzi Arad and Bibi Netanyahu toast during happier days (Moshe Milner)

Yesterday, I reported a story from Yediot that claimed Uzi Arad had given a U.S. diplomat a copy of the secret Lindenstraus report on the second Lebanon war.  Turns out, there were two accurate claims in the report–that it involved the U.S. and a secret report.  But the rest was wrong.

Today, a different story has been reported by Channel 2 about the reason for Arad’s brusque firing by Bibi Netanyahu from his senior post as national security advisor.  The news report says that Arad briefed Israeli reporters and revealed that during the prime minister’s July 2010 visit to the White House, the U.S. and Israel secretly upgraded the level of their nuclear cooperation.  This, according to Haaretz, followed on the heels of Obama’s surprise endorsement of a nuclear-free Middle East in which all states endorsed the NPT.  This raised fears in Israel that pressure would be brought to bear against it as a non-signatory.  The agreement was meant to reassure Israel.

Since the 1970s, Israel has been punished for not signing the NPT by being prohibited from building a civilian nuclear program.  Only one other country in the world is an NPT non-signatory which received a “waiver” to build its own civilian nuclear power facility with U.S. approval: India.  This is what Arad was telling the world.  Israel had achieved what only one other country in the world had.  The ability to thumb one’s nose at NPT while having civilian nuclear power: like having your cake and eating it too.

Given the sensitivity of the subject, considering Iran’s nuclear program and Israeli-U.S. hyperventilation about the threat it poses, Arad’s revelation can only have complicated relations between the U.S. and other Mideast states.  Further, considering the U.S. was secretly upgrading cooperation with an Israel which has refused to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty, while it railed against Iran (an NPT signatory) for having the temerity to want what Israel has had for decades–well, the hypocrisy is breathtaking.

That is what this 7th Eye report explicitly confirms, saying that the U.S. offered to provide Israel nuclear fuel for civilian uses:

Because Israel was a serious, responsible state.

…As opposed to a certain other Middle East state who didn’t yet have nuclear weapons, was an NPT signatory, but nevertheless was unserious and untrustworthy…

Though Israel has Dimona, which produces fuel for its nuclear weapons, it does not have civilian nuclear power capacity.  That’s what the U.S. was offering.   Materiel and know-how that could begin a civilian nuclear power industry in Israel, to be used by Israel to produce not only electric power, but also in technological processes and to power various types of sophisticated equipment.  Israel, of course, viewed this as a Good Housekeeping seal of approval from the White House that its status as a nuclear power was in the good graces of Washington.

All this of course put the lie to U.S. efforts to inhibit nuclear proliferation both in Iran and throughout the Middle East.  How could we look at such countries with a straight face and tell them they should remain nuclear-free, when we were rewarding Israel’s defiance of NPT with secret accords and other goodies?

Senior Israeli minister Yuval Steinitz went further in his own remarks and said that the agreement with the U.S. put in on a par with India (another NPT refuser) as a nation with which the U.S. engaged in similar secret nuclear agreements.  The message Steinitz sought to convey was that Israel, like India, could maintain its favored relationship with the U.S. while remaining outside the NPT.  He went even farther in calling the agreement a “historic declaration.”  This naturally didn’t sit well with the U.S., which could see all manner of countries, nuclear and wanna-be, lining up for similar treatment.  Not to mention, both Arad and Steinitz were explicitly undermining Obama’s call for NPT to be accepted throughout the Middle East.

Not surprisingly, the Obama administration immediately denied that there had been any agreement between itself and Israel about nuclear cooperation.  And just like that, Israel’s civilian nuclear power dreams went up in smoke.  Needless to say, this sort of thing makes a president very cranky.  So that’s why Uzi Arad was canned.  Considering the level of threat Arad had already posed to U.S. intelligence given the Rosen-Aipac spy scandal, there was surely little love lost between Arad and this administration and the latter would have shed few tears at his firing.  Haaretz also notes that poor Uzi has also lost his top level security clearance for his indiscretion.  So his career inside the security establishment seems over, at least for now.  But people like Arad in Israeli politics seem to come back like a bad penny.

The irony of Bibi being off today to none other than Washington to meet the president who originally promised (or so Israel believed) the nuclear cooperation deal isn’t lost on many Israelis or on Obama.  Couldn’t be worse timing to have such a incident clouding such a meeting.

One final word, Arad claims that he let this news slip accidentally in a briefing he gave to Israeli journalists.  If you believe this I have a bridge I want to sell you.  In fact, Arad has to say this because if he leaked the material knowingly, then he could  (and probably would) be prosecuted.  By claiming it was an accident, he makes it harder for the prosecutor to build a case against him.  The attorney general, in considering bringing charges, decided not to.  So as I wrote yesterday, Anat Kamm gets up to nine years for leaking documents far less damaging to Israel’s interests than what Arad did.  The latter almost single-handedly sunk Israel’s chance of a civilian nuclear power industry.  What did Kamm do?  Revealed that a general aided and abetted commission of a war crime for which he was not, and will never be prosecuted.  In Israel, justice isn’t blind.  It looks out for the powerful and tramples the lowly and the weak.

Uzi Arad, Former National Security Advisor, Fired for Leaking Secret Report

Tuesday, May 17th, 2011
uzi arad leak

Yediot reports: 'Uzi Arad leaked to the U.S. government the controller's report on the second Lebanon war--so Wikileaks reveals'

Several months ago, Uzi Arad, former senior Mossad officer and then national security advisor to prime minister Netanyahu rather abruptly announced he was quitting his post.  At the time, rumors and speculation were rife about the reasons.  But no one dreamed they would be as provocative as this.  Turns out that Arad leaked the Controller’s secret report on the second Lebanon war to a U.S. diplomat in Israel.  After a long Shin Bet investigation, Arad was identified as the source and Bibi fired him.

uzi arad

Uzi Arad (Yanai Yehiel)

The Israeli media is claiming that the attorney general declined to prosecute Arad because he resigned immediately and because the leak was inadvertent.  But I don’t understand how leaking a report can be “inadvertent.”  Besides, skilled Mossad operatives don’t leak material by accident.  It just doesn’t happen.

Arad made lots of enemies inside even Bibi’s staff with his abrasive style.  Not to mention the role in played in “running” Larry Franklin and the Rosen Aipac spy scandal.  So as far as I’m concerned he got his just desserts.  In fact, he probably deserves to be prosecuted.

If anyone can tell me what’s the difference between Uzi Arad’s leak and Anat Kamm’s and why he deserves a get out of jail card and she deserves nine years in prison, I’ll buy you an ice cream cone at my favorite gelateria.  In fact, Arad’s crime is worse since he leaked a secret government report about a serious Israeli military misadventure to a foreign government, while Kamm leaked her materials to an Israeli reporter.  Oh, that’s right, Anat was just a girl file clerk in a general’s office while Arad is a former senior Mossad officer and fixture of the security establishment.  That’s the difference.  No hypocrisy here.  H/t to Jerry Haber for that notion and also to Dena Shunra for finding the headline pictured above.

I’d be grateful to any reader who can locate the original Wikileaks cable if it’s been published anywhere or online.

I just discovered a Jerusalem Post story which makes the ridiculous claim that Arad’s sin was to discuss “electric and energy” issues with a reporter and inadvertently leak something he shouldn’t have.  But an Israeli friend had the clever idea of doing a Google search on the terms “Uzi Arad” and “atomic energy,” which reveals that the Jerusalem Post article was actually censored.  In it’s original form it said that he discussed “atomic energy” with the reporter.  It is possible that someone who discusses anything related to Israel’s nuclear program would be fired for such a leak, though I doubt this would happen if they were discussing purely civilian uses of nuclear power.

And a final note to the Rotterniks who may be apoplectic about yet another scoop they read here which offends them.  I don’t scare easily and death threats, even ones which indicate what caliber bullet you plan to put in my brain, don’t scare me.

Shabak Alleged to Have Murdered Detained 16 Year-Old Israeli Palestinian Boy

Friday, February 18th, 2011

Important Update: After numerous attempts to confirm the information published here and being unable to do so, I am sorry to say that at best the account is uncorroborated, and at worst it’s possible the information was not correct (or perhaps credible) to begin with.

I will continue my attempts to verify the details.   Meanwhile many thanks to those Israelis who went out of their way to make inquiries on my behalf and apologies to my readers if this story turns out to have been wrong.

An Israeli source confirms the horrifying news that one of the five Israeli Palestinians detained a few days ago in secret by the Shabak has been killed today (or possibly yesterday) in custody in Jalameh prison near Haifa.  The victim was Ashraf al-Baladi of the northern Israeli Palestinian village of Sachnin.  Here is a description of what happened to him: he was bound to a chair, he either fell over or was pushed onto the floor. The fall cracked his head open, punctured a lung, and broke a rib.  The secret police didn’t know what to do.  They couldn’t bring him to a hospital for treatment since he’d been secretly detained.

A doctor was summoned but he arrived too late.  The boy died shortly thereafter.

I have asked representatives of Israeli and Israeli Palestinian NGOs to demand an accounting from the Interior Ministry and Shabak.  So far to no avail.  I’m going to renew my appeal to anyone who can contact either agency to tell us whether they have these individuals in custody, and if so where they are held, and under what charges.  Allow them to consult with attorneys.  And account for the death of a minor child while in Shabak detention.

Can’t all of us human rights activists put our heads together and unravel this mystery and force the secret police to account for their actions?

Here We Go Again, Another Day Another Gag: Shabak Holds Israeli Palestinian Incommunicado on Espionage Charges

Tuesday, February 15th, 2011

By now, the scenario is down pat.  Israel’s Mukhabarat, the Shabak barges into an Israeli Palestinian home in the dead of night with shouts and the brandishing of guns.  Children are petrified, spouses as well.  They trample through a home, confiscate every electronic device in sight including the children’s and haul off a man to a secret cell somewhere in Israel’s version of Lyubyanka or Evin Prison.  There the prisoner/victim is detained incommunicado under terrorism/espionage charges.  He’s interrogated for hours on end, deprived of sleep, shouted and screamed at.  Names, places and dates are demanded.  He’s tied to a chair.  He doesn’t even bother to ask for a lawyer.  If he did they’d laugh or spit in his face.  Lawyer?  What does he think this is?  The new Egypt?

In most countries it’s called torture.   In Israel it’s SOP for Israeli Palestinian victims of the police state.  The latest victim, according to an Israeli source, is Muhammad Danef, born in 1968, making him 42 years old.  [UPDATE: Four other Palestinians were arrested with him.  When I have more information I'll update this.  UPDATE I: I now have the names of two other detainees: Muhamad Bandayan, age 27 and Iyad Tubaba, age 36.  They are Palestinian residents of East Jerusalem and being held in a Shabak facility or prison outside Jerusalem.  UPDATE II: The remaining two detainees are from Sachnin. They are Samir Hubeiza, b. 1962 (49) and Ashraf El-Baladi, b. 1995 - he is a minor (16). They are being detained in a Shabak location near Haifa.]

The way I view these cases is just like a child-kidnapping.  If you can expose the case early, you may be able to stop the abuse and guarantee a few minimal rights to the accused a bit earlier in the process.

So I call on any Israeli who has any information about this arrest to help me expose it so that this man’s basic civil rights are, if not guaranteed, or at least accorded to him in a minimal fashion.  If you are an Israeli journalist, please inquire of the Shabak about this man so that he is no long a nameless member of the disappeared prisoner class.  This man has a name and a family and a history and a community.  Let’s restore some semblance of dignity to him.

Muhammad Danef, whoever and whereever you are and whatever you have done–there are those who care about you and demand you be accorded basic human rights.  Shabak–stop the torture, give this man a name.  Give this man access to his attorney.  Give this man his rights.

Amnesty International Condemns Makhoul Sentence

Monday, January 31st, 2011

An Amnesty press release:

Amnesty International Calls Jailing of Human Rights Defender in Israel “Very Disturbing”

(London) — Amnesty International urged the Israeli authorities to end their harassment of Palestinian human rights activists after a veteran Palestinian campaigner was jailed for nine years earlier today and given an additional one-year suspended sentence.

Ameer Makhoul, a longstanding Palestinian activist, was convicted on various counts of having contact with enemies of Israel and espionage after a plea bargain agreement at his trial. He was originally charged with an even more serious offense, “assisting an enemy in war”, which could have carried a life sentence, but that was dropped by the prosecution when he agreed to a plea bargain.

“Ameer Makhoul’s jailing is a very disturbing development and we will be studying the details of the sentencing as soon as we can,” said Philip Luther, Amnesty International’s Middle East and North Africa deputy director.

“Ameer Makhoul is well known for his human rights activism on behalf of Palestinians in Israel and those living under Israeli occupation. We fear that this may be the underlying reason for his imprisonment.”

“We are also extremely concerned by allegations that he was tortured and otherwise ill-treated following his arrest on May 6 last year in a dawn police raid on his home in Haifa, by the fact that he was not permitted to see his lawyers for 12 days after his arrest, and by the gag order that prohibited media coverage on the case during this time.”

In the United States, Amnesty International USA urged President Obama to call on Israel to end the harassment of human rights defenders.

Under the Israeli penal code, people can be charged with “espionage” even if the information passed onto an “enemy agent” is publicly known and even if there is no intent to do harm through passing on the information.

The prosecution claimed that a Jordanian civil society activist who Makhoul was in contact with was a Hizbullah agent, and that he gave this person information on the locations of a military base and General Security Services offices.

The confession on which Makhoul’s conviction and sentencing were based was admitted as evidence by the court, despite allegations that this statement was made under duress and that he was tortured during his interrogation. It also appears that the information allegedly conveyed by Makhoul was publicly available.

Makhoul’s sentencing comes at a time when human rights activists are coming under increasing pressure in Israel and being accused by some in the government and by members of the Knesset of being “anti-Israel” and unpatriotic because of their reporting on and campaigning against human rights violations in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories.

Makhoul is the director of Ittijah, the Union of Arab Community-Based Associations, based in Haifa.

Addameer, the Palestinian prisoner support group based in Ramallah called for the PA, EU and other western representatives to demand Makhoul’s release and to raise the prisoner-victim’s plight with Israeli officials at every meeting they hold.

Makhoul Sentenced to 9 Years, Israeli Democracy Dies Yet Another Death

Sunday, January 30th, 2011
makhoul in court

Ameer Makhoul in an Israeli court

Ameer Makhoul, Israeli-Palestinian community leader, was sentenced by an Israeli court to nine years in prison for allegedly spying for Hezbollah against Israel.  The court also added an additional year to his sentence on conditional terms.  This was essentially the sentence the prosecution had requested, with the defense asking for seven years.  The court, as it almost always is in security cases, proved to be rubber stamp for the State.

Makhoul has two teen-age daughters a third of whose lives he will have missed by the time he is freed.  That’s IF he is freed as the State has a habit of extending sentences for prisoners for whom it has special distaste (cf. the recent case of Abdallah Abu Rahme).

They say in a democracy a man is innocent till proven guilty.  Well, Makhoul is innocent and wasn’t proven guilty, but he’s still going to prison.  So what does that say about Israel’s form of democracy?  A democracy perhaps for Jews (unless you’re really uppity like Jonathan Pollak or the Shministim), but for Palestinian citizens?  Not so much.

Makhoul is guilty of nothing more than having contacts outside Israel with other Arab peace and environmental activists (NOT Hezbollah agents as claimed).  He was the director of a community NGO doing his job as such people do in every democracy in the world without having their lives stolen from them for it.

In fact, what is so laughable about the charges is that the alleged spying happened in Jordan, a state with which Israel has generally cordial relations.  The notion that Hezbollah would engage in spying on Jordanian soil or that Jordanian intelligence would allow such activity is preposterous.

And just listen to the chief judge reciting the litany of Makhoul’s “crimes” and ask yourself whether a Palestinian either would have acess to any of this information of would care even if he could:

[Hezbollah] requested that he pass on to them intelligence about the residence of the Shabak chief and arrangements of the security detail at his home, along with the travel arrangements of the security details of the prime minister and defense minister.

Let me parse this for you: the Shabak and Mossad have killed Palestinians, Syrians, Lebanese, you name it, in the name of promoting Israeli security.  Hezbollah has vowed revenge for these killings (al-Mabouh, Mugniyeh most notably) and has expressly pointed to Israeli leaders as targets.  Shabak has no evidence that any Israeli Palestinian has become party to such a plot of vengeance.  But it needs to stir the pot of fear and paranoia among Israeli Jews that this COULD happen.  So it picks the most ornery, uppity Palestinian leader it can find and chooses to make an example of him.  With this it kills two birds with one stone.  It justifies its existence to the Israeli Jewish public AND it suppresses the political aspirations of Israeli Palestinians.

Whatever “evidence” was amassed by secret police or offered at trial will never be known.  This is the Israeli police state at its worst.  This is Israeli “justice.”

My readers who support the Israeli government’s draconian treatment of its Palestinian citizens will point to Makhoul’s “admission” of guilt as proof that Shabak proved its case.  Not at all.  As the victim’s attorney noted, he knew of not a single case in which a Palestinian security defendant went to trial and was acquited.  Never.  Not once.  Shabak gets its man, every time.  So Makhoul was faced with a choice of ten years or a possible life sentence if (or I should say “when”) found guilty.  So yes, discretion was the better part of valor.

I want to put those who cheer for this strange justice in Makhoul’s shoes.  If you had two daughters you loved dearly, were innocent, and knew you had virtually no chance of beating a rap, would you risk an almost certain life sentence in a vain attempt to stand up for the principle of your innocence?

Ameer Makhoul walks into an Israeli prison cell an innocent man.  Instead, J’Accuse.  I accuse Shabak of being guilty.  Guilty of destroying Israeli democracy.  Guilty of poisoning relations between Israel Jews and Palestinians.  Guilty, guilty, guilty.  Maybe some day Yuval Diskin will serve time himself for the travesties he and his agents have perpetrated in the name of security for Israel’s Jews and the country’s few “good Arabs.”

All around Israel the flames of fading autocratic regimes are raging.  Regimes whose rule was supported by the type of heavy-handed torture and running rough-shod over individual rights as exemplified by Shabak.  Will it take long before justice comes even to the gates of Jerusalem and Shabak’s prisons?

New Mossad Chief Makes Nice to Brits

Saturday, December 25th, 2010
mossad cloned british passport

Mossad cloned this British passport for use in the Dubai assassination

Israel’s new Mossad chief, Tamir Pardo (who was named here days before his official appointment, breaking an Israeli gag order) has, according to the Telegraph’s Gordon Thomas (known for spinning a few fancy fictions about the Mossad), arranged for a meeting next month with his British counterparts to apologize for the agency’s cloning of the passports of a dozen British citizens in its hit against Hamas senior operative, Mahmoud al-Mabouh, in Dubai.  According to Thomas, he will promise never to abuse British passports again in such an Israeli operation.  Of course, the problem is that in the 1980s Israel did precisely the same thing and promised the Thatcher government it would never abuse British sovereignty again.  Guess what happened?  And can you ever believe these guys?

Britain, in retaliation for the flagrant offense, expelled Mossad’s London station chief and put all intelligence coordination on hold, a major blow not  just to substantive Mossad spy activity, but also to its prestige.

The redeeming circumstance for Israel that Thomas has dug up in this case is that Pardo, then Mossad number 2, allegedly opposed use of foreign passports for the operation and was overruled by the big, bad then-agency chief, Meir Dagan.  So Dagan gets to be the bad guy, with the hope being that the new guy, Pardo, cleans up the mess his former boss made and all is well in this best of all possible spy worlds.

Pardo, according to Thomas, will bring all sorts of peace offerings and other techno-goodies in his sulha with the heads of MI5 and MI6, foreign minister Hague and home secretary May.  He will bring new face recognition software which may (or may not) help identify the killers of MI6 codebreaker, Gareth Williams.   What is of course deliciously ironic about this is that the Dubai police used their own facial recognition software to identify the Israeli agents who murdered al-Mabouh.  Maybe Pardo should be making his next trip to Dubai to check out the competition?

He will also feed his British counterparts more of that good spook stuff that Mossad peddles concerning Iran  (and hope they credit it).  Thomas notes that Mossad is one of the few western intelligence agencies with agents inside Iran.  My hunch is that what he really means is that the Israelis have cooked up a marriage of convenience with the Mujahadeen a-Khalq (MKO) and Jundallah, whereby the latter provide agents to plant bombs to kill Iranian scientists.

Similarly, the Mossad has been known to plant Iranian government forgeries with its MKO friends, who trumpet the fakes to the world as legitimate documents proving Iran is developing a nuclear trigger device, or whatever fraud of the moment Mossad is attempting to pass off as bona fide.  That’s, I think what Thomas really means when he says Mossad has agents in Iran.  It doesn’t really.  It has collaborators in the sense that the U.S. collaborated with the Afghani mujahadeen against the Soviets in the 1970-80s.  And look where that got us.

I find it interesting and suggestive that Thomas has Pardo offering to expand its surveillance of  Russia’s SVR foreign intelligence agency (remember, the Russians assassinated a turncoat agent in London several years ago and relations have never been the same with the Putin government).

A few months ago, a senior Russian spy operative was mysteriously assassinated in Syria.  He was rumored to have been deeply involved in arming Syrian and Hezbollah.  Suspicion fell, as it often does in such circumstances, on the Israelis, though many thought even Israel would not have the b&$$s to take out one of Putin’s top foreign agents.

One wonders whether Israel is trying to subtly pass along a message to the Russians that if they don’t play ball concerning Iran (stopping its involvement with the Bushehr reactor, cancelling anti-aircraft contracts, approving sanctions, etc.) that Israel will do its best to make its life miserable in whatever ways small and large it can.  And of course two can play at this game as well…

My guess is that there are other matters in bilateral British-Israeli relations that be in play as well.  Israel desperately wants its generals and political leaders to be able to spread the Good News about Israel in Britain, but they’ve been prevented from doing so by a series of nasty arrest warrants taken out by human rights activists.  They threaten to dump Israel’s representatives in a British prison in consideration of possible war crimes charges against them (remember Operation Cast Lead?).

I’m guessing that Prime Minister Cameron may be negotiating some sort of package deal of Israeli promises and British counter-promises whereby each side will be able to say it got something worthwhile out of the deal.  My hope of course is that this isn’t the case and that Parliament will not squash the provision allowing for international war crimes arrest warrants in Britain.  But it’s possible the Cameron government will do its best to do away with this excellent measure allowing for accountability for those who may be guilty of war crimes.

The question is whether Thomas’ report has merit and such a meeting will happen; and whether the Brits will be lulled by the fairy dust Pardo will sprinkle on them.

Related articles

Wikileaks: Mossad Sells U.S. on Iran Regime Change Plan

Tuesday, December 21st, 2010

Consider this reverse scenario: four separate planes carrying hundreds of IDF soldiers crash in a single year all due to mysterious circumstances not traceable to mechanical or human failure.  Israeli nuclear scientists die in bombings and under other violent circumstances.  Retired Israeli generals and a deputy defense minister are  kidnapped and spirited to Teheran.  Mysterious explosions at Israeli missile bases leave scores dead.  And a mysterious computer worm leaves the Dimona nuclear reactor virtually incapacitated.  Whenever asked about any of these incidents Iranian politicians and military officers smile knowingly while Iranian media are filled with stories trumpeting the derring-do of its intelligence services.  Finally, various Iranian generals, intelligence directors and political leaders publicly call for regime change in Israel, a full-fledged assault on Israel to force it to renounce its nuclear program, end the Occupation and topple the current government.

Put the shoe on the other foot and think how Israel would react if it came under the type of attack to which Israel is subjecting Iran.  Of course, Israel would react with full scale war.  It would warn Iran that the next such incident would invoke full-fledged hostilities.  And it would be true to its word.  Now compare this with how Iran has reacted to the same types of provocations.  Iran has not declared war on Israel.  It hasn’t demanded a Security Council session to denounce Israeli aggression.  Iran is keeping its cool relatively well considering what it’s facing.  Much better than Israel would under similar circumstances.

newsweek iran cover

Just about everything Mossad 'thinks it knows about Iran is wrong'

On a similar subject, a recently released Wikileaks cable reveals that Mossad chief Meir Dagan met with Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns in August, 2007.  The unbelievably self-serving nonsense that emerged from Israel’s chief intelligence official is astounding.  Among other things, he urged the U.S. to join together with Israel on a plan for regime change:

Turning to Iran, Dagan observed that it is in a transition period. There is debate among the leadership between Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad and their respective supporters. Instability in Iran is driven by inflation and tension among ethnic minorities. This, Dagan said, presents unique opportunities, and Israelis and Americans might see a change in Iran in their lifetimes. As for Iraq, it may end up a weak, federal state…

Dagan said that more should be done to foment regime change in Iran, possibly with the support of student democracy movements, and ethnic groups (e.g., Azeris, Kurds, Baluchs) opposed to the ruling regime…Iran’s minorities are “raising their heads, and are
tempted to resort to violence.”

Dagan urged more attention on regime change, asserting that more could be done to develop the identities of ethnic minorities in Iran. He said he was sure that Israel and the U.S. could “change the ruling regime in Iran, and its attitude towards backing terror regimes.” He added, “We could also get them to delay their nuclear project. Iran could become a normal state.”

By which Dagan clearly means a state that is obedient to Israeli and U.S. interests.

Clearly, there is coöperation and coördination between the U.S. and Israel regarding covert ops/destabilization efforts against Iran as this passage of the cable indicates:

Covert Measures: Dagan and the Under Secretary agreed not to discuss this approach in the larger group setting.

Given all of the information quoted above it seems entirely credible, even certain that the Mossad, with the collaboration of internal dissident forces like Jundallah and Mujuhadeen e-Khalq, have been responsible for the series of bombings, assassinations and attempts against the lives of political leaders and nuclear scientists within Iran.  The grand plan of the Mossad seems to be to combine paralyzing economic sanctions which provoke instability and unrest, with sabotage and political fragmentation to weaken the regime and eventually topple it.

The language of the cable seems to indicate that the U.S. isn’t quite on board with the regime change aspect of Israel’s plan.  But certainly Dagan is quite content that existing policy and a few energetic shoves of the right direction will bring an end to the Ayatollah regime and replace it with one that is “normal” (whatever that means).  One wonders what might have to be done to create an Israel that its neighbors and the rest of the world might view as “normal.”

The unfortunate truth for Dagan is that at least so far, his grand scheme has come up short.  While Iran is under increasing economic distress as evidenced by yesterday’s quadrupling of the price of gasoline and announcement that other critical subsidies for bread and other necessities would be lessened or phased out, Iran remains a coherent, though troubled state.  While the message doesn’t seem to have been heard in Tel Aviv, the ability of the regime to withstand the discontent following the June election fiasco indicated to any reasonable observer that this was not a political system that would go easily or willingly.  It will take a lot more to topple the mullahs than a couple of bombings and a sabotaged nuclear program.

To put it even more directly, Israeli policy regarding Iran is founded on completely unrealistic, even deluded premises.  As I recently heard former CIA officer Ray McGovern say about U.S. views on Iran’s nuclear program, Israel’s approach to Iran is faith-based rather than evidence-based.  And faith-based policy or intelligence is the absolute worst kind.  You can convince yourself of virtually anything if your analysis is not based on rock-solid evidence and reality, as Israel has done.  Faith-based analysis got us into Iraq and to an extent fueled Obama’s foray into Afghanistan.  Faith-based intelligence policy is hunting down Taliban militants in Pakistan with CIA drones.  None of this will bring the types of changes the U.S. would like to see in the region.  Just as none of the principles Dagan enunciates above will bring the type of result he wishes (a new Iranian regime).

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