Tikun Olam-תקון עולם: Make the World a Better Place

Billmon is writing some of the most incisive analysis of the Lebanon conflict in the entire blogosphere. He’s outrageously cynical (which is unfortunately perfectly warranted), but brilliantly so. Tonight’s post, The War Party, is no exception. It covers so much ground that it’s hard to summarize briefly.

Suffice to say, he begins with Ned Lamont’s senate campaign and the presumed demise of Joe Lieberman’s political career. But he warns that while Lamont is against one war, he’s not against every war. In other words, Lamont has hitched himself to the Aipac wagon just as securely as Lieberman. Lamont will not dare take a critical view of Israel’s Lebanon war and any other war that might derive from it. So to those who plan on rejoicing when Lamont wins, saying it presages the Party coming to its senses regarding the Iraq war and other possible U.S. military misadventures, Billmon says “not so fast.”

Yes, Billmon is one of those who believes a U.S. war with Iran is not only likely, but nigh unto inevitable. In losing the Lebanon war, Israel has practically forced the U.S. to intervene against Iran. Billmon notes the very real possibility that in the event of Iraqi civil war that Iran could become the dominant outside influence there much like Syria was in Lebanon until recently. This would enable Iran to provoke even more mischief in Lebanon than it currently can since it would have practically an open border conduit from Iraq to Syria and thence to Lebanon. He believes that not only Israel, but the U.S. will find this development intolerable and go to war to roll Iranian dominance back. Billmon also throws out some deeply depressing figures about how many casualties a nuclear strike against Iran might generate.

In calling the post The War Party, he’s referring not the Republicans as you might expect, but to the Democrats. He believes that the party we hold so dear (hmmm) will go along with a war with Iran because it’s just too politically costly to oppose one. As proof, he points to the Democrats rollover on the Iraq war. Though we might like to believe that the Dems learned their lesson in not opposing Iraq, Billmon says essentially: never overestimate the Democratic party’s capacity to delude itself when it comes to national security and war.

It’s most depressing stuff, but so absolutely compelling, lucid and brilliantly argued as to be mandatory reading I’m afraid. As I read posts of his like this I find myself alternating between feelings of pleasure at the breathtaking sweep of his writing and argument; and feelings of horror at the vision of a potential World War III emanating from the Mideast conflict.

tags billmon, democrats-feeble-opposition-party, israel, lebanon-invasion, mideast-war, ned-lamont, u.s.-war-with-iran, whiskey-bar

Ehud Olmert definitely inhabits some parallel universe to the one the rest of us live in. Witness this set of dueling quotes from today’s Haaretz.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said on Wednesday that Israel’s offensive in Lebanon had “entirely destroyed” the infrastructure of Hizbollah, citing the reduced number of rockets hitting Israel.

“I think Hizbollah has been disarmed by the military operation of Israel to a large degree,” he said.

And this:

After two days in which Hezbollah fired almost no rockets at Israel, some 210 rockets and missiles were launched on Wednesday toward northern communities - the largest number since the beginning of the fighting.

One man, Dave Lalchuk, 52, of Kibbutz Sa’ar, was killed and 16 others were wounded, three moderately, in the attacks.

Long-range rockets and missiles also fell in the Palestinian Authority between Jenin and Beit She’an and in the area of Afula.

The above article neglects to mention that the Beit She’an rocket landed a full 35 miles south of the border and was one of the more advanced Fajr rockets that Hezbollah has in its arsenal, but which it has used sparingly until now.

tags lebanon-invasion, olmert-hezbollah-disarmed, record-number-of-rockets-fall-on-israel

David of Sago Boulevard argues with me in my comments thread that Ehud Olmert really does care about the civilians his forces are killing in Lebanon. He takes me to task for being overly cynical in not acceptingthe sincerity of Olmert’s expressions of regret. Well, David, that’s all been shot to shit now. Here’s the NY Times quoting a Foreign Ministry official (Mark Regev perhaps?) who was too chicken-shit even to attach his name to this utterly cynical statement about the REAL REASON for the so-called Israeli ceasefire (which was one in name only since Israel essentially honored it only in the breach):

An Israeli Foreign Ministry official said Israel had agreed to the suspension and a 24-hour safe-passage period for civilians heading out of southern Lebanon as a way to “take the steam” out of Sunday’s bombing in Qana. But he also said the fight against Hezbollah would continue until there was a diplomatic solution that stopped the rocket fire against Israel and that deployed an international force on the border. “We couldn’t ignore Qana,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity, as is customary. “And if we want to continue to get the full cease-fire we want, with an international force, it was important to change the tone and the conversation.”

Then there’s this ‘delightful’ (horrible, actually) admission of IAF ineptitude from none other than ‘Toothy Whites’ Peres:

Vice Prime Minister Shimon Peres, speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, said the bombing in Qana was aimed at rocket launchers 300 yards from where the civilians were, a distance commanders considered large enough to avoid the risk of hitting them. He said Israel was investigating what had gone wrong.

‘Israel was investigating what had gone wrong.” When have we heard that one before? After the IDF shelled a Gaza beach killing an entire sunbathing family. Sure, you investigate Qana. Lotta good it’ll do. Oops. We goofed. 60 civilians up in smoke and somehow we got it all wrong.

This atrocious mistake (if you believe it was one) is emblematic of the entire tragic mistake that is the Lebanon invasion. It will go down in history as one of Israel’s worst hours. Those associated with it will eventually have their political careers and reputations tarnished in much the same way that Ariel Sharon’s was for decades until he came out of the wilderness to become prime minister. But for people like Halutz, Olmert and Peretz I don’t think there will be a similar ‘redemption.’

If you want to read some perverse logic, this is what an unnamed Israeli official says about the role Hezbollah should play in the runup to a ceasefire:

In such a cease-fire…which Hezbollah would have to agree through the Lebanese government, the official said

Isn’t it strange that Israel’s position here contradicts the U.S. position which miraculously anticipates the pecekeeping force will impose its will on Hezbollah. The Israelis appear to be taking the French view which is that the force cannot work as long as Hezbollah does not agree to it. But Israel’s thinking is entirely different than France’s. Israel believes Hezbollah will not agree to the deployment thus giving it (Israel) even more time to punish the group for having the temerity to resist the IDF. It WANTS Hezbollah to refuse to cooperate.

One thing that most of the media are either missing or only noting in passing is that Hezbollah has clearly reciprocated Israel’s alleged ceasefire. Only two mortar shells have landed inside Israel (and no Katyushas). This is a smart move on the group’s part (kudos to Billmon for anticipating Hezbollah’s response). It shows a reasonableness that Israel has been neither able nor willing to display. It indicates Hezbollah understands reciprocity and proportionality. It indicates that if the U.S. and Israel actually had any interest in negotiating with it (has v’halilah–”God forbid), that they might find Hezbollah a credible partner for negotiation. No chance of that actually happening, but I think Hezbollah has scored points on the world stage with its own ceasefire.

I’m not singing Hezbollah’s praises here because I have little good to say about it. I’m merely analyzing their tactics, which are smart in this particular case. The group continues to be more nimble, more flexible and more resilient than Israel and runs rings around it.

tags hezbollah-ceasefire, israeli-48-hour-suspension-of-air-war, lebanon-invasion, take-the-steam-out-of-qana

I’m calling it A.Q–After Qana. Everything that happens after Qana in this miserable conflict will be colored by Israel’s grisly massacre there yesterday. And everything that happened before as well. At the beginning of the current war, I predicted here that such a gruesome event would occur and that it would spell the end of the operation. I didn’t know what precisely would happen and when. But I knew such a horrible accident had to happen given the IDF’s awful record of killing the guilty with the innocent in Gaza. Now it has.

The only question is whether the Bush Administration has enough saychel (”common sense”) to realize that Israel has played its last card and that it’d be best to call it quits before far worse things transpire. The NY Times characterizes our ‘disastrous’ position thus:

By refusing to call for an immediate cease-fire, even in the face of the Qana bombing, Ms. Rice was teetering on the edge of a public relations disaster, particularly in the Arab world. All day on Sunday, scenes of dead children being pulled out of the wreckage at Qana dominated the airwaves…

Israeli officials continued to say, publicly, that they needed more time to diminish Hezbollah’s military abilities, and America’s insistence on reaching agreement on a political package before calling for a cease-fire worked to give Israel that time.

But that left the impression that Ms. Rice and the Bush administration were willing to stomach the killing of innocent children to reach their larger aims.

And given this cloud-cuckoo land comment from the State Department’s number 3 official, I’d say the U.S. is still willing to drink that Israeli cool-aid:

This has not been a good 2 1/2 weeks for Hezbollah from a military point of view, and they’ve got to be worried about continued Israeli offensive operations.”

I’d say Mr. Nicholas Burns, you’ve got a lot more to be worried about than Hezbollah does. Israel has just blown U.S. Mideast policy and its own invasion to smithereens and you’re still crowing about how cool the Israeli operation has been. Reality bites and it’s just bitten you, Mr. Secretary.

I’m hoping that this abrupt turnabout in Israel policy is the beginning of the end of its abominable invasion of Lebanon. But you wouldn’t know it from this desperate Israeli attempt to escape the obvious:

A senior government source said Monday morning that despite a 48-hour halt in Israel Air Force activity in Lebanon, “there is no cease-fire.”

…[Justice Minister Haim] Ramon told Army Radio: “This (suspension) decision will allow us to continue the war over time and it will take off some of the political pressure, so I am sure this is the right decision for now. It is not stopping the war.

“If it ends today it means a victory for Hezbollah … and for world terror, with far-reaching consequences. Therefore this war is not about to end, not today and not tomorrow,” he said.

Imagine the incredulity with which I greeted this bit of chutzpah from the IDF which essentially says, “well, maybe we weren’t responsible after all:”

The Israel Defense Forces indicated yesterday that it might not have been responsible for the deaths of at least 54 Lebanese, including 37 children , when a building bombed in an Israeli air strike in the village of Qana collapsed yesterday - but was unable to offer an alternative explanation.

The IDF is claiming that it bombed the building at 12 midnight but that it didn’t fall down immediately. What it’s leaving out is that a precision guided bomb could easily kill all the inhabitants with its impact without necessarily immediately bringing the structure down. If you look at images of the dead you can see that the bodies of almost all are quite intact. It wasn’t the building’s colapse that killed them but the blast force of the bomb. To argue otherwise is, well, simply preposterous. I’d urge them to give it up, face facts and fess up.

You’ll recall that Israel responded to Jan Egeland’s recent proposal for a 72 hour ceasefire allowing Lebanese refugees to flee their villages for safety by saying there was no need for it. Amazing how a grisly massacre can make a nation suddenly become a little bit more responsive to the world’s moral concerns:

The bombing, the bloodiest incident in Israel’s 18-day campaign against Hizbullah, drew condemnation from around the world. Late last night Israel announced a suspension of aerial activities in southern Lebanon for 48 hours and said it would coordinate with the UN to allow a 24-hour window for residents in southern Lebanon to leave the area if they wished.

For more on this ghastly massacre read the Guardian’s heartbreaking coverage. This article says the death toll will climb north of 60 and that 34 of the dead were children. There were only eight known survivors of 100 people sheltering in the building. I never would have thought that I would call the IDF child murderers. I don’t go in for histrionics and overstatement. But what else can you call this? There are now 750 Lebanese dead, mostly civilians and half children.

Oh and hey, George Bush, your fingerprints are all over this too. Guess who supplied the bomb that killed them:

The strike that destroyed the building was a precision-guided bomb dropped from the air, the same kind of bomb that destroyed a UN position in Khiyam last week, killing four UN observers. Writing on an olive green fragment of the munition which appeared to have caused the explosion read: GUIDED BOMB BSU 37/B.

The IDF response to their deadly act has been worse than pathetic. The reason they bombed the building? Because rockets had been fired from Qana. Notice they didn’t say that rockets had been fired from the building. In fact they admit that they hadn’t:

…The house that was hit had no direct connection to the rocket-launching cells.

It appears that the building may’ve been hit because of the IDF’s contention that Hezbollah fighters run for cover to civilian buildings after launching rockets:

IAF officials said that immediately after firing rockets at Israel, some Hezbollah cells hide in civilian houses in built-up areas in southern Lebanon.

So in order to deprive Hezbollah of cover you destroyed a building killing 60 civilians in the process. Bravo!

What about that vaunted IDF intelligence prowess? Listen to the clear logic of this Qana resident:

Mohsen Hachem stared at the images. “They had to have known there were children in that house,” he said. “The drones are always overhead, and those children - there were more than 30 - would play outside all day.”

You mean to tell me that the IAF bombed a building without taking any daylight reconnaissance photos of it? And if they’d taken those photos you could undoubtedly tell civilians were in and around it. It simply beggars belief.

More from the masters of moral obfuscation at the IDF:

“We don’t know what the people were doing in the basement. It is possible they were being used as shields or being used cynically to further Hizbullah’s propaganda purposes,” the spokesman said. “We apologise. We couldn’t be more sorry about the loss of civilian life.”

Why certainly. It’s all Hezbollah’s fault. Somehow a Hezbollah fighter managed to drop that bomb on that building. But really, to say Hezbollah forced the civilians to be in the building without providing a shred of evidence that this is so–it shows utter desperation on the IDF’s part to foist the blame where it doesn’t belong. No, I’m afraid this time you’ll have to shoulder all the blame yourself, IDF.

Let’s give the last word to one of the eight survivors:

Zaineb Shalhoub, in the next bed, rested quietly.

“There’s nobody left in our village,” she said. “Not a human or a stone.”

tags bush-administration-support-for-israel, hezbollah, iaf, idf-bombing-lebanese-civilians, israeli-ceasefire, lebanon-invasion, nicholas-burns, qana-massacare, u.s.-arming-israel

It is important when hatred strikes, as it did yesterday here in Seattle, to invoke the dead, to celebrate them as human beings, to appreciate what they brought to life so that he may feel all the more what has been lost. And we also must note the killer because he is a human being too, though a destructive and malevolent one. Just as there is tragedy on both sides of the Israeli-Arab conflict, so there is a double tragedy in Seattle.

The Seattle Times profiles both the dead and the killer today.

Pam Waechter, 58, was born in Minnesota and raised Lutheran. Then she met Bill Waechter and when they married she converted to Judaism. It is terribly ironic that a woman who elects to convert to Judaism in order to share the joy and fate of the Jewish people should pay the ultimate price for that commitment. They came to Seattle in 1979 where they raised two children and then divorced.

She was director of the Federation’s annual campaign. [Note: I too have been a fundraiser for two Jewish federations though I never worked at the Seattle Federation] Before that she’d worked at Jewish Family Service.

The Times provides this touching personal background about Waechter:

In both her paid and volunteer work, she was known as a mediator, always bringing a calm, balanced approach to problems.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if Pam stepped in to protect other people,” said Marshall Brumer, a past president of Temple B’nai Torah. “That’s the kind of person she was.”

At the Bellevue synagogue this morning, Rabbi James Mirel called Waechter “the most positive, optimistic person you ever met.” From the pulpit, he told the congregation, “Pam would have said, ‘You have to go on.’”

Chuck Hall, 56, of Minneapolis, explained that “no” was the one word his sister wouldn’t say. He described her as a friend to people of all ages, from 20 to 80.

She also was one of his closest friends. They talked about dating after divorce. They talked about what would happen to their children, when they died. Just last week, Hall brought up the conflict in the Middle East, asking the question: When is it ever going to end?

His sister had no answer. She only sighed.

Waechter believed in the basic goodness of people. So if the scene on Friday had unfolded elsewhere, her brother said, she would have called him right away to say: Can you imagine somebody would do that?

She would not have mentioned first the fact that the shooter was Muslim, Hall said. She was not that kind of woman.

Given family history, he said, Waechter was relieved to make it this far in life. Their mother died at age 56, of breast cancer. Waechter always saw that age as a milestone she needed to make it past.

Waechter’s funeral will be 1 p.m. Monday at Temple B’nai Torah, 15727 NE Fourth St., Bellevue, according to the synagogue. The service will be open to the public.

Naveed Haq, 30, was raised in Pasco, WA in a second-generation Pakistani-American family. The Times provides some information about his family background:

Haq’s parents were shaken by the news that their son was in custody for the shootings, said Haq’s Kennewick defense attorney, Larry Stephenson.

“I talked to his father, and his mother is crying, and they don’t know what is going on,” Stephenson said. “They are very, very shook up. They haven’t been able to reach their son.”

Haq had been charged with misdemeanor lewd conduct in Benton County for allegedly exposing himself in a public place in Kennewick, Stephenson said. He declined to elaborate. The charge is punishable by up to a year in jail.

The case had been scheduled to go to trial in Benton County District Court on Thursday, but was postponed.

Stephenson said he does not believe Haq is married or has children. Stephenson said he did not believe Haq had a job.

Haq went to college, Stephenson said, but he declined to say where.

Asked if Haq had any mental-health issues, Stephenson said he couldn’t comment. “I’m really not OK to discuss that,” he said.

Haq’s father, Mian A. Haq, was a founding member of the Islamic Centre of Tri-Cities in Richland, said center member Youseff Shehadeh. He described the younger Haq as a loner who attended holidays at the center but was barely involved in recent years.

Naveed Haq’s parents moved into a new suburb in Pasco less than three years ago after living in nearby Richland for more than a decade, said Maureen Hales, a neighbor.

Mian Haq was involved in an Islamic center in Richland, but he did not discuss his religion with his neighbors, said Hales.

She said she had not seen Naveed Haq, but found his parents and his younger brother, Hasan, to be “quite enjoyable.” The two families exchanged food, and Maureen Hales said she watches the Haqs’ house when they’re away.

Until two weeks ago, he’d lived in Everett, WA., a small city about 30 miles north of Seattle:

Naveed Haq lived in an apartment building at 2924 Nassau St. in Everett until about two weeks ago, when he abruptly left, said tenant Chris Richey. The landlady told Richey that Haq was heading to Pakistan. Richie often talked with Haq about guns and politics, though little stuck out. Richey said Haq didn’t like President Bush.

Haq told Richey he owned a .45-caliber handgun, which he kept locked up in safety deposit box.

The law-enforcement source said Haq had a license to carry a concealed weapon.

“There was something strange about him,” Richey said. “There was something about him I didn’t like.”

A law enforcement source told the Times that he had a history of mental illness. One wonders how a man with a history of mental illness can get a license to carry a 9mm semi-automatic pistol. Yet another example of rampant gun violence and the price society pays for being hijacked by the NRA. He also has a charge of lewd conduct pending against him:

Haq had been charged with misdemeanor lewd conduct in Benton County for allegedly exposing himself in a public place in Kennewick, Stephenson said.

You’ll note that the Lebanon invasion began two weeks ago just as Haq abandoned his Everett home. One wonders whether the two events might be connected. Yesterday, he made his way to the Jewish Federation headquarters with a gun. He forced his way into the building and, after telling employees he was a Muslim who was angry with Israel he began shooting. Pam Waechter, a 58 year old fundraiser for the Federation was killed and five other women were injured, three critically.

Here is what is known of his motivation for the crime:

“He said he hates Israel,” said the source, who is part of the Seattle Joint Terrorism Task Force, which was called in to help investigate the shootings.

…He told the police that it was a hostage situation and he wanted us to get our weapons out of Israel,” said one woman who heard the account from the wounded co-worker.

The Times lists this information about the wounded survivors:

One of the victims was identified by family members as 23-year-old Layla Bush. “We just heard she’s alive a minute or two ago,” said her mother, Kathryn Bush, from her home in Panama City, Fla. The other wounded victims have been identified as Carol Goldman, Dayna Klein, Christina Rexroad and Cheryl Stumbo.

Thankfully, Muslim leaders in Seattle and nationally have condemned the violence.

UPDATE

Another Seattle Times article adds this important information confirming his mental illness and his history of hatred of Jews:

Haq often talked about guns, politics and his dislike of President Bush, Richey said. Haq told Richey he owned a .45-caliber handgun, which he kept locked in a safe-deposit box.

A friend of Haq’s in Everett, who spoke on condition he not be named, said Friday night that Haq was on medication for bipolar disorder and was frustrated by his inability to find a job or a girlfriend. Haq displayed a streak of anti-Semitism, sometimes making offhand comments about Jews.

“He was a loner,” the friend said. “I was probably one of his only friends.”

Although Haq made a point of announcing his Muslim faith before opening fire Friday, he had told the friend he was not a practicing Muslim because he was turned off by the religion’s strict gender divisions.

The article also notes that the feds have apparently decided to invoke a federal hate crime which would remove it from Seattle or state jurisdiction:

A man who answered the door at the Haq family’s house Friday night said the house was a federal crime scene.

This would also feed into the Bush war on terror agenda allowing the Republicans to show how tough they are on domestic terrorism in an election year. Yes, it’s playing politics with the dead time back in D.C.

tags anti-semitism, hatred-of-israel, lebanon-invasion, naveed-haq, pamela-waechter-murdered, seattle-jewish-federation-shooting

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Condi Rice is gearing up for some major diplomatic efforts to resolve the Lebanon crisis. She takes off for the Mideast on Sunday. I'm being a bit presumptuous in assuming that a diplomatic mission that has hardly begun will fail. But I'm afraid that it must. And even if she does broker some sort of agreement (doubtful as that may be), I do not see any way it can succeed in the long run. I say this for several reasons. First, the U.S. is no longer an honest broker in either the Israeli-Hezbollah or Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It is a partisan of one side over the other. This will make Hezbollah ...