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Ben Heine

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Mohammad Said Kalash, "Offering Reconciliation" exhibit (photo: Ilan Amihai)

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Punch and Judy/Pinchas and Jamila

Avi Katz

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David Grossman

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Eldrige Street shul

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Dove

Ben Heine

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Hoda Jamal

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Israeli and Palestinian boys

from documentary, Promises

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Cat in the Hat

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Daylight through the Wall

Banksy: graffiti art on Separation Wall

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Maurice Sendak's Brundibar set

New Victory Theater (photo: Nan Melville/NYT)

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Daniel Barenboim, West-Eastern Divan Orchestra

Palestinian-Israeli musical ensemble (photo: Kerstin Joensson/AP)

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Great Day on Eldrige Street

N.Y.'s klezmer greats celebrate shul rededication (photo: Leo Sorel)

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Joint Appeal for Peace

(Avi Katz)

Joint Appeal for Peace

Ketubah, Ancona, Italy (1772)

(Jewish Theological Seminary library)

Ancona ketubah

Posts Tagged ‘ehud-olmert’

Quartet at Loggerheads Over Disagreement on Peace Negotiations

Thursday, September 22nd, 2011

Whatever you may say about the Palestinian plan to apply for statehood at the UN, you must concede it has overturned just about everyone’s apple cart of consensus and expectations.  Apparently, it has caused a deep rift within the Quartet itself.  That body arrogated to itself the responsibility for encouraging both sides to return to the negotiating table.  During better days, the members seemed to be generally on the same page, though their individual national interests and agenda diverged greatly.  But with the Palestine’s aggressive campaign this week, those diverging interests have been highlighted.  Indeed, according to a NY Times report, the Quartet is on the verge of total disarray, with the Russians presumably taking a very different approach than Europeans and the U.S.:

Representatives of the so-called quartet — the United States, the United Nations, the European Union and Russia — were still trying late Thursday to reach an agreement on a statement about moving peace negotiations forward, intended to counterbalance the controversial proposal for United Nations membership that Mr. Abbas has vowed to present. The future of the Quartet could be at risk, some diplomats suggested, with the Americans and the Europeans, close to an agreement, ready to abandon the other two members and issue a statement by themselves.

I hope the Russians hold fast.  I’m deeply suspicious of any statement supported by the U.S. or even the Europeans, who seem much more attuned to the needs of this Israeli government than those of the Palestinians.

There simply can be no agreement unless all parties hammer Netanyahu hard for his intransigence and foot-dragging.  Right now, none of the parties seems prepared to do that.  So getting both sides back to the table is a pipe dream, Quartet or no Quartet.

The U.S., its allies, and the NY Times have developed a narrative which labels the Palestinians as obstacles to a peace settlement.  They call Mahmoud Abbas “Hamlet” for his supposed dithering in the face of the “blandishments” offered to him in return for Palestinians’ acquiescence in a peace deal.  The latest volley, is a shameful op-ed by Ehud Olmert (he of the Slimfast boxes full of cash transferred to him during his stay at posh Manhattan hotels, compliments of his Diet King friend, S. Daniel Abraham) in which he claims he offered Abbas a state with territory “equivalent” to the size of pre-67 West Bank and Gaza.  This is the “deal” that Olmert and the Times views as too good to refuse, which Abbas somehow refused (imagine the ungratefulness).  What Olmert left out, and you can fill in by reading the Palestine Papers, is that the disgraced former prime minister’s offer (no mention of the serial bribery charges against Olmert in the credits for his NY Times op-ed) included a measly 5,000 refugees allowed to return to Israel, out of 400,000 who might reasonably be expected to wish to do so according to the Geneva Accords.  These 5,000 would return not on the basis of any legitimate claim under international law, but “on a humanitarian basis,” whatever that means.  Not to mention that Olmert’s territorial offer wasn’t even equal to what was offered to Arafat in Camp David.

Whatever failings the Palestinians and their leaders may have, it is not them that is the obstacle.  Offer them something real, something legitimate and they will respond.  Offering them gornisht as has so far been the case, and you will merit a blank stare (something like the one on Abbas’s face as he listened to Obama’s abominable UN speech yesterday), and rightfully so.

Even Bill Clinton, who deserves some measure of blame for the failure of past peace initiatives, has gotten religion.  At his Global Initiative today in New York, he placed blame solely on Netanyahu.  The ex-president’s perspective is interesting:

“The Israelis always wanted two things that, once it turned out they had…didn’t seem so appealing to Mr. Netanyahu,” Clinton said, adding that Israel wanted “to believe they had a partner for peace in a Palestinian government, and there’s no question — and the Netanyahu government has said — that this is the finest Palestinian government they’ve ever had in the West Bank.”

Furthermore…Israel was also on the verge of being recognized by the Arabs, adding that the “king of Saudi Arabia started lining up all the Arab countries to say to the Israelis, ‘if you work it out with the Palestinians … we will give you immediately not only recognition but a political, economic, and security partnership.”

This is huge…. It’s a heck of a deal,” Clinton said, adding: “That’s what happened. Every American needs to know this. That’s how we got to where we are.”

“The real cynics believe that the Netanyahu’s government’s continued call for negotiations…and such means that he’s just not going to give up the West Bank,” he added.

Though Bill Clinton’s shepherding of the Middle East peace process was far from perfect, Obama and the NY Times editorial writers should pay a lot closer attention to Bill Clinton’s views than those of Dennis Ross.  This mess is Bibi’s, with Ross as his enabler.  Unfortunately, the two have dragged the current U.S. president into the mess as well.

Even Tom Friedman’s Ready to Dump Bibi Down Drain

Sunday, September 18th, 2011

You know things are bad when one of Israel’s most influential apologists throws in the towel and practically concedes defeat.  I don’t believe I’ve ever heard Tom Friedman use these words before:

I’VE never been more worried about Israel’s future. The crumbling of key pillars of Israel’s security — the peace with Egypt, the stability of Syria and the friendship of Turkey and Jordan — coupled with the most diplomatically inept and strategically incompetent government in Israel’s history have put Israel in a very dangerous situation.

On every possible diplomatic front, Friedman concedes not just that Bibi has made a mess of things, but that the situation is hopeless and irretrievable.  That’s about as low as someone of his impeccable pro-Israel credentials can go.  Here is how he characterizes Bibi’s “strategy,” such as it is:

Mr. Netanyahu has a strategy: Do nothing vis-à-vis the Palestinians or Turkey that will require him to go against his base, compromise his ideology or antagonize his key coalition partner, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, an extreme right-winger. Then, call on the U.S. to stop Iran’s nuclear program and help Israel out of every pickle, but make sure that President Obama can’t ask for anything in return — like halting Israeli settlements — by mobilizing Republicans in Congress to box in Obama and by encouraging Jewish leaders to suggest that Obama is hostile to Israel and is losing the Jewish vote. And meanwhile, get the Israel lobby to hammer anyone in the administration or Congress who says aloud that maybe Bibi has made some mistakes, not just Barack. There, who says Mr. Netanyahu doesn’t have a strategy?

Friedman, who knows the pro-Israel lobby well and undoubtedly at times shares much in common with it, analyzes very persuasively the damaging impact that it has on political discourse here in this country and for Israel:

…The powerful pro-Israel lobby in an election season can force the administration to defend Israel at the U.N., even when it knows Israel is pursuing policies not in its own interest or America’s.

He also quotes this persuasive critique by Aluf Benn, Haaretz’s new managing editor:

“The years-long diplomatic effort to integrate Israel as an accepted neighbor in the Middle East collapsed this week…The region is spewing out the Jewish state, which is increasingly shutting itself off behind fortified walls, under a leadership that refuses any change, movement or reform … Netanyahu demonstrated utter passivity in the face of the dramatic changes in the region, and allowed his rivals to seize the initiative and set the agenda.”

Friedman also notes a fascinating account of the failure of the Israel-Turkey deal over the Mavi Marmara offered by Nahum Barnea:

…The two sides agreed that Israel would apologize only for “operational mistakes” and the Turks would agree to not raise legal claims. Bibi then undercut his own lawyers and rejected the deal…

This, of course, is perfectly in character for Bibi.  He flies by the seat of his pants, decides he must reject a carefully crafted compromise for domestic political considerations, and refuses to consider the long-term implications not just for relations with Turkey, but for Israel’s status in the entire region.  The result is an utter disaster externally, while Bibi sits golden in terms of the domestic political situation.

Ehud Olmert did precisely the same thing when Turkey had arranged for proximity talks between Syria and Israel which could’ve led to resolution of their half century conflict.  Instead, Olmert decided to go to war with Hamas, believing this would help his domestic political standing far more than a peace deal with Syria.  Olmert too didn’t reckon that the war would turn into an unmitigated disaster, lead to the Goldstone Report, accusations of war crimes, and the long-term fracturing of Israel’s relations with Turkey.

How heedless and heartless these Israeli leaders are.  They remind me of the Pharaoh of old who, when Moses appeals to him to allow the Israelites their freedom, at first concedes; then thinks better as his heart hardens, and ultimately says no.  The end result: Pharaoh and all his army are drowned in the closing waters of the Red Sea.

Is this the type of disaster that will have to happen for Israel to come to its senses?

Friedman puts his faith in the Israeli electorate to do so and elect new leadership:

One can only hope that the Israeli people will recognize this before this government plunges Israel into deeper global isolation and drags America along with it.

I’m afraid we are far beyond that point.  Besides, Tzipi Livni will only mean changing the names on the office door.  She won’t change attitudes or policies fundamentally. Not to mention that if anything, the Israel electorate is going to the right rather than the center.  Recent polls show Kadima hemmhoraging support to Labor which, for some odd reason is getting a new lease of life.  I’m afraid that if anything, the future shines much brighter for Avigdor Lieberman than Tzipi Livni.  So no, looking for an electoral solution to this problem is not in the cards.  It requires, rather, international intervention.  Israel has become Serbia.  It rampages through the region like a bull in a china shop leaving in its wake death and disaster.  It must be stopped.  And there is only one way to do it.  Impose a settlement.

Of course, Barack Obama, frightened of his own shadow as he is, and in thrall to his Aipac-Svengali Dennis Ross, will not lift a finger to this end.  Which means that either the EU or other international bodies must have the courage of their convictions or this will drag on for years longer with thousands more corpses piled on the funeral prye.  How many dead will it take till they sit up and take notice?

I do take strong issue with this paragraph in Friedman’s column:

Israel is not responsible …for Turkey’s decision to seek regional leadership by cynically trashing Israel or for the fracturing of the Palestinian national movement between the West Bank and Gaza.

Look Tom, no one but Bibi and Barak (Ehud, that is) are responsible for the Mavi Marmara debacle and everything that followed from it incuding Turkey’s decision to throw Israel into the stocks for refusing the deal worked out.  If Erdogan exploited Israel’s missteps for his nation’s political interests, who gave him the opening to do so?  No, sorry, I don’t blame a nation for doing what is in its interests, especially if those interests are articulated in a constructive way, which Erdogan’s are in a regional context.

And as for the fracturing of the Palestinian national movement, certainly Israel is totally at fault for that mess as well.  First, Israel and the U.S. encouraged Abbas to mount a coup d’etat, which Hamas pre-empted.  Had there been no coup attempt, there still would be a unity government in power.  No, Israel wanted a Palestinian government controlled by Fatah or by no one.  It got instead the mess it has now inherited.  Again, no one’s fault but its own.

Sorry Tom, you get a B+ on this one.  You couldn’t help but be dragged down a bit by your inherent pro-Israel inclinations.

September Surprise: Israeli Attack on Iran?

Tuesday, July 5th, 2011
panetta with obama

With specter of willing president looming, will new Defense Secretary Panetta abandon pragmatism of predecessor and support Iran attack?

A retired journalist who covered the intelligence beat, and with extensive senior intelligence sources, reports to me that Israel is planning to attack Iran before the September UN meeting at which Palestinian statehood will be discussed and possibly approved.  He wrote to me some weeks ago:

…Some U.S. intelligence officials think that such a surprise [attack] on Iran could possibly take place in…September when [Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman] Mullen retires. It would [be] political war with its object to divert attention from Palestine.

…Senior US intelligence officials are saying that just recently a big US military force has been conducting large contingency planning drills in preparation for an intervention if Israel attacks Iran. Planning for a U.S. intervention is very far advanced.

…But perhaps the chief thing that counts here is that senior members of the US intelligence are resisting such notions with all the force that they can.

More recently, he sent this:

…The news is dismaying. Israel is planning a surgical strike against Iran.  I’ve been talking to former senior agency officials and officials in military intelligence. Not only is [it] “very far along” in planning for a regional war, the Obama administration has signed off on it.

It will  happen soon, before September…This is no drill.

If this is right, the timing of the attack couldn’t be more propitious for Israel, as it will certainly either derail entirely, or at the least delay the matter.  It would also further reinforce the conviction of many that the Netanyahu government is using the issue of Iran as a pressure valve to deflect world attention from something that is a much higher priority for the current Israeli government: maintaining the Occupation.

To be fair, I find the statement that the U.S. is “planning for a regional war,” and that Obama has “signed off on it” to be overly alarmist.  If the U.S. has signed off on an Israeli attack and possible U.S. support for it, I doubt we’re wishing or willing to instigate a regional war.  Though on the other hand, just about every serious analyst warns that this is what will occur if Israel does attack.

Yesterday, I spoke with a former intelligence analyst who is one of my heroes of the Vietnam era.  He told me that while he believed the U.S. president would not approve in advance an Israeli assault on Iran, the former analyst said the former would not stand in the way of one, as Eisenhower did in 1956 when he found out about it after hostilities began.  Rather than going to the mat to oppose Israel, once he discovered the attack was too far along to stop it, Obama would, the analyst believes, fall into line and participate in whatever supporting role he felt was appropriate.

Given the resounding ‘success’ of, and approval generated by the Bin Laden assassination, I too think it likely Obama would support an Iran attack.  A September attack could complicate the November elections, but if it was deemed successful it would further inoculate the Democrats and ensure success at the polls.

My source did, however, add that he found it unlikely that, in this day and age, Israel would be able to get far enough along operationally for such an attack without the U.S. finding out about it enough in advance to kill it or at least severely crimp Israel’s style.

Turning to Israel, you’ll remember Meir Dagan’s recent public excoriation of Netanyahu and Barak, who he accused of planning to mount a 2010 attack on Iran, which the former Mossad chief foiled when it was brought before a meeting of senior cabinet ministers for approval.  The reason Dagan uncharacterisitcally went public is that he stated that all of the senior military and intelligence figures (himself, Yuval Diskin of Shabak, Gabi Ashkenazi of IDF, and Amos Yadlin of Aman [military intelligence]) who universally opposed war against Iran, are all now gone.  There is a new cast of characters running each of these agencies, each of whom will be outdoing himself to ingratiate his way into the hearts of Barak and Netanyahu.  Which would make it much more likely they would support such an attack.

Believe me, someone like Meir Dagan, a man famous for his silences and hatred of public attention and media interviews, does not open his mouth unless it is important.  Very important.  For this reason alone, I’d say that such an attack is not only possible, but likely.

Further confirmation of the thesis advanced by the former intelligence reporter comes from no less likely a source than Jeffrey Goldberg, who’s known to have a long interest in Israel bombing Iran.  In writing of the reasons behind Meir Dagan’s “going native” on Bibi & Barak, he describes the thinking of Israeli sources who explained Dagan’s motivation:

[They] suggested that Netanyahu wants to change the subject from his difficulties with the Palestinians.  It’s no secret that the prime minister has been outfoxed by the Palestinian leadership lately, and that Israel is desperately trying to stop a Palestinian independence initiative at the United Nations. Netanyahu is capable of great cynicism, and he has made clear that the peace process doesn’t interest him very much.

While a former senior IDF commander and political leader who has served as a past source, refused to confirm this specific story (in order not to expose Israeli operational plans), he did not rule it out.  Further, he did confirm that there is a specific Israeli military contingency for such an attack.  In fact, Maariv’s Ben Caspit, who’s uncharacteristically becoming a bit of a dove regarding the Iran attack scenario, notes it prominently (Hebrew) in this article:

When Bibi Netanyahu became prime minister he received a briefing on the [Iran] military option being planned.  The one [Barak] now claims didn’t exist.  The meeting was prolonged.  Then another was planned.  And another.  Till finally Bibi spent a full 20 hours considering the matter.  And according to an aide, “his eyes sparkled” the whole time.

We know that Ehud Olmert asked George Bush for a green light to attack Iran and that while Cheney pushed for it, Bush ultimately declined.  If Olmert was willing to go to war, why would we doubt that Bibi would too?  Bibi, who casts the Ayatollahs practically as Satan’s demons on earth.  We also know that Bibi is obsessed with Palestinian and world efforts to “delegitimize” Israel.  And that the September UN vote is one of the top threats on this list.  So why would anyone think he’d be too dainty to use Iran to foil Palestinian statehood?  Especially if he was reasonably certain it would redound to his credit (as delusional as such an assumption might be).

Returning to the words of the source quoted at the beginning of this post, where he noted an attack could come after the retirement of Admiral McMullen–the latter has made some statements indicating he’s less than enthusiastic about the prospect of the U.S. supporting an attack on Iran.  Defense Secretary Gates has just retired and before he did he made a very specific statement that he frustrated Dick Cheney’s war camp in their lobbying for war with Iran.  Now, in their (Gates and McMullen’s) stead we will have Leon Panetta and Gen. Martin Dempsey.  One would presume that these newcomers would be much less willing to go out on a limb and be iconoclasts than their predecessors, and more likely to support an Iran attack if the president did.  It’s almost a mirror image of the situation in Israel.  And grounds for fear of what may lie ahead come September.

Robert Gates, America’s Dagan, Prevented U.S. Attack on Iran

Saturday, June 18th, 2011

Robert Gates, preparing to step down from his job as secretary of defense, has spoken for the first time about his severe doubts about the U.S. wars in Iraq & Afghanistan.  Gates is reputed to have also opposed U.S. support for the Libya intervention.

What struck me especially in this article was this statement that could’ve been lifted out of Meir Dagan’s testimony against Israel’s plans to attack Iran:

Mr. Gates was asked to confirm reports of policy duels during the two years before Mr. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney left office, a time in which he was said to have been successful in altering policies or blocking missions that might have escalated into another conflict.

“The only thing I guess I would say to that is: I hope I’ve prevented us from doing some dumb things over the past four and a half years — or maybe dumb is not the right word, but things that were not actually in our interest,” Mr. Gates said.

…Some of the defense secretary’s confidants…confirmed that Mr. Gates prevented provocative, adventurist policies against Iran, in particular, that might have spun into war.

…“I also think that he prevented further adventures, particularly in our relationship with countries like Iran, that could have turned into military intervention had he not become secretary of defense,” said [former U.S. Senator David] Boren, who is now president of the University of Oklahoma. “I think that he stepped us back from a policy of brinkmanship.”

This news makes me believe that the red-light that George Bush gave to Ehud Olmert when he visited Washington asking for permission to attack Iran was due in no small part to the opposition of Gates.  He was one of the sole sane figures in the administration who stood against the cries for war of Cheney and the war camp.  It makes you wonder what might’ve happened if Gates had been defense secretary in 2003 instead of Donald Rumsfeld.

Dagan used almost precisely the same language to describe Bibi Netanyahu’s would-be Iranian adventurism.  He called the idea of an attack on Iran, “dumb.”  And almost the same scenario is portrayed in the Israeli press when Dagan attended a fateful meeting of senior ministers who had the power to authorize war against Iran.  It was the then Mossad chief who almost single-handedly persuaded enough of the ministers to vote No, so that Bibi and Barak’s plans had to be scuttled.

Syria: Talkin’ ‘Bout a Revolution This Time?

Sunday, April 24th, 2011
syrian protest map

NY Times map

News from Syria is grim, with over 100 people killed after Friday prayers in mass protests against the authoritarian rule of Bashar Assad and the forty-year dynasty his family has maintained in Syrian politics.  Another 11 people were killed on Saturday at funerals for those killed on Friday.  NPR news reported on outraged mourners toppling statues of Assad’s father and dynastic founder in various communities and ripping down pictures of the son in acts of defiance that would’ve been unthinkable only a month ago.  Activists were heard on air committing themselves to freedom or death.

Syria, like the earlier burgeoning protests of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen seems to be in a middle phase, in which they have become widespread and perhaps unstoppable, but not yet on such a scale that they can imminently threaten to topple the regime.  The people of Syria, despite the willingness of the security forces to shed blood on a mass scale, have passed the point of fear and self-preservation inhibiting their participation.  They are clearly willing to die for their freedom and in large numbers.  This probably indicates that they will eventually succeed.  The only question becomes how many more need to die before the ruler and his elites get the message that the holiday is over.  And how precisely will this scenario play out.

For Israel and Syria’s other neighbors an added question becomes, who will take over if Assad and his Alawite minority are swept from power?  Will it be a caretaker continuing roughly the same policies, but perhaps with a softer hand?  Or will it be a marked departure, perhaps a true movement toward democracy?  Can this even happen in a society which has known firm control at the hands of the intelligence and security services for decades?

If a democratic force of some kind assumes power in Syria, what will happen to its allegiances with Iran and Hezbollah?  And how will it impact relations with Israel?  Bibi Netnayahu has been crying in his beer about the big bad Arab revolutions on his border which have made his life such a living hell, not knowing whether the Arab leaders Israeli has bought off will stay bought; and what it will take to re-buy them if new Pharaohs assume the throne.  The Israeli PM doesn’t like this Arab democracy thing one bit.  Too messy.  Too out of control.  Too democratic.  Who knows what these Arabs might do if you give them democracy and freedom.  They might toss out the Sinai treaty in Egypt.  They might become even more implacable enemies of Israeli Occupation and supporters of Palestinian freedom.  What a terrible thought.  That may be why Bibi’s demanding from the U.S. ironclad security guarantees in the event of serious (is that an oxymoron?) peace negotiations, that Arab democracy won’t be allowed to spoil Israel’s party (or threaten its security).

It seems a terrible irony that Bibi Netanyahu and Ehud Olmert may yet live to rue the day that they looked coldly on Bashar Assad’s outstretched hand and spurned it.  Imagine that Olmert had the possibility of peace with Syria in his back pocket and instead chose to invade Gaza.  What a terrible waste!  Now, instead of peace Israel gets a big imponderable question mark.  Things could get worse, far worse under a successor.  And if they do, Israel will have only itself to blame for what might have been.

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Al Jazeera Blockbuster: PA Gave Away the Store, Israel Still Wasn’t Interested

Sunday, January 23rd, 2011

erekat bigger jerusalem
Al Jazeera and The Guardian are jointly publishing the summary of a treasure trove of documents revealing the extraordinary extent to which the PA was willing to sacrifice a huge chunk of the Palestinian national patrimony and agenda for the sake of peace. While Israel (and to an extent, the Bush administration) essentially said: “That’s nice. But not enough.”

This will literally knock your socks off.  The documents (linked below in discreet articles) reveal:

The scale of confidential concessions offered by Palestinian negotiators, including on the highly sensitive issue of the right of return of Palestinian refugees.

• How Israeli leaders privately asked for some Arab citizens to be transferred to a new Palestinian state.

• The intimate level of covert co-operation between Israeli security forces and the Palestinian Authority.

• The central role of British intelligence in drawing up a secret plan to crush Hamas in the Palestinian territories.

• How Palestinian Authority (PA) leaders were privately tipped off about Israel’s 2008-9 war in Gaza.

As well as the annexation of all East Jerusalem settlements except Har Homathe Palestine papers show PLO leaders privately suggested swapping part of the flashpoint East Jerusalem Arab neighbourhood of Sheikh Jarrah for land elsewhere.

Most controversially, they also proposed a joint committee to take over the Haram al-Sharif/Temple Mount holy sites in Jerusalem’s Old City – the neuralgic issue that helped sink the Camp David talks in 2000 after Yasser Arafat refused to concede sovereignty around the Dome of the Rock and al-Aqsa mosques.

…The concession in May 2008 by Palestinian leaders [would have] allow[ed] Israel to annex the settlements in East Jerusalem – including Gilo…

abbas hamas

You sure don't, baby. But every other Palestinian and the world now will.

Palestinian negotiators practically bragged to the Israelis about how much they were willing to give up for the sake of peace:

…The chief Palestinian negotiator, Saeb Erekat, as giving Israel “the biggest Yerushalayim [the Hebrew name for Jerusalem] in history”

But nothing was enough for Israel.  It apologetically said it appreciated the Palestinian sacrifice but:

…The offer was rejected out of hand by Israel because it did not include a big settlement near the city Ma’ale Adumim as well as Har Homa and several others deeper in the West Bank, including Ariel. “We do not like this suggestion because it does not meet our demands,” Israel’s then foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, told the Palestinians, “and probably it was not easy for you to think about it, but I really appreciate it“.

Oh and you remember all that hope liberal Zionists (and even me I confess) harbored that Tzipi Livni offered a pragmatic alternative to Bibi and that SHE could and would negotiate a settlement if offered power–all smashed to bits by revelations like this.  Tzipi was no better than Olmert nor Bibi.  She just talked nicer and sounded more reasonable.

Here is the overall summary of the tone of the documents by the Guardian reporters:

The overall impression that emerges from the documents, which stretch from 1999 to 2010, is of the weakness and growing desperation of PA leaders as failure to reach agreement or even halt all settlement temporarily undermines their credibility in relation to their Hamas rivals; the papers also reveal the unyielding confidence of Israeli negotiators and the often dismissive attitude of US politicians towards Palestinian representatives.

So let’s try to assess the meaning of this bombshell.  The PA is toast and this former PLO representative says as much in this Guardian column.  Perhaps it will still retain support in the West Bank, which is its base.  But Fatah leaders were willing to give away the store and get virtually nothing in return.  What’s more, even the huge amount it offered wasn’t enough.  Israel wanted it all.

barak pinocchio

Barak as Pinocchio proclaiming "no partner" (Biderman)

Israel had a partner all along.  But it was the Palestinians who had no partner.  Israel’s motto: “Peace on our terms, or no terms.”  Israel acted as if it had won WWII and could dictate terms to the vanquished foe.  Olmert and Israelis may live to regret that they didn’t make peace on these unbelievably generous terms.

In terms of Palestinian leadership, these papers prove the bankruptcy of the notion that an unelected rump Palestinian entity can negotiate a satisfactory deal on behalf of the Palestinian people.  The Bush administration and Israeli policy to torpedo the 2006 elections and stand in the way of Hamas-Fatah reconciliation has been a disaster.  The only way to find an accomodation acceptable to the majority of Palestinians is with a representative elected body that ratifies such negotiation results.

If Abbas and his cronies had any honor they’d resign en masse and leave Israel to resume full Occupation of the West Bank (or barring that negotiate a real resolution with real Palestinian leaders).  But the current PA leaders are as survival oriented as Bibi.  They show no devotion to Palestinian national ideals just as Bibi et al show little commitment to anything resembling values or principles.  They just want to keep their fingers in the pie.  For Palestinians an increasingly small, miserly one.  For Israelis an increasingly larger and tastier one.

And can you believe that Israel had the temerity to ask the PA to accept forced transfer of Israeli Palestinian citizens to the new Palestinian state, Avigdor Lieberman’s population transfer (aka expulsion) agenda?

The documents are a boon for Hamas, which has always prided itself on steadfastness to the Palestinian national agenda.  Hamas will appear the only Palestinian movement which hasn’t compromised with Israel, the only one which wasn’t willing to sell its people out for a mess of porridge.  Even if you hate Hamas, you will have to admit it comes out of this smelling like a rose.  And who do we have to blame for this?  Bush and Olmert, no one else.

Olmert is shown to be a total liar when he trumpeted claims that he made the Palestinians a generous offer of 92% of Palestine, which they refused.  Actually, it was Olmert who couldn’t or wouldn’t deliver.

The new development augurs poorly for any serious peace efforts by the Obama administration.  You now have an even more intransigent Israeli government in power than the one to which all these concessions were offered.  And you have a PA which will be mortified that it was exposed with its pants down.  Peace talks are dead.  Dead as a doornail.  Bibi wins big time.  He can now go about building, occupying, assassinating and engaging in war with virtually any party he wishes as long as he wishes.  He holds the cards.  The PA and Obama got bupkis.  And how will the other Arab governments in the Middle East react to American diplomacy used so haphazardly and to such little effect?

But perhaps, just perhaps not all is lost.  There are initiatives that will be strengthened by this failure.  All the alternative peacemaking efforts such as BDS will look even more attractive than ever since they are not tarnished by politicians’ dithering and compromises.  But even more important, I think the idea of an imposed settlement looks not only feasible, but perhaps the only hope.  I can foresee the Quartet, EU and UN Security Council devising a settlement with the input, but not veto power, of the parties and imposing it on them along with provisions that offer security to both sides.  It’s becoming clearer and clearer that this is not an option, but rather a necessity.  The last hope.

For those who like inside baseball, who spilled the beans?  Who leaked these documents?  My money says it was one of the members of the Palestinian negotiation support unit (NSU), a special British-funded entity that provided research, analysis and strategic background for the Palestinian side in its negotiations with Israel.  The Guardian says that many members of this unit have quit, growing disaffected by the sheer magnitude of what their bosses were willing to concede while getting little or nothing in return.  One of these individuals would have a strong motive to embarrass the PA negotiators.  Also, it appears that the bifurcated nature of the NSU (working for the PA but funded by Britain) allowed for mixed allegiances not necessarily fully committed to the PA interests.

In effect, the Guardian may’ve inadvertently blown the cover of the leaker with this statement:

The bulk of the documents are records, contemporaneous notes and sections of verbatim transcripts of meetings drawn up by officials of the Palestinian negotiation support unit (NSU), which has been the main technical and legal backup for the Palestinian side in the negotiations.

Read all the Guardian’s Palestine Papers and an overview of all Guardian stories written about the Papers.  Al Jazeera provides a different lens on the same documents.

Carmel Fire Thaws Israeli Relations With Turkey

Friday, December 10th, 2010
mavi marmara victim

Mavi Marmara victim who couldn't be saved

Turkey’s humanitarian gesture of sending firefighting air tankers to help combat the Carmel fire seems to have melted the ice in Turkish-Israeli relations.  Haaretz is reporting that a possible resolution of the Mavi Marmara impasse may be at hand, by which Israel would pay $100,000 to each dead victim’s family and a smaller amount to those wounded.  One of the main sticking points appears to be Israel’s refusal to use the word “apology” and its insistence on the term “regret.”  Israel is also balking at apologizing to the Turkish people and prefers that its statement be addressed in humanitarian terms only to those who were killed or wounded in the incident.

Another intent of the settlement would bar Israel or its citizens from being sued for damages as a result of the attack.

At any rate, if a deal is struck it will mark a major climb-down by Netanyahu from his formerly adamant position that Israel’s actions were entirely defensive and praiseworthy.  It will also mark a major victory for the Turkish prime minister in his international campaign for Israeli accountability for the massacre.  I doubt Israelis will make Bibi pay a price for such a deal.  They will cynically view it as the cost of doing business in terms of Israel’s position on the world stage.

As is typical of Israeli politics, we have the spectacle of disgraced former prime minister and Bibi-enemy, Ehud Olmert denouncing Bibi’s possible deal while holding up to view his own government’s supposedly spotless record of maintaining an impermeable seal on Gaza.  And of course, Avigdor Lieberman considers an agreement akin to selling out Israel’s interests.  Next, we’ll hear Tzipi Livni weigh in with some mindless grandstanding of her own.

Olmert: I Attacked Syrian Reactor, Barak Opposed Me

Sunday, September 19th, 2010
Syrian nuclear reactor 2002

Syrian nuclear reactor circa 2002

A fascinating political power struggle is being played out in Israel, between Ehud Olmert and allies and Ehud Barak.  The fight involves Olmert’s political legacy as he faces serious corruption charges which threaten to tarnish or destroy his reputation, and also involves bitter interpersonal and political rivalries among all the parties.  But most fascinating of all is that this enormous battle is happening in the context of Israeli military censorship which is attempting to keep a very irksome genie in its bottle.

A little background: for several years up until its destruction in 2007, Syria was building a nuclear reactor with North Korean assistance.  Those hostile to Iran have also claimed that it was supporting the construction costs.  When Israel discovered the project, a huge battle ensued within the Israeli political-military echelon about what to do.  Ehud Barak, defense minister, opposed attacking the reactor.  Though I’m not privy to his specific arguments or concerns, attacking it would’ve amounted to a huge provocation against Syria, possibly led to reprisals, and torpedoed the Israel-Syria peace talks mediated by Turkey.

Ehud Olmert, then prime minister, wanted to bomb the site and was supported by the chief of staff, Gabi Ashkenazi.  By parting ways with his boss, the defense minister, Ashkanazi, poisoned his relationship with Barak.  Though Israel did end up attacking and destroying the reactor with very little cost in political or military fallout.  It was viewed as an enormous success by a country that had seen its vaunted military deterrence evaporate in the face of failed attack on Lebanon in 2006.  Such success may’ve emboldened Olmert to agree to launch Operation Cast Lead two years later, in a failed attempt to destroy Hamas.

syrian nuclear reactor site

Before and after: after the bombing, Syria razed the entire complex

Until now, Israel has been very careful not to take credit for attacking the Syria site.  It has, much like the cat that swallowed the canary, remained silent while everyone else speculated about the perpetrator.  Syria too has become a willing conspirator by maintaining its own silence (though for radically different reasons).  The internal maneuvering among political camps inside Israel has revealed a secret the nation has hitherto not wanted known.

What makes this case even more interesting is that, as I wrote, the IDF military censor has intervened energetically in the fracas.  Here is a directive it sent to Israeli media outlets today:

The censor asks that any information concerning the battle between Olmert and Barak regarding security matters be submitted for approval.  It is prohibited to report on any political analysis about Olmert’s statements which allude to the attack on the Syrian reactor; even if you attribute such reports to foreign sources.

The censor was responding to this earlier report on Voice of Israel radio:

Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert continues to attack Ehud Barak, also defense minister in his government, saying that he could not write about security subjects in his new book, and that he did not characterize who initiated daring security operations and who frustrated them in a slippery manner.  Our political correspondent explains that this is apparently an allusion to the attack on the Syrian nuclear reactor, perpetrated, according to foreign sources, by Israel.  Olmert spokes at a conference organized by the Geneva Initiative.

CORRECTION: Thanks to the reader who pointed out to me that the headline for the article below clearly indicated that this was a fictional interchange which Melman created.

Further, Gabi Ashkenazi spoke with Haaretz security correspondent Yossi Melman (Hebrew) last month and said:

The real reason Barak can’t stand me is that I opposed him and went with Olmert on several strategic matters about which it’s too early to tell.  I will permit myself to say that it concerns the bombing of an important enemy facility.  Barak opposed it.  But the prime minister and I made the decision to act, against his advice.  And we saved the State of Israel from an even greater threat than the one posed by Iran.

Yediot Achronot is excerpting passages from the new book (Hebrew) in its Yom Kippur supplement.  The autobiography has not yet been published.  If anyone knows the name of the book, let me know.

In a way, it’s not surprising that Olmert should be all but confirming the Israeli attack.  After all, he was the first prime minister to break protocol and admit that Israel had nuclear weapons.  For this, he was roundly chastised by the military censor and others.  It appears that the prospect of selling a lot of books in Israel and selling the rights to an overseas publisher has tempted Olmert once again to open his big mouth (and for which I’m deeply grateful, I might add).  Further, Olmert and Ashkenazi, both of whom left their government posts are sensitive to their future legacies and seeking to burnish them in the eyes of the buying public.

What Olmert doesn’t realize is that if he’d spent more time on peacemaking and less time on warmaking (Lebanon 2006, Syria 2007, Gaza 2009) he’d have assured his legacy for generations.

As I’ve said many times over the past year in which I’ve been reporting about secret Israeli intelligence matters, the IDF censor is yet again trying to walk the horse back into the barn well after it escaped.  In this day and age, you simply cannot exert centralized control over information or military secrets as they are attempting and failing to do.  Especially, when powerful figures are chafing to expose them.

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