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Mohammad Said Kalash, "Offering Reconciliation" exhibit (photo: Ilan Amihai)

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Punch and Judy/Pinchas and Jamila

Avi Katz

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David Grossman

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Eldrige Street shul

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Ben Heine

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Hoda Jamal

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Israeli and Palestinian boys

from documentary, Promises

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Maurice Sendak's Brundibar set

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Daniel Barenboim, West-Eastern Divan Orchestra

Palestinian-Israeli musical ensemble (photo: Kerstin Joensson/AP)

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Great Day on Eldrige Street

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Joint Appeal for Peace

(Avi Katz)

Joint Appeal for Peace

Ketubah, Ancona, Italy (1772)

(Jewish Theological Seminary library)

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Posts Tagged ‘palestinian authority’

East Jerusalem Palestinians Must Vote, If Not in PA Elections Then in Israeli Ones

Wednesday, December 7th, 2011

Avi Issacharoff has penned another one of his stenographic reports that could’ve been dictated (and very well might’ve been) by the right wing political or military leadership.  In it, he claims that Hamas and the PA will demand that in the coming Palestinian elections Hamas be allowed to run in East Jerusalem as it did in the last 2006 elections.  They will do so, the reporter claims, in order to embarrass the Israeli government since they “know” the far-right Israeli government is unlikely to permit Hamas to run.  In the eyes of Issacharoff and his sources, it’s the obligation of the Palestinians to accommodate the political interests of Israeli nationalists.  Since East Jerusalem Palestinians live in territory annexed by Israel if the latter allowed Hamas to run for office there it would give the Islamist group a foot in the door to gain legitimacy both among Palestinians and within Israeli-controlled territory.

East Jerusalem Palestinians must be allowed to vote for elected PA representatives.  They must have the same choices other Palestinians in the West Bank or Gaza have.  If they don’t, then they are not fully enfranchised.  If that is so, then Israel must allow them to vote in Israeli elections and preferably make them Israeli citizens.  If neither of these alternatives happen, then Israel is an apartheid racist state which offers Jews a superior level of citizenship, Israeli Palestinians a middling level of citizenship, and East Jerusalemites almost no rights at all.

Israel has to decide which option to follow.  Refusing to allow East Jerusalemites to vote is impermissible and should be sanctioned by international bodies if it happens.

Matt Lee Takes It to State Department’s Nuland Again

Thursday, November 3rd, 2011


The AP’s Matt Lee is going to make himself a mini wonk-celebrity for his habit of making mince-meat of the State Department’s Victoria Nuland during her press briefings.  Yesterday, he took her on over the UNCESCO defunding and Israel’s announcement it would be building 2,000 new settlement housing units and withholding PA tax revenue in punishment for the UN organization’s vote to accept Palestine as a full member.

If you think about what has happened along the lines that Lee does, the UNESCO vote does not really cause any substantive change in Palestinian status in the international arena.  It doesn’t harm Israel in any specific, tangible way.  Yet in response to the vote the U.S. has ended its funding for one of the most important international bodies there is, Israel is withholding potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in Palestinian tax revenues, and Israel will build 2,000 new housing units on illegally held Palestinian territory.

Lee points out that Palestinians are suffering tangible material harm to their interests, while Israel suffers no punishment for its violations of the status quo and stated U.S. policy.  We offer $3 billion per year to Israel and yet we’re not willing to withhold a single penny when Israel contravenes our own policies regarding settlements.  What is the message Israel takes away from this:

…How is it U.S. policy to encourage peace talks if you’re unwilling to do anything against either side when they continue to ignore you and, in fact, not just to ignore you but to make matters worse, is what you said. You’re a parent. You have two spoiled children who are doing things that you don’t like. What do you do to get them to stop that behavior? You don’t do nothing. You punish them. You take some kind of action. You have, or you did have, leverage with the Israelis because you gave them $3 billion a year. You do have, or did have, leverage with the Palestinians because you give them millions of dollars a year. And yet, you’re not going to do anything with that?

…Is the Administration upset or embarrassed at all by the fact that two relatively tiny groups of people are running roughshod over American foreign policy?

…You do believe that your involvement in UN organizations such as UNESCO…that that’s an American national security interest or in an American interest. And you’re prepared to allow these two small groups of people to make you forfeit your national interests in international organizations. That’s what you’re saying to me.

The AP reporter does everyone a tremendous service by calling the Obama administration the emperor with no clothes.  He even uses the term “impotent” at one point.  If I lived in DC I might go there just to watch the fireworks.

I don’t envy Nuland.  She’s not given much to work with.  All she can continually say when pummeled by reporters is the U.S. is committed to the road map and Quartet process, components which are DOA as far as any serious observer of the process can tell.  If the State Department spokesperson wasn’t such a cold fish, you might actually feel a twinge of sympathy for her.

Returning to the press briefing, another reporter gets Nuland to tacitly concede that Hillary Clinton hasn’t had a substantive contact with an Israeli or Palestinian leader in the past six weeks, aptly summarizing the level of commitment of the administration to the issue.  This stasis of course works only to Israel’s advantage because it want to preserve the status quo as long as possible.

The reporters generally note that the U.S. election season is likely to continue to render our efforts pointless because no candidate, including the president would be willing to exercise any robust or muscular intervention in the process.  This means another year of paralysis and ineffectiveness, which is music to Israel’s ears.

U.S. ‘Ideas’ to Resolve Israel-Palestine Negotiation Impasse, Same-Old, Same-Old

Saturday, September 17th, 2011

This week’s Israel-Palestine quiz:

Who was recently referred to as sometimes sounding like “an Israeli diplomat?” a.Dennis Ross b. Barack Obama c. Tony Blair d. Danny Ayalon or e. all of the above?  For the answer, read on…

Today’s NY Times reports a strong statement by Nabil Shaath defending the PA’s decision to take its statehood campaign to the UN Security Council.  But what especially struck me about Shaath’s statement was his stinging dismissal of David Hale and Dennis Ross’ intervention on behalf of the Netanyahu government (yes, you heard me right–read farther below):

Mr. Shaath was blunt in his dismissal of the elements of a statement presented to Mr. Abbas on Thursday by Dennis B. Ross and David M. Hale, two senior American officials. Tony Blair, the former British prime minister and Quartet representative, has been the central player in drafting the statement. Quartet envoys were due to meet in New York on Sunday.

Mr. Shaath said the statement “violated six parameters of the peace process,” including accepting Israeli settlement growth, calling Israel a “Jewish state,” pre-empting discussion of a right of return for Palestinian refugees to Israel, and rejecting efforts to unify rival Palestinian factions: Fatah, which dominates the Palestinian Authority, and Hamas, which rules in Gaza.

In other words, all that the pro-Israel flacks in the Obama administration could come up with was a vague commitment to do something on behalf of Palestinian interests in return for the PA giving up almost all of its key national interests in the negotiations.  It would accept Israel as a Jewish state, renounce the Right of Return, and renounce any effort to reconcile with Hamas.  And this is a serious proposal, how?  What this proposal does is advance Israel’s narrow interests in maintaining the status quo.  It gives Palestine nothing.  That’s why Shaath made this telling comment about Tony Blair, one of Ross’ partners in crime in this little caper:

Mr. Shaath said that when he himself saw the Quartet statement proposal: “I gulped. This was the statement that was supposed to persuade President Abbas not to go? Mr. Blair doesn’t sound like a neutral interlocutor. He sounds like an Israeli diplomat sometimes.”

Why not?  Blair was Bush’s poodle, why not be Bibi’s as well?  More likely though, Blair is doing Obama’s bidding in hopes of some prestigious international post as befits His Eminence.

Henry Siegman adds his voice to the debate with another sharp rebuke of Obama policy:

America has absurd[ly] insisted…most recently [via] President Obama on September 12 — that a Palestinian state can be achieved only as a result of an agreement between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Abbas. Surely President Obama must know that left to their own devices, Netanyahu and Abbas will never reach a two state agreement, and that the only purpose a resumed “peace process” would serve is to continue to provide a cover for further Israeli land grabs in the West Bank.

The U.S. might have persuaded President Abbas to abandon the U.N. initiative in favor of resumed negotiations had it reassured him that if the Netanyahu/Lieberman government does not offer them a peace plan within a reasonable period of time based on the 1967 borders, agreed-upon equal territorial swaps and the sharing of Jerusalem, the U.S. would itself present such a plan to the Security Council.

Unfortunately the U.S. lacked the political courage to do so. Instead of enabling President Abbas to withdraw his U.N. initiative by providing him with a justification for such a move, the U.S. has sought to intimidate Palestinian leadership into changing course by threatening to exercise its veto in the Security Council and ending America’s financial support for the Palestinian Authority. Leaving aside the perverseness of this threatened “punishment” — which will not only end Israeli-Palestinian security collaboration but will increase the likelihood of a third Intifada — when has an American president recently threatened an Israeli government with any kind of punishment for their rejection of U.S. advice, even when Israeli actions have been in clear violation of international law?

If anyone can get access to the original proposal submitted by Hale and Ross to Abbas, I’d love to publicize it here.

On a related note, Haaretz reports that the Israeli government may institute emergency laws which would compromise the rights of detainees in anticipation of supposed riots which Israel anticipates in response to the Palestinian failure in the UN:

According to the plan, the police will be authorized to detain any suspect for up to nine hours instead of three hours, as currently stipulated by the law. This will allow the police sufficient time to investigate the role of the suspect in any disturbance, and is based on the assumption that there will be large numbers of suspects held.

Another assumption is that it will be necessary to create large and isolated holding areas where the police can evaluate whether a person in custody will be arrested or released.

One proposal would allow police to use force against those being detained – and not only against those being arrested, as they are now authorized to do.

While currently the law mandates that a person arrested must be brought before the court in 24 hours from the time of arrest, the proposed regulations would allow the police to extend that to 48 hours.

This would mean that for two full days there would be no judicial supervision of the police actions or decision to arrest.

That change would also harm the right of a person arrested to meet with an attorney without delay. The Supreme Court has recognized this obligation by the investigating authorities, and ruled that it is possible to disqualify admissions by suspects if the prisoner had no access to a lawyer.

Another chapter in the document proposes certain circumstances under which a minor, suspected of having taken part in protests, could be brought before a judge within 48 hours – instead of the current 12-hour limit.

Israeli criticism of the plan doesn’t revolve around violation of rights of Palestinians, but rather the rights of Jewish criminal suspects in unrelated cases which also could be trampled.  Ehud Barak said that the Palestinian UN statehood campaign was a “train wreck.”  Little did he know that it would also be a train wreck for Israeli democracy.

Obama Threatens Aid Cut-Off If PA Goes to UN

Friday, August 26th, 2011

Showing just whose side he’s on, Pres. Obama’s chief diplomatic representative to the PA threatened a full cut-off of U.S. aid unless the Palestinians dropped next month’s bid for statehood in the UN.  The diplomat said:

“If the Palestinian Authority insists on going to the Security Council, the U.S. will use the veto,” he told Erekat during a meeting in the West Bank city of Jericho, according to a statement issued by Erekat’s office.

“And in case the Palestinian Authority seeks to upgrade its position at the UN through the General Assembly, the U.S. Congress will take punitive measures against it, including a cut in U.S. aid,” he said.

Good to know who your friends are and aren’t.  If you’re Bibi Netanyahu, Obama’s your best friend.  If you’re the PA, Obama’s your enemy.  So much for a fair, balanced U.S. policy toward the conflict.

The Obama administration is one of the few I can remember which actually will vote at least twice in the UN against policies it specifically supports.  Earlier, it vetoed a resolution criticizing Israeli settlements, which it opposes.  Next month, it will veto a resolution endorsing Palestinian statehood, which the U.S. supports…supposedly.

It makes you wonder whether the U.S. truly does support Palestinian statehood.  Or whether it supports some vague category of statehood solely on Israel’s terms and solely as defined by Israel’s interests.  There can be little doubt that current U.S. policy is held captive by Likudist pro-Israel forces in this country.  There should be no doubt that U.S. policy is dead as a door nail.

Palestine Papers: PA Collaborated With Israel to Kill Fatah Militants

Tuesday, January 25th, 2011
shaul mofaz

Shaul Mofaz tells PA to assassinate Al Aksa fighter

Now I see why Fatah protesters occupied Al Jazeera’s offices in Ramallah yesterday.  Today’s publication of the Palestine Papers series exposes the PA negotiators with Israel as collaborating in the assassination of their own Fatah-affiliated militants in Gaza.  To be clear, I’m not one who favors armed resistance from either side of this conflict and I have little use for those who take up the gun or missile or Apache helicopter in pursuit of their aims.

But even I think it smells to high heaven that the PA didn’t react with total disgust when Israel’s then defense minister proposed that the PA assassinate an Al Aksa Brigade leader inside Gaza.  When the PA didn’t act promptly enough in doing Israel’s bidding Israel did the job itself with a missile from an Apache which wounded three innocent bystanders and killed the militant.  In the transcript, the PA negotiator actually says to Shaul Mofaz: why should we kill him when you’re not offering us anything?  In other words, he’s bargaining for advantage in the negotiation with the life of one of his own followers.

Later in the Al Jazeera report, it quotes Saeb Erekat, chief negotiator as saying that the PA has already killed Palestinians in order to establish its supremacy.

The Papers also reveal that the PA begged the Israelis to tighten the Gaza siege by occupying the Philadelphi corridor (separating Gaza from Egypt) in order to shut down trafficking between the two entities.  Meaning Fatah actually wished greater harm to their own people that it was already suffering in Gaza.

The Papers and Wikileaks also reveal (and this was already well-known) the close bonds between Mohammed Dahlan, Fatah’s brutal strongman based in Gaza (until he was summarily booted out by Hamas), and the CIA and Israeli Shabak.  Dahlan, widely seen as corrupt, was suspended last year from the Fatah leadership for plotting a coup against Mahmoud Abbas.

Al Jazeera Blockbuster: PA Gave Away the Store, Israel Still Wasn’t Interested

Sunday, January 23rd, 2011

erekat bigger jerusalem
Al Jazeera and The Guardian are jointly publishing the summary of a treasure trove of documents revealing the extraordinary extent to which the PA was willing to sacrifice a huge chunk of the Palestinian national patrimony and agenda for the sake of peace. While Israel (and to an extent, the Bush administration) essentially said: “That’s nice. But not enough.”

This will literally knock your socks off.  The documents (linked below in discreet articles) reveal:

The scale of confidential concessions offered by Palestinian negotiators, including on the highly sensitive issue of the right of return of Palestinian refugees.

• How Israeli leaders privately asked for some Arab citizens to be transferred to a new Palestinian state.

• The intimate level of covert co-operation between Israeli security forces and the Palestinian Authority.

• The central role of British intelligence in drawing up a secret plan to crush Hamas in the Palestinian territories.

• How Palestinian Authority (PA) leaders were privately tipped off about Israel’s 2008-9 war in Gaza.

As well as the annexation of all East Jerusalem settlements except Har Homathe Palestine papers show PLO leaders privately suggested swapping part of the flashpoint East Jerusalem Arab neighbourhood of Sheikh Jarrah for land elsewhere.

Most controversially, they also proposed a joint committee to take over the Haram al-Sharif/Temple Mount holy sites in Jerusalem’s Old City – the neuralgic issue that helped sink the Camp David talks in 2000 after Yasser Arafat refused to concede sovereignty around the Dome of the Rock and al-Aqsa mosques.

…The concession in May 2008 by Palestinian leaders [would have] allow[ed] Israel to annex the settlements in East Jerusalem – including Gilo…

abbas hamas

You sure don't, baby. But every other Palestinian and the world now will.

Palestinian negotiators practically bragged to the Israelis about how much they were willing to give up for the sake of peace:

…The chief Palestinian negotiator, Saeb Erekat, as giving Israel “the biggest Yerushalayim [the Hebrew name for Jerusalem] in history”

But nothing was enough for Israel.  It apologetically said it appreciated the Palestinian sacrifice but:

…The offer was rejected out of hand by Israel because it did not include a big settlement near the city Ma’ale Adumim as well as Har Homa and several others deeper in the West Bank, including Ariel. “We do not like this suggestion because it does not meet our demands,” Israel’s then foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, told the Palestinians, “and probably it was not easy for you to think about it, but I really appreciate it“.

Oh and you remember all that hope liberal Zionists (and even me I confess) harbored that Tzipi Livni offered a pragmatic alternative to Bibi and that SHE could and would negotiate a settlement if offered power–all smashed to bits by revelations like this.  Tzipi was no better than Olmert nor Bibi.  She just talked nicer and sounded more reasonable.

Here is the overall summary of the tone of the documents by the Guardian reporters:

The overall impression that emerges from the documents, which stretch from 1999 to 2010, is of the weakness and growing desperation of PA leaders as failure to reach agreement or even halt all settlement temporarily undermines their credibility in relation to their Hamas rivals; the papers also reveal the unyielding confidence of Israeli negotiators and the often dismissive attitude of US politicians towards Palestinian representatives.

So let’s try to assess the meaning of this bombshell.  The PA is toast and this former PLO representative says as much in this Guardian column.  Perhaps it will still retain support in the West Bank, which is its base.  But Fatah leaders were willing to give away the store and get virtually nothing in return.  What’s more, even the huge amount it offered wasn’t enough.  Israel wanted it all.

barak pinocchio

Barak as Pinocchio proclaiming "no partner" (Biderman)

Israel had a partner all along.  But it was the Palestinians who had no partner.  Israel’s motto: “Peace on our terms, or no terms.”  Israel acted as if it had won WWII and could dictate terms to the vanquished foe.  Olmert and Israelis may live to regret that they didn’t make peace on these unbelievably generous terms.

In terms of Palestinian leadership, these papers prove the bankruptcy of the notion that an unelected rump Palestinian entity can negotiate a satisfactory deal on behalf of the Palestinian people.  The Bush administration and Israeli policy to torpedo the 2006 elections and stand in the way of Hamas-Fatah reconciliation has been a disaster.  The only way to find an accomodation acceptable to the majority of Palestinians is with a representative elected body that ratifies such negotiation results.

If Abbas and his cronies had any honor they’d resign en masse and leave Israel to resume full Occupation of the West Bank (or barring that negotiate a real resolution with real Palestinian leaders).  But the current PA leaders are as survival oriented as Bibi.  They show no devotion to Palestinian national ideals just as Bibi et al show little commitment to anything resembling values or principles.  They just want to keep their fingers in the pie.  For Palestinians an increasingly small, miserly one.  For Israelis an increasingly larger and tastier one.

And can you believe that Israel had the temerity to ask the PA to accept forced transfer of Israeli Palestinian citizens to the new Palestinian state, Avigdor Lieberman’s population transfer (aka expulsion) agenda?

The documents are a boon for Hamas, which has always prided itself on steadfastness to the Palestinian national agenda.  Hamas will appear the only Palestinian movement which hasn’t compromised with Israel, the only one which wasn’t willing to sell its people out for a mess of porridge.  Even if you hate Hamas, you will have to admit it comes out of this smelling like a rose.  And who do we have to blame for this?  Bush and Olmert, no one else.

Olmert is shown to be a total liar when he trumpeted claims that he made the Palestinians a generous offer of 92% of Palestine, which they refused.  Actually, it was Olmert who couldn’t or wouldn’t deliver.

The new development augurs poorly for any serious peace efforts by the Obama administration.  You now have an even more intransigent Israeli government in power than the one to which all these concessions were offered.  And you have a PA which will be mortified that it was exposed with its pants down.  Peace talks are dead.  Dead as a doornail.  Bibi wins big time.  He can now go about building, occupying, assassinating and engaging in war with virtually any party he wishes as long as he wishes.  He holds the cards.  The PA and Obama got bupkis.  And how will the other Arab governments in the Middle East react to American diplomacy used so haphazardly and to such little effect?

But perhaps, just perhaps not all is lost.  There are initiatives that will be strengthened by this failure.  All the alternative peacemaking efforts such as BDS will look even more attractive than ever since they are not tarnished by politicians’ dithering and compromises.  But even more important, I think the idea of an imposed settlement looks not only feasible, but perhaps the only hope.  I can foresee the Quartet, EU and UN Security Council devising a settlement with the input, but not veto power, of the parties and imposing it on them along with provisions that offer security to both sides.  It’s becoming clearer and clearer that this is not an option, but rather a necessity.  The last hope.

For those who like inside baseball, who spilled the beans?  Who leaked these documents?  My money says it was one of the members of the Palestinian negotiation support unit (NSU), a special British-funded entity that provided research, analysis and strategic background for the Palestinian side in its negotiations with Israel.  The Guardian says that many members of this unit have quit, growing disaffected by the sheer magnitude of what their bosses were willing to concede while getting little or nothing in return.  One of these individuals would have a strong motive to embarrass the PA negotiators.  Also, it appears that the bifurcated nature of the NSU (working for the PA but funded by Britain) allowed for mixed allegiances not necessarily fully committed to the PA interests.

In effect, the Guardian may’ve inadvertently blown the cover of the leaker with this statement:

The bulk of the documents are records, contemporaneous notes and sections of verbatim transcripts of meetings drawn up by officials of the Palestinian negotiation support unit (NSU), which has been the main technical and legal backup for the Palestinian side in the negotiations.

Read all the Guardian’s Palestine Papers and an overview of all Guardian stories written about the Papers.  Al Jazeera provides a different lens on the same documents.

U.S. Claims PA to Return to Direct Negotiations, Quartet to Reaffirm 1967 Borders, Israel Oblivious

Sunday, August 15th, 2010

If the Haaretz headline is right (which I by no means concede) and the U.S. claim that the PA is about to return to direct peace negotiations, and that the Quartet will issue a statement saying that 1967 borders are the basis for such a negotiation–are all correct…then how does that square with Israel’s virtual denial of the upcoming Quartet statement:

“Israel is not willing to agree to any preconditions from the back door via a Quartet announcement that will serve as a basis for the negotiations,” a senior official in Jerusalem said.

If you add to this Bibi Netanyahu’s recent explicit denial that 1967 borders are an acceptable precondition for Israel as covered here, how is there any basis to conduct this negotiation?  How can it succeed?  How can it end in anything but failure?  Do Barack Obama and George Mitchell know something we don’t know??

Abbas Refuses to Run

Thursday, November 5th, 2009

Mahmoud Abbas announced today that he would not run for president in upcoming PA elections scheduled for January.  This throws U.S. policy into some disarray as it was predicated on a go-along-to-get-along Palestinian leader like Abbas who would be malleable to U.S. interests.  If there was a clear successor groomed, it might make this announcement less distressing.  But there isn’t.  The only clear names are problematic for different reasons.

The most obvious is Marwan Barghouti, the most universally acclaimed Fatah leader not only in the West Bank, but in Gaza as well.  The only problem is that he sits in an Israeli prison.  There has been some talk that a negotiated deal to release Gilad Shalit might include Barghouti.  But unless he is released, running for office would mean Palestinians would be electing someone who couldn’t serve.  This too would embarrass Israel, which might be reason enough for the Palestinians to do precisely that.

The other option is a member of the Fatah’s powerful, but discredited Old Guard like Mohammed Dahlan.  This choice would be universally condemned everywhere but in Fatah circles.  Dahlan is widely hated by Hamas for engaging in torture, corruption and other serious abuses.

There is always the possibility that Abbas is posturing or maneuvering for a more favorable stance on the part of the Obama administration regarding the settlement freeze and final status talks.  Abbas resigned when he was prime minister under Arafat (and then returned after Arafat’s death).  I don’t know which way this one’s going to go.  But it seems to me that the drubbing the U.S. indirectly engineered for him when it persuaded him to scuttle the Goldstone Report, plus the intransigence of the Netanyahu government would be more than sufficient to persuade any politician that he’d gone about as far as he could given the circumstances.

The Times article outlines the sense of despondency among Fatah leadership and their sense of betrayal by the U.S.:

It was…clear that Israeli-Palestinian talks would not resume any time soon despite intensive American diplomacy. A top aide to Mr. Abbas said a large part of the “despondency and frustration” felt by Mr. Abbas and the entire Palestinian leadership was due to President Obama’s unrealized promises to the region. He said he feared that without a stop to settlements, Islamist rivals in Hamas could triumph and violence could break out.

“There was high expectation when he arrived on the scene,” the aide, Nabil Shaath, who heads the Fatah party’s foreign affairs department, said of Mr. Obama at a briefing. “He said he would work to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, that it would play a major role in improving the American and Western relationship with the Muslim world. Now there is a total retreat, which has destroyed trust instead of building trust.”

…“I think he’s reached the conclusion that he’s reached a dead-end,” said Qaddoura Fares, another Fatah leader, on Israel Radio, speaking of Mr. Abbas.

There is also the added factor of Hamas.  Fatah has failed to negotiate a reconciliation with the Islamic movement, and without this there can be no elections in Gaza.  PA voting in the West Bank alone would be quite embarrassing to Fatah I would think, and would cause them to delay the elections.

I worry that Abbas’ resignation and the flux of Palestinian leadership that results will provide a major setback for the Obama administration.  I can see no way it can seriously attempt to advance the peace process given how little Israel is giving him to work with.

Let’s be clear about where fault lies should these things come to pass.  Look no farther than the prime minister’s office in Jerusalem.  And this impasse suits Israel just fine.  Stasis and stalemate are Israel’s preferred modes when it comes to the conflict.  The only thing that seems to move Israel off the dime is a massive terror attack.  It’s hard to tell which of Israel’s will oblige this scenario: Hezbollah or Hamas, who knows?  And if Israel truly wants to divert the world’s attention from its obstinacy there’s always a new military adventure in Iran that is possible.  That nation is the smoke that conceals Israel’s real interest, which is continuing the Occupation and stiffing the Palestinians.

Israel and its supporters seem to believe they can maintain the status quo ad infinitum.  But things change.  Instead of the consensus being a two state solution, that could change.  People who previously never spoke favorably of a one-state solution are despairingly turning to it:

Saeb Erekat, chief Palestinian negotiator, said Wednesday at a news conference that perhaps Palestinians should abandon the two-state approach and work toward one shared state with the Jews, something a vast majority of Israelis oppose.

He said Mr. Abbas should maybe “tell his people the truth, that with the continuation of settlement activities the two-state solution is no longer an option.”

Israel should understand that this is not a trick, not a maneuver.  Most of all, at some point in the future there will be no return to the two state solution.  The international consensus will move from two to one-state.  At that time, telling the world you’ve had a change of heart and a two state solution would be just fine thank you–that’s not going to work.

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