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Mohammad Said Kalash, "Offering Reconciliation" exhibit (photo: Ilan Amihai)

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Joint Appeal for Peace

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Posts Tagged ‘peace talks’

Middle East Quartet, Toothless Tiger

Friday, September 23rd, 2011
quartet

Mideast Quartet: Tweedle Dum, Tweedle Dumber, Tweedle Dumbest...(AP)

Haaretz reportsthat the Quartet tiger opened its mouth to roar…and a yawn was all that came out.  Obama, Clinton, Blair, and the NY Times trumpeted the expected contribution the four eminences would shortly be making to Middle East by announcing bridging proposals and reopening of negotiations between the parties.  Today, the rubber hit the road and here’s what Haaretz reported:

The “Quartet” of Middle East mediators proposed on Friday that Israel and the Palestinians should meet within one month to agree an agenda for new peace talks with a goal of a deal by the end of 2012.

In a statement, the Quartet — the United Nations, the European Union, the United States and Russia — said it wanted to see comprehensive proposals within three months on territory and security, and substantial progress within six months.

The brief statement represents a much more limited attempt to restart peace talks than Quartet envoys had once envisioned, and made no proposals to bridge core issues dividing the two sides such as borders, the status of Jerusalem, the fate of Palestinian refugees and the future of Jewish settlements.

The EU’s Ashton, speaking to reporters as the statement was issued, said both the Israelis and the Palestinians were aware of “elements” in the new proposal, but indicated it was not certain that they would sign up for new talks.

Tony Blair came forth with this gem:

Quartet representative and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair added that the statement presents a clear set of steps.

A “clear set of steps?”  Signifying what?  What has the Quartet offered the Palestinians to come back to negotiations?  Why should they?  This is worse than useless.  They have no ideas on which the four can agree so they express their solemn wish that Israel and the Palestinians will come together to talk.  That’s nice.  That & a coupla bucks will buy you a latte.  Better to dissolve the group if that’s the best they can do.

What’s Cookin’ With Turkey?

Wednesday, June 22nd, 2011
israel turkey flags

'Secret' Israeli-Turkish talks to normalize relations

What in heaven’s name is going on with Turkey?  A country that, since the ascension of a moderate Islamist party to power, has been a bulwark for a just solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.  Turkey’s IHH humanitarian group sent the Mavi Marmara to Gaza a year ago and lost nine Turkish citizens at the hands of IDF navy commandos.  Prime Minister Erdogan famously tussled with Shimon Peres at Davos just after Operation Cast Lead and gave the octogenarian leader a tongue-lashing.  The Turkish leader has been an international leader on behalf of Palestinian rights.

He’s also led the way regarding negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran, and mediated peace talks between Syria and Israel until Ehud Olmert decided a military adventure in Gaza was more pressing than peace with Syria.

All of a sudden Turkey’s Islamist lion has turned into a lamb.  IHH cancelled its participation in the Gaza flotilla leaving hundreds of thousands of international supporters of this effort high and dry.  Now there are murmurings about a grand bargain involving the Israelis, Turks and U.S. that would resolve outstanding Turkish grievances regarding the Mavi Marmara massacre.  In the past, Avigdor Lieberman has torpedoed an agreement that would’ve required an Israeli apology.  It remains to be seen whether that is in the offing if a deal is sealed.

The U.S. has offered Turkey a major role in future peace negotiations with a conference offered as a prize for its acquiescence.  Haaretz reports “secret” negotiations between Israel and Turkey to iron out these matters.  But note it was Israel that leaked the existence of the talks since it stands to gain more from their success than Turkey.  Apparently as part of this orchestrated “warming,” Bibi has just released a fawning statement calling for Turkey to revert to its historic warm relations with Israel: an era it should be said that involved intensive military collaboration between the IDF and Turkey’s right-wing nationalist military.  Are these the halcyon days to which Erdogan wants to return?  When Israel crossed Turkish airspace to bomb an alleged Syrian nuclear reactor?  When the IDF aided in crushing the Kurdish insurgency?

For the life of me I just don’t see what Turkey gets out of all this.  You’d think that for a such a major shift in policy involving warming relations with an Israeli state increasingly a pariah among nations, that Erdogan would’ve wrested some significant concession from Israel.  Something beyond an apology for last year’s killings and compensation to victims families.

You’d think Erdogan would’ve wrested an Israeli agreement say, to allow a UN vote on Palestinian statehood, or an Israeli agreement to return to 1967 borders.  Or perhaps an Israeli agreement not to attack Iran.  Now, that would be an achievement worth caving on the Gaza flotilla.

As far as I’m concerned, Bibi is pretty much a stubborn fool and Obama a wide-eyed novice when it comes to these issues.  But Erdogan seems about as shrewd as they come.  Not perfect of course, as no leader is.  But he appears someone who has realpolitik in his bones.  This, on the other hand, appears to me to be a sweetheart deal that gives Israel much and Turkey relatively little, considering what the latter is forced to give up.  May I be proven wrong in this.

As an addendum, when the Turkish ruling party won a resounding victory in recent national elections, Bibi praised the nation’s “free and democratic” society.  This should, if the Israeli premier was half-way truthful, rule out any future references to that Israeli trademarked slogan–the “only democracy in the Middle East.”  Fat chance.

Palestinian Entrepreneur Key to Hamas-Fatah Unity Deal, Talks Tough in Maariv Interview

Sunday, June 12th, 2011
munib al masri

Munib al-Masri, Palestinian entrepreneur instrumental in orchestrating Hamas-Fatah reconciliation, stands before his Venetian-style villa on Mt. Gerizim (Reuven Castro)

Robert Fisk has penned a major story about billionaire businessman Munib al-Masri, the wealthiest Palestinian perhaps in the Middle East, who played a key role in bringing together Hamas and Fatah for the unity deal which they signed last month in Egypt.  What’s especially interesting about this is that al-Masri provides his gloss on the meaning of the agreement for Israeli-Palestinian relations, and he reveals just how many separate power centers, nations and political-intelligence operatives were consulted to make the deal happen.

When you finish reading this (most of you anyway) will want to tip your hat to a man who pulled off one of the greatest deals of the past decade, at least, in Palestinian politics.  He did all this from a base he himself created called the Palestine Forum, a group of distinguished Palestinian independents interested in bridging the gaps between the two warring parties.  The Forum worked intensively and diligently for four years to bring this about.  Partially through its own creativity and perseverance, partially through the parties coming to realize that an agreement lay in their own interest, and perhaps most important of all due to the propitious events of the Arab Spring which worked in their favor–they created a Palestinian political miracle.

The following is part of the conversation with Khaled Meshal that preceded the final acceptance of the agreement:

We told him the government has to be of national unity — on the agreement that we would be able to carry out elections and lift the embargo on Gaza and reconstruct Gaza, that we have to abide by international law, by the UN Charter and UN resolutions…He agreed that resistance must only be ‘in the national interest of the country’ – it would have to be ‘aqlaqi’ – ethical. There would be no more rocket attacks on civilians. In other words, no more rocket attacks from Gaza.”…Hamas agreed on the 1967 border, effectively acknowledging Israel’s existence, and to the reference to the ‘resistance.’

Then al-Masri summarizes his own understanding of the agreement, and the reason why it finessed the question of Hamas participation in a government by appointing a transitional one that would not include Fatah or Hamas affiliated members:

If Hamas was in the government, it would have to recognise the State of Israel. But if they were not, they would not recognise anything. “It’s not fair to say ‘Hamas must do the following’, Masri says…”As long as they are not in the Palestinian government, Hamas are just a political party and can say anything they want. So America should be prepared to see Hamas agreeing on the formation of the government. That government will abide by UN resolutions – and international law. It’s got to be mutual. Both sides realised they might miss the boat of the Arab spring. It wasn’t me who did this – it was a compilation of many efforts. If it was not for Egypt and the willingness of the two Palestinian groups, this would not have happened.” In the aftermath of the agreement, Hamas and Abbas’ loyalists agreed to stop arresting members of each side.

1967 borders means that Hamas is accepting Israel and the ‘resistance’ initiative means an end to Gaza rockets on Israel. International law and UN resolutions mean peace can be completed and a Palestinian state brought into being.

Ben Caspit has written his own Hebrew version of this article, which includes a searing interview with the Palestine businessman and supporter of the Palestinian national movement.  I find this  interesting, because Caspit is a generally a supporter of Israel’s far right.  It’s hard for me to understand Caspit’s interest in profiling the Fatah-Hamas unity deal in a positive light given the Israeli government’s absolutely allergic reaction to it.  But hey, perhaps Caspit’s changing his tune politically or his intelligence sources are finding more to like in the deal than we realize.  Whatever the reason, it is a positive development that Caspit is conveying to his readers the thoughts of a major Palestinian figure who explains that Hamas, while not necessarily Israel’s friend, is not the demon it’s made out to be by Bibi & Co.  This is an important message for Israelis to here.

But al-Masri was not kind or diplomatic in his words.  When Caspi asked why Israelis should believe there can be peace with Palestinians when they had just entered into an agreement with a movement sworn to destroy Israel, al-Masri replied:

This is foolishness.  You disappoint me every time anew.  You’re simply unwilling to listen to the other side, only to yourselves.  You go to Washington and persuade members of Congress, make a big show of it, instead of quieting down and listening.  If you really listened to Khaled Meshal’s speech at the reconciliation ceremony in Egypt you would’ve heard three fundamental principles. These are the three principles which we worked on with Hamas and for which we achieved recognition.

Hamas agreed to the 67 lines as a basis for a settlement.  It gave Abu Mazen the credit [if he succeeds] and opportunity to continue the peace process.  And Hamas agreed that resistance could only happen in a national context [as part of a process worked out among the parties].  No longer would every armed group carry out its own military attacks.

These are three enormous achievements.  Similarly, they agreed to stop rocket fire from Gaza.  So tell me, what’s so bad about this for starters?  Why do you have to respond in a panic as you have done?

Hasn’t the time come for you to understand what Palestinians want?  They want something simple.  The 22% of the territory of Palestine about which we’ve agreed to compromise [67 borders].  What was agreed in Oslo.  Our share of Jerusalem [East Jerusalem].  The creation of two states in harmony and friendship.  Palestinians want to end the Occupation.  Believe me that I’m realistic and know what I’m talking about.  This isn’t propaganda.  These are facts.

You talk about peace.  But you don’t really want peace.  Look, almost every one of your senior intelligence officials when the leave their positions all of a sudden become men of peace.  I ask myself: why doesn’t this happen when they’re still serving?  And what happens to them when they come into government [that they oppose peace]?

Caspit continues with a bit of sophistry in questioning al-Masri, claiming that Israelis have learned to believe Arabs when they say the “unpleasant things” they do against Israel,  and that these words are not a basis of negotiation but of continuing war.  To which the Palestinian replies:

Not true.  You see what’s convenient for you to see.  You tell me what’s wrong with the Palestinian people uniting in one leadership?  It’s good for us and good for you and good for the peace process.  How can it be since the split between Hamas and Fatah, that you can claim it’s impossible to negotiate with Palestinians since you don’t know who you should be talking with, and suddenly when we do unite you say [to Fatah]: “It’s either them or us.”

You have a lot of nerve.  We united in order to show that there was a real Palestinian partner, that there is a real chance for peace.  And after we achieve such monumental things, you respond by disseminating such twisted facts.

…You simply cannot create a Palestinian state without such a unity deal.  So we united.  And what do you do?  Shut the door instead of pouncing on the opportunity.

Among the other interesting things revealed in Caspit’s story is that al-Masri’s grandson, who was named after him, was severely wounded by an IDF bullet in the Nakba Day protests along the border with Southern Lebanon.    He dropped everything and flew to Beirut to sit by his bedside.  Though he’d lost many friends to the Intifada and other military operations, the injury to his grandson was especially hard because the latter represented to him the future.  The boy had been 15-20 meters inside Lebanese territory when he took a sniper’s bullet in the back.  He lost a kidney and his spleen, his spinal cord is severed.  He lost a great deal of blood.  He took a dum-dum bullet which caused grave damage.

Caspit is so tone-deaf that he asks al-Masri why a boy who has everything in life including great wealth would take part in an assault on the Israeli fence.  To which the long-time supporter of the Palestinian national resistance replies:

Because he is a member of a generation which does not forget.  Golda and Ben Gurion, your leaders, said that the old would die and the young forget and so the problem of the refugees would be solved.  But the young haven’t forgotten.  He’s already the third generation.  And he still wants to return to his homeland.  He still dreams about it.  You don’t understand this.  You think that if you refuse to acknowledge it, it will go away.  But it won’t.  It’s a problem that must be solved.

Caspit asks, again cluelessly, whether the boy regrets what he did.  To which the grandfather says:

No, he plans to return along with his friends.  They will not give up.

…You cannot force people to give up their aspirations to return to their homes.  It’s a natural wish.  You also cannot dodge the moral and human problem resulting from the creation of the State of Israel and its decision to come [to this region].  The only way to solve this is the sit down and talk.  The 2002 Arab peace initiative is a good basis to start.  But to my sadness, you Israelis are boors.  You don’t want to hear about such things.  You only want to think your distorted thoughts which aren’t based on real recognition of us, but rather on narrow-mindedness, boorishness and prejudice.

What are you afraid of?  The Arab Initiative says the refugee problem has to be resolved in a way that is just and mutually agreed.  That means that you will have to agree to the solution as well [or it won't work].  But Bibi first must recognize that there is a problem.  And he must say to himself: it was caused because of our actions.  And we have a moral and national obligation [to solve it].  First admit that you have a problem, and then we can talk about solving it with the help of all the nations, even the Arab world, all of us together…

I am sure that we can come up with a solution acceptable to the refugess and to you.  But it’s necessary to be creative and flexible.  It is possible.  Why not try?

Caspit, again naïvely, asks why then the Palestinians won’t return to the negotiating table when Bibi has called upon them to do so many times.  Al-Masri responds:

Bibi first tells us “No.” Count the number of rejections in his Washington speech: No to 67 borders, no to Jerusalem, no to refugees.  No, no, no.  You want to talk and in the meantime you continue to build.  Since Rabin’s murder do you know how many houses you built in the Territories and in Jerusalem?  And you want us to sit back and clap our hands?  It’s not fair.  You are pigs.  You want to swallow everything, eat the entire cake, and then you want peace as well.  You have quite a healthy appetite.  You on the one hand want peace and on the other want to continue what you’ve been doing.

…If you don’t stop, you’ll turn into South Africa.  It will go in the direction of a single state.  You’ll regret you didn’t accept Nelson Mandela.  You’ll long for a two state solution.  Why don’t you see this?

When the Maariv reporter asks whether al-Masri doesn’t think Israel has a right to fear the consequences of paying the price for peace given its history, the Palestinian says:

No, you have a Shoah mentality.  Leave the ghetto.  God Almighty, enough already.  You talk about the price of peace?  What about us?  We’ve lost the right to 78% of our lands.  Most of our people live as refugees in other lands.  And you want to talk about the price YOU pay?

The entire interview is worth reading.  I’ve translated most of it, but the man is so smart, so sensible and Caspit is so damn, well you heard the man, boorish.  It’s a perfect exemplar of the mess we face.  But at least you’ll read the ideas of a Palestinian who see clearly and is far-sighted.  Would that there was an Israeli leader who saw as clearly.

Caspit also notes that al-Masri may be a candidate for a major position in the transitional government since he is not affiliated with either side directly and so would be eligible for participation.  At the age of 75, he may be willing to answer the call of his people to broker and ensure the success of this unity deal.

Hamas-Fatah to Form Unity Government, Israel Angered, U.S. Taken by Surprise

Wednesday, April 27th, 2011

Big news today.  Hamas, Fatah and the new Egyptian government have pulled off a masterful coup and negotiated in total secrecy an agreement that would reconcile the two previously warring factions in a unity government.  The plan is startling for a number of reasons.  First, because the Palestinians have been unable to agree on anything for the past five years.  Nor have they ever been able to keep much of a secret over anything that has divided them.  Second, because this new Egyptian government as able to accomplish in a few weeks what the Mubarak regime had failed at for several years.  Third, because the U.S. was caught completely flat-footed having no idea this was coming.  Fourth, because the unity government completely pulls the rug out from under the much ballyhooed Bibi-plan which was to be unfurled before a Joint Session of the U.S. Congress.

Today’s news promises to upend the apple-cart of Middle East consensus in a number of ways.  Until now, Bibi had been shrying that the Arab Revolution portended ruin for Israel in a radical new Middle East.  He forecast a Muslim Brotherhood-led government abrogating the Sinai treaty and generally retreating from peace with Israel.

He’d been sittin’ pretty after besting Pres. Obama over settlements and wangling a coveted invitation from the Republican Speaker of the House to showcase his new “peace plan” before a Joint Session of Congress. Bibi has now been left in the dust to sputter with rage and threaten the end of a peace process which only he and Obama found credible.  And he has only himself to blame.  He’s fulminating saying the PA must decide whether it’s for peace with Israel or peace with Hamas.  I guess it’s chosen, hasn’t it?  Peace with Israel was, thanks to Bibi’s filibustering, a bust.  So what was the PA’s only other choice?  If it wanted to present the world community with a united front come September the PA almost had no other choice but to reunite with Hamas.

Bibi also released this inexplicable statement:

“I think the very idea of the reconciliation…leads one to wonder whether Hamas will take control over Judea and Samaria, as it did over Gaza

Say what?  How will Hamas take over what he calls Judea and Samaria if Israel controls them?  Or is Bibi pretending there was ever a chance that his government would return the West Bank to the Fatah, so that it could then fall to Hamas?  Puh-leeze.  And as for that claim of Hamas taking over the West Bank, this is like the kid who cries wolf.  He does it one too many times and no one believes him when there really is a wolf at the door.  Remember the time he said Iran wanted to destroy not just Israel, but the entire Jewish people?

If Hamas and the PA can succeed in this venture, then they have a much more credible claim for a new state.  It remains to be seen whether two movements which hitherto have had nothing but disdain for each other can carry this through.  If they did it would be a major achievement and signal they are ready to create their new state.  But there definitely needs to be a new leadership especially on the Fatah side.  If Obama has any smarts he will pressure the Israelis hard to release Marwan Barghouti from prison.  He appears to be one of the only Palestinian political figures who could unite both factions.  Israel will naturally not wish to do anything to encourage such success and will resist releasing anyone who can further derail their do-nothing “peace policy.”

The Obama administration risks becoming even more irrelevant than it already is if it doesn’t do a 180° turn and radically rethink its approach to the Palestinians. Cozying up to Bibi as he’s done for the past few months will bring him nothing now.  The president seems to think there is no penalty for U.S. positions which insult the Palestinians.  How else to explain our veto of a Security Council resolution opposing settlements, a position we pretend to support?  Did we think we could get away with this and the Palestinians wouldn’t notice?  Now, it’s Barack’s turn to pay the piper.

Oh, sure we can withhold all that aid we give to Fatah to train their police and security personnel.  That’s what Rep. Gary Ackerman would do.  That will really take us far in our effort to influence the Palestinian side.  It would be like the kid who plays marbles and loses and then take them home in a fit of pique.

Finally, if the Palestinians do pull this off (by no means a given), then Abbas’ plan to raise the flag of a new Palestinian state at this fall’s General Assembly meeting begins to look more and more feasible. A reunited Palestinian cause makes an infinitely more credible argument before the international community.

Egypt too has surprised everyone.  Predictions by the Israelis and their neocon supporters in Washington were that the Brothers were standing by to take over the government along with their army allies.  Now we see the new government in only a few weeks accomplishing a task Mubarak didn’t achieve in years.  It makes you wonder what else democratic Arab governments might be able to accomplish which their autocratic predecessors couldn’t or wouldn’t tackle.  With this single success the new governments that resulted from the Arab Spring have established even more credibility than they already had.  It has given a shot of adrenalin to the movement for Arab freedom.

Much can happen to derail this efforts. I predict the Israelis will do all in their power to provoke mischief including assassinating Hamas leadership if given the opportunity. Plus Palestinians themselves could cause this to implode.

Obama, it seems to me has a fateful decision to make: is he on the train to Palestinian nationhood or is he staying on the road to nowhere with Bibi et al. Is he going to embrace the Arab push for freedom and liberty or is he going to make his bed with the Old Guard Mubaraks, Assads and Bibis. If it were me the decision would be easy. But then again I don’t have the set of conflicting interests he has.

These are fateful days, Mr. President. Which side are you on, tell me which side are you on.

Al Jazeera Blockbuster: PA Gave Away the Store, Israel Still Wasn’t Interested

Sunday, January 23rd, 2011

erekat bigger jerusalem
Al Jazeera and The Guardian are jointly publishing the summary of a treasure trove of documents revealing the extraordinary extent to which the PA was willing to sacrifice a huge chunk of the Palestinian national patrimony and agenda for the sake of peace. While Israel (and to an extent, the Bush administration) essentially said: “That’s nice. But not enough.”

This will literally knock your socks off.  The documents (linked below in discreet articles) reveal:

The scale of confidential concessions offered by Palestinian negotiators, including on the highly sensitive issue of the right of return of Palestinian refugees.

• How Israeli leaders privately asked for some Arab citizens to be transferred to a new Palestinian state.

• The intimate level of covert co-operation between Israeli security forces and the Palestinian Authority.

• The central role of British intelligence in drawing up a secret plan to crush Hamas in the Palestinian territories.

• How Palestinian Authority (PA) leaders were privately tipped off about Israel’s 2008-9 war in Gaza.

As well as the annexation of all East Jerusalem settlements except Har Homathe Palestine papers show PLO leaders privately suggested swapping part of the flashpoint East Jerusalem Arab neighbourhood of Sheikh Jarrah for land elsewhere.

Most controversially, they also proposed a joint committee to take over the Haram al-Sharif/Temple Mount holy sites in Jerusalem’s Old City – the neuralgic issue that helped sink the Camp David talks in 2000 after Yasser Arafat refused to concede sovereignty around the Dome of the Rock and al-Aqsa mosques.

…The concession in May 2008 by Palestinian leaders [would have] allow[ed] Israel to annex the settlements in East Jerusalem – including Gilo…

abbas hamas

You sure don't, baby. But every other Palestinian and the world now will.

Palestinian negotiators practically bragged to the Israelis about how much they were willing to give up for the sake of peace:

…The chief Palestinian negotiator, Saeb Erekat, as giving Israel “the biggest Yerushalayim [the Hebrew name for Jerusalem] in history”

But nothing was enough for Israel.  It apologetically said it appreciated the Palestinian sacrifice but:

…The offer was rejected out of hand by Israel because it did not include a big settlement near the city Ma’ale Adumim as well as Har Homa and several others deeper in the West Bank, including Ariel. “We do not like this suggestion because it does not meet our demands,” Israel’s then foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, told the Palestinians, “and probably it was not easy for you to think about it, but I really appreciate it“.

Oh and you remember all that hope liberal Zionists (and even me I confess) harbored that Tzipi Livni offered a pragmatic alternative to Bibi and that SHE could and would negotiate a settlement if offered power–all smashed to bits by revelations like this.  Tzipi was no better than Olmert nor Bibi.  She just talked nicer and sounded more reasonable.

Here is the overall summary of the tone of the documents by the Guardian reporters:

The overall impression that emerges from the documents, which stretch from 1999 to 2010, is of the weakness and growing desperation of PA leaders as failure to reach agreement or even halt all settlement temporarily undermines their credibility in relation to their Hamas rivals; the papers also reveal the unyielding confidence of Israeli negotiators and the often dismissive attitude of US politicians towards Palestinian representatives.

So let’s try to assess the meaning of this bombshell.  The PA is toast and this former PLO representative says as much in this Guardian column.  Perhaps it will still retain support in the West Bank, which is its base.  But Fatah leaders were willing to give away the store and get virtually nothing in return.  What’s more, even the huge amount it offered wasn’t enough.  Israel wanted it all.

barak pinocchio

Barak as Pinocchio proclaiming "no partner" (Biderman)

Israel had a partner all along.  But it was the Palestinians who had no partner.  Israel’s motto: “Peace on our terms, or no terms.”  Israel acted as if it had won WWII and could dictate terms to the vanquished foe.  Olmert and Israelis may live to regret that they didn’t make peace on these unbelievably generous terms.

In terms of Palestinian leadership, these papers prove the bankruptcy of the notion that an unelected rump Palestinian entity can negotiate a satisfactory deal on behalf of the Palestinian people.  The Bush administration and Israeli policy to torpedo the 2006 elections and stand in the way of Hamas-Fatah reconciliation has been a disaster.  The only way to find an accomodation acceptable to the majority of Palestinians is with a representative elected body that ratifies such negotiation results.

If Abbas and his cronies had any honor they’d resign en masse and leave Israel to resume full Occupation of the West Bank (or barring that negotiate a real resolution with real Palestinian leaders).  But the current PA leaders are as survival oriented as Bibi.  They show no devotion to Palestinian national ideals just as Bibi et al show little commitment to anything resembling values or principles.  They just want to keep their fingers in the pie.  For Palestinians an increasingly small, miserly one.  For Israelis an increasingly larger and tastier one.

And can you believe that Israel had the temerity to ask the PA to accept forced transfer of Israeli Palestinian citizens to the new Palestinian state, Avigdor Lieberman’s population transfer (aka expulsion) agenda?

The documents are a boon for Hamas, which has always prided itself on steadfastness to the Palestinian national agenda.  Hamas will appear the only Palestinian movement which hasn’t compromised with Israel, the only one which wasn’t willing to sell its people out for a mess of porridge.  Even if you hate Hamas, you will have to admit it comes out of this smelling like a rose.  And who do we have to blame for this?  Bush and Olmert, no one else.

Olmert is shown to be a total liar when he trumpeted claims that he made the Palestinians a generous offer of 92% of Palestine, which they refused.  Actually, it was Olmert who couldn’t or wouldn’t deliver.

The new development augurs poorly for any serious peace efforts by the Obama administration.  You now have an even more intransigent Israeli government in power than the one to which all these concessions were offered.  And you have a PA which will be mortified that it was exposed with its pants down.  Peace talks are dead.  Dead as a doornail.  Bibi wins big time.  He can now go about building, occupying, assassinating and engaging in war with virtually any party he wishes as long as he wishes.  He holds the cards.  The PA and Obama got bupkis.  And how will the other Arab governments in the Middle East react to American diplomacy used so haphazardly and to such little effect?

But perhaps, just perhaps not all is lost.  There are initiatives that will be strengthened by this failure.  All the alternative peacemaking efforts such as BDS will look even more attractive than ever since they are not tarnished by politicians’ dithering and compromises.  But even more important, I think the idea of an imposed settlement looks not only feasible, but perhaps the only hope.  I can foresee the Quartet, EU and UN Security Council devising a settlement with the input, but not veto power, of the parties and imposing it on them along with provisions that offer security to both sides.  It’s becoming clearer and clearer that this is not an option, but rather a necessity.  The last hope.

For those who like inside baseball, who spilled the beans?  Who leaked these documents?  My money says it was one of the members of the Palestinian negotiation support unit (NSU), a special British-funded entity that provided research, analysis and strategic background for the Palestinian side in its negotiations with Israel.  The Guardian says that many members of this unit have quit, growing disaffected by the sheer magnitude of what their bosses were willing to concede while getting little or nothing in return.  One of these individuals would have a strong motive to embarrass the PA negotiators.  Also, it appears that the bifurcated nature of the NSU (working for the PA but funded by Britain) allowed for mixed allegiances not necessarily fully committed to the PA interests.

In effect, the Guardian may’ve inadvertently blown the cover of the leaker with this statement:

The bulk of the documents are records, contemporaneous notes and sections of verbatim transcripts of meetings drawn up by officials of the Palestinian negotiation support unit (NSU), which has been the main technical and legal backup for the Palestinian side in the negotiations.

Read all the Guardian’s Palestine Papers and an overview of all Guardian stories written about the Papers.  Al Jazeera provides a different lens on the same documents.

What’s That Giant Sucking Sound? Peace Talks Going Down the Toilet

Tuesday, December 7th, 2010
obama netanyahu

Bibi takes the measure of the man and thinks: "Sucka!"

With a nod to Ross Perot…It’s the sound of the Obama administration pulling the plug on the Israeli settlement freeze extension and peace talks.  Pres. Obama leaves it to a big news day (another failure disguised as a victory) to announce a major foreign policy failure, that he’s given up on his vaunted 90-day settlement freeze extension.  The reasons offered are instructive.  It went down the drain because Bibi couldn’t deliver the votes in his Cabinet to get the extension and because:

…The 90-day negotiating period would not have produced the progress on core issues that the administration originally had hoped for…

If Obama, Mitchell and Clinton had just read my blog before committing to this path they could’ve saved themselves the trouble.  I wrote precisely this when they embarked.  How can you solve in 90 days, issues you haven’t been able to solve in years, if not decades?  90 days would be great if you had two sides ready to go.  But Israel is about as unready to go as any party can be.

This makes the Obama policy toward the Israeli Palestinian conflict a total shambles.  God, what a mess.

This is why there are alternative proposals out there to advance the peace process.  That is why there is BDS.  That is why there is the PA proposal to recognize unilaterally a Palestinian state, as Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay (whose recognition will be formalized sometime in 2011) did yesterday.  I would urge the Arab League to follow suit along with non-aligned nations like Turkey.  When the steamroller gathers enough momentum it will be too late for Israel and the U.S. to do anything to stop it.  All that will be left is for them to recognize a fait accompli (of course it will be more complicated than that, but at least the heavy lifting will already have been done).

If Obama wishes to retrieve his massive failure there is only one way to do so (and I’m afraid he is constitutionally incapable of doing this), and that is to energetically, boldly attack the problem and all the players who stand in his way.  There must be demands made and consequences for rejection of them.  All this can be done in a fair-minded, deliberate way that leaves the world with the clear impression the president is being firm, but fair.

But as a I say it appears that this president doesn’t have the components of the truly great presidents who were willing to, and even relished, looking an opponent in the eye and staring him down when necessary.  Obama doesn’t have the steely resolve that is necessary for greatness as a leader.  Think of Teddy Roosevelt, Lincoln, FDR.  Would they have wilted in the face of Bibi?

Others have said this, but our president would make a great professor.  He can distill the arguments of both sides brilliantly.  But he doesn’t have the moxie to bring the two sides together when butting heads is necessary.  We don’t need a professor to run this country.  We need a leader.  And we don’t have one.  And I fear we will not have one as long as Obama is president.

Now, don’t get me wrong.  I understand that the Republican alternatives are worse.  Far, far worse.  And that’s the tragedy.  We have a nation seeking a leader and instead we get a synthesizer of political ideas.  Good for the classroom, bad for the White House.

So my friends, to take a page from the leader we hoped for but will never get: make the peace you want to see.  It won’t be coming out of Washington, DC.  Again, don’t get me wrong.  I don’t see a full peace taking hold merely from disparate communities setting forth their vision of Middle East peace and taking action based on these convictions.  But at least they can set a tone and lay the groundwork for something more substantial.

This is a big victory for Bibi Netanyahu and the nationalist advocates of the status quo.  Israel feels it can maintain the status quo forever.  And it looks good to them.  They will be energized and emboldened by the Obama retreat.  It’s a very bad day for peace.  In fact, I predict a war within 12 months.  It will either be in Syria, Lebanon or Gaza (with perhaps Iran thrown in for good measure).  Palestinians will become even more radicalized realizing there is less hope than ever to realize their state.  This will mean bloodshed.  And I’ve got to say Obama has only himself to blame.  It needn’t have come to this.  He had two full years to lay out a coherent, energized vision of Middle East peace, pursue it, and realize it.  Instead, he went for bits and pieces like a settlement freeze; and when Bibi balked Barack had no Plan B.

I wonder if this is the end of the line for George Mitchell?  What more can he hope to accomplish?

Obama’s Cluelessness on Israel in Indonesia Speech

Tuesday, November 9th, 2010
obama indonesia speech

Obama speaks at University of Indonesia (Reuters)

I’ve just been reading coverage and an excerpted video of Obama’s Indonesia speech (full text).  I’m reminded of how brilliant he is as a strategist, theorist, and speechmaker (when before have you ever heard a U.S. president with the moxie to end a speech with the words “Asalaam Aleikum?”) and how woeful he is as a tactician.  He knows where we need to go, he has a vision of what the future should look like in the Middle East, but he hasn’t a clue how to get there.  And that will be the death of U.S. policy for the region.

Pres. Obama is actually delivering a speech to Indonesia’s Muslims in which he is attempting to sell them on the fact that he is confident that the U.S. can make headway and bring peace to the region.  This flies in the face of Israel’s announcement that it will build 800 new housing units in East Jerusalem along with 200 more on the West Bank.  Further, Bibi Netanyahu, speaking defiantly at the annual GA conference told off the Administration, saying Israel has never and would never agree to a settlement freeze in Jerusalem.  In other words, he told Obama you can take your pretty words about our building efforts as “not being helpful” and shove it.  That’s really what he said when you come right down to it.

So if you’re Barack Obama, what do you do?  Do you keep making pretty speeches in Muslim capitals or do get down in the trenches and fight for what you believe in.  Here’s what you shouldn’t say because it makes you look feeble:

“This kind of activity [settlement building] is never helpful when it comes to peace negotiations, and I’m concerned that we’re not seeing each side make the extra effort involved to get a breakthrough,” Mr. Obama said during a joint news conference here with the Indonesian president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. He added, “Each of these incremental steps end up breaking trust.”

Nor this:

In the Middle East, we have faced false starts and setbacks, but we have been persistent in our pursuit of peace. Israelis and Palestinians restarted direct talks, but enormous obstacles remain. There should be no illusions that peace and security will come easy. But let there be no doubt: we will spare no effort in working for the outcome that is just, and that is in the interest of all the parties involved: two states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and security.

Note his language: he talks of “setbacks” and “obstacles” and “effort.”  These are the polite words of diplomacy-speak.  Not the hard-headed words of getting things done.  Bibi, in contrast, knows how to fight in the trenches.  Every Israeli prime minister does.  That’s what Israel does best.  It has no overarching vision of how to get from Point A to Point B.  In fact, it doesn’t want to get to Point B.  It wants to stay safe and warm (or so it thinks) at Point A.  It only knows how to fight to maintain the status quo and it does this brilliantly (if that’s the appropriate word).

It will take someone with a lot more moxie than Barack Obama to get a peace agreement out of the Israelis. I recall with something less than fondness the bracing enthusiasm expressed by J Street’s founder, Daniel Levy, when he told a group of us that Obama had a brilliant strategy for getting to Point B using settlements as the lever to open the door.  How naive all that looks now.  Either that, or no one in the Administration listened to Levy.

And if anyone wants to see a further symptom of the cluelessness of the current U.S. policy,  just read Bill Clinton’s time capsule tribute to Yitzhak Rabin in the NY Times.  It’s so 1993.  It reads like a love letter to an old girl friend felled by some terrible disease and you just can’t quite get her out of your mind.  If only she’d lived, you think, imagine how perfect your life would be.  Bill Clinton was, in his day a smart tactician regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict, though not smart enough.  But his day long passed.  And this op-ed reads like a blast from the past.  It’s not that what he says about Rabin is wrong.  On the contrary, he captures the man and his many contradictions quite aptly.  The problem is that the age of Rabin is long gone.  We are in a different age.  An even more deadly one than Rabin lived through.

There are no “hard-headed idealists” (as Clinton calls Rabin), only opportunists of the most shallow kind.  They don’t want peace.  They’re not willing to give up anything for peace.  They couldn’t give a s(^t about any of that.  As far as they’re concerned Obama is a wild-eyed Arab-lover and nuisance.  They waited out and exhausted every previous American president and they figure they can do the same this time as well.

Here is the money quote which makes you realize Clinton is fluttering somewhere over the rainbow in terms of seeing what is really before him:

There is a real chance to finish the work he started. The parties are talking. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has the necessary support from his people to reach an agreement. Many Israelis say they trust him to make a peace that will protect and enhance their security. Because of the terms accepted in late 2000 by Prime Minister Ehud Barak, supported in greater detail by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, and approved by President Mahmoud Abbas and other Palestinians, everyone knows what a final agreement would look like.

Clueless.  Absolutely clueless.  It makes you realize that this is the same playbook Hillary is using.  It didn’t bring a peace deal in 2000 an it won’t bring a peace deal ten years later in 2010.

Memo to Ethan Bronner: Peace Talks are Dead

Friday, October 1st, 2010
israeli settlement

Bibi: 'Eeveryone knows measured and restrained' settlement-building 'will have no influence on the peace map.' C'mon what's a settlement here and a settlement there? Nothing in the overall scheme of things

Ever one to put a high gloss on news unfavorable to Israel, Ethan Bronner’s latest report on the Israel-Palestine peace negotiations avoids the obvious–that they’re dead.

Saeed Barnoura of the International Middle East Media Center wrote after today’s failure of George Mitchell’s latest round of talks:

United States Middle East Peace Envoy, George Mitchell, left the Middle East on Friday without achieving any breakthrough in the troubled direct Palestinian-Israeli peace talks.

Mitchell could not convince Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to extend the freeze on settlement activities in the occupied Palestinian territories.

He said that direct talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority are on hold, but reiterated the commitment of the U.S. Administration to support indirect talks between the two sides.

Contrast that with Bronner happy-talk:

The Obama administration’s Middle East envoy left Jerusalem empty-handed on Friday after intensive efforts to save Palestinian-Israeli peace talks that have run aground on Israel’s decision to allow a freeze on West Bank Jewish settlement construction to expire.

After two meetings each with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority, the envoy, George J. Mitchell, said all sides would keep talking.

If the talks are on hold then the sides aren’t talking.  You can’t have it both ways.  And if you read further in Bronner’s report you see that Mitchell didn’t say quite what Bronner has him say.  He really said:

“Despite that [failure] we will continue with determination.”

That just means that the U.S. isn’t giving up and hopes neither side will give up.  It doesn’t mean they’ll continue talking, at least not at the negotiating table.  Nowhere in Bronner’s article does he use the term “suspended,” “failed” or anything remotely like that to describe the current status.  I thought a good reporter is supposed to tell you the news clearly and succinctly.  I guess for Bronner that doesn’t include news that isn’t so good for Israel.  For such news you can obfuscate and shilly-shally around the obvious.

What he does do is provide Israel’s brief for why settlement-building isn’t such a big deal for the Palestinians to get so hot and bothered about:

The built-up areas make up only 2 percent to 3 percent of the West Bank, and Mr. Netanyahu is arguing that the 2,000 or so housing units that might be built in the coming year while a final agreement was being negotiated would matter little in the end. If the talks stop, the building would be likely to increase.

An earlier NY Times report listed all the goodies which the U.S. was offering Bibi to extend the freeze.  Guns, butter, the list was sickening; just about everything except what Bibi seems to covet above all else: Jonathan Pollard.  I’m astonished that weeks before a crucial U.S. mid-term election Bibi is so politically tone-deaf as to demand freedom for America’s worst post-war spy.  In fact, the very thought of this is an insult not just to Obama, but the American people.  But it would only be an insult to them if Obama actually capitulated and freed Pollard.  There would be howls of protest.  Imagine freeing this man in return for the equivalent of a mess of porridge: a four-week extension of the freeze.  The very thought of it is preposterous.

What I’ve written about this before is: sure, I’d trade Pollard in return for something.  But not a measly four weeks.  I’d trade him for a final peace agreement involving an Israeli return to 1967 borders and sharing Jerusalem as the capital of Palestinian and Jewish states.  I’d give up Pollard in a heartbeat for that.

Pollard for Mossad Chief

I can just see it now: Pollard returns to Israel to a heroes welcome with Bibi and his ex-Mossad handler, Rafi Eitan, meeting him at Ben Gurion.  Afterward, Rafi announces that he’s reviving his failed political party, the Pensioners’ movement so that he and Pollard can run on the same ticket for Knesset.  And then when Israel rallies to their cause, they can join a new government with Pollard serving as the new Mossad chief or Defense Minister.

After all, the current chief, Meir Dagan is being sacked for the Dubai assassination fiasco and Bibi’s looking for a new top spook.  The timing would be perfect and it would seem only fitting to name Pollard to the role since he’s performed such extraordinary service on Mossad’s behalf.  My only regret is that Meyer Lansky’s passed.  If he were still alive he’d make a perfect Justice minister.  And while we’re at it, why not Irving Moskowitz for settlements minister?

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