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Posts Tagged ‘condi-rice’

Real ‘Birth Pangs of a New Middle East’

Monday, January 31st, 2011

“Birth pangs” of Condi Rice’s “new Middle East” (Beirut airport: 2006)

beirut airport in flames 2006 war

The real birth pangs of a new Middle East (Tahrir Square today):

egyptian protesters
And Israel trembles.

Here, one of Bibi’s typically anonymous cabinet ministers not only speaks condescendingly to Arabs fighting for their freedom, but virtually quotes one of Richard Perle’s more noxious and absurd bon mots, that democracies never start wars:

“We believe that Egypt is going to overcome the current wave of demonstrations, but we have to look to the future,” says the minister in the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu…While it may be more efficient to deal with a strongman in Cairo…and a King in Amman, democracies make better neighbors, “because democracies do not initiate wars,” he says.

“Having said that, I’m not sure the time is right for the Arab region to go through the democratic process,” he adds.

The minister…cites the Gaza Strip as a signal warning of the risk that comes with asking the people what they want. The seaside territory…elected the militant Islamist group Hamas in a 2006 election that had been carried out at the urging of George W. Bush, when the President was casting the invasion of Iraq as a mission to introduce democracy to the Middle East.

All well and good in the long run, according to the official, but Arab societies demand “a longer-term democratization process,” one accompanied by education reforms that would encourage the election of moderates. “You can’t make it with elections, especially in the current situation where radical elements, especially Islamist groups, may exploit the situation,” he says. “It might take a generation or so.”

That sounds like the Likudist view of the entire Israeli-Arab peace process, one explicitly advanced by Avigdor Lieberman among others.  I’ve got something to tell this guy: democracy, or whatever’s happening in Egypt ain’t gonna wait a generation or even a year.  It’s comin’ and comin’ fast.  And it ain’t gonna slow down for anyone least of all a Likud cabinet minister.

Israel, I’m sorry to say, appears almost as much a dinosaur as the strong men who are falling like, well dinosaurs. It is as tone-deaf, as entrenched, as in favor of a failed status quo, and as incapable of reform as any Egyptian or Tunisian tinpot dictator.  For example, this is the headline in a Haaretz story: Israel urges world to curb criticism of Egypt’s Mubarak. What is it about Egypt that Bibi just doesn’t get? Mubarak is finished. The old order is finished. It may be possible for Israel to achieve a satisfactory modus vivendi with whoever takes power, but this nonsense simply won’t due unless Bibi wants to goad Egyptians into hating Israel more than even do now.

There is a bit of unintentional acuity in the statement of an official likely connected to Lieberman’s foreign ministry:

Jordan and Saudi Arabia see the reactions in the West, how everyone is abandoning Mubarak, and this will have very serious implications.”

And isn’t that all to the better? Let kings and potentates tremble. Let them consider their fates and act accordingly. Let them consider whether a failed, cold peace is satisfactory to their people. Or whether the region demands something more and better from the State of Israel.

Palestine Papers: Herzl Suggested Jews Resettle in Uganda, Condi Suggested Palestinians to Argentina

Tuesday, January 25th, 2011
condi rice

Condi: Israel will accept the return of this many Palestinian refugees--the rest...to Argentina

I swear, the longer I watch this Israeli-Palestinian conflict the more the nutty ideas of the past impose themselves on the present.  Many Zionists don’t know or admit that Herzl had no particular romantic affinity for Palestine as the homeland of the Jews.  He thought it could just as easily be Uganda and wrote as much.  Fortunately for him (not so fortunately for Palestinians though), more traditional Jewish Zionists persuaded him that only the real Zion would do as the future homeland.

Now comes word that Condi Rice played a similar card in U.S. negotiations with the Palestinians:

Condoleezza Rice, secretary of state under George Bush, suggested in 2008 Palestinian refugees could be resettled in South America. “Maybe we will be able to find countries that can contribute in kind,” she said. “Chile, Argentina, etc.”

The only thing I can say on Condi’s behalf is that at least her boss was elected (sorta).  What’s Abbas’ excuse?  He’s a leader without a mandate.  Where does he get off accepting the shameful compromise of accepting a total to 10,000 Palestinian refugees resettled in Israel over a ten-year period?  Even the Geneva Initiative foresaw a larger number than that.  Where do they get the unmitigated gall to think that this would be acceptable to the Palestinians?  How did they ever think they could sell this?  Did they think that the U.S. showering Palestinians with billions would assuage the sting of giving up virtually their entire national dream?

Astonishingly, the Palestine Papers also show that Mahmoud Abbas himself accepted the Israeli narrative on the Right of Return:

“On numbers of refugees, it is illogical to ask Israel to take 5 million, or indeed 1 million. That would mean the end of Israel.”

“The end of Israel.”  The very mantra of Bibi Netanyahu in dissing ROR.  And what business should it be of Abbas as erstwhile leader of Palestine to be concerned primarily with the welfare of Israel?  If Israel could take in a million Russian Jews in a short period, it can take in a few hundred thousand (and not a million as Abbas imagines) Palestinian refugees who might insist on returning to Israel over generous financial compensation for their suffering and resettlement within Palestine proper.  This guy has his priorities screwed up and has forgotten, if he ever knew, who he represents.

It is not surprising that during negotiations Israel did everything possible to deny any responsibility for Palestinian refugees (the Nakba of course wasn’t mentioned).  But the utter sophistry of the arguments and the enthusiasm with which even the Bush flunkies advanced them in addition to the Israelis, is shocking.

I find it laughable that the Fatah goons have attacked and taken over Al Jazeera’s Ramallah studio.  Attack the messenger why don’t you instead of the real bane of your existence.  It wasn’t Al Jazeerah who sold out the Palestinian patrimony.  It was their own “leaders.”  If they want to to see the real enemy, take a look in the mirror.

The rogues’ gallery unfortunately now must include Tzipi Livni who, in discussing the issue of the expulsion as a violation of international law said the following pearl:

Livni told Palestinian negotiators in 2007 that she was against international law and insisted that it could not be included in terms of reference for the talks: “I was the minister of justice”, she said. “But I am against law – international law in particular.”

…She made clear that what might have seemed to be a joke was meant…seriously by using the point to argue against international law as one of the terms of reference for the talks and insisting that “Palestinians don’t really need international law”.

Where else but in Israel (and perhaps Zimbabwe and a few other despotic states) could you have a justice minister express overt disdain for the law?

Further, as I wrote yesterday, Livni specifically advanced Avigdor Lieberman’s proposal to forcibly redraw the international boundary so that Israeli Palestinian villages would be expelled from Israel and annexed to Palestine.  Those Israeli citizens expelled from Israel would naturally have no recourse and not be consulted about the forced transfer.  This is refined Kahanism for which Livni should (but won’t be) ashamed.  She can deny it all she wants but the papers don’t lie.

As I wrote yesterday, liberal Zionists have long had a romance with Tzippi as the anti-Bibi.  They believed when she left Likud at Sharon’s behest that she had somehow shed her Irgun family legacy.  They hoped she might turn out to be as pragmatic as Ariel Sharon appeared to become just before his death.  How wrong they were.  And this should lay those illusions to rest.

Even George Mitchell, who I’d preferred to see as the good guy in the Obama administration compared to the blantantly pro-Israel Dennis Ross, conveyed to the Palestinians that Obama was reneging on a major Bush era pledge to the Palestinians.  Condi Rice had affirmed that any agreement would use 1967 borders as a basis for any proposed land swaps.  Mitchell told Erekat that the new administration felt bound by nothing agreed to by Bush, even something as elemental as 1967 borders.

In fact, the lead Palestinian negotiator threatened to tell Israeli TV that its audience should feel proud of its leader’s outmaneuvering of both Abbas and Obama:

Erekat: I am planning to go on Israeli channel 10 to say one thing: congratulations Mr. Netanyahu. You defeated President Obama. You defeated Abu Mazen… if it’s my word against theirs in your Congress and your Senate, I know I do not stand a chance.

In this particular case, Erekat is precisely right.  And Obama has allowed Bibi to make him and Abbas look the fool.  It’s shameful really that it’s come to this due to Obama’s futile policy.  But it has.

The NY Times’ Eytan of Arabia (Ethan Bronner) has weighed in from the Delphic heights with his ‘penetrating analysis,’ as always favorable to Israel.  But frankly I’m shocked that Bernard Avishai, known as a probing critic of the Occupation and Israeli policy, has proven so tone deaf about this particular issue:

“They [the Palestine Papers] focus on Palestinian concessions without presenting the other side of the negotiations. The Palestinians were going to get a great deal for their concessions.

Yes, they were going to get a Bantustan shorn of all land settled by Israel in Jerusalem post-67 short of Har Homa.  The only major West Bank settlement Israel planned to abandon was Kiryat Arba.  Israel would get Maaleh Adumim, French Hill, Gilo, Ramat Shlomo, even parts of Sheikh Jarrah (see proposed map).  Israel planned to ‘console’ the Palestinians for their loss of this land by “bequeathing” them Israeli Palestinian villages whose citizens never wanted to be expelled from Israel in the first place.  It would’ve been a game of three-card Monte.  What was the PA going to get for their trouble?  What major concessions?  A state?  Yes, but what kind of state?  A truly independent state able to function on its own with contiguous territory?  Not so much.

Rice: ‘No Permanent Enemies’

Saturday, September 6th, 2008

While Dick Cheney is in Georgia and the Ukraine jabbing needles in the eye of the Russian bear with promises to both of NATO membership (as if an unpopular lame-duck vice president can remotely deliver on his promise), Condi Rice is playing a different tune in Libya.  For the first time in 55 years, an American secretary of state is visiting that country and its leader:

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice met Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi — once reviled as a “mad dog” by a U.S. president — on Friday on a historic visit which she said proved that Washington had no permanent enemies. Rice’s trip…is intended to end decades of enmity,

Her words were not just meant to be heard by Gaddafi, her interlocutor.  They were also meant to waft 2,000 miles to the east to Persian ears, if they were sharp enough to hear them:

“This demonstrates that the U.S. doesn’t have permanent enemies,” Rice said of her visit.

“It demonstrates that when countries are prepared to make strategic changes in direction, the United States is prepared to respond. Quite frankly I never thought I would be visiting Libya and so it is quite something,” she said.

Clearly, Rice and the realists in the Bush Administration are trying to make Libya a test case for what could happen should Iran moderate its own stance regarding its nuclear program.  She’s sending clear signals that she’s prepared to negotiate an end to the enmity that has ruled the U.S.-Iran relationship since 1979.  One only wishes a U.S. secretary of state had taken this bull by the horns in 2003 when the then-Iranian president had offered to end the stalemate in relations between the two countries.  Sometimes in international relations you can’t go back once you’ve lost the moment.

One also wonders how Condi proposes to persuade the Iranians of her good faith when they hear practically every other day that Israel is planning to take out its nuclear facilities.  Iran looks on Israel as little more than a U.S. client state, so it would be nice if a firmer signal would be sent that Bush had called off the “dogs” and hawks in the IDF who are eager to ride the Persian tiger.

Bush and Israeli Settlement Expansion: Wink-Wink, Nudge-Nudge

Thursday, April 24th, 2008

If you liked Monty Python as much as I, you’ll remember the skit in which a dirty leering character asks his pub mate whether his wife “does it.” The conspiratorial refrain goes: “Wink-wink. Nudge-nudge. Know what I mean, know what I mean?” It’s absolutely hilarious in a knowing, low-down sort of way.

An article in today’s Washington Post which outlines a secret Bush Administration agreement with Ariel Sharon to permit major settlement expansion isn’t as hilarious. But it surely is a dirty low-down trick on the Palestinians whose future territorial integrity it has imperiled:

A letter that President Bush personally delivered to then-Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon four years ago has emerged as a significant obstacle to the president’s efforts to forge a peace deal between the Israelis and Palestinians during his last year in office.

Ehud Olmert, the current Israeli prime minister, said this week that Bush’s letter gave the Jewish state permission to expand the West Bank settlements that it hopes to retain in a final peace deal, even though Bush’s peace plan officially calls for a freeze of Israeli settlements across Palestinian territories on the West Bank. In an interview this week, Sharon’s chief of staff, Dov Weissglas, said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice reaffirmed this understanding in a secret agreement reached between Israel and the United States in the spring of 2005, just before Israel withdrew from Gaza…

Weissglas said that in 2005, when Sharon was poised to remove settlers from Gaza, the Bush administration made a secret agreement — not disclosed to the Palestinians — that Israel could add homes in settlements it expected to keep, as long as the construction was dictated by market demand, not subsidies. He said the agreement was necessary because Sharon needed the support of municipal leaders in the main West Bank settlements…

Weissglas said he then negotiated a “verbal understanding” with deputy national security adviser Elliott Abrams that would permit new construction in those key settlements; Rice and Sharon then approved the Weissglas-Abrams deal. “I do not recall that we had any kind of written formulation,” Weissglas said.

It certainly doesn’t matter that the agreement wasn’t signed, sealed and delivered by the parties. It doesn’t even matter that Condi Rice is denying the agreement existed. What matters is Israeli actions and U.S. reactions. Israel is hell bent on completing the huge Maale Adumim project which will effectively separate East Jerusalem from the rest of the West Bank:

Olmert declared in an interview with the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, published Sunday. “I say this again today: Beitar Illit will be built, Gush Etzion will be built; there will be construction in Pisgat Ze’ev and in the Jewish neighborhoods in Jerusalem,” referring to new settlement expansion plans.

While protesting verbally, Condi & Co. have done nothing to stop them. That’s all that matters. The U.S. is willingly colluding in the theft of Palestinian patrimony.

So how do you look Mahmoud Abbas in the eye as Bush did today and claim you can deliver a peace agreement before you leave office? What credibility do you have? In a way, the article coming out today as Bush met with Abbas is the ultimate slap in the face to the lamest of lame duck presidents.

Of course, we also have to remember that Dov Weisglass (note: I think the Post is misspelling his last name), the Sharon henchman who claims to have negotiated this secret deal, has always had the utmost disdain for the Americans. I wrote a post about a delightfully cynical interview he gave in which he said that he and Sharon had Bush wrapped around their little fingers preventing the possibility of a Palestinian state for years, if ever.

So Weisglass’ interview today serves two functions. It reinforces just how tightly wrapped Bush was around their fingers and makes it that much more difficult for Bush to bring into being that Palestinian state which he and Sharon worked so assiduously to prevent. A truly crafty, devious Machiavellian, Weissglas is.

Thanks to Rupa Shah for bringing this story to my attention.

Condi Begs for Progress on Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations

Sunday, March 30th, 2008

Condi’s back in Israel wheedling and cajoling in her usual fitful, unsuccessful way. In the process of her visit, Tzipi Livni made some darkly (unintentionally) humorous comments:

”The idea is to ease the lives of the Palestinians, to help, as far as we can, in order to improve their lives, to advance and have progress,” she said. ”Like always, the formula is to do whatever we can as long as it doesn’t affect our own security.”

Translation: Like always, the formula is to do whatever we can as long as we don’t have to do anything.

But both Rice and Livni said it was important to make progress on an overall agreement as soon as possible.

”Time is of the essence,” Livni said. ”Stagnation and stalemate is not the Israeli government policy, it doesn’t serve our own interest.’

Time is NEVER of the essence as far as Israel is concerned. Stagnation and stalemate is always the preferred government policy and it does serve their interest if you define such interest as maintaining the status quo of Israeli dominance and Palestinian subjugation.

We’ve also heard this “promise” at least fourteen times before:

Israeli defense officials said they would remove a major West Bank checkpoint and dozens of smaller roadblocks…and grant more permits to Palestinian merchants for access into Israel.

The officials said Israel will take down the military checkpoint controlling movement in and out of the West Bank city of Jericho, which would be the first time residents of the largely quiet city will enjoy unrestricted freedom of movement since violence erupted in 2000.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because there has not yet been an official announcement of the steps.

Translation: officials spoke on condition of anonymity because as soon as Rice leaves they have no intention of honoring their pledge.

Besides, calling Jericho’s a “major checkpoint” is like saying that Spokane is a hotbed of Muslim terror. Jericho is the most peaceful of all Palestinian cities and aside from Israel assaulting the city’s jail to kidnap imprisoned Palestinian militants last year, it has seen very little violence during the conflict. So what kind of sacrifice is it for Israel to remove a checkpoint from Jericho?

Let’s just stop this charade shall we? Neither Condi nor George Bush are going to come remotely close to a peace agreement before he leaves office. It’s just another of his empty, broken promises. We’re so cynical and jaded at this point how can we be disappointed? We never believed him to begin with when he said he would do so. He’s never achieved anything during his presidency, at least not anything constructive like a peace agreement. So why should (or could) he start now?

Vanity Fair’s ‘Gaza Bombshell’

Wednesday, March 5th, 2008

David Rose’s Gaza Bombshell is getting a lot of play in the media and deservedly so. It is an investigative piece that uncovered secret and not so secret government documents authenticating a State Department plot to engineer what Elliot Abrams at the time called a “hard coup” against Hamas in the aftermath of its election victory. Rose also interviewed key players on all sides of the story including defanged neocon officials, Israeli spymasters, Palestinian enforcers, and Hamas officials. It’s a great read. Just hearing the two-faced David Wurmser turn on his former Bush Administration colleagues is worth the price of admission. But candor like this does make you wonder whether sour grapes more than a concern for ‘getting it right’ may be his motivation:

Within the Bush administration, the Palestinian policy set off a furious debate. One of its critics is David Wurmser, the avowed neoconservative, who resigned as Vice President Dick Cheney’s chief Middle East adviser in July 2007, a month after the Gaza coup.

Wurmser accuses the Bush administration of “engaging in a dirty war in an effort to provide a corrupt dictatorship [led by Abbas] with victory.” He believes that Hamas had no intention of taking Gaza until Fatah forced its hand. “It looks to me that what happened wasn’t so much a coup by Hamas but an attempted coup by Fatah that was pre-empted before it could happen,” Wurmser says.

The botched plan has rendered the dream of Middle East peace more remote than ever, but what really galls neocons such as Wurmser is the hypocrisy it exposed. “There is a stunning disconnect between the president’s call for Middle East democracy and this policy,” he says. “It directly contradicts it.”

It’s astonishing that Condi Rice was inveigling Arab governments to pony up the money to fund this Bay of Pigs fiasco in the making because our own Congress rightly resisted providing arms to Fatah for fear they would end up in the wrong hands.  Rose quotes an expert saying that she may not have violated any laws in what she did.  But as the Vanity Fair journalist notes–this thing has Iran contra written all over it.  It has the guns, the shady go-betweens, the dirty money from third countries.  The only thing it doesn’t have is the clueless, Alzheimer’s-ridden president (Reagan) who can’t seem to remember anything about it when asked to testify about the deal.  Instead we have George Bush!

The timing of the publication of this story couldn’t be better as Hamas’ steely resistance to Israeli military might and an international blockade puts it once again in the central spotlight. Rose shows unequivocally that Fatah was hopelessly corrupt and incapable of mounting any serious resistance to Hamas, let alone a coup to eradicate the latter from the political scene.

This should be a lesson for Condi Rice today as she vainly attempts to cobble together a viable Israel-Palestine policy while ignoring an indispensable player, the very same one she tried to overthrow a few years ago. Gaza Bombshell calls into question the Bush Administration’s desperate clinging to a discredited Fatah as it’s ticket to a peaceful resolution of the conflict. If Mahmoud Abbas couldn’t get his own house in order as documented in this article, why will he be any more likely to bring home the bacon (pardon the inapt figure of speech) with a peace agreement?

One thing I don’t understand is why Rose fails to acknowledge that Conflicts Forum reported virtually the same story in January, 2007, Elliot Abram’s Uncivil War–that is fourteen months ago. The only difference is the latter story was based on a report of a meeting Abrams held with Palestinian businessmen and not on the richer trove of documentary evidence Rose dug up. But at least Rose could’ve acknowledged the work that came before him. Would he even be writing this story were it not for Conflicts Forum which, as far as I know, was the first English-language source to write on this?

Israel Pols and Policy Wonks Can Be Stupid Too

Monday, March 3rd, 2008

The N.Y. Times published a good summary of the dwindling policy options available to each of the major players in the Gaza crisis. Though the article doesn’t say this, the only player who comes out on top in all this is Hamas, which again shows it holds many more cards than any other player wishes to acknowledge.

But the portion of the article that stood out in my mind was this vapid observation from Martin Indyk:

Ms. Rice’s…alternative — encouraging Israel to negotiate a cease-fire with Hamas — has pitfalls…because that would further legitimize Hamas, which the United States and Israel consider a terrorist organization.

Martin Indyk, the former United States ambassador to Israel, said such a cease-fire would further undermine Mr. Abbas and make it look like Hamas is the entity with which Israel and the West should be negotiating.

“Excluding them doesn’t work, and including them doesn’t work, either,” Mr. Indyk said. “So what do you do? This is a situation that does not lend itself to a sensible policy.”

They actually pay this guy money to say stupid things like that. And I say this as someone who, while he doesn’t think much of Indyk’s AIPAC roots, generally thinks the guy is fairly sensible in talking about Israel. What does it mean that “including them doesn’t work?” Says who? The fact of the matter is that Hamas has proven that you must include them. Who gives a damn whether it will embarrass Israel or the U.S. or undermine Abbas? Let’s get beyond this shtuyot (as an Israeli would say). Let’s look at what works.

For anyone naive enough to ask why Hamas is showering southern Israel with rockets when it’s so apparently counter-productive in terms of the impact on their Gaza constituents, you only have to look at the political situation. No one wants anything to do with Hamas–despite the fact that 64% of Israelis appear to be much brighter than their woeful leaders and have embraced direct talks with Hamas– so what better way to tweak the world’s nose than by refusing to roll over and play dead as Israel and the U.S. would prefer? With a relatively small number of rockets, Hamas has proven that the road to resolving the conflict goes not just through Ramallah, but through Gaza as well.

I add for the 100th time here that I’m not condoning or defending the rocket attacks which are a clear violation of international law. But with both sides in the wrong on that score it’s hard to say which one is worse.

They pay this guy to be stupid too. But he’s a Bushite and that’s to be expected of them:

Gordon D. Johndroe, a White House spokesman, said late Saturday that the United States wanted to see “an end to violence and all acts of terrorism directed against innocent civilians.” But, he noted, “there is a clear distinction between terrorist rocket attacks that target civilians and action in self defense.”

Why certainly. Killing 70 Palestinians in a day or two with half of them civilians definitely qualified as acting in “self-defense.” Saying, as Matan Vilnai did, you will bring a “holocaust” on the Gazans certainly qualifies as self-defense.

Ehud Olmert seems to have the stupids too:

[He] responded to international criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza, saying that “nobody has the right to preach morality to the State of Israel for taking basic action to defend itself.”

Someone’s got to do it as Olmert and the IDF appear to have taken leave of their senses much as they did during the Lebanon war.  Olmert continued:

Mr. Olmert also seemed to reject the argument by Mr. Abbas that peace talks cannot carry on in the shadow of the events in Gaza. “The more that Hamas is hit, the greater the chances of reaching a diplomatic agreement and peace,” Mr. Olmert said. He added that beyond their public statements, “the Palestinian leadership with whom we are trying to make peace understands this.”

Abbas was so “understanding” of the Israeli position that he broke off all talks with Olmert.  This is a perfect example of knowing next to nothing about your negotiating partner.  How well does this bode for the long-term success of Olmert-Abbas talks?

Someone really ought to point out to Helene Cooper, who wrote the first story linked above, the error in this statement:

So Ms. Rice will try to press surrogates, including Egypt, to lean on Hamas, administration officials say.

How does Egypt become a surrogate for Hamas, which it hates? This again points to the utter bankruptcy of U.S. policy. We think Egypt can help us talk our way out of this mess when Hamas’ ties to the Muslim Brotherhood make it a natural enemy of the Mubarak regime.

And contrary to the above two policy-wonk buffoons, Aaron David Miller thankfully makes perfect sense and talks in plain, simple terms of what needs to be done:

As Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice heads to the region on Monday…she is confronting very few options in achieving President Bush’s stated goal of peace between Israel and a new Palestinian state…

“She’s walking into a buzz saw,” said Aaron David Miller, author of “The Much Too Promised Land: America’s Elusive Search for Arab-Israeli Peace.” “You cannot make peace with half of the Palestinian polity and go to war with the other half.”

“This is beyond her [Rice's] capacity, and beyond even the capacity of a secretary of state like Kissinger or Baker,” said Mr. Miller, who served as a Middle East negotiator for the last three presidents. “This is rooted in a fundamental problem that we haven’t acknowledged: Israel cannot make peace with a divided Palestine.”

Say Amen somebody. But who’s listening?? No one in Washington or Jerusalem that’s for sure.

Annapolis: Getting to Yes

Tuesday, October 16th, 2007

For those of you who’ve been on a desert island for the past few weeks, there’s a Mideast peace conference taking shape scheduled for Annapolis on November 29th. No, no one’s been formally invited. There’s no formal agenda. One key state that was half-invited has said it will be wholly-absent. One uninvited key political faction that dare not mention its name (at least as far as Israel, the U.S. and PA are concerned) has warned that the conference is illegitimate. All we know for sure is that Condi Rice, Ehud Olmert, and Mahmoud Abbas will be spending some hopefully quality time together (joined apparently by some Japanese diplomats who feel they have something important to say on this subject) in Annapolis next month.

It gives me a sense of deja vu for Condi Rice to be shuttling between Mideast capitals trying her best to get to where Bill Clinton was just before Camp David in 2000. She’s having a helluva hard time. That’s because there’s one difference. In 2000, Yaser Arafat didn’t trust us, but didn’t hate us. It’s now 2008 and Mahmoud Abbas doesn’t hate us either. But most of the rest of the world does. It’s pretty tough when you’re occupying two Muslim countries to get the attention of the Arab countries that matter.

After meeting with Condi, Egyptian representatives were sounding a bit more optimistic though they didn’t say why. It’s all a crap shoot really. We hear that Olmert and Abbas are actually grappling with real nitty gritty issues in the run up to Annapolis. If so, this would be a welcome change from the last eight years when Israeli governments did everything BUT grapple with the real underlying issues necessary to make peace. But I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard that Israel is finally ready to do this or the PA, or Fatah or Hamas is finally ready to do that. The proof is in the pudding, not in talking about it.

Two things make me deeply pessimistic about the outcome. First, the U.S. is treating Syria like Typhoid Mary instead of like an integral partner in the peace process. Apparently, Syria is going to be invited to the conference as a member of an Arab League committee but not as one of the key interlocutor countries like Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Just as worrying is that the U.S. continues to pretend that Hamas doesn’t exist. Rice, Olmert and Abbas somehow believe that if there is a peace breakthrough Hamas will just be finessed into going along.

The looming summit has caused the Mideast analysts to go into hyperdrive coming up with policy papers which they hope might influence Bush Administration thinking. And much of it is terrific stuff. But we’ve been there before. Everyone knows where we need to go and how we need to get there. Everyone except the extremists on both sides, that is. Nevertheless, it’s worth highlighting some of the best efforts being made to impact the policy debate.

Jerry Haber of Magnes Zionist informed me about this initiative from what I call the Republican greybeard establishment published in, of all places, the New York Review of Books. This letter to President Bush and Secretary Rice was organized by the US/Middle East Project founded by Brent Scowcroft and Henry Siegman) and the New America Foundation (one of whose senior fellows is Daniel Levy). Other signatories are Nancy Kassebaum, Lee Hamilton, Zbigniew Brezinski, Paul Volcker, Carla Hills, Thomas Pickering and Ted Sorensen. Yes, I know these are all George HW Bush’s friends and not George Jr.’s. Look how much impact the Hamilton-Baker Commission had on U.S. Iraq policy. So how much weight can they muster in the face of the overwhelming power of the Cheneyites? Again, I’m pessimistic. But that doesn’t mean that there still isn’t hope. After all, wouldn’t it be nice to be proven wrong for once?

Here’s the outline of what I call the Greybeard Letter:

* Two states, based on the lines of June 4, 1967, with minor, reciprocal, and agreed-upon modifications as expressed in a 1:1 land swap;

* Jerusalem as home to two capitals, with Jewish neighborhoods falling under Israeli sovereignty and Arab neighborhoods under Palestinian sovereignty;

* Special arrangements for the Old City, providing each side control of its respective holy places and unimpeded access by each community to them;

* A solution to the refugee problem that is consistent with the two-state solution, addresses the Palestinian refugees’ deep sense of injustice, as well as provides them with meaningful financial compensation and resettlement assistance;

* Security mechanisms that address Israeli concerns while respecting Palestinian sovereignty.

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