Tikun Olam-תקון עולם: Make the World a Better Place

Robert Rosenberg’s Ariga.com report today contains this riveting item:

Islamic Jihad, which has been behind all the suicide bombings inside Israel since early 2005 — Hamas signed on to an Abbas-initiated ceasefire in 2004 — announced it was accepting the Prisoners’ Document, effectively beginning a ceasefire…

The document implicitly recognizes Israel and calls for a right of return…[which leaves] open the possibility that [it] would be limited to a Palestinian state that would be established in the 1967 borders. The document calls for armed resistance to the occupation to be limited to the occupied territories — and Islamic Jihad’s announcement apparently means it will cease firing Qassams into Israel: that, in any case, was the army’s interpretation, halting its artillery shelling of Gaza’s ‘Qassam launching zones,’ shelling that has been almost constant since it began months ago in response to the rocket attacks.

Jerusalem Post also runs this story.

If Rosenberg is right, then this is potentially big news. Islamic Jihad has been the most significant militant group maintaining a purely rejectionist stance toward Israel. It has conducted almost all the terror attacks since Hamas began its hudna. It would mean that essentially every Palestinian militant group has now endorsed the Prisoner’s Document (except Hamas and possibly the Popular Resistance Committees). And while Hamas as a group hasn’t endorsed the Document, its most prominent prisoner did collaborate in creating it and signed it. This causes no end of consternation among the Hamas rejectionists in Damascus and Gaza.

If the news is borne out, then it is good on several levels. Most imminently, it is good because both the Qassam attacks and Israel’s murderous counter barrages will end. Second, it is good because this puts the Hamas rejectionists even more on the defensive. Third, it gives Abbas some added support in his battle to get Hamas’ agreement to the plan. Fourth, it gives Ehud Olmert and the Israeli Nyetniks (’nyet’ to Abbas and final status negotiations, ‘nyet’ to Hamas, etc.) one less argument to use against negotiating a peace agreement with Mahmoud Abbas. An Israel not under threat of rocket barrage is an Israel which may take more seriously Abbas’ pleas for Olmert to see him as a legitimate partner for peace. Fifth, IJ’s agreement to the plan forces the international community (including the U.S.) to realize that we are now coming to a decisive moment in the struggle for peace. If Israel’s worst enemy among the Palestinian militants is willing to honor a ceasefire (and let us hope that this is the case), the rest of the world must recognize that the tectonic plates of this conflict are shifting. Will the world take advantage of this to force those plates (i.e. the parties) together or will it stand by and let them continue to drift helplessly?

Robert Rosenberg of Ariga.com raises some interesting prospective issues regarding Mahmoud Abbas’ projected national referendum on the Prisoner’s Document, the peace plan crafted by Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. The plan calls for Palestinian recognition of Israel in return for a pullback to 1967 borders.

Rosenberg starts by comparing the Bush Administration’s new approach to talking with the Iranians to Olmert’s approach to “negotiating” with the Palestinians. In each case, Rosenberg believes there is an element of Kabuki theater; meaning that neither Bush nor Olmert really wish to negotiate seriously with either. But they must appear to be willing to do so. He says the U.S. may “get away” with this posturing:

Israel, however, might not be as ‘lucky’ as the Americans, when it comes to the Palestinians — the Abbas ultimatum to Hamas comes to a head next week, and while Hamas is still not speaking with a uniform voice in favor of the so-called Prisoners’ Document, which implicitly recognizes Israel by calling for a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, the polls show that prisoners’ initiative is supported by 80 percent of the Palestinians in the territories. The Fateh is saying it will hold a referendum on the 18-article document whether Hamas agrees or not. And the Islamic Jihad’s armed men showed up in front of TV cameras without their masks to announce they approved it, as well.

If the Hamas accepts the Prisoners’ Document, it will pave the way for a complete breakdown of the so-far united international front isolating the Hamas government, particularly since the Prisoners’ Document explicitly calls for a national unity government, which would ‘dilute’ the Palestinian government with Fateh ministers. Hamas-Damascus is of course against it, which makes problems for the government of Ismail Haniyeh. Polls show support for Hamas slipping to below 30 percent, with more than 40 percent favoring Fateh right now — and hundreds, if not thousands of PA police loyal to Fateh protested at Gaza’s parliament building — ransacking it in anger — demanding their salaries, then marched in support of Abbas.

If the international front breaks down, pressure will quickly mount on Israel to engage the PA government, and not just Abbas, in real dialogue – and to release the $150 million it presumably has collected in customs and VAT on behalf of the PA since Hamas took office and Israel began its economic siege of the PA.

I, for one, hope that the Bush Administration, the EU and other governments are anticipating the outcome of such a referendum, if it takes place, and what their response to it would be. There are many ifs here but…if Abbas pursues the referendum path; and if the electorate approves it; and if Hamas falls into line with it; then Israel should be made to honor its own rhetoric. It must sit down and negotiate with Abbas AND Hamas for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

The world must end the blockade of Gaza. It must recognize Hamas as Palestine’s legitimate national government. It must treat Hamas and Palestine as a member in good standing of the world community. If it does some or all of those things I believe there will be a rude awakening within the Israel and a sea change comparable to the one Sharon engineered regarding Gaza withdrawal and the demise of the settler movement.

The international community should anticipate that Olmert will come with 1,000 new reasons why he can’t or won’t negotiate with Abbas or Hamas. But his feet must be kept to the fire. And even if Hamas does not fully accept the Prisoner’s Document or the referendum, the fact that the Palestinian people will have democratically endorsed the provisions must compel Israel to at least negotiate in good faith with Abbas. If Olmert continues to argue that he can’t negotiate with Abbas because Hamas still rejects Israel’s existence (a ridiculous contention to begin with), then the world must tell him this argument no longer holds merit. Condi, are you listening??