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Posts Tagged ‘israeli-intelligence’

Widening Regional Escalation Anticipated After Israeli Attack on Iran

Sunday, February 5th, 2012

Several interesting developments concerning the simmering war between Israel and Iran.  The website of the Iranian Majlis published a report (in Farsi) by the director of an official government think tank that advocates Iranian attacks against Israeli sites.  The author argues that Israel’s sustained attacks within Iran demand a response.  An Israeli TV news report says (in Hebrew) that the Iranian website calls for a “pre-emptive” attack on Israel, and not one that is purely in response to an Israeli first strike.  Though it is reflective of the Israel’s narrow thinking that they would call such an Iranian strike “pre-emptive,” when Israel has already attacked Iran.  One of the specific sites indicated for targeting was Sdot Micha, Israel’s secret missile base and home of its Jericho intercontinental missile arsenal.

You’ll recall that an Israeli source told me that a drone crashed into that base, which may’ve been tied to Iran and/or Hezbollah origins.  Whether or not this story was true, the new report from Iran indicates that the country’s leadership very much has this sort of strike in its mind and would be interested in responding to Israel’s numerous domestic attacks against Iranian bases and nuclear scientists.

A Western diplomat based in Pakistan has added a new wrinkle to the Israel war scenario.  He says a new player should be considered as a protagonist if Israel strikes:

A European diplomat based in Pakistan, permitted to speak only under condition of anonymity, said that if Israel attacks, Islamabad will have no choice but to support any Iranian retaliation. That raises the specter of putting a nuclear-armed Pakistan at odds with Israel, widely believed to have its own significant nuclear arsenal.

I personally think it’s unlikely Pakistan officially would join the fight on Iran’s side.  But it wouldn’t have to to weigh in on the subject.  Pakistanis already detest the U.S. for assassinating Osama bin Laden and our serial drone attacks which violate national sovereignty.  When Ayatollah Khomeini announced a fatwa against Salman Rushdie in 1989, the first nation which took up the call wasn’t Iran, but Pakistan.  It’s likely that Iran will activate its influence inside Afghanistan to make our lives miserable there should it be attacked by Israel.  With the Pakistani Taliban joining in the fight and attacking U.S. assets wherever they find them, it could make our presence in large portions of the region almost impossible to sustain.

Not to mention, while Iran doesn’t yet have a nuke, Pakistan does. While it likely would not use its nukes to defend Iran, just the fact that it has them automatically makes the calculations a lot more complex.

In the current climate, it’s hard to know what information is credible and what is based on exaggeration.  We need to weigh that in evaluating the value of the reports above.  But even if we downgrade some or all of it, in its entirety is signals an escalation in the thinking of Arab-Muslim elements in the region.  Many among them are already thinking about making Israel and the U.S. pay the price for attacking if they do.

Israeli strategic thinking on this subject remains mired in self-delusion:

Defense Minister Ehud Barak claimed during a high-profile security conference that there is a “wide global understanding” that military action may be needed.

“There is no argument about the intolerable danger a nuclear Iran (would pose) to the future of the Middle East, the security of Israel and to the economic and security stability of the entire world,” Barak said.

The opposite is the case.  There is a wide global understanding that military actions would be a very bad idea.  And there certainly is a strong argument against the idea that a nuclear Iran would pose a danger to world stability.  In fact, the only people who believe this are some of Israel’s top leaders, Islamophobes around the world, and neocons in the U.S. and Israel.  It’s interesting how Barak attempts to parlay that rather narrow body of opinion into an overwhelming world consensus.

Is Israel’s Iranophobia Virus Contagious?

Saturday, February 4th, 2012
iran revolutionary guard

Coming soon to a synagogue or embassy near you...the IRG bogeyman (AFP/Getty)

ABC News today publishes a leaked (from whom?) memo drafted by Israeli intelligence sources warning of terror threats against Israeli government sites in this country and American Jewish communal facilities from the dreaded “Iran menace.”  If you heard this story on the TV news it would sound persuasive, until you began to examine the assumptions behind it.  It begins by declaring the alleged assassination plot against the Saudi ambassador as a given.  This passage quotes a federal official mouthing the Israeli line:

“The thwarted assassination plot of a Saudi official in Washington, D.C., a couple of months ago was an important data point,” added the official, “in that it showed at least parts of the Iranian establishment were aware of the intended event and were not concerned about inevitable collateral damage to U.S. citizens had they carried out an assassination plot on American soil.”

“That was an eye opener, showing that they did not care about any collateral damage,” the federal official said.

Note the vagueness of “parts of the Iranian establishment were aware of the…event.”  This doesn’t even place direct blame for the alleged plot on Iranian leaders themselves.  It only says they were aware of it and didn’t object.  What’s also ironic about this is that I haven’t seen any U.S. expression of concern for those Iranians murdered as “collateral damage” from Mossad and MEK terror attacks inside Iran. Perhaps when we do then we can expect Iranians to care about collateral damage to citizens in this country from acts of terror no one has even been able to prove were planned.

So from a single alleged planned act of terror, Israel and U.S. intelligence operatives have spun a narrative of ongoing threat from the Iranians.  They could strike anywhere at any time.  They’re out there, out to get us: New York City, Los Angeles, Boston, Chicago.  Wherever there are Jews there is danger.  We have to be vigilant.  Because they hate us.  They all hate us.  We have to put the threat of terror in the front of our minds.  We have to become paranoid, as paranoid as the Israeli and U.S. intelligence officials are postulated this nightmare scenario:

Israeli facilities in North America — and around the world — are on high alert, according to an internal security document obtained by ABC News that predicted the threat from Iran against Jewish targets will increase.

“We predict that the threat on our sites around the world will increase … on both our guarded sites and ‘soft’ sites,” stated a letter circulated by the head of security for the Consul General for the Mid-Atlantic States. Guarded sites refers to government facilities like embassies and consulates, while ‘soft sites’ means Jewish synagogues, and schools, as well as community centers like the one hit by a terrorist bombing in Buenos Aires in 1994 that killed 85 people.

The head of Shin Bet, Israel’s internal security service, told an audience at a closed forum in Tel Aviv recently that Iran is trying to hit Israeli targets…

Local and regional law enforcement and intelligence officials in U.S. and Canadian cities, including New York, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and Toronto have been monitoring the situation closely for several weeks, and have stepped up patrols at Israeli government locations and Jewish cultural and religious institutions. They have issued awareness bulletins reminding officers to stay vigilant.

Federal officials in those cities told ABC News that they have also increased their efforts to watch for any threat stream pointing to an imminent attack on either Israeli facilities, Jewish cultural or religious institutions or other “soft targets.”

So because some mid-level Israeli security operative spins a tale of dread, every American Jew must start looking under his bed for hidden Iranian agents out to get him (or her). If you parse this carefully, there is absolutely no proven threat mentioned, no chatter in the terror networks, no identifiable enemy operatives. Just a load of paranoia from a bunch of spooks telling us the Iranian bogeymen are out there, somewhere, waiting, just waiting. For what?

So you want proof that there’s a threat? Here it is:

“In the past few weeks, there has been an escalation in threats against Israeli and Jewish targets around the world,” one regional document noted. “Open source has reported many demonstrations against Israel are expected to be concentrated on Israeli embassies and consulates. Such demonstrations have occurred internationally as well as domestically. These demonstrations could potentially turn violent at local synagogues, restaurants, the Israeli Embassy and other Israeli sites. … Law enforcement should be vigilant when making periodic checks at all Jewish facilities.

So get this: the “threat” is from protesters at Israeli embassies and consulates.  Why?  How?  Doesn’t say.  Are there Iranian agents who’ve infiltrated these protests?  And what protests?  I haven’t heard of any to speak of.  Are Iranians demonstrating at Israeli embassies over threats against Iran?  Hadn’t heard of that.  But the end result here is Israel is setting the stage for its own attack on Iran leading to such protests by Iranians and others who oppose violence, and these protesters will be seen as potential terrorist saboteurs out to get Israelis or any American Jew they can find.

What the hell will the Israelis do with all the American Jews who will be out there on the picket lines?  Perhaps we’ll be double agents betraying our people and nation by siding with the enemy.  It would suit the absurdist ultranationalist narrative represented by Netanyahu and the Israeli war party.  I’ve got news for them.  They can attempt to insinuate their own fears into American society and use us for their own interests in ginning up hate against Iran.  But I’m not buying it.  I’m not going to be party to the epidemic of war fever they’re trying to inject into the body politic.  I’m going to stay calm and rational.  If they want to cry wolf, let them.  The rest of us will be here to point out the hysteria and unfounded claims of Bibi’s hawkmeisters.

There’s another delightful (in a twisted sort of way) irony in the following:

…The Israeli bulletin warned that Israel’s own passports might be used by terrorists intent on carrying out a plot.

Now isn’t that cute.  Israeli caused a massive international scandal by cloning passports of its own citizens for use by the Dubai assassins who murdered Mahmoud al-Mabouh.  The Mossad violated the sovereignty of its own allies in the process.  Now they have the chutzpah to tell us that they accuse Iran of planning to do the same thing.  As if there’s no justice in that, and the whole world should be shocked, I say shocked that Iran might do to Israelis what Israel itself did to them by putting them in harm’s way.

Here’s the final coup de grâce of this charade:

…We operate according to the information that Iran and Hezbollah are working hard and with great intensity to release a ‘quality’ attack against Israeli/Jewish sites around the world.

Don’t you just love the use of that word “quality?”  It made me want to throw up.  Of course Iran may be “working hard” to attack Israel and its interests.  If enemy leaders and generals threatened your country virtually every day with violent attack, you’d plan the same thing as a response to an attack.  Aside from the purported Saudi assassination plot, Iran has shown no willingness to engage in any act of terror against Israeli or Jewish interests.  And I predict they likely will not do so until and unless Israel attacks.  But I invite Israeli intelligence officials to offer real evidence, instead of rumor-and fear-mongering.

Former White House Scientist Sentenced for Trying to Spy for Mossad

Wednesday, September 7th, 2011

If any one ever needed any justification for FBI spying on the official Israeli governmental presence in this country (diplomats and covert agents included) they need look no farther than today’s news that a former senior White House scientist, spied on behalf of Israel’s major aerospace defense contractor (the Israeli equivalent of Boeing or Martin Marietta), earning several hundred thousand dollars in the process:

A former senior government scientist who held the highest security clearances pleaded guilty to espionage on Wednesday and agreed to a 13-year prison term for selling top-secret information on military satellites and other technology to an F.B.I. agent posing as an Israeli spy.

The scientist, Stewart D. Nozette, 54, who worked at the White House in 1989-90 and helped lead the search for water on the moon, was not charged with spying for Israel.

But Dr. Nozette consulted for a state-owned Israeli company, identified in the Israeli news media as Israel Aerospace Industries, from 1998 to 2008. The company paid him a total of $225,000 for answering technical questions it posed monthly, according to court documents.

The report calls Nozette one of the highest ranking U.S. scientists ever to be caught trying to spy for a foreign power.  And it certainly is no accident that the foreign power in this case is Israel, since an internal CIA survey found Israel’s intelligence operations in this country to be third most intrusive behind Russia’s and China’s.  That’s some pretty august company if you ask me.

Let those Israelis beating their breast asking “is this the way allies treat each other” stop the wailing and gnashing of teeth.  The type of surveillance operation in which Shamai Leibowitz worked in the FBI is critical in order to stop precisely this sort of betrayal of U.S. interests.  And lest anyone argue there is a qualitative difference between the military secrets stolen by the Israelis and the activities uncovered by Leibowitz’ leaked material–there is.  But the difference is a matter of degrees and not of magnitude.

Giving Israel our secret satellite technology is certainly a severe breach, but an attack on Iran, facilitated to some degree by Israel’s diplomatic community is equally serious if not more so.

Another nugget Scott Shane included in his report is this information which leads one to believe that there is almost no difference between Israeli defense companies and Israeli intelligence:

In September 2009, the undercover F.B.I. agent called Dr. Nozette and arranged to meet him at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington, where the agent said he worked for the Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency. Dr. Nozette replied, “Good. Happy to be of assistance,” according to the statement of facts. The scientist told the agent, “I thought I was working for you already.”

UPDATE: A reader, Shmuel pointed out a nuance I missed in my original post.  Nozette was trying to spy for Israel, but actually he was caught by a counter-intelligence sting before he did so.  However, it is also noted in the Times report that Nozette already served as a paid consultant to Israeli Aerospace Industries.  Apparently the work he did for them was, in his mind, little different that what he expected to do for the “Mossad” agent who approached.  So one has to ask whether Nozette was already betraying U.S. secrets even before he was caught.

Eilat Terror Fashlah

Thursday, September 1st, 2011

In idiomatic Hebrew, fashlah (which I presume derives from Arabic as so many of the most colorful phrases in Hebrew do) means a major screw-up.  It appears that there was a fashlah of catastrophic proportions regarding the Eilat terror attack.  I’ve written here before about the internecine battle that broke out after the attack between the Shabak and the IDF over who deserved blame for it.  Shabak claimed that it had offered a highly specific threat warning to the IDF about the date, time, location, and personnel involved in the assault.  The agency even claimed the IDF refused to believe them when they said the attack would happen in daylight.

The IDF in turn downplayed the quality and urgency of the intelligence information it was provided by agency, saying it wasn’t specific enough to allow it to take direct action and prevent the attack.

Ben Caspit of Maariv reopens these wounds (Hebrew) with a report from a senior source claiming that Shabak chief Yoram Cohen was furious when he heard Barak’s excuses after the attack.  It even used the term “exploded” to denote how angry Cohen became.  He had no interest in allowing Barak to make someone else his whipping boy.

Since the role of this blog seems to be to ask questions that Israeli journalists either haven’t thought of, or have thought of but refuse to ask, here’s one offered to me by one of my Israeli correspondents: why didn’t the security forces offer a public warning about a terror attack?  This is a fairly common phenomenon in Israel by which they announce a terror threat, where they expect the threat to originate and what the target might be, if they know.  The fact that there was no threat indicates a huge fashla.  If they had done so those eight Israelis might still be alive.

Why won’t you hear this question asked by Israeli journalists?  Because it would open a huge can of worms that they rather not approach. Because the Israeli public doesn’t like reproaching the security forces after such incidents.  Especially since the IDF, with its killing of some of the terrorists and its revenge attacks against Gaza, appears to have proven to the public that it addressed the problem satisfactorily. Israelis can only stomach so much outrage at their security forces and they usually reserve it for major catastrophes like wars (Lebanon, Gaza, etc).  When ‘only’ eight Israelis ‘and enough of the bad guys were killed, then its easier to sweep it under the rug.

But they haven’t.  Apologies for being a broken record, but no one except two Israeli bloggers and I have asked the $64,000 Question: where are the terrorists Israel killed?  Who are they?  Where were they from?  What documents or other identifying materials did they carry with them?  As I’ve written here before, this information is always released by Israel immediately after such an attack because it allows Israel to pin blame squarely on the Palestinians for tragedies.  The fact that none of this has happened tells me that it’s unlikely any Gazans were among the attackers, and makes it more likely that the perpetrators and authors of the crime were Sinai militants of Egyptian origin.

Avi Issacharoff tried to rake me over the coals in a recent Haaretz article about this subject calling my reporting “off the wall.”  In the process, he managed to distort or misread the two claims he made about what I wrote (eg., I never called the Gaza attack “a diversion” and never declared it a war crime).  He was probably sore at me because I’d earlier called his reporting on the attack “stenography.”  At any rate, I wrote to the reporter and asked him when he was going to ask the IDF where the bodies were, and why the press was offered no access to any information about them.

Wikileaks: IDF Intel Chief Regales U.S. Congress Member, Embassy Staff With Plans for Targeted Assassinations

Wednesday, August 31st, 2011

In case anyone wants an idea of how damaging the Wikileaks cables can be to U.S. interests, they have only to read the one I posted about last night in which Rep. Robert Wexler and two senior U.S. embassy representatives were regaled by IDF intelligence chief, Amos Yadlin, with the army’s plans to liquidate Hamas leaders through targeted assassinations:

Hamas’ control of Gaza provides an opportunity. Since the terrorists are now the government, Israel knows which terrorist is sitting in what office and where their homes are. They have come out of hiding and into the open, so the IDF can identify and find them. Yadlin warned that if the shelling of Israeli communities from Gaza continues, Israel can “use this card” against Hamas. It will “change the paradigm,” he concluded.

S) Comment. While Yadlin did not use the phrase “targeted assassinations,” it was clear from the context that he is advocating this approach…

robert wexler & bibi netanyahu

Robert Wexler with Israel's leading peace activist

Perhaps someone should be asking Bob Wexler, now the president of the Abraham Center for Middle East Peace, and Secretary Clinton whether it’s their policy to sit peacefully while foreign military officers discuss actions which might violate international law and be considered war crimes?  Oh I forgot, we do the same thing to Pakistanis and Afghans.  I guess we don’t have a problem with the practice unless it’s our own personnel who are targeted.

Wexler, by the way, was Obama’s main squeeze in the Jewish community during the last election campaign. I attended the first J Street national conference and heard Wexler give one of the snooziest speeches I’ve heard in years. Amazing how people can drone on and say nothing in the process. Wexler’s current boss is S. Daniel Abraham, he of Slimfast wealth and fame. One of Abraham’s claims to fame is that he stuffed shoeboxes full of cash into the hands of Ehud Olmert during his stays at 5-star New York hotels. We learned all this thanks to the escapades of Rabbi Morris Talansky, Olmert’s U.S. bag man.

You can tell how much a contribution Wexler is making to Middle East peace given this photo of him cuddling with Bibi Netanyahu.

I found this fascinating tidbit in today’s NY Times story on the recent Wikileaks cable dump:

Representative Candice S. Miller, Republican of Michigan, issued a statement saying, “The latest release of stolen American secrets by the organization WikiLeaks once again proves that they are a terrorist operation.”

Now that’s interesting: since when is it an act of terrorism to reveal that U.S. elected officials and State Department officials sat and listened primly while an IDF general told them it planned to engage in acts of terror against the Hamas leadership?  Methinks Rep. Miller ought to look in the mirror if she wants to see the faces of those who do nothing when told about planned acts of terror.

Wikileaks: IDF Intelligence Chief Boasts Assassinating Hamas Leaders Will ‘Change Paradigm’ Two Weeks Before Cast Lead

Tuesday, August 30th, 2011

Former U.S Rep. Robert Wexler may be a liberal pro-Israel sycophant, but thank God he visited IDF intelligence chief two weeks before Operation Cast Lead began along with a U.S. embassy staffer.  Otherwise, we wouldn’t have this rich portrait of Israeli thinking just prior to the Israeli assault on Gaza.  The cable was written on December 8, 2008 and the war commenced on December 27th.  In the cable, Amos Yadlin‘s comments are paraphrased:

Yadlin…advocates taking a “much tougher” approach to Gaza.

Hamas’ control of Gaza provides an opportunity. Since the terrorists are now the government, Israel knows which terrorist is sitting in what office and where their homes are. They have come out of hiding and into the open, so the IDF can identify and find them. Yadlin warned that if the shelling of Israeli communities from Gaza continues, Israel can “use this card” against Hamas. It will “change the paradigm,” he concluded.

While Yadlin did not use the phrase “targeted assassinations,” it was clear from the context that he is advocating this approach to countering the threat from Hamas.

It should be remembered that Israel did assassinate several of Hamas’ top political leaders and cabinet members during the massacre along with 1,100 civilians, among them 300 children. But funny thing, it didn’t “change the paradigm.”  I also find it astonishing that an IDF general briefing a U.S. Congress member accompanied by a U.S. embassy representative would boast, even implicitly, that it plans to assassinate Hamas leaders.  That apparently didn’t ring any alarm bells for that good liberal Zionist, Rep. Wexler.  I guess there are good assassinations and bad ones.  Bad: Kennedy brothers, MLK.  Good: anyone from Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, Syria, etc.

What seems strange to me is that Yadlin candidly informs Wexler that the Palestinians are only fourth on Israel’s threat index behind Iran, Syria and Hezbollah. If that’s the case, and I have no reason to doubt it, then why was it dragged into a war with its fourth most dangerous threat? To me, this indicates that Israel has no strategic thinking. It allows itself to be pushed and pulled by whatever is the most pressing threat of the moment. A rocket falls in Sderot? This is the existential threat of the day and must be addressed as if all Israel depended on eliminating it.

The IDF intelligence chief also betrays typical Israeli thinking by warning that the conflict cannot be resolved by directly addressing the major issues through final status negotiations:

If the parties attempt to move straight to resolving the conflict, the attempt will collapse and result in violence as in the start of the Second Intifada after the 2000 Camp David summit.

I’ve always thought of this argument as some sort of weird magical thinking. There is an assumption that the highest priority for life in the Middle East must be avoiding violence at all costs, rather than resolving the dispute between the two peoples so that there is no longer any reason for violence.

Wexler, who led Jewish outreach on behalf of the Obama campaign, left Congress afterward and now heads the Abraham Fund. You can get an idea of Wexler’s hopelessly tepid views in this cable by nothing that he clearly favors Bibi Netanyahu’s “economic” approach to “resolving” the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, an approach I’ve skewered here before. This is a bastion of the American Jewish liberal Zionist leadership.

Abusisi to Shabak: I Left Gaza Because Hamas Threatened Me and My Children

Thursday, August 11th, 2011

Israeli journalists applied to the district court hearing the Dirar Abusisi case for release of his interrogation transcripts. The court did so today and the Israeli media have publisehd a largely stenographic and lurid account of Abusisi’s supposed rocket engineering prowess in expanding the range and accuracy of Hamas’ “world-class” rocket/missile technology. The material is a more explicit version of the indictment which also claimed he’d founded a Hamas version of West Point in order to improve the tactics and strategy of its terror mission.  But there is almost nothing (more on that later) that is new here and not found in the earlier indictment about which I blogged.

All of the interrogation material published, as far as I’m concerned, is garbage. As I’ve reported here, there is no record that Abusisi took any military engineering course in Ukraine and the professors Shabak claim he studied with either didn’t exist, were misidentified, or didn’t teach the courses necessary for him to learn this. He was a civil engineer, not a military engineer and there is almost no evidence that any of his expertise in running a medium-sized power plant could transfer to the realm of rocket technology.

abusisi alleged rocket drawing

Caption: 'Rocket, I never saw the details, this is a conclusion only.' Alleged drawing by Abusisi created for his interrogators about his rocket designs

Further, the Ynet version of the story (a truncated English version) features a drawing of a rocket supposedly penned by Abusisi with an Arabic caption translated into Hebrew (presumably by a Shabak Arabist).  The crude drawing which looks more like a children’s sword than a rocket says:

Missile: I never saw its details, so this is purely a conclusion.

Think about what this means: Hamas’ supposed rocket engineer, who commanded the entire technological planning for this element of Hamas’ military strategy against Israel never saw the actual “details,” by which I presume he means the rocket itself.  So he draws what the rocket he supposedly designed would look like, if he had actually seen those details in physical form.  Is it at all credible that a rocket engineer never sees the rocket he’s designed?  He merely sits at a computer downloading supposed calculations and equations and presents the results of his web research to someone in Hamas who then goes out and builds the actual rocket without the designer being involved?  Sorry, I just don’t buy it.

If this interrogation protocol is to be believed the major source of information and research for his rocket-building was the internet.  If that is so, then one can understand why Hamas’ rocket technology is so abysmal.  Where are the supposed terror masterminds from Syria, Hezbollah and Iran pumping tens of millions into upgrading Hamas’ weapons technology?  Why aren’t they providing the on-site training to Abusisi, rather than having the poor soul troll the internet looking for a rocket payload?

In fact, on the Fresh discussion forum, Tal Inbar, who describes himself as an expert on military aerospace technology and senior researcher at the Fisher Institute, responds to the Ynet account of Abusisi’s internet forays into rocket design with the following scornful comment:

These passages underscore how unfortunate it was for Israel to tear this Palestinian Werner von Braun away from his research for his Hamas brethren.

In other words, if this is the extent of Hamas rocket program then better to have continued to let the blind lead the blind.

Many may ask why Abusisi offered these details to Shabak.  Well, when you’re sitting there you have to tell ‘em something.  We know that Shabak employs torture against terror suspects, especially high value ones like Abusisi (more on why he was such a high value target later).  In fact, the accused’s lawyer, Tal Linoy explicitly said (Hebrew) that this information was extracted by Israeli intelligence goons under torture.  Further, Abusisi’s family says that Dirar himself told Shabak a deliberately false story in order to satisfy their needs to justify their own claims that they captured a major Hamas terror leader.

There is one extremely important new development in this story which no one (except Abusisi and Shabak) knew previously.  That is, that Abusisi allegedly told his interrogators that he sought to stop working for Hamas and that he received a explicit threat against his own life and that of his children.  And that when he wrote a letter to Mohammed Dief, Hamas’ chief military operative, asking to be relieved of his responsibilities helping design weapons, he received no answer.

This is what motivated Abusisi to leave Gaza.  Not the previous explanation he and his family offered claiming conditions there after Operation Cast Lead were so bad that he needed to leave for the sake of his family.  In truth, he did need to leave for the sake of his family, but for an entirely different reason.  He had crossed Hamas.  Imagine someone’s a loyal lieutenant in Tony Soprano’s “crew” and decides he’s had enough and wants a real life.  The consigliere is not going to look terribly kindly on such a person.  In fact, he might plot to do such a turncoat real harm.

The only question is what the nature of Abusisi’s involvement with Hamas’ military wing actually was.  There are two possibilities: either he had no involvement and when approached wanted nothing to do with it; or he had already engaged in some way with Hamas and performed weapons-related work for them and then rejected further involvement.  There is no way on God’s earth that Abusisi was as key a figure as Shabak is trying to make him out to be.  It may be possible that he had done the equivalent of running a few license plates through the police computer (in TV crime shows, that’s always how the Mafia begins to recruit a future corrupt cop) for Hamas.  But I highly doubt his involvement was much deeper than that.

Now, how would this Hamas consigliere react once he found out that the engineer on whom he had pinned such high hopes had turned and run from Gaza escaping through a tunnel to Egypt and later flying on to Jordan and Ukraine?  You might want revenge.  And how would you get it?  You might put out word to Shabak that a high-value Hamas weapons engineer had fled Gaza and was on his way to Ukraine.  You might convey to your informant that Abusisi was Hamas’ chief rocket engineer, that he was responsible for all technological developments, innovation and improvement in rocket design.

All that would be a pretty nice brew to present to Israel and would certainly piqué the interest of its intelligence services.  But what would be the icing on the cake?  What would Hamas have that Israel wants more than anything in the world?  I’m half tempted not to answer my own question and offer readers guesses in the comment thread below.  But I can’t do that.  So here goes: Gilad Shalit.  You’ll recall that several Israeli military-intelligence reporters claimed after he was first kidnapped that Abusisi was nabbed because he would be the key to liberating Shalit.

So if Hamas really wanted to ‘do the dirty’ on Abusisi, they’d tell Shabak that the man knew Shalit’s whereabouts.  That is the only thing that would make Israel move heaven and earth to kidnap him on a train in Ukraine and forcibly transfer him to an Israeli prison.  Extraordinary rendition is a rare tactic for Israeli intelligence.  They usually prefer to kill, rather than kidnap.  Such a kidnapping is terribly messy and the repercussions from it are felt for years to come in lawsuits, complaints to international human rights bodies, etc.  But if Israel felt Abusisi could lead them to Shalit then it all would be worth it to them.

Of course, everything Hamas passed on to Israel would be lies, or almost all of it.  Yes, perhaps Abusisi did perform some tasks for Hamas.  That part would be true.  But all the rest would be lies.  And the purpose of this extraordinary hoax would be to teach all current and future collaborators with Hamas that if they ever think they can abandon the organization and flee, this will be their reward: a couple of decades in a ratty Israeli prison compliments of the boys in the Izzeldin Brigades.

Of secondary pleasure to Hamas would be faking out Israeli intelligence and getting them to buy this tissue of lies.  Dief and his comrades would read the headlines blaring in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem about Abusisi being the key to finding Shalit and the mastermind of Hamas’ rocket program and they would laugh themselves silly.

As for the Shabak, they’ve been had.  But what can they do?  Can they descend from the tree limb onto which they perched themselves so precariously?  No.  One thing Israeli intelligence will NEVER do is admit a mistake.  They won’t even admit a mistake when they kill one of their own as they did in Operation Bren, let alone when they kidnap a Palestinian in error.  And after all, how much is a Palestinian’s life worth to Shabak, anyway?  It’s a paltry price to pay to maintain face and honor; to put Abusisi away for a few decades in order to maintain the charade that his kidnapping was an important achievement in the war against Hamas terror.  When what it really was was a bollixed intelligence operation in which they’d been duped by Hamas, which was seeking pure revenge against someone it viewed as a traitor for abandoning the armed struggle.

Regarding my claim that the Israeli reporting on this story is largely stenography–in all the stories I’ve read (Haaretz and Ynet) there is a 100% acceptance of Abusisi’s alleged statements as a confession of guilt.  There is no investigative research attempting to determine whether the claims made about Abusisi’s involvement are credible.  There is no statement from Abusisi or his attorney rebutting the charges (except in Maariv).  It’s really a set up, vanity reporting on behalf of Israeli intelligence services.  This is, I’m afraid, the level of quality one learns to expect of Israeli journalism when it comes to stories on this subject.  When it comes to debunking Shabak, very few have the guts to do it.  Far safer to merely regurgitate what is offered like a dutiful momma bird offering worms to her babies.

The coming weeks will bring a major foreign news documentary about Abusisi’s case.  More on that as the broadcast date approaches.

Israeli Intelligence Leaks Alleged Syrian Memo Claiming Government Support for Nakba Day Protests

Wednesday, June 15th, 2011

A former high ranking Israeli government source revealed to me that Israeli intelligence leaked to a pro-Israel British tabloid blogger an alleged Syrian government document claiming that the Syrian government organized the bus convoys which brought demonstrators to the Syria-Israel armistice line on Nakba Day.  Demonstrations on that day were met with murderous IDF fire killing 14 individuals.

Michael Weiss, the Telegraph’s pro-Israel blogger known for his neocon views, apparently lied when he claimed the government document was “leaked by the governor of al-Quneitra.”  Any government official who leaked such a document would be jobless in a heartbeat, if not dead.  In truth, my source says Weiss received the document from Israeli intelligence, which has been spreading rumors through the online hasbara community that the government organized the protests in order to distract from the severe instability it faced from democracy protests.  Why did Weiss engage in such a prevarication?  Clearly to conceal his true source.  Though it’s conceivable that Israeli intelligence stole or otherwise secured the alleged memo from the governor of the province.

The Israeli media is dutifully reporting the story as if it was halacha l’Moshe mi’Sinai (‘God’s law from Sinai’).  But no one appears to asking themselves how Weiss got this scoop and whose interest it would be to pass it to him?  This way Israel distracts from its own murder of unarmed Syrian-Palestinians and leaves no fingerprints on the evidence.

I am in the midst of having Arabic speakers authenticate the translation offered by Weiss to determine whether it’s accurate.  Here is an excerpt:

…Security, military, and contingent units in the province, Ain-el-Tina and the old al-Qunaitera are hereby ordered to grant permission of passage to all twenty vehicles (47 passenger capacity) with the attached plate numbers that are scheduled to arrive at ten in the morning on Sunday May 15, 2011 without being questioned or stopped until it reaches or frontier defense locations.

Permission is hereby granted allowing approaching crowds to cross the cease fire line (with Israel) towards the occupied Majdal-Shamms, and to further allow them to engage physically with each other in front of United Nations agents and offices. Furthermore, there is no objection if a few shots are fired in the air.

Captain Samer Shahin from the military intelligence division is hereby appointed to the leadership of the group assigned to break-in and infiltrate deep into the occupied Syrian Golan Heights with a specified pathway to avoid land mines.

It is essential to ensure that no one carries military identification or a weapon as they enter with a strict emphasis on the peaceful and spontaneous nature of the protest.

Though my Israeli source concedes that the document is likely genuine, there are aspects of it that smell “off” to me.  First, why would a Syrian intelligence officer say protesters must not carry weapons, and then say that a few shots may even be fired?  Unless, possibly he was saying that Syrian security forces could fire shots pretending to try to stop the protests from proceeding–though in the videos I have seen I saw no such security personnel in evidence.

Second, why would the official say that protesters should “infiltrate deep into the Syrian-occupied Golan Heights.”  If you were Syrian and you viewed Israel’s Golan territory as sovereign Syrian land, you simply wouldn’t call a protest crossing the armistice line an “infiltration.”

The Mossad has, in the past, been known to leak falsified documents from Middle Eastern nations.  In fact, it leaked fabricated Iranian government memos alleging work on nuclear triggering devices to another British paper, the Times, several years ago.  It also leaked this story of alleged Syrian-Hezbollah war perparations to a Kuwaiti paper.

Michael Weiss is affiliated with two hawkish pro-Israel groups in Britain, the Henry Jackson Society (Jackson was an anti-Soviet hawk Democrat and one of the U.S. Senate’s most ardent pro-Israel supporters) and a pro-Israel media advocacy group, Just Journalism.  It appears to be modeled on a number of such groups like CAMERA, MEMRI, The Israel Project, and Palestine Media Watch.  It would make perfect sense for Israeli intelligence to exploit a willing asset like Weiss for its purposes, and indicates that the line between journalism and intelligence is a very thin one at times.

UPDATE: Michael Weiss writes to demand a retraction based upon the fact that he’s now changed his story and the source wasn’t the governor of Quneitra as he earlier claimed, but another unnamed Syrian who received it from the “office of the governor of Quneitra:”

I’m afraid you’ve got this wrong. My source was not a member of Israeli intelligence. I don’t know who you’re talking to, but it might have paid to have ringed me up to ask before you accused me, in print, of lying.

I told the Washington Times that my source was, in fact, a Syrian, not in the current government but in a position to authenticate state documents.

Apparently, the fact that he told the Washington Times something makes it the absolute truth.  Note that the Times “authenticated” the document by turning to the “Syria specialist” for the neo-con Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.  That’s pretty ironclad to me.

I replied to Weiss that I’d publish a correction sometime after he can get his story straight about who his real source was.

And one thing I’m not understanding is what would be the motivation of a Syrian opponent of the Assad regime furnishing a Syrian government document that would embarrass both the Syrian regime and the Palestinian cause and advance the interests of the Israeli government?  And why would this alleged Syrian choose a pro-Israel journalistic martinet to do it?  That’s a bit obscure to me.  Not to mention it hasn’t seemed to have crossed Weiss’ mind that if his source is Syrian that they could indeed be working for Israeli intelligence.  My source would be in a position to know this.  Weiss wouldn’t be.

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