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Posts Tagged ‘marwan-barghouti’

Shalit-Barghouti Deal Imminent?

Monday, November 23rd, 2009

One never knows what to say about the on again, off again negotiations to free Gilad Shalit and the seemingly unending media stories announcing an imminent deal.  So one approaches this subject with some trepidation.  But there are enough serious signals that haven’t been seen before that a deal is close, that it’s worthwhile considering what could happen and its possible impact on Israeli-Palestinian relations.  The outline of the proposal is that in return for releasing kidnapped IDF soldier, Gilad Shalit, Israel will release 450 Palestinian prisoners including the most prominent, Marwan Barghouti.

Marwan Barghoutis wife sits under his image (James Hill/NY Times)

Marwan Barghouti's wife sits under his image (James Hill/NY Times)

What is different now from previous rumors of a deal?  First of all (and you won’t see this mentioned in Ethan Bronner’s NY Times report because he never acknowledges such issues), the Israeli military censor has thrown up complete embargo over coverage of this issue.  The only thing Israeli media can do is speculate about the matter.  They can’t report on what any minister or intelligence officer or IDF commander might have to say.  This is unprecedented in Israeli history as Haaretz notes.  It can only mean that Israel realizes that any false note introduced into the mix could doom the negotiations.  Even more importantly, this right-wing government is extremely sensitive to criticism from its farther right flank of the idea of freeing Palestinian terrorists.   Blanket censorship is one way to dampen such criticism.  Bronner doesn’t want to deal with the implication of the Only Democracy in the Middle East™ using censorship in order to manipulate political debate as this would not reflect well on Israel’s “democracy.”

Ever since Shalit’s kidnapping speculation has been rampant that Marwan Barghouti would be included in the exchange.  He is the most respected Palestinian political leader (including Abbas and even Haniyeh) and a potential future leader of the PA.  In fact, this Haaretz article speculates that the Palestinian prisoner’s freedom might expedite the resignation of Mahmoud Abbas and his replacement by Barghouti.  In today’s Palestine, his role and stature is roughly akin to that of Nelson Mandela in apartheid era South Africa.

Now, apparently both sides are indicating this VIP (very important prisoner) is slated to be freed as well.  So it becomes important to speculate how this might change the Palestinian political landscape.  Given how depressing (for anyone seeking peace, which excludes the Netanyahu government) the current situation is, it’s important to note that even if Barghouti is released it doesn’t mean that this will single-handedly transform the situation for the better.

I’m afraid that the current Israeli government has proven itself adept at outwaiting and outsmarting a U.S. president and the PA.  So it’s doubtful that a PA headed by Barghouti (were this to happen) could work any immediate miracles.  But it is worthwhile speculating what might happen in the longer term.  The Netanyahu government, secure and stable as it now seems, won’t be so forever.  Indeed, if a strong PA leader comes on the scene, one that Israelis feel could be trusted to deliver on his promises and who could carry Hamas with him, then the electorate might feel more secure in electing a more forthcoming government.  It’s not outside the realm of possibility that a more pragmatic leader like Tzipi Livni could be elected within a year or so who might actually proceed to final status talks and negotiate a deal with the Palestinians.

Of course, there are many rivers to cross before we get to that point.  But I think in the long-term this release could produce positive results for peace.

One aspect of Bronner’s reporting also calls out for critique:

Many governments, including that of the United States, want to end the embargo to relieve the suffering of the 1.5 million people in Gaza, especially after Israel’s military invasion 11 months ago, which destroyed thousands of homes and factories. But Israel has said it will not end until Mr. Shalit’s release.

Therefore, if a deal is really imminent, it may also signal the possibility of some opening of the commercial crossings.

First, no government has been willing to engage in any serious effort to oppose the Gaze siege despite the fact that is a clear breach of international law.  So giving credit to nations for wanting the siege to end is an empty gift to them since they’re not willing to go to the mat to make it happen.  Second, the idea that Israel will feel empowered to diminish Gaza’s suffering because Hamas has freed Gilad Shalit is laughable.  Israel has SAID that it would do so and that the Shalit kidnapping is one of the developments that justifies continuing the siege.  But given Israel’s hatred of Hamas and its imperviousness to the notion of honoring verbal commitments, the likelihood of ending the siege or even lessening it is practically nil.

And to use one of Walter Mondale’s best campaign lines: Ethan Bronner won’t say that.  I just did.

Gorenberg’s Fantasy of Palestinian Non-Violence

Monday, March 30th, 2009

Gershom Gorenberg has done a Tom Friedman on us.  This immensely intelligent and incisive commentator on the Israeli-Arab conflict has written a fantasy which imagines a Ghandiesque Palestinian non-violent campaign of resistance to the Occupation which succeeds in bringing down the hated Israeli system and replacing it with peace.  It’s really worthy of late-career Friedman, an example of someone who encourages their imagination to reel off scenarios which it would like to be true, but which haven’t half a chance in Hell of coming anywhere close to being so.

It’s no accident that this was published in a publication founded by Bill Kristol, one of the bell-weathers of the neocon movement.  Who else would be as interested in the trite question on the lips of liberal and rightist supporters of Israel everywhere: Why is there no Palestinian Gandhi?

After spinning such a wild scenario leading to an Israeli prime minister agreeing to negotiate for peace with a Palestinian Gandhi as a result of a single non-violent march from Ramallah to the Al Aqsa mosque, Gorenberg writes a telling statement:

To sit in my study in Jerusalem and to imagine recording this chronology as a historian is to be filled with the wild hope that fantasy can bring and with the pain of knowing it is fantasy.

There is nothing wrong with HAVING such a fantasy.  But there is something wrong with believing that such fantasies are tough enough or real enough to deserve to see the light of day.

Here is the basic presentation of his thesis, which includes within it the reason why it is a fatally flawed premise (at least Gorenberg has the honesty to include this):

So why not adopt the strategy of nonviolent civil disobedience, the methods of Gandhi? That question has been asked for years, by moderate Israelis and by Westerners with sympathy for both sides. It comes packed with assumptions. It implies that Israelis accept a civilian death toll like that in Gaza only when they believe it is the unavoidable price of self-defense. It presumes that Israel remains a society whose citizens would not long allow their government to use deadly force against masses of nonviolent demonstrators. And it suggests that if Palestinians succeeded in shedding the image of terrorists and appeared internationally as saints, they would succeed in bringing unbearable Western pressure against Israel.

But even if patronizing, the question remains valid: Sainthood can work.  Britain abandoned India; Montgomery’s buses were desegregated.

Yes, indeed. The notion is patronizing.  Why would anyone in their right mind presume that Israel would NOT use deadly and massive force against masses of nonviolent Palestinian demonstrators?  Of course it would and it has.  The truth of the matter is that Israel is not colonial Britain.  1948 is light years removed from 2009.  The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has coarsened both sides to the point that an Israeli would just as soon kill a Palestinian as look at him (and vice versa).

The analogy to Martin Luther King’s non-violent campaign for civil rights is also flawed as I’ve written here before.  In that situation, the American South was not a discrete country and so could not go its own way.  It was part of a nation that ultimately became horrified by the evil acts of segregationist thugs.  The conscience of Americans outside the South eventually impelled national political leaders to act.  And the jig was up.

There is unfortunately no longer (if there ever was) an Israeli conscience regarding Palestinian rights or ending the Occupation.  The Israeli left is either dead or in suspended animation.  The values it used to represent are no longer ones embraced (at least consciously) by most Israelis.  In short, it is simply impossible to rouse Israel’s conscience to the justice of the Palestinian struggle.  As hard as it is for me as a progressive Zionist to write this, such a non-violent march as the one described by Gorenberg would be met with massive and lethal force.  Scores, if not hundreds would die.  Demonstrators would be scattered to the winds.  The Israeli government would call them rabble-rousing Arab scum who entered a closed military zone in order to deliberately provoke the IDF to act.  They’ll say they got what they deserved.  And hardly anyone but the usual suspects within Israel will raise a peep in dissent.

The truth of the matter is that there ARE Palestinian Gandhis, peace activists who adopt a non-violent approach to confronting the Occupation.  Among the most prominent are Mustafa Barghouti, Sari Nusseibeh, Mubarak Awad (who he mentions), Sam Bahour and many others.  But there is no figure comparable in stature or influence to Mahatma Gandhi.  And that is hardly the fault of the Palestinians.  For the plain fact of the matter is that Israel is no Imperial Britain as Paul Woodward makes clear in his sharp critique:

…The parallels between British India and Israel are beyond tenuous.

Gandhi’s resistance to British rule galvanized the support of a massive population governed by a tiny colonial elite who never had the pretense that Britain was reclaiming a long-lost homeland. To the British, India was a land brimming with resources that could be shipped back to the actual homeland and traded for handsome profits. By the end of World War Two, Britain was bankrupt and in a rush to free itself of what had become its colonial burdens. With or without a gentle shove from the Mahatma, the sun had already set on the British Empire.

As for Gandhi’s nominal success in non-violently waving goodbye to colonial rule, we should not forget that it was accompanied by the horrific failure of partition and a bloodbath in which as many as a million people died.

Returning to the idea that Gorenberg’s notion is “patronizing,” I find it astonishing that I only hear this question raised by liberal or rightist Israel supporters.  The assumptions behind it are illuminating.  The notion that if only there were a Palestinian Gandhi presumes that Palestinians are a people which has made a conscious, deliberate and intentional choice to embrace violence.  It accompanies a whose series of prejudicial notions that Arabs are angry, violent and treacherous.  And if only they embraced non-violence, that this would resonate so with the good-will of the Israeli public that the walls of hatred would topple and everything would be for the best in this best of all possible worlds.

Further, let’s turn this notion on its head (some of my thinking on this was inspired by Svend White’s post): where is the Israeli Gandhi?  What major Israeli figure has embraced non-violence and come anywhere near creating a viable political movement?  Sure, there have been the Abie Nathans and Menachem Fromans and we salute them for their enormous courage.  But Israelis view them as Don Quixotes,  good-hearted visionaries perhaps a bit soft in the head, rather than as hard-headed, practical leaders able to forge a mass movement like Gandhi or King.

Gorenberg himself seems to recognize the limitations of his enterprise here:

…To imagine Nasser a-Din al-Masri [the Palestinian Gandhi] is disturbing for another reason: This is a fantasy of a political savior who comes from the adversary’s side because one’s own has no answers. Israeli politics has become a junkyard of broken ideologies…We have failed to manufacture hope. Let the Palestinians do it.

In my view, Israeli supporters have absolutely no right to place the onus on the Palestinians by saying: “if only they embraced peace then Israel would surely respond in kind.”  This is a hopelessly romantic notion and a deeply deluded and destructive one as well.  If we’ve learned anything at all about this conflict and the nature of the two peoples, it is that neither has the right to demand of the other something it can’t or won’t do itself.

So if there is no accompanying movement for non-violence from Israel, there can and should be no expectation of the Palestinians.  I also find it immensely hypocritical that a people which has chosen to use massive amounts of force to maintain its evil, illegal Occupation of millions of Palestinians should complain that the other side doesn’t embrace non-violence.  I’d say when the IDF and Israeli leaders show they can embrace restraint, that is the moment when we should expect this of Palestinians.

One of the more telling passages in Gorenberg’s piece is this one which attempts to explain why neither Israeli nor Palestinians have ever taken to the path of strict non-violence:

Neither Palestinians nor Israelis are unusual for using deadly weapons to achieve political goals, or for making warriors into heroes. What may make Palestinians and Israelis stand out is the overwhelming place of victimhood in their national memories. In very different ways, the experience of powerlessness made picking up the gun a goal for both–an end, not just a means.

But despite this acuity, he insists on lapsing back into wishful thinking here:

…To conduct negotiations successfully with Israel, the Palestinians need a means other than arms to create pressure and “gravitational pull.” If once-sacred values have failed, the time seems ripe for a heresy. Perhaps, at last, there could be the opening for nonviolence.

Once again, this is a total pipe dream without an accompanying call from Israelis and there is no such call.

In appealing to the “great man” theory of history, Gorenberg, a religious Jew, seems to be appealing to a  supernatural or romantic ideal to bring him such a hero to lead Palestinians (and Israelis) out of their valley of despair to the Promised Land of peace:

What is lacking …is a “charismatic leader,” the figure who pulls crowds after him…The great-man theory of history has been maligned, but [it] is right.

This is a cop-out.  How often in history do we get Gandhis or Martin Luther Kings (or Obamas)?  Putting faith in a great man to get us out of the jam we have gotten ourselves into is a recipe for eternal hopelessness.  I’m afraid, imperfect as the rest of us are, we will need to do the job ourselves (or not do it at all).

It is telling and interesting that in his search for the “mythical” missing man, he overlooks someone who is actually a real flesh and blood figure: Marwan Barghouti (“At the end of a search for a missing man, I can imagine him. Earlier in his life, he would have believed in armed struggle. He would have acted on that belief and served time in an Israeli jail–so that he fit the myth before he sought to change it and so that his own life embodies what he asks of his followers.”)  Now, I am not saying that Barghouti believes in non-violence or that he is by any means a holy figure or even the perfect leader.  All leaders, both Palestinian and Israeli seem immensely flawed.

But Barghouti is someone who could unify both Palestinian factions.  Someone who, like Mandela, spent years in the jails of the enemy, who speaks his language, understands his psychological identity, both its strengths and weaknesses.  Until he is released from prison, we will not know whether Barghouti is just another corruptible thug, or a powerful leader with a vision for ending the conflict and securing his people’s future.

But the fact that Gorenberg concludes his article imagining a mythical man, when there is a real one (albeit not one committed philosophically to non-violence)  right in front of him betrays the severe limitations of his thesis that a solution for the conflict lies only in the hands of an imagined national champion of non-violence.

Finally, and perhaps most decisively, we should remember the fates of both Gandhi and Martin Luther King, who fell to the bullets of those who didn’t quite share their faith in the non-violent ideal.  Does Gershom Gorenberg or any Israeli have the right to even suggest that Palestinians should lay their lives down for an ideal not embraced in any significant way by Israelis?

Lest anyone get the wrong idea, I do not embrace or sanction violence.  I was a conscientious objector during the Vietnam War and detest the notion that violence or war successfully resolves conflicts.  My devoutest wish would be for Palestinian AND Israeli Gandhis together to lead such a non-violent protest march ending in a triumphant entry into Jerusalem.  But this is a vision for Messianic times I am afraid, and not for the rather horrid times in which we live.

Barghouti-Pollard Prisoner Swap? Say What??

Thursday, April 20th, 2006
BarghoutiMarwan Barghouti in Israeli chains, unbeaten and unbowed (credit: AP/Eitan Hess-Ashkenazi)

The Forward details yet another harebrained scheme suggesting the Olmert government has proposed to the U.S. that it release Jonathan Pollard in exchange for Israel releasing Marwan Barghouti. Here is Haaretz‘s slightly different take on the matter. There are many reasons why this seems utter foolishness: first, the rumor possibly arose from the circle of Pollard’s supporters making it automatically suspect. Second, prisoner exchanges always involve two enemies who swap prisoners that each mutual side wishes freed. But in this case, Israel gets Pollard but what does the U.S. get? Nothing. So where is the motivation for the U.S. to agree? More cloud cuckoo land stuff.

But the Forward raises some interesting issues regarding what might be Barghouti’s political role in Palestinian politics should Hamas fall:

…Sources said that while a swap is implausible, Israeli officials are considering the possibility of releasing Barghouti under certain circumstances. Barghouti, considered the most popular and charismatic figure in the younger generation of Fatah leadership, was sentenced in 2004 to five consecutive life terms for leading the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades and for ordering the murder of Israelis. While in prison, he led Fatah’s parliamentary slate in the Palestinian legislative elections this past January. He is widely seen as the only figure that could regroup Fatah and provide legitimacy to future negotiations with Israel if and when the Hamas government falls.

“Most senior officials in the political system and in the security apparatus realize that at some point, this man will have to be released because he’s probably the only one with whom we could sign an agreement,” said Shlomo Brom, a former top intelligence analyst now serving as a scholar at the congressionally funded United States Institute of Peace. “If the imperative is to bring about the collapse of the Hamas government as soon as possible, then it is also imperative to prepare for the day after.”

I can’t say that I’ve ever felt that Israel had enough foresight or acuity to look on Palestinian politics in such a rigorous or focused way. The idea that someone in Israeli intelligence is actually thinking that freeing Marwan Barghouti might lead to a way out of the current impasse between the Palestinian and Israeli governments seems overdoing it. To my mind, Israel’s calculations are usually much more short-term and therefore short-sighted.

To me this is yet another improbable means for Israel to dream of an alternative to Hamas. Instead of figuring out a way to create a modus vivendi with the new Palestinian government, some spooks in the Shin Bet are betting that Barghouti is the answer to their prayers. Let ‘im loose, sic him on Hamas and let Barghouti clean up the Palestinian mess for Israel. Wouldn’t it be nice if it could be so neat and tidy??

I’d bet that if Israel DID free Barghouti and he did take over the next Palestinian government he would be no pushover for the Israelis. He’d be just as tough a nut for Israel to crack as Hamas only different.

Olmert Seeks Bush Approval of West Bank Withdrawal and Setting Borders

Thursday, April 20th, 2006

Gershon Gorenberg notes in The Forward that Ehud Olmert has decided to speed up his timetable for the “major” West Bank settlement withdrawal he touted during the recent election campaign. He plans to complete it within 18 months. According to Gorenberg, Olmert had two considerations in mind. One is that he believes he may have a volatile coalition which might implode if he waits too long to act (i.e. strike while the political iron is hot). The second is U.S. politics. Olmert knows he has a friend in George Bush and he’d rather stick with the Pharaoh he knows than the future one he doesn’t, fearing that a new president will arise who “knows not” Olmert nor approves of his unilateralism:

Separation wall mapIsrael’s new unilateral internationa border?

The simplest explanation is that Olmert regards Bush as critical to his plan because of the president’s hands-off approach to the Israeli-Palestinian problem…Bush has put little diplomatic muscle into pushing either Israelis or Palestinians to follow that map…

Bush’s approach is ideal for Olmert. Since Olmert’s dramatic political conversion two-and-a-half years ago, when he declared that Israel needed to give up land to preserve its Jewish majority, he has favored unilateralism: Israel would draw its own borders, retain major settlements such as Ma’aleh Adumim and Ariel, and count on America for international backing.

Given the rising criticism Bush faces at home over his foreign policy record, there’s no reason for Olmert to expect continuity under the next president, especially when it comes to the Middle East. From Olmert’s perspective, therefore, it makes more sense to reshape the border quickly.

This is how the Wall Street Journal characterized his views in a recent interview given, no doubt, to set the stage for his upcoming visit to the States which will include his first meeting as head of state with Bush:

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says he intends to finalize plans for a large pullout from parts of the occupied West Bank within the next 18 months, and that he will travel to the U.S. next month to try to secure Washington’s support as he sketches the plan’s contours.

In an interview yesterday at his Jerusalem office, Mr. Olmert said his planned meeting with President Bush in Washington will mark the onset of efforts to secure international support for the pullout, including financial assistance. Under his plan, Mr. Olmert intends to evacuate as many as 70,000 Jewish settlers from their homes — a move that some rough estimates say could cost more than $10 billion — while annexing large chunks of disputed Palestinian territory.

The goal, Mr. Olmert said, is to establish permanent, internationally recognized borders that will ensure Israel retains its Jewish majority for decades to come. Though he expects to carry out the plan without Palestinian input, he believes it will help create conditions that could lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state and a negotiated peace settlement someday. “The State of Israel will change the face of the region,” Mr. Olmert said of his plan. “I will not miss this opportunity.”

Of course, Olmert is in cloud cuckoo land if he believes that the world will sign off on such heavy-handed Israeli unilateralism. And Bush too will share cloud cuckoo land with Olmert if he affirms Israeli delusions that they can both fix their borders beyond the Green Line and without Palestinian acquiescence. For this reason, what happens in Washington during Olmert’s visit is very important. Bush certainly will not turn down Olmert flat. But will he give Olmert the cover he covets to set final borders? Or will Bush try to give him half a loaf and hope that will suffice? Here’s more about Bush’s quandary from WSJ:

The Bush administration also might find itself in a bind. So far, Mr. Bush has voiced support for a West Bank pullout, but his administration will face tough decisions as the plan takes shape. Mr. Olmert, for instance, said Israel will need U.S. financial assistance to implement the evacuation.

Yet if it finances the pullout, the U.S. will likely be seen throughout the Middle East as assisting Israel’s bid to take permanent control of large settlement blocs and Jerusalem. The fear is that this would add to regional anger toward the U.S., complicating efforts to stabilize Iraq and promote democracy in other countries.

In the interview, Mr. Olmert called for broad international support, saying his plan was the only alternative to continued fighting. Once it is complete, he said, physical separation from the Palestinians will reduce daily friction and violence and leave Palestinians with land that could someday become a viable state.

This is yet another delusion on Olmert’s part. Of course, establishing international borders with Bush’s approval will sit quite nicely with the Israeli public. But it certainly will do nothing whatsoever to hasten the day when a Palestinian state is established. In fact, if Olmert could guarantee Israeli security through such borders along with the Separation Wall this would eliminate ANY incentive for him to negotiate regarding the creation of such a state. My guess is that if Bush gives away the store to Olmert on this trip (and I don’t expect him to do so) that we could kiss off the idea of a viable Palestinian state in our lifetimes.

As part of his discussion of Olmert’s coalition-forming strategy, Gorenberg provides a paragraph about Avigdor Lieberman’s brushes with the law. As with most right-wing Israeli politicians, Lieberman appears ethically-challenged:

A resident of Nokdim in the West Bank, Lieberman was convicted in 2001 of assaulting a 12-year-old boy from another settlement who’d beaten his son. The State Prosecutor’s Office is currently weighing the results of a police investigation into allegations of dealings with Russian organized crime and of campaign finance violations. Lieberman says he’s a victim of persecution. He also says the country is rife with crime, and he ran this year on a law-and-order platform, demanding his own appointment as minister of internal security — in charge of the police.

This is a man who on election night said he anticipated joining a coalition government with Kadima, adding that after the following election he expected to be leader of the coalition, i.e. prime minister. Lot’s of ambition, lots of moxie, and lot’s of baggage–both ethical and political.

Hamas to Play Major Role in Future Palestinian Government?

Monday, January 23rd, 2006

Haaretz reports that a Palestinian public opinion survey conducted by noted pollster Khalil Shikaki and released Saturday predicts that Fatah would gain 42% and Hamas 35% if elections were to be held today. The election is scheduled for January 25th.

Hamas crescent at election rallyHamas green crescent carried aloft at election rally (photo: Emilio Morenatti/AP)

If this poll result proves accurate then it appears that Fatah will win the election, but not by a substantial enough margin that it could govern without Hamas involvement in a Palestinian cabinet (unless Hamas accepts such an outcome which is doubtful). The U.S. and other international bodies have been talking tough about this prospect saying they cannot work closely with a government, one of whose members is on international terror lists:

[Secretary of State] Rice, in a statement last week, reiterated America’s view that “there should be no place in the political process for groups or individuals who refuse to renounce terror and violence, recognize Israel’s right to exist, and disarm.”
(The Forward, January 18th)

Bush is also talking about reducing aid to Palestine (Congress has ensured that this country gives a paltry sum to support Palestinian democracy). Both the U.S. and European Union have declared they will minimize contacts with any Hamas representatives who join the Palestinian leadership.

I see all this as political theater. They must say these things for their respective publics. But the fact of the matter is that if Hamas does well in this election (a result higher than 30%) then Fatah and everyone else is going to have to sit up and take notice. Hamas can no longer be ignored or written off as a legitimate Palestinian representative as it has until now. I should make clear that I’m no ardent fan of Hamas. I wish Fatah was a fully transparent movement running a stable PA. But it isn’t. Palestinians know this and many plan to vote the bums out. The only other bums who appear to be a better alternative are Hamas. So that’s where they will turn.

After joining a coalition government, Hamas will either–in a worst case scenario–try to have it both ways by participating in electoral politics AND maintaining its guerrilla war; or it will follow the path indicated by its electoral campaign so far by moderating its most extreme views of Israel in order to increase its support among Palestinians; or it will participate in electoral politics and show itself to be just as brutal and corrupt as Fatah. If I had my money on any eventuality it would be the middle one. I believe that Hamas will always be the most hardline of Palestinian parties. But I believe that participating in these and future elections will force it to behave as almost every other political party in the world does–by getting down and dirty into dealmaking on behalf of their constituents. Hamas will always have political ideals that I and almost all Jews and Israelis find objectionable. But the key question is–will the rough and tumble of retail politics turn Hamas into a party that wants to get things done (including a successful peace negotiation with Israel) rather than maintain hardline goals which can never be realized? My hunch is the answer is “yes.”

Two separate Hamas leaders (read Abu Tir‘s interview here) have made public statements in the past week indicating that negotiation with Israel at some future date is not out of the question and that Hamas’ charter calling for Israel’s demise is not permanent and inviolable. One of the leaders pointed to Hamas electoral platform, which tones down the Israel-hating rhetoric, as an indication that change is on the horizon. Now, I’m not one to be fooled by vague indications of progress. In fact, one right-wing Israeli media outlet claimed that Abu Tir denied the statements he was quoted as saying in Haaretz. At any rate, Hamas has a long way to go before they’ll be “kosher” in my eyes. But the signs I’ve been seeing have been positive, if not spectacular.

I wrote yesterday about my suspicion that Israel may have deliberately helped Hamas’ prospects by the escalating series of bellicose anti-Hamas statements it has made during this campaign. It appears that Israel (and the U.S.) may want to undo some of that damage (to Fatah’s prospects) by allowing Marwan Barghouti to give two interviews to Arab media (Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya). What is interesting about what I’ve read of the interviews is that while he encourages Palestinians to “establish a national reform government where everyone participates,” he never explicitly calls on voters to support Fatah. It just so happens that he is in the number 1 slot on the Fatah ticket and perhaps he assumes his listeners will know this and vote accordingly. But I also think he’s distancing himself from the hated Fatah Old Guard so he can stake a claim that goes beyond them when he finally resumes his role in Palestinian politics.

It’s also interesting to note that Ynet quotes unnamed Palestinian sources revealing that the deal allowing Barghouti to speak to the media was brokered by the State Department:

Palestinian sources said the interviews were arranged through American intervention. During a meeting between Assistant Secretary of State David Welch and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, the two agreed to focus on Barghouti as a leader not tainted by corruption, in the framework of the contest against Hamas.

It’s good to see that Condi Rice is still maintaining a positive role by jawboning the Israelis into allowing what they must’ve viewed with utter disdain–giving Barghouti an international mouthpiece.

Israeli Collusion With Palestinian Authority to Cancel Elections?

Thursday, December 22nd, 2005

Today, we have the odd spectacle of the Israeli government announcing it will not permit Palestinian residents of East Jerusalem to participate in the upcoming elections as long as Hamas participates. One thing I find horribly ironic about all this is that Israel prides itself on being one of the few Mideast democracies. Yet it seems to be doing just about everything in its power to ensure that Palestine will not become one. Of course, the ostensible reason it’s opposed to such democracy is Israel doesn’t like one of the parties participating: Hamas. Gee, I wonder how Israel would feel if the United States said it would end all aid to that country if it allowed a specific party to run in elections. Ouch, you Israelis wouldn’t like that, you say? Then imagine how the Palestinians are going to respond to this new outrage?

Hamas bannerHamas: the voice Israel wishes to silence at all costs

An even odder aspect of this announcement is that it’s entirely possible that Mahmoud Abbas and Fatah are colluding with Israel to cancel the elections since the Palestinian political party is in such utter disarray. First, Hamas made a much stronger showing than expected in the most recent round of municipal elections. Second, Marwan Barghouti is flexing his political muscle (even from an Israeli jail) by announcing a “Young Fatah” slate to compete with Abbas’ Old Fatah slate. I’ve heard commentators say they fully expect Barghouti and Abbas to iron out their differences before national elections begin next month. But Abbas has got to be petrified that as of now Braghouti would outpoll him, that the two Fatah factions would divide the vote and thus sweep Hamas into power. This possibility is frightening for everyone involved (except Hamas). While I too find this prospect frightening, I also find it bracing because a Hamas victory would put it to a severe test. Either it would become a governing party willing to make pragmatic decisions to advance national interests; or it would continue, even while governing, to try to be a revolutionary movement of armed struggle. If it attempts the latter option I predict it will fail miserably both as a governing party and as a revolutionary movement. This is essentially the pose that Arafat tried to maintain to his dying day. Didn’t work for him either.

At any rate, Fatah says that if the East Jerusalemites do not vote then there can be no elections.

I think an excellent indication of whether the Israeli refusal to allow the vote was Israel’s brilliant idea alone will be Secretary of State Rice’s response. If she is furious and makes her displeasure known to Israel publicly, then we’ll know this was Sharon’s doing. But if we hear a tempered response from State, then we’ll know that this is what all parties (including the U.S.) want.

If the latter turns out to be true it will be a very sad day for Mideast (specifically Palestinian) democracy. First, this would be the second cancelled Palestinian election. Second, it will indicate that Israel will not permit real Palestinian democracy. Third, it will signal that Bush’s supposed democratic agenda for the Mideast is entirely built on desert sand.

Of course, Israel’s justification for its decision is that East Jerusalem is sovereign Israeli territory and that its residents come under Israeli control. This belies the fact that Israel allowed these same Palestinians to vote in the last elections in 1996. And it further reinforces the notion that Israel intends to strangle East Jerusalem by cutting off all transportation, economic and political links with the West Bank and Gaza. This in turn would ensure that Israel controls Jerusalem in toto and in perpetuity.

Can anyone think of anything more depressing for the prospect of Israeli-Palestinian peace?

Yossi Beilin Has Seen the Future and He Is Marwan Barghouti

Thursday, December 8th, 2005

Yossi Beilin recently wrote an interesting column in the Forward in which he called for the immediate release of Marwan Barghouti from Israeli prison. Barghouti is perhaps the most celebrated and popular Palestinian leader today and his acclaim among his people only increases with each passing day he spends behind bars. A bit of background: in 2002, Israeli operatives kidnapped Barghouti from the Palestinian street, spirited him off to Israel and tried him as the architect of the 2000 Intifada.

BarghoutiMarwan Barghouti in Israeli chains but unbeaten (credit: AP/Eitan Hess-Ashkenazi)

Beilin, himself a former Justice Minister, is ambivalent on the question of how directly culpable Barghouti is (was he the intellectual author of the violence or did he indeed leave his fingerprints on specific acts of terror?). He makes the following conflicting statements:

From the moment he was arrested and brought to trial, the judges had no choice but to convict him. The evidence that he was responsible for directing terrorist acts was overwhelming

And then he says:

Barghouti is no saint, and there is every reason to argue that he is responsible, if only indirectly, for the murder of innocent people.

Beilin prudently argues that in order to achieve peace, we have to set aside issues of guilt or innocence in the interest of the greater good of finally and fully resolving the conflict. He recognizes, as do we all, that Abbas and the PA have neither the will nor the power necessary to neutralize Islamic Jihad or Hamas (should it return to the path of terror). Only a figure such as Barghouti, the Malcolm X AND DeGaulle of his people, can neutralize whatever reservoir of authenticity that attaches to these militant groups.

That Barghouti will be freed is a virtual certainty according to Beilin:

Barghouti will be released. It almost certainly will take place as part of a permanent-status agreement. It could come about as part of a prisoner swap with an organization like Hezbollah.

If the latter is the case, then it would be preferable to do it now. Once Barghouti is free, he will be able to join Abbas and help him to lead the areas under P.A. control. If Israel is interested in a strong Palestinian partner that is capable of administering law and order and of standing up to Hamas, this is Israel’s opportunity.

Barghouti is no saint…[but] almost all conflicts similar to ours come to an end when those responsible for instigating the violence sign an agreement.

And when someone asks us — as they inevitably will after we release Barghouti — how we can look the orphans and the widows in the eye, we will tell him that our job is to prevent future orphans and widows.

Does Israel want to face an endless series of terror attacks like the one in Netanyahu this week? Or is it willing to take a risk that might lead to a serious and lasting breakthrough in the struggle for peace? Condi Rice, a few weeks ago, weighed in on a difficult and contentious matter that blocked agreement between Israel and the Palestinians on the Rafah border crossing. It behooves her to get involved with this issue as well. The U.S. could broker Barghouti’s release if it wanted to. If it chooses not to I’d ask–do you have a better alternative–because the current options aren’t working.

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