Clinton Wins Squeaker in Indiana, It’s All Over But the Crying

As I write this at 12:50AM east coast time, 95% of Indiana is in and Obama is losing by around 16,000 votes (just over 1% margin). The remaining votes are coming from the region around Gary, IN. which heavily favors Obama. So it’s likely the final margin of victory will be even closer–perhaps as low as 5,000 votes.

By my calculations the primary campaign is over. Hillary has cancelled media appearances tomorrow and will be consulting with her staff, supporters and superdelegates, who I’m guessing will be giving her the bad news. She may fight on. But she’s essentially broke and will have to go even deeper into hock to continue.

No, I’m not gloating and not singing any songs about wicked witches as I’ve read at other websites. We need Hillary’s supporters to win this thing. Obama struck just the right note of conciliation in his North Carolina speech. I hope that despite her disappointment with tonight’s results, Hillary will be able to read the tea leaves and decide that when she gets out she does so with style and magnanimity. It’s hard to know with her. She fights so hard and probably takes losing badly. But for the sake of the Party and defeating McCain, I hope she can find it in her heart to move on and give her all in supporting Obama’s likely candidacy.

If she is surly and unforgiving and provides tepid support it just may be too hard to win in November. It’s going to be a tough, close race no matter what happens. Despite the fact that the Republicans have almost nothing going for them this election cycle, McCain is going to be a formidable candidate. He has some virtues Obama doesn’t and he’ll play them to the hilt.

UPDATE: 99% of the vote is counted and Hillary wins by approximately 22,000 votes and a margin of less than 2%.

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Zbigniew Brzezinski on Obama

I’m jealous of Phil Weiss. He gets to interview Zbigniew Brzezinski and gets paid to write about it! In his latest blog post, Phil informs us that while Barack Obama may not be for Zbigniew Brzezinski, Brzezinski sure likes Obama. I agree with Phil that Brzezinski presents an utterly compelling case for why Obama would make a much better president than either Clinton or McCain. This is what the former national security advisor had to say on the race:

“In my judgment the United States confronts, and the world, a fundamental historical discontinuity. The world of the cold war or earlier, the world of the struggle against the totalitarianism of the Nazi/Stalinist variety, is finished. We live in a complicated, much more dynamic, much more politically awakened world, in which the population of the world for the first time is politically active, stirring, restless, increasingly anti-western, increasingly anti-American. And to manage that world well one has to understand how history has changed, how the global context has changed. Hillary Clinton would be a perfectly competent president, but her view of the world in my judgment is quite conventional and traditional. That criticism is even more applicable to John McCain, who is in my view is a great patriot and a great hero but represents essentially the past. I have been impressed talking with Barack Obama and also from reading what he has been saying by the fact that he understands that this great historical discontinuity has taken place and that America has to redefine its place in the world. In fact, that America has to redefine itself. And I think that he symbolizes that needed change, and if he becomes president he can help America effectively make that change.”

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Will Wright be Obama’s Undoing…and Clinton’s?

In the Barack Obama-Jeremiah Wright affair, a tragedy of sorts is playing itself out before our eyes. We have the first African-American presidential candidate in American history who has a serious chance of capturing the nomination of his party and the presidency itself.

Because of this, there is an underlying nervousness among Americans about what it might mean. This nervousness may be in the process of turning into a backlash much like the one that confronted Martin Luther King is his civil rights struggle in the 1960s and ended with his assassination. There are white people who don’t want a Black man to lead them. They won’t say that, of course. To admit this would generate accusations of racism. And perhaps some of those who have been smearing Obama genuinely see themselves as performing a service to the country by pointing out the candidate’s alleged weaknesses.

There is no doubt that Hillary Clinton is a formidable candidate who brings much to the table and might make a credible president. But there is also no doubt that she and her supporters have helped turn the campaign into Sherman’s March to the Sea, a scorched earth, take-no-prisoner battle to the death. Is Hillary responsible for the unseemly media spectacle that has played itself out over the past four days in which Jeremiah Wright has unburdened himself of so many astonishing (at least to whites) prejudicial notions? Is she responsible for Obama’s chastened speech today in which he renounced his former minister? No, she and her surrogates are not responsible for this proximate event. But they are responsible for much that led up to it. For there would be no controversy–or at least it would be a different level of intensity–if she hadn’t tried to turn it into Obama’s defining “character moment.”

In the Jewish community, the mud has been slung fast and furiously for months now. The latest comes from a major leader in the Los Angeles Jewish community who is a Clinton “bundler” (in the words of Variety’s political blog), Daphna Ziman. She attended a fundraising event addressed by the local director of the Southern Christian Leadership Conference (and also a black minister). Ziman accused the minister of blaming Jews for the negative portrayal of blacks in Hollywood films. In a subsequent e mail sent to 50,000 of her “closest” Jewish confidants by way of the mailing list of the pro-Israel group, Stand With Us, Ziman called him an anti-Semite and linked him to Rev. Wright. In a separate e-mail, she claimed that Obama’s “movement is out to destroy us [Jews].” This incident was further amplified by the right-wing online news outlet, Pajamas Media and the Republican Jewish Coalition.

Clinton’s campaign hasn’t said a word about Ziman’s outburst (which wasn’t the first time she expressed what I call Jewish Obamaphobia). When the Clinton campaign winks at such hysteria, aided and abetted by Republican groups and conservative media outlets, it makes you wonder just whose side is she on (and just who is on her side)?

I’m astonished that hardly anyone in the U.S. media is asking the question: why is Barack Obama responsible for his minister’s statements or views? Why is Obama a lesser human being or candidate because the leader of the church he belonged to says things others find objectionable? Obama opponents respond by claiming that Obama has identified so closely with Wright that it is legitimate to question whether the former holds the same views as the latter. As Obama correctly noted, Wright is (or now “was”) his minster, not his political advisor. Does anyone seriously believe that Obama will pursue an AIDS policy based on Wright’s views that the U.S. government had the capacity to spread the scourge in the black community? Or that Obama’s policies toward terrorism will be guided by Wright’s views that U.S. terrorism justifies Al Qaeda terrorism against U.S. targets?

You’d have to be a certified paranoiac to believe such things. And it’s the tragedy of this electoral season that many Americans appear to do so.

Since we’re examining the views of Obama’s minister, why doesn’t anyone vet the statements of Hillary Clinton’s or John McCain’s ministers? More importantly, why doesn’t John McCain have to explain the support provided to him by evangelical super-Israel-patriot, John Hagee, who believes Israel and the U.S. should attack Iran; not to mention he hates the Catholic Church (the “Great Whore”) and predicts two-thirds of Jews will be killed in the End Times. I have read many of Hagee’s more outrageous ideas and he’s at least as nutty as Wright, if not more so. Yet McCain hasn’t paid any price.

There is yet another dimension to this tragedy. Barack Obama is an African-American candidate at the heart of whose appeal lies an ability to crossover and engage white, and all voters. His rhetoric is inclusive in a way that no previous African-American candidate’s has been. He doesn’t speak to separate Democratic constituencies or ethnic groups. He almost transcends them. At least, he did until this mess happened.

What Obama’s opponents have done is drag him down into the mud with them. They’ve said: “Not so fast buddy. You think you’re so high and mighty. You think you’re better than us. Well, we’ll teach you a thing or two about American politics. We’ll make you as small as all the rest of us.”

An American presidential candidate usually starts a career by appealing to a particular constituency. In Obama’s case it was the multiracial Chicago community which he represented in the state senate. He has tried to stay true to his African-American roots and constituents during this campaign because otherwise he would lose an important measure of authenticity.

What the Wright debacle has done though, is to threaten to unmoor Obama from his natural constituency. The candidate faces the prospect of not only alienating white voters for allegedly consorting with Wright; he may lose black support by abandoning Wright. You’re damned if you and damned if you don’t.

This is the lonely night of the soul that every presidential candidate faces and dreads. The moment when the fates seem to have turned their backs; when everything you thought was true and right and that motivated you to run is in doubt. I don’t know what the outcome will be. But Obama’s campaign is at a critical juncture. He could still win the nomination or it could just slip away from him. And even if he wins the nomination, these orchestrated attacks may conceivably have irreparably wounded him as a viable candidate in the general election.

If Hillary Clinton thinks she’s going to reap any benefit from all this she may be in for a rude shock. If Obama melts down as a candidate and she wins the nomination, she too will be wounded; perhaps even fatally so. She will certainly have lost the support of much of the black wing of the Party as well as the liberal wing. She will have to go into the general election hoping she can carry moderate-conservative Democratic voters and persuade independents and moderate Republicans to join her. In effect, she would become a version of Joe Lieberman (not exactly a beloved politician these days). In short, I think she would be an unpersuasive and inauthentic candidate. And in her victory, she will have destroyed the candidacy of one of the most promising American politicians to come along in a generation. Not an auspicious way for her to enter a general election campaign.

A slightly different form of this post was published at Comment is Free.

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Bush: Do Your Job, Bring Israel and Syria Together for Peace

My new Comment is Free post, Giving Up the Golan, was published today. It calls on President Bush to engage with Syria and Israel to jump start a negotiating process that would lead to peace. And if Bush fails to lead, it calls for the presidential candidates to call Bush to task for his failure. I’m hoping that American Jews will tell their respective candidates AND their president to show leadership in bringing the parties together. Israel and Syria have gotten this far. It would be a tragedy if we didn’t do what we can and should to help them go the rest of the distance toward peace.

I’ve written to Eric Lynn, one of Obama’s Jewish liaison staff with my suggestion. He hasn’t replied. Presidential campaigns don’t seem to reply to bloggers, or at least to this blogger. I’m not naive enough to think that Obama is eager to jump into this issue. He probably thinks he has enough fires to put out without adding this one.

But I think telling George Bush that the U.S. could set an example in expediting an Israeli-Syrian peace process is the right thing to do. I don’t see how it could be very controversial among most Americans. Plus it would make Obama look presidential since he’d be taking a leadership role in staking out a principled position on a major foreign policy issue. But of course the Israel lobby has no interest in Israel making peace with Syria despite the fact that Ehud Olmert has just said Israel is prepared to return the Golan. This is a perfect example of a serious divergence between the Israel lobby and the Israeli government–which never happens if you read what some AIPAC apologists write.

For the Israel lobby, Syria is anathema; the idea of returning any territory to an Arab state is anathema; the prospect of an Israeli PM saying he’s prepared to do so has got to give them the willies. I’m just waiting for the other shoe to drop.

But does that mean that Barack Obama can’t stake out ground on this issue? No. He did precisely that in Cleveland when he told Jewish leaders that being pro-Israel does not mean being pro-Likud. He should expand on that and say that being pro-Israel means being pro-peace; and returning the Golan will hasten peace.  If Olmert can say it, why can’t Obama?

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Jewish Obamaphobia II

Obama cartoonObama Menace Dress-Up Doll (EVComics)

I’ve missed all the smears emanating from the Jewish right about Obama and his alleged “softness” toward Israel. Nothing’s come out along those lines in, oh say–at least the last two weeks. I wonder what’s keeping all those neocon Jewish elves slaving away in the devil’s workshop? Undoubtedly, there’s more in store, especially if it starts looking like Obama will win the nomination.

Hat tip to Dan Sieradski for turning me on to this website.

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Clinton at Debate: Iranian Attack on Israel is Attack on U.S.

I was just reading the NY Times account of the Philadelphia debate and I read something that piqued my interest regarding Clinton's response to a question about an Iranian attack on Israel. Then when I read the transcript it blew my mind: MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Senator Clinton, would you [extend our deterrent to Israel]? SENATOR CLINTON: Well, in fact, George, I think that we should be looking to create an umbrella of deterrence that goes much further than just Israel. Of course I would make it clear to the Iranians that an attack ...

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Giuliani’s Daughter Supports Obama

DELICIOUS! Hey, I think by broadcasting her presidential preferences in one of the world's most popular social networking sites that she's deliberately eschewed her privacy regarding this matter. In fact, I think she's just said: "F--- you, daddy." This should really go over well in the Republican heartland. Rudy's daughter supports a LIBERAL Democrat for president! And hey, how's this for spin: A spokeswoman for Ms. Giuliani, Joannie Danielides, said: “Before the presidential campaign got under way, Caroline added herself to a list on Facebook as an expression of interest in certain principles. It was not intended as an indication of support in a presidential campaign, and she has removed it.” She joined ...

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